by Hollywood Sports
Monday, Jun 30, 2025For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AKRON: It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of the Zips. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023 and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017 headlined by an upset win in overtime against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress. The two-deep is full of freshmen in what now be a two-year plan for Moorhead.
BOISE STATE: The Broncos were one of the four teams who earned a bye in the opening round of the College Football Playoffs — but they came out flat in the quarterfinals against Penn State and eventually lost by a 31-14 score. All four teams who earned a bye lost in the quarterfinals last season. Was Boise State the victim of an inherent disadvantage in the current system where being recently battle-tested helps in the playoffs? Or were the Broncos overrated and the beneficiary of a soft non-conference schedule before competing in a Group of Five Mountain West Conference? Their biggest accomplishment all season was their 37-34 loss at Oregon. They lost running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL after he rushed for 2601 yards and scored 29 touchdowns. There is talent in the running back room including sixth-year senior transfer from Fresno State, Malik Sherrod. But the wide receiver room appears thin. The even bigger question is junior quarterback Maddum Madsen who benefited from a lot of stacked boxes designed to stop Jeanty last year. He has leadership skills — but he was not a big-time recruit as he ranked as the 125th quarterback in his class according to Phil Steele. On the plus side, the offensive line room is loaded with experience led by four returning starters. Boise State led the nation with 55 sacks last year — but they lost defensive end Ahmed Hassainein to graduation before linebacker Andrew Simpson entered the transfer portal during spring practice. These key losses and a more difficult schedule present a challenge for head coach Spencer Danielson in his second full year leading the program.
BUFFALO: After a 3-9 season in 2023, head coach Maurice Linguist decided to bail the program after three years to become the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama. Pete Lembo was tapped as the new head coach with 15 years of head coaching experience including five seasons in the Mid-American Conference where he compiled a 33-29 record from 2011-2015. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has been an in-demand special teams coordinator. He inherited ten starters and added at least a dozen players in the transfer portal. Lembo simply shattered expectations with the Bulls finishing 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. One of the hallmarks of a good head coach is overseeing continued improvement. Buffalo scored 43 Points-Per-Game in their final four regular season games with an average winning margin of +17 PPG in those victories before beating Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl by a 26-7 score. The biggest question is at quarterback where six players were in competition headlined by Kansas State transfer Ta’Quan Henderson and senior Gunnar Gray who was the backup to C.J. Ogbanna. Henderson began his career at Penn State as a blue-chipper before transferring to Connecticut where he started 10 games in 2023 with 2075 passing yards, a 58% completion percentage, and 12 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. I don’t love six QBs in competition in spring practice since there is limited practice time with the first-teamers — but I don’t know how the time was split up and Lembo deserves the benefit of the doubt. He has immediately changed the culture of this program — and it is telling that they were not hit hard in the transfer portal despite being a Group of Five program that usually gets poached. Instead, the Bulls were clear winners in the transfer portal with several Power Four conference players brought in to compete for jobs. Seven starters are back on offense for a unit that has Power Four conference size. The defense should be a strength with nine starters returning along with 12 of the 17 players who logged-in 200 or more snaps. The pass rush should be very good — but the secondary needs to improve with seven of the top eight contributors back and complemented by a pair of transfers. Many players that Lembo redshirted are back this season — so the chemistry and cohesion of this group should be very good. If Lembo finds the answer at quarterback, then the Bulls should compete for the MAC championship.
CHARLOTTE: After a 3-7 start to the season, the 49ers cut bait from second-year head coach Biff Poggi who had just a 6-16 record with the program. In hindsight, it is easier to question the hire of a former hedge-fund multi-millionaire turned high school football coach at a rich private school who parlayed that gig into a cushy associate head coaching title at the University of Michigan under Jim Harbaugh which was little more than a recruiting angle in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. area. On the other hand, leading this program to respectability is going to be a tough assignment for anyone given the lack of financial commitment other than refurbishing Jerry Richardson Stadium. One can’t blame Poggi for hustling — he over 40 new players in each of his two seasons to attempt to upgrade the talent on the roster. But you can’t establish a winning culture by fiat. Charlotte won their final two games after Poggi was let go — and the powers that be certainly made a “culture” hire by luring Tim Albin from Ohio. The long-time offensive coordinator to Bobcats head coach Frank Solich posted a 33-19 record in his four seasons as the Ohio head coach with three straight 10-win seasons and a Mid-American Conference championship. He is well-versed in getting a team to play better than the sum of the individual parts. But once again, the turnover is massive on both sides of the ball with only three returning starters. Perhaps that is just as well when considering that despite a 4-4 record in conference play, their American Athletic Conference opponents outgained them by -74 net Yards-Per-Game. The offense will likely deploy more spread option schemes with either Duke transfer Grayton Loftis or North Carolina transfer Conner Harrell at quarterback. The defense took a major step back last year with the 49ers ranking 122nd and 116th in the nation by surrendering 35.1 Points-Per-Game and 433.2 total YPG. When the defensive front is allowing their opponents to generate 210.3 rushing YPG, ranking 122nd in the nation, it is difficult to slow down almost any offense. Albin’s track record is great — but he is starting from scratch when it comes to building a culture and establishing some team chemistry.
