by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 11, 2024
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, July 12, 2024
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: BSSE
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Braves -130, Padres +110; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Braves -130, Padres +110; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Braves -130, Padres +110; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Atlanta Braves: 51-40 (2nd place, NL East)
San Diego Padres: 49-47 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Braves: 5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Braves won their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-40 record overall and have a road record of 22-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks still to be played on Thursday. The Braves won the series opener of that series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday while the Diamondbacks won the 3rd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .712 OPS. Max Fried is their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 6 Ks on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the Seattle Mariners 2-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-47 record overall and have a home record of 25-26. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Braves on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Michael King was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6.1 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Braves vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked good in their games this season with their 51-40 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NL East, trailing behind the Phillies in 1st place. They haven't looked as good in their road games though, going 22-23 in those this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good with their 49-47 record overall which has them back in the playoff race after a rough start to the season, but they haven't looked that good in their home games with their 25-26 home record. The Padres just got swept in a mini series against the Mariners and they were at home for that one. They are going to have Vasquez on the mound here who is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA, but he has been really up and down this season. He gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and his team has won 2 games in a row with him starting, but it isn’t often that he doesn’t give up runs in a start. The Braves haven't been any better with their rookie Schwellenbach on the mound either, losing 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he looked a lot better in his last start as he has been improving. He is 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA but only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, and he will be looking to continue that success now that his team has looked a lot better lately. The Braves are starting to win more games again and they are getting hot on offense again, producing more runs now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game.
Braves Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 12, 2024 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Braves 6 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
Atlanta Braves: 13-23 (-13.30 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 36 away games. 7-16 (-11.80 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 23 away games.
San Diego Padres: 12-7 (+4.45 units) on the moneyline in their last 19 games. 34-30 (+4.50 units) on the runline in their last 64 games.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Braves: B. Anderson (RF) Prob Thurs - Lower Body. R. Laureano (CF) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Kerr (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Waldrep (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. M. Harris II (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. S. Strider (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) out for season - Lower Body. J. Herget (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow.
San Diego Padres: Y. Darvish (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. F. Tatis Jr. (RF) Late July - Quadricep. L. Patino (SP) out for season - Elbow. X. Bogaerts (2B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“That’s the first time our bullpen’s given up a lead in a long, long, long time. It’s going to happen.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in their game on Wednesday.
“In games like that it’s about execution. We weren’t able to get the big hit and we didn’t play clean as we liked to defensively.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Mariners in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Braves
J Kelenic (L) CF
O Albies (S) 2B
A Riley (R) 3B
M Olson (L) 1B
M Ozuna (R) DH
A Duvall (R) RF
E Rosario (L) LF
T d'Arnaud (R) C
O Arcia (R) SS
San Diego Padres
L Arraez (L) 1B
J Profar (S) LF
J Cronenworth (L) 2B
M Machado (R) DH
D Solano (R) 3B
J Merrill (L) CF
D Peralta (L) RF
H Kim (R) SS
B Sullivan (L) C
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Marcell Ozuna (.296)
Hits: Marcell Ozuna (100)
Home Runs: Marcell Ozuna (24)
RBI: Marcell Ozuna (75)
Stolen Bases: Ronald Acuña (16)
Wins: Chris Sale (12)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (21)
ERA: AJ Smith-Shawver (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Matthew Batten (.333)
Hits: Jurickson Profar (101)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (14)
RBI: Jurickson Profar (59)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (17)
Wins