by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Dec 11, 2021
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports Southwest-San Antonio, Altitude
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Nuggets -1
BetMGM: Spurs -1.5
Caesars: Nuggets -1
Season record
Nuggets: 12-13 (8th place, Western Conference)
Spurs: 9-15 (12th place, Western Conference)
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Nuggets - Spurs preview and analysis
The Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs conclude a two-game home series at AT&T Center on Saturday, and I expect much of the same from the home team.
The Spurs are coming off a 12-point win Thursday against Denver. It was the Spurs' fifth win in seven games and the first time they were favored since Nov. 10 against the Sacramento Kings; San Antonio was just a 1-point favorite and covered that game easily.
Denver was getting two points in the last matchup. The Nuggets have been dealt with a myriad of injuries but are getting key guys back at the right time. Nikola Jokic had a triple double of 22 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists, and Aaron Gordon also had 25 points on 9 of 12 from the floor.
The problem was the Nuggets had no answer against the San Antonio offense; one never really does when the Spurs hit shots at a 52 percent clip and go 15 of 35 (43 percent) from 3-point range. Derrick White led the way with 23 points while Dejounte Murray had 20 points to go with eight rebounds and nine assists in what was a fun day for the San Antonio backcourt.
Where San Antonio excelled in this game was the comparison of bench play. The Spurs got 21 points on 7 of 12 shooting from Lonnie Walker IV, as well as 14 points on 5 of 8 shooting from Drew Eubanks.
The most Denver got from its bench was 12 points from Facundo Campazzo and got 16 points from three other players combined.
Denver seems to be getting healthy at the right time; they had Jokic out for a period of time and have to go the foreseeable future without Michael Porter Jr. They do have Will Barton after missing time as of late, which should help the perimeter scoring deficiencies that are noticeable when he's on the floor.
Prediction
The Nuggets are 5-12 ATS following an ATS loss in their last 17, and normally I'd like Denver to bounce back while on the road. But the Spurs are home and their backcourt will always overpower a banged-up Denver team. Spurs by 14
Betting trends
The Nuggets are 16-20 ATS in their last 36 as a road dog.
The Nuggets are 3-10 ATS this season after a road game.
The Spurs are 9-15 ATS in their last 24 as a home favorite of 6 points or less.
The Spurs are 14-20 ATS in their last 34 off a home win.
Projected starting lineup
Nuggets:
PG: Monte Morris
SG: Bones Hyland
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic
Spurs:
PG: Dejounte Murray
SG: Derrick White
SF: Doug McDermott
PF: Devin Vassell
C: Jakob Poeltl
SF: Doug McDermott
PF: Devin Vassell
C: Jakob Poeltl
Key injuries
Nuggets: Will Barton (day-to-day), Michael Porter Jr. (back, out), Austin Rivers (COVID, out), P.J. Dozier (ACL, out), Jamal Murray (ACL, out)
Spurs: Keldon Johnson (ankle, probable), Zach Collins (foot, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