EAST CAROLINA: Mike Houston was on the hot seat in his sixth year with the program last year after a 2-10 campaign in 2023 — and after a 3-4 start that came after consecutive blowout losses on the road at Charlotte and Army, he was relieved of his duties and defensive coordinator Blake Harrell was installed as the interim head coach. Harrell had first-year offensive coordinator John David Baker get more balanced by running the ball more in the Pirates’ new up-tempo Air Raid offense — and he also promoted former Michigan State signal-caller Katin Houser to be the new starting quarterback. Albeit against a friendlier schedule, East Carolina won their next four games and finished on a 5-1 run under Harrell (and Houser at QB) following a 26-21 victory against North Carolina State in the Military Bowl. In hindsight, the shift to the Air Raid offense was a success as the Pirates rank 24th in the nation by generating 436.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Houser completed 60.8% of his passes and threw for 2006 yards — but he did toss 11 interceptions. In his six starts, East Carolina scored 38.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 481.5 YPG. Four starters are back from that unit. The defense improved dramatically in forcing big plays as they had 22 takeaways last year, ranked 14th in Tackles for Loss per game, and ranked 13th in Red Zone Defense. But the run defense took a step back by allowing 169.8 rushing YPG which ranked 94th in the nation after ranking second in the nation in 2023 in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The defense has only two starters back after losing 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Was the immediate improvement under Harrell simply a reflection of the schedule lightening up — or did it expose a cultural problem in the 5 1/2 years under Houston that was finally resolved?
FRESNO STATE: The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double-overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turnaround the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. Entz’s defensive pedigree and list of coaching mentors strongly suggest that his Bulldogs teams will emphasize a power running game and complementary football. He tapped Nick Benedetto as his defensive coordinator after he oversaw a Northern Illinois defense that held their opponents to 18.5 PPG and 285 Yards-Per-Game. That Huskies defensive did not allow any opponent to gain more than 400 yards against them -- and in their upset win against Notre Dame, they held the Fighting Irish to just 14 points.
HAWAI’I: Fourth-year head coach Timmy Chang returns 15 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. There is optimism within the program with the offense being handed over to redshirt freshman Micah Alejado who threw 125 touchdown passes to just four interceptions in his high school career at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. He has a quick release and is very accurate so he seems to be a great fit for the Rainbow Warriors’ run-and-shoot offense that is aging more Air Raid and RPOs concepts. Chang also brought in Alejado’s quarterbacks coach at Bishop Gorman to serve the same role at Hawai’i as a former player in the program. In his first career start in the last game of the season last year, Alejado threw for 469 yards with five touchdown passes and another 54 rushing yards in a 38-30 victory against a New Mexico team with a questionable defense. The defense returns nine starters and 11 of the 20 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps for second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. Hawai’i gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game last year which was -6.2 fewer PPG than the prior year under the nine-year NFL veteran who served as Rex Ryan’s defensive coordinator for four seasons with the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. If the defense can continue to improve with a handful of transfers entering the program — and Alejandro can meet his high expectations as a Hawai’i native — this team can so places.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: There is tons of turnover for the Gamecocks after head coach Rich Rodriguez left to return to his previous head coaching gig at West Virginia — and 16 players were in the transfer portal during their 30-27 loss against Ohio in the Cure Bowl. Only four starters are back from that team for first-year head coach Charles Kelly who comes over after being the defensive coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado in 2023 before serving as co-defensive coordinator at Auburn. The 57-year-old was on the defensive staff for the 2013 Florida State and 2020 Alabama National Championship teams. He also served as both the offensive and defensive coordinator for this program at different times in the 1990s. His defensive coordinator is Brian Williams who served in the same position for Maryland the last three seasons. The offensive coordinator is Clint Trickett who served on the Georgia Southern staff last year after running the Marshall offense the previous two seasons. The offense is likely to be more balanced than the run-first approach with Rodriguez’s up-tempo zone-read spread offense. Jacksonville State has been a successful program for decades even before winning the Conference USA championship game by a 52-12 score against Western Kentucky last year. The foundation is solid — but Kelly has a challenge as a first-year head coach given all the roster turnover in the offseason.
KENNESAW STATE: The biggest question for the Owls in their first season at the FBS level was whether they could hit the ground running and find immediate success in Conference USA or struggle to make the transition as Sam Houston experienced in their inaugural year at this level. It was definitely the latter as Kennesaw State finished 2-10 and got outgained in conference play by -154 net Yards-Per-Game. Despite being the only head coach in the program’s mere ten seasons of existence — and pulling off a stunning upset victory against Liberty — Brian Bohanan was fired in early November after a double-overtime loss against UTEP. Bohanan was the fall guy for the program perhaps not ready to consistently compete at this level — but the Owls seem to have made a good hire by bringing Jerry Mack. Known as a player's coach, he has experience at several different levels of football. He was the head coach at North Carolina Central from 2014-2017 where he led his team to three MEAC titles. He then was offensive coordinator at Rice before moving to the NFL where he was an assistant coach for the Tennessee Titans for three years before coaching the running backs for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. He is scrapping the run-centric pistol offense that the offense had been operating for the last two years for a more balanced attack. Last year’s starting quarterback Davis Bryson moved to wide receiver. It was a five-man competition at quarterback in the spring with senior dual-threat Dexter Williams II seeming to win the job. He transferred from Georgia Southern where he played five games last year after previously getting recruited and getting some playing time at Indiana. Mack’s focus since taking over last December was improving the talent on the roster and getting bigger on both sides of the ball. There were at least 62 new players on the team including 33 players who were added for spring practice. The offensive line room had 14 new players including two former starters for FBS programs. On defense, eight starters and 13 of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back — and Mack added several former blue-chip recruits and some potential diamonds in the rough from smaller schools. Kennesaw State has yet to establish a competitive NIL program and provide the financial support likely needed in the current college football landscape. But Mack seems to understand the challenge — and his vast experiences could help this team overachieve sooner rather than later.
