Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/11/2024

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Saturday, May 11, 2024

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Stars +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Stars +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Stars +110, Avalanche -130; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Dallas Stars:  52-21-9 (1st place, Central Division)

Colorado Avalanche:  50-25-7 (3rd place, Central Division)

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Dallas Stars:  6-3-1 last 10

Colorado Avalanche:  6-3-1 last 10

The Stars are entering this game with 113 points, a 52-21-9 record overall, and they were 26-10-5 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Colorado Avalanche in their last game, winning that one at home 5-3. Miro Heiskanen led the team in goals scored with 2 while Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell, and Tyler Seguin each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Roope Hintz led the team in assists with 3 while Miro Heiskanen led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Jake Oettinger was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots with 28 saves and a .903 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 298 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 234 goals against them allowing 2.9 goals per game.

The Avalanche are entering this game with 107 points, a 50-25-7 record overall, and they were 31-9-1 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Dallas Stars in their last game, losing that one on the road 5-3. Brandon Duhaime, Valeri Nichushkin, and Joel Kiviranta each scored 1 goal for them in that game. Andrew Cogliano, Ross Colton, Artturi Lehkonen, Josh Manson, and Casey Mittelstadt each led the team in assists with 1 while Artturi Lehkonen led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Alexandar Georgiev was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 4 goals on 30 shots with 26 saves and a .867 save percentage. Their offense has scored 304 goals this season averaging 3.7 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 254 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Avalanche listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Stars and the 3rd seeded Avalanche from the Central Division for Round 2 of the NHL Western Conference playoffs. This series is all tied up 1-1 after the Stars won game 2 of this series on their home ice. The Stars won that game 5-3 and there was always going to be a response there after going up 3-0 in game 1 and blowing that lead to lose in OT. Now the Stars have tied up the series, but they will be on the road in the next 2 games and they have to win a road game now if they want to advance from this series. The Stars were a great road team this season, but the Avalanche were also really good on home ice all year with their 31-9-1 home record, one of the best home records in the entire NHL. They also haven't lost a game there in these playoffs yet, winning both of their home games in the last series. The Stars have an offense that can match this Avs offense, but the staple for the Stars has been their 2 solid goalkeepers and so far in this series, they haven't been up to the challenge of stopping this Avalanche offense. It is not going to be any easier for the Stars here with how good the Avs have been on home ice and they also love to score goals there which will be key in this game with the way the Stars have been giving up goals. The Jets had the same problem in the last series of not being able to stop this Avalanche offense and until that is done, they are going to keep rolling in the playoffs, especially on home ice. The best way to place a bet here is on the Avalanche to win this game. 

Stars Avalanche Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, May 11, 2024 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Avalanche 6 Stars 3.

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Dallas Stars: 12-15 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline off a home win against a division rival. 40-44 (-20.5 units) on the moneyline off a home win. 31-30 (-9.2 units) on the moneyline after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. 8-1 OVER in the second round of the playoffs. 11-6 OVER off a win against a division rival. 27-19 OVER after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals.

Colorado Avalanche: 36-14 (+15.9 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more. 34-19 (+8.1 units) on the moneyline off a road loss. 62-33 (+11.7 units) on the moneyline after 1 or more consecutive losses. 33-20 OVER after one or more consecutive overs. 15-5 OVER after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals. 13-6 OVER after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game.

Dallas Stars:  J. Hakanpaa (D) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. J. Rosburg (D) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

Colorado Avalanche:  J. Drouin (LW) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. L. O'Connor (RW) out for season - Hip. G. Landeskog (LW) out for season - Knee.

“Obviously, I think we can handle those situations better. But I think that the silver lining is that we built 3-0 and 4-0 leads, so we've played some very good hockey for long stretches against them. I thought tonight was better than Game 1. We did most of the things that we wanted to do tonight. Building that lead, the right guys scored, got on the board for us.” - Pete DeBoer after his team’s win against the Avalanche in game 2 of this series on Thursday.

“The second period for me is when it fell apart. Just not sharp. Then we turn around in the third and go to work, and that’s what happens.” - Jared Bednar after his team’s loss against the Stars in game 2 of this series on Thursday.

LW Robertson, Jason

C Hintz, Roope

RW Stankoven, Logan

LD Harley, Thomas

RD Heiskanen, Miro

G Oettinger, Jake

LW Nichushkin, Valeri

C MacKinnon, Nathan

RW Rantanen, Mikko

LD Toews, Devon

RD Makar, Cale

G Georgiev, Alexandar

Points: J. Robertson (80)

Goals: W. Johnston (32)

Assists: J. Robertson (51)

GAA: J. Oettinger (2.72)

Points: N. MacKinnon (140)

Goals: N. MacKinnon (51)

Assists: N. MacKinnon (89)

GAA: J. Annunen (2.25)

Coaches:

Dallas Stars: Peter DeBoer (2nd season)

Colorado Avalanche: Jared Bednar (8th season)