MIAMI (OH): The RedHawks opened the season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. Chuck Martin returns for his 12th season as the head coach — and his career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faces a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense headlined by Brett Gabbert who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in seven-year senior DeQuan Finn from Baylor to be the starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB was a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish — but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated.
OHIO: The Bobcats enjoyed their third-straight ten-win season after finishing 11-3 last year in a campaign for the ages where they won their first Mid-American Conference championship in 56 years with a dominant 38-3 victory against Miami (OH) before being Jacksonville State by a 30-27 score win the Cure Bowl. What made those accomplishments even more impressive was that perhaps no other team has lost more players in the offseason. Fourth-year head coach Tim Albin lost 34 players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Even more demoralizing for the Ohio faithful is that they have lost 21 players either to the NFL or via transfer to a bigger college football conference. Albin responded by adding 17 transfer players — but nine of these players were from the FCS level or lower so it is fair to say that they are losing this war of predators. But Albin persevered and pulled one of the best coaching jobs in recent history at any program. And now this Ohio program undertakes another massive rebuild — and it starts at the head coaching level after Albin moved east to become the head coach at Charlotte. The Bobcats will have continuity in their coaching staff after Brian Smith was promoted from offensive coordinator to the team’s new head coach. In his fourth year now with the program, he served as head coach for their bowl victory last year. Defensive coordinator John Hauser returns for his second year running the defense — and he has only three starters back after defensive end Bradley Weaver and linebacker Shay Taylor entered the transfer portal. Hauser coached this unit up last year as Ohio surrendered 385 Yards-Per-Game in their first four games before only giving up 257 YPG in their next eight games against fellow MAC rivals. The other side of the ball has more stability with seven starters back led by quarterback Parker Navarro who was under center for all 11 of their victories last year. The dual-threat generated 2423 passing yards and 1143 non-sack rushing yards — and he accounted for 31 touchdowns. Seven of his top nine targets are back in the passing game — and former two-year starting running back Seih Bangura transferred back to the program after playing for Minnesota last year.
SAM HOUSTON: After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler took the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator Phil Longo as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters including senior quarterback Hunter Watson who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quick or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue.
SOUTH FLORIDA: Third-year head coach Alex Golesh is doing a great job with this program after a second-straight 7-6 season that culminated with a victory in a bowl game. The Bulls finished last year with a 41-39 win in five overtimes against San Jose State in the Hawai’i Bowl. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. Now 14 starters return including senior quarterback Byrum Brown who started the first five games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Senior Bryce Archie who went 5-3 as a starter as his replacement is also back. South Florida ranked 33rd in the nation by scoring 32.2 Points-Per-Game last season. The key to this team taking the next step is on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando is a professional coach with past coordinating experience at FAU, Texas, and Houston. He has done a great job in generating havoc as the Bulls ranked sixth in the FBS last year with 7.9 tackles for loss per game and tied for 13th in the nation with 25 takeaways. But South Florida still ranked just 118th in the nation by allowing 436.9 total Yards-Per-Game. This team will be led by 33 seniors on the roster. But they remain a program who have only four victories against teams with a winning record since 2017 — and Golesh has overseen just one win against a team with a winning record in his nine opportunities in his first two seasons as their head coach after coming over from being the offense coordinator at Tennessee.
UNLV: After 28 years of averaging just 3.3 wins per season, the Rebels brought in Barry Odom who had years of experience as a successful head coach at Missouri before three seasons as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. And while Deion Sanders got almost all the attention for his radical attempts to use the transfer portal to quickly transfer the talent base on the roster, Odom used the same formula to immediately transform this UNLV program that went 20-8 in his two seasons in Las Vegas. The Rebels come off a historic 11-3 season where they followed up a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game by beating California in the LA Bowl. With Odom moving on to Purdue (and whiz-kid offensive coordinator Brennan Marion taking his innovative “go-go” offense to Sacramento State where he will be the new head coach), the UNLV administration doubled down on the “let’s find another guy with tons of SEC experience” by persuading Dan Mullen to leave the plushy confides of the ESPN studio seat to become the Rebels next head coach. Living here in Vegas, the program is promoting this hire with the same intensity of happy hours off the strip (meaning the hype level is high). I have a basic and healthy skepticism of guys getting hired off TV. Looking up my old notes on Mullen, I was convinced he got the most out of his talent at Mississippi State in his eight years with the program while continuing his reputation as an innovative offensive mind for running quarterbacks. His four years as the head coach at Florida did not see as many glowing sidebars in the notebook. I had concerns about him winning big games (and his big achievement with the Bulldogs previously was to make them a winning team, albeit one that was not winning conference championships) before there became significant culture concerns in his third and final year with the program before he got fired. He went into the final season on the hot seat because it was an “off the field circus” (quoting my notes) which included being on NCAA probation for recruiting violations. Two years later in my notes, I am suggesting Gators’ head coach Billy Napier should be given some benefit of the doubt because of the talent gap he inherited — and that’s a Mullen issue. Three caveats on Mullen: (1) his career record as a head coach is 103-61; (2) his critical third year happened to land in the 2020 COVID year which disrupted everything; (3) Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr and 49ers’ general manager John Lynch who hired from TY jobs, so the track record is not 100% failure — it’s just close to that. The used-car salesman schtick has worked from the recruiting side of things. With only one starter back on each side of the ball, Mullen has hustled to bring in tons of new players as Odom did — and most of the transfers are coming from Power Four conference programs, with at least 16 of which were originally high-level blue-chippers. But many of these guys are on their third or even fourth team at this point of their career. Maybe Mullen can Slow Horses this thing (or Department Q for fans of the Queen’s Gambit) — and the misfit toys forced to work with each other can finally meet the previously untapped potential that they had once shined. But after being off the sidelines the last four seasons, is Mullen the guy who can bring all these unfamiliar parts and immediately build a culture? After flaming out in Florida? At a program that had been a perpetual doormat before a professional football coach like Odom came in? The best-case scenario is that it took someone like Odom to demonstrate the high-ceiling a football program in Las Vegas has in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal — and a high-profile hire like Mullen is what is needed to take the team to the next level. Then again, I remember when the Raiders hired Jon Gruden off television a few years ago. How did that work out?
WESTERN KENTUCKY: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — but leading the Hilltoppers to a fifth-straight season with eight or more victories may be his most difficult trick to pull off in his career. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. Enduring such turnover makes it so difficult to remain consistently competitive. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. But that group also lost four of their last five games including a 52-12 loss at Jacksonville State in the Conference USA championship game and then a 27-17 loss to James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp left the program for Florida Atlantic. Now the program returned only three starters. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian along with his offensive coordinator Rick Bowie this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. But these new players are mostly inexperienced as well: while returning players account for 50 combined games started, the new players only have 68 combined starts amongst them.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos snapped a two-year bowl drought by facing South Alabama in the Salute to Veterans Bowl but lost by a 30-23 score. Progress seems to taking place for head coach Lance Taylor in his third year with the program. But with a 6-7 record, Western Michigan did suffer their third-straight losing season — and a closer look at their victories does not offer positive context. After starting the season 1-3, the Broncos rattled off four wins in a row against the four bottom teams in the Mid-American Conference. They lost four of their final five games. In their six games against teams that ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, they had a 5-1 record. Is the talent improving for Western Michigan under Taylor’s leadership — or are they simply getting better at being bottom-feeders? The offense returns only four starters but Taylor did bring in two transfers from the Big Ten to bolster the offensive line along with former Michigan blue-chipper Colt Cabana at running back. The defense continues to live and die from the transfer portal with only three starters back vey plenty of new players coming, although most are not from FBS programs. Taylor is also on his third defensive coordinator already after Scott Power was tapped as the next defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Former Notre Dame analyst Chris O’Leary who was the safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers last season takes over running the defense.
WYOMING: Expectations were high last season for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel who was beginning a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. I was worried that the program may have peaked in 2023 after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Sawvel thought his group could contend for the Mountain West Conference championship. That defense returned 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. There was hope Evan Svoboda wearing #17 would evoke memories of Josh Allen with the junior quarterback holding a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He had shown flashes in a close contest against Texas and then in their bowl game. But Wyoming lost their first four games of the season and the opened-up offense employing more spread and up-tempo concepts was a complete flop by ranking just tied for 123rd in the nation by scoring just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The defense took a step back by surrendering 410.6 Yards-Per-Game which was -52.8 net YPG more than in 2023 and ranked 103rd in the FBS. They also ranked 91st by giving up 28.3 PPG which was -6.0 more PPG than the previous season. On the plus side, the Cowboys' defense did lead the nation by holding their opponents to a third down success rate of just 25.9%. Only one starter returns on that side of the ball with second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl losing 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Sawvel attempted to add length and size by bringing in 13 transfers and another three junior college players — but only five of those players come from FBS programs. The plan on offense is to return to the conservative power rushing attack of previous Cowboys teams while giving the keys to the offense to redshirt sophomore Kaden Anderson who started three games in a row late in the season before his year ended with a concussion. He passed for 955 yards with six touchdown passes and only three interceptions in his limited time including passing for 342 yards against New Mexico. Svoboda moves to the tight end room to join future NFL talent, John Michael Gyllenborg, who is also 6’5 and 250 lbs.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AKRON: It has been one small step forward and seemingly two steps back for head coach Joe Moorhead in his fourth year as head coach of the Zips. Akron finished 2-10 in each of the first two seasons under Moorhead, although three of their losses were in overtime in 2023 and they outgained their Mid-American opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 1-7 record. Last year, the Zips improved to 4-8 overall — and they won three games in conference play for the first time since 2017 headlined by an upset win in overtime against Toledo to conclude their season. Once again, a -10 net turnover margin held them back. And now they only return seven starters after losing seven players in the transfer portal to Power Four conference teams. Moorhead worked the portal hard to bring in players — there are 17 new faces on defense after the Zips returned two starters. Former Cal and NC State quarterback Ben Finley returns at quarterback after passing for 2604 yards and posting a 16:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line is improving after Moorhead made that an area of emphasis last year — they cut down their sacks allowed from 46 to 30 last season and the room is getting better. But Akron is ineligible to play in a postseason bowl game after failing to meet NCAA standards for academic progress. The two-deep is full of freshmen in what now be a two-year plan for Moorhead.
BOISE STATE: The Broncos were one of the four teams who earned a bye in the opening round of the College Football Playoffs — but they came out flat in the quarterfinals against Penn State and eventually lost by a 31-14 score. All four teams who earned a bye lost in the quarterfinals last season. Was Boise State the victim of an inherent disadvantage in the current system where being recently battle-tested helps in the playoffs? Or were the Broncos overrated and the beneficiary of a soft non-conference schedule before competing in a Group of Five Mountain West Conference? Their biggest accomplishment all season was their 37-34 loss at Oregon. They lost running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL after he rushed for 2601 yards and scored 29 touchdowns. There is talent in the running back room including sixth-year senior transfer from Fresno State, Malik Sherrod. But the wide receiver room appears thin. The even bigger question is junior quarterback Maddum Madsen who benefited from a lot of stacked boxes designed to stop Jeanty last year. He has leadership skills — but he was not a big-time recruit as he ranked as the 125th quarterback in his class according to Phil Steele. On the plus side, the offensive line room is loaded with experience led by four returning starters. Boise State led the nation with 55 sacks last year — but they lost defensive end Ahmed Hassainein to graduation before linebacker Andrew Simpson entered the transfer portal during spring practice. These key losses and a more difficult schedule present a challenge for head coach Spencer Danielson in his second full year leading the program.
BUFFALO: After a 3-9 season in 2023, head coach Maurice Linguist decided to bail the program after three years to become the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama. Pete Lembo was tapped as the new head coach with 15 years of head coaching experience including five seasons in the Mid-American Conference where he compiled a 33-29 record from 2011-2015. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has been an in-demand special teams coordinator. He inherited ten starters and added at least a dozen players in the transfer portal. Lembo simply shattered expectations with the Bulls finishing 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. One of the hallmarks of a good head coach is overseeing continued improvement. Buffalo scored 43 Points-Per-Game in their final four regular season games with an average winning margin of +17 PPG in those victories before beating Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl by a 26-7 score. The biggest question is at quarterback where six players were in competition headlined by Kansas State transfer Ta’Quan Henderson and senior Gunnar Gray who was the backup to C.J. Ogbanna. Henderson began his career at Penn State as a blue-chipper before transferring to Connecticut where he started 10 games in 2023 with 2075 passing yards, a 58% completion percentage, and 12 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. I don’t love six QBs in competition in spring practice since there is limited practice time with the first-teamers — but I don’t know how the time was split up and Lembo deserves the benefit of the doubt. He has immediately changed the culture of this program — and it is telling that they were not hit hard in the transfer portal despite being a Group of Five program that usually gets poached. Instead, the Bulls were clear winners in the transfer portal with several Power Four conference players brought in to compete for jobs. Seven starters are back on offense for a unit that has Power Four conference size. The defense should be a strength with nine starters returning along with 12 of the 17 players who logged-in 200 or more snaps. The pass rush should be very good — but the secondary needs to improve with seven of the top eight contributors back and complemented by a pair of transfers. Many players that Lembo redshirted are back this season — so the chemistry and cohesion of this group should be very good. If Lembo finds the answer at quarterback, then the Bulls should compete for the MAC championship.
CHARLOTTE: After a 3-7 start to the season, the 49ers cut bait from second-year head coach Biff Poggi who had just a 6-16 record with the program. In hindsight, it is easier to question the hire of a former hedge-fund multi-millionaire turned high school football coach at a rich private school who parlayed that gig into a cushy associate head coaching title at the University of Michigan under Jim Harbaugh which was little more than a recruiting angle in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. area. On the other hand, leading this program to respectability is going to be a tough assignment for anyone given the lack of financial commitment other than refurbishing Jerry Richardson Stadium. One can’t blame Poggi for hustling — he over 40 new players in each of his two seasons to attempt to upgrade the talent on the roster. But you can’t establish a winning culture by fiat. Charlotte won their final two games after Poggi was let go — and the powers that be certainly made a “culture” hire by luring Tim Albin from Ohio. The long-time offensive coordinator to Bobcats head coach Frank Solich posted a 33-19 record in his four seasons as the Ohio head coach with three straight 10-win seasons and a Mid-American Conference championship. He is well-versed in getting a team to play better than the sum of the individual parts. But once again, the turnover is massive on both sides of the ball with only three returning starters. Perhaps that is just as well when considering that despite a 4-4 record in conference play, their American Athletic Conference opponents outgained them by -74 net Yards-Per-Game. The offense will likely deploy more spread option schemes with either Duke transfer Grayton Loftis or North Carolina transfer Conner Harrell at quarterback. The defense took a major step back last year with the 49ers ranking 122nd and 116th in the nation by surrendering 35.1 Points-Per-Game and 433.2 total YPG. When the defensive front is allowing their opponents to generate 210.3 rushing YPG, ranking 122nd in the nation, it is difficult to slow down almost any offense. Albin’s track record is great — but he is starting from scratch when it comes to building a culture and establishing some team chemistry.
EAST CAROLINA: Mike Houston was on the hot seat in his sixth year with the program last year after a 2-10 campaign in 2023 — and after a 3-4 start that came after consecutive blowout losses on the road at Charlotte and Army, he was relieved of his duties and defensive coordinator Blake Harrell was installed as the interim head coach. Harrell had first-year offensive coordinator John David Baker get more balanced by running the ball more in the Pirates’ new up-tempo Air Raid offense — and he also promoted former Michigan State signal-caller Katin Houser to be the new starting quarterback. Albeit against a friendlier schedule, East Carolina won their next four games and finished on a 5-1 run under Harrell (and Houser at QB) following a 26-21 victory against North Carolina State in the Military Bowl. In hindsight, the shift to the Air Raid offense was a success as the Pirates rank 24th in the nation by generating 436.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Houser completed 60.8% of his passes and threw for 2006 yards — but he did toss 11 interceptions. In his six starts, East Carolina scored 38.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 481.5 YPG. Four starters are back from that unit. The defense improved dramatically in forcing big plays as they had 22 takeaways last year, ranked 14th in Tackles for Loss per game, and ranked 13th in Red Zone Defense. But the run defense took a step back by allowing 169.8 rushing YPG which ranked 94th in the nation after ranking second in the nation in 2023 in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The defense has only two starters back after losing 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Was the immediate improvement under Harrell simply a reflection of the schedule lightening up — or did it expose a cultural problem in the 5 1/2 years under Houston that was finally resolved?
FRESNO STATE: The Bulldogs suffered their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark last year after losing in double-overtime against Northern Illinois by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. They played that game without 15 of their regulars including quarterback Mikey Keene. It was a snakebitten season that started in mid-June when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down because of health reasons and was replaced by defensive coordinator Tim Skipper on an interim basis. After scoring at least 30 Points-Per-Game in six straight seasons, Fresno State’s 26.1 PPG scoring average was their lowest since 2016. In comes first-year head coach Matt Entz who won two national championships as the head coach at North Dakota State for five seasons before helping to turnaround the defense at USC last year as their linebackers coach. Nine starters are back from last year’s group — and Entz has brought in more than 20 transfers including quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who has thrown 8814 passing yards as a three-year starter at Temple and Rice. Entz’s defensive pedigree and list of coaching mentors strongly suggest that his Bulldogs teams will emphasize a power running game and complementary football. He tapped Nick Benedetto as his defensive coordinator after he oversaw a Northern Illinois defense that held their opponents to 18.5 PPG and 285 Yards-Per-Game. That Huskies defensive did not allow any opponent to gain more than 400 yards against them -- and in their upset win against Notre Dame, they held the Fighting Irish to just 14 points.
HAWAI’I: Fourth-year head coach Timmy Chang returns 15 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. There is optimism within the program with the offense being handed over to redshirt freshman Micah Alejado who threw 125 touchdown passes to just four interceptions in his high school career at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. He has a quick release and is very accurate so he seems to be a great fit for the Rainbow Warriors’ run-and-shoot offense that is aging more Air Raid and RPOs concepts. Chang also brought in Alejado’s quarterbacks coach at Bishop Gorman to serve the same role at Hawai’i as a former player in the program. In his first career start in the last game of the season last year, Alejado threw for 469 yards with five touchdown passes and another 54 rushing yards in a 38-30 victory against a New Mexico team with a questionable defense. The defense returns nine starters and 11 of the 20 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps for second-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. Hawai’i gave up 26.0 Points-Per-Game last year which was -6.2 fewer PPG than the prior year under the nine-year NFL veteran who served as Rex Ryan’s defensive coordinator for four seasons with the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. If the defense can continue to improve with a handful of transfers entering the program — and Alejandro can meet his high expectations as a Hawai’i native — this team can so places.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: There is tons of turnover for the Gamecocks after head coach Rich Rodriguez left to return to his previous head coaching gig at West Virginia — and 16 players were in the transfer portal during their 30-27 loss against Ohio in the Cure Bowl. Only four starters are back from that team for first-year head coach Charles Kelly who comes over after being the defensive coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado in 2023 before serving as co-defensive coordinator at Auburn. The 57-year-old was on the defensive staff for the 2013 Florida State and 2020 Alabama National Championship teams. He also served as both the offensive and defensive coordinator for this program at different times in the 1990s. His defensive coordinator is Brian Williams who served in the same position for Maryland the last three seasons. The offensive coordinator is Clint Trickett who served on the Georgia Southern staff last year after running the Marshall offense the previous two seasons. The offense is likely to be more balanced than the run-first approach with Rodriguez’s up-tempo zone-read spread offense. Jacksonville State has been a successful program for decades even before winning the Conference USA championship game by a 52-12 score against Western Kentucky last year. The foundation is solid — but Kelly has a challenge as a first-year head coach given all the roster turnover in the offseason.
KENNESAW STATE: The biggest question for the Owls in their first season at the FBS level was whether they could hit the ground running and find immediate success in Conference USA or struggle to make the transition as Sam Houston experienced in their inaugural year at this level. It was definitely the latter as Kennesaw State finished 2-10 and got outgained in conference play by -154 net Yards-Per-Game. Despite being the only head coach in the program’s mere ten seasons of existence — and pulling off a stunning upset victory against Liberty — Brian Bohanan was fired in early November after a double-overtime loss against UTEP. Bohanan was the fall guy for the program perhaps not ready to consistently compete at this level — but the Owls seem to have made a good hire by bringing Jerry Mack. Known as a player's coach, he has experience at several different levels of football. He was the head coach at North Carolina Central from 2014-2017 where he led his team to three MEAC titles. He then was offensive coordinator at Rice before moving to the NFL where he was an assistant coach for the Tennessee Titans for three years before coaching the running backs for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. He is scrapping the run-centric pistol offense that the offense had been operating for the last two years for a more balanced attack. Last year’s starting quarterback Davis Bryson moved to wide receiver. It was a five-man competition at quarterback in the spring with senior dual-threat Dexter Williams II seeming to win the job. He transferred from Georgia Southern where he played five games last year after previously getting recruited and getting some playing time at Indiana. Mack’s focus since taking over last December was improving the talent on the roster and getting bigger on both sides of the ball. There were at least 62 new players on the team including 33 players who were added for spring practice. The offensive line room had 14 new players including two former starters for FBS programs. On defense, eight starters and 13 of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back — and Mack added several former blue-chip recruits and some potential diamonds in the rough from smaller schools. Kennesaw State has yet to establish a competitive NIL program and provide the financial support likely needed in the current college football landscape. But Mack seems to understand the challenge — and his vast experiences could help this team overachieve sooner rather than later.
MIAMI (OH): The RedHawks opened the season by losing four of their first five games — but they rattled off seven straight victories in conference play with an average winning margin of +20.4 Points-Per-Game before losing to Ohio in Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-3 score. They bounced back by then beating Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl by a 43-17 score. Chuck Martin returns for his 12th season as the head coach — and his career 49-18 record in the MAC is the best mark in the conference during that span. The Miami (OH) coaching staff faces a big challenge this year with all 11 starters gone on offense headlined by Brett Gabbert who has been the team’s starting quarterback since 2019! Martin brought in seven-year senior DeQuan Finn from Baylor to be the starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB was a previous three-year starter at Toledo. Martin brought in a handful of wide receiver transfers from Power Four conference programs — but the state and cohesion of a brand-new offensive line will be a big question. The defense has five starters back from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG — and Martin brought in three transfers to bolster the depth of this group. The RedHawks lost plenty of talent that made the All-Conference team which may lower the ceiling regarding what this team can accomplish — but the consistency and culture that Martin has established should not be underestimated.
OHIO: The Bobcats enjoyed their third-straight ten-win season after finishing 11-3 last year in a campaign for the ages where they won their first Mid-American Conference championship in 56 years with a dominant 38-3 victory against Miami (OH) before being Jacksonville State by a 30-27 score win the Cure Bowl. What made those accomplishments even more impressive was that perhaps no other team has lost more players in the offseason. Fourth-year head coach Tim Albin lost 34 players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Even more demoralizing for the Ohio faithful is that they have lost 21 players either to the NFL or via transfer to a bigger college football conference. Albin responded by adding 17 transfer players — but nine of these players were from the FCS level or lower so it is fair to say that they are losing this war of predators. But Albin persevered and pulled one of the best coaching jobs in recent history at any program. And now this Ohio program undertakes another massive rebuild — and it starts at the head coaching level after Albin moved east to become the head coach at Charlotte. The Bobcats will have continuity in their coaching staff after Brian Smith was promoted from offensive coordinator to the team’s new head coach. In his fourth year now with the program, he served as head coach for their bowl victory last year. Defensive coordinator John Hauser returns for his second year running the defense — and he has only three starters back after defensive end Bradley Weaver and linebacker Shay Taylor entered the transfer portal. Hauser coached this unit up last year as Ohio surrendered 385 Yards-Per-Game in their first four games before only giving up 257 YPG in their next eight games against fellow MAC rivals. The other side of the ball has more stability with seven starters back led by quarterback Parker Navarro who was under center for all 11 of their victories last year. The dual-threat generated 2423 passing yards and 1143 non-sack rushing yards — and he accounted for 31 touchdowns. Seven of his top nine targets are back in the passing game — and former two-year starting running back Seih Bangura transferred back to the program after playing for Minnesota last year.
SAM HOUSTON: After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler took the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator Phil Longo as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters including senior quarterback Hunter Watson who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quick or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue.
SOUTH FLORIDA: Third-year head coach Alex Golesh is doing a great job with this program after a second-straight 7-6 season that culminated with a victory in a bowl game. The Bulls finished last year with a 41-39 win in five overtimes against San Jose State in the Hawai’i Bowl. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. Now 14 starters return including senior quarterback Byrum Brown who started the first five games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Senior Bryce Archie who went 5-3 as a starter as his replacement is also back. South Florida ranked 33rd in the nation by scoring 32.2 Points-Per-Game last season. The key to this team taking the next step is on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando is a professional coach with past coordinating experience at FAU, Texas, and Houston. He has done a great job in generating havoc as the Bulls ranked sixth in the FBS last year with 7.9 tackles for loss per game and tied for 13th in the nation with 25 takeaways. But South Florida still ranked just 118th in the nation by allowing 436.9 total Yards-Per-Game. This team will be led by 33 seniors on the roster. But they remain a program who have only four victories against teams with a winning record since 2017 — and Golesh has overseen just one win against a team with a winning record in his nine opportunities in his first two seasons as their head coach after coming over from being the offense coordinator at Tennessee.
UNLV: After 28 years of averaging just 3.3 wins per season, the Rebels brought in Barry Odom who had years of experience as a successful head coach at Missouri before three seasons as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. And while Deion Sanders got almost all the attention for his radical attempts to use the transfer portal to quickly transfer the talent base on the roster, Odom used the same formula to immediately transform this UNLV program that went 20-8 in his two seasons in Las Vegas. The Rebels come off a historic 11-3 season where they followed up a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game by beating California in the LA Bowl. With Odom moving on to Purdue (and whiz-kid offensive coordinator Brennan Marion taking his innovative “go-go” offense to Sacramento State where he will be the new head coach), the UNLV administration doubled down on the “let’s find another guy with tons of SEC experience” by persuading Dan Mullen to leave the plushy confides of the ESPN studio seat to become the Rebels next head coach. Living here in Vegas, the program is promoting this hire with the same intensity of happy hours off the strip (meaning the hype level is high). I have a basic and healthy skepticism of guys getting hired off TV. Looking up my old notes on Mullen, I was convinced he got the most out of his talent at Mississippi State in his eight years with the program while continuing his reputation as an innovative offensive mind for running quarterbacks. His four years as the head coach at Florida did not see as many glowing sidebars in the notebook. I had concerns about him winning big games (and his big achievement with the Bulldogs previously was to make them a winning team, albeit one that was not winning conference championships) before there became significant culture concerns in his third and final year with the program before he got fired. He went into the final season on the hot seat because it was an “off the field circus” (quoting my notes) which included being on NCAA probation for recruiting violations. Two years later in my notes, I am suggesting Gators’ head coach Billy Napier should be given some benefit of the doubt because of the talent gap he inherited — and that’s a Mullen issue. Three caveats on Mullen: (1) his career record as a head coach is 103-61; (2) his critical third year happened to land in the 2020 COVID year which disrupted everything; (3) Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr and 49ers’ general manager John Lynch who hired from TY jobs, so the track record is not 100% failure — it’s just close to that. The used-car salesman schtick has worked from the recruiting side of things. With only one starter back on each side of the ball, Mullen has hustled to bring in tons of new players as Odom did — and most of the transfers are coming from Power Four conference programs, with at least 16 of which were originally high-level blue-chippers. But many of these guys are on their third or even fourth team at this point of their career. Maybe Mullen can Slow Horses this thing (or Department Q for fans of the Queen’s Gambit) — and the misfit toys forced to work with each other can finally meet the previously untapped potential that they had once shined. But after being off the sidelines the last four seasons, is Mullen the guy who can bring all these unfamiliar parts and immediately build a culture? After flaming out in Florida? At a program that had been a perpetual doormat before a professional football coach like Odom came in? The best-case scenario is that it took someone like Odom to demonstrate the high-ceiling a football program in Las Vegas has in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal — and a high-profile hire like Mullen is what is needed to take the team to the next level. Then again, I remember when the Raiders hired Jon Gruden off television a few years ago. How did that work out?
WESTERN KENTUCKY: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — but leading the Hilltoppers to a fifth-straight season with eight or more victories may be his most difficult trick to pull off in his career. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. Enduring such turnover makes it so difficult to remain consistently competitive. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. But that group also lost four of their last five games including a 52-12 loss at Jacksonville State in the Conference USA championship game and then a 27-17 loss to James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp left the program for Florida Atlantic. Now the program returned only three starters. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian along with his offensive coordinator Rick Bowie this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. But these new players are mostly inexperienced as well: while returning players account for 50 combined games started, the new players only have 68 combined starts amongst them.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos snapped a two-year bowl drought by facing South Alabama in the Salute to Veterans Bowl but lost by a 30-23 score. Progress seems to taking place for head coach Lance Taylor in his third year with the program. But with a 6-7 record, Western Michigan did suffer their third-straight losing season — and a closer look at their victories does not offer positive context. After starting the season 1-3, the Broncos rattled off four wins in a row against the four bottom teams in the Mid-American Conference. They lost four of their final five games. In their six games against teams that ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, they had a 5-1 record. Is the talent improving for Western Michigan under Taylor’s leadership — or are they simply getting better at being bottom-feeders? The offense returns only four starters but Taylor did bring in two transfers from the Big Ten to bolster the offensive line along with former Michigan blue-chipper Colt Cabana at running back. The defense continues to live and die from the transfer portal with only three starters back vey plenty of new players coming, although most are not from FBS programs. Taylor is also on his third defensive coordinator already after Scott Power was tapped as the next defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Former Notre Dame analyst Chris O’Leary who was the safeties coach for the Los Angeles Chargers last season takes over running the defense.
WYOMING: Expectations were high last season for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel who was beginning a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. I was worried that the program may have peaked in 2023 after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Sawvel thought his group could contend for the Mountain West Conference championship. That defense returned 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. There was hope Evan Svoboda wearing #17 would evoke memories of Josh Allen with the junior quarterback holding a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He had shown flashes in a close contest against Texas and then in their bowl game. But Wyoming lost their first four games of the season and the opened-up offense employing more spread and up-tempo concepts was a complete flop by ranking just tied for 123rd in the nation by scoring just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The defense took a step back by surrendering 410.6 Yards-Per-Game which was -52.8 net YPG more than in 2023 and ranked 103rd in the FBS. They also ranked 91st by giving up 28.3 PPG which was -6.0 more PPG than the previous season. On the plus side, the Cowboys' defense did lead the nation by holding their opponents to a third down success rate of just 25.9%. Only one starter returns on that side of the ball with second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl losing 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Sawvel attempted to add length and size by bringing in 13 transfers and another three junior college players — but only five of those players come from FBS programs. The plan on offense is to return to the conservative power rushing attack of previous Cowboys teams while giving the keys to the offense to redshirt sophomore Kaden Anderson who started three games in a row late in the season before his year ended with a concussion. He passed for 955 yards with six touchdown passes and only three interceptions in his limited time including passing for 342 yards against New Mexico. Svoboda moves to the tight end room to join future NFL talent, John Michael Gyllenborg, who is also 6’5 and 250 lbs.
Best of luck — Frank.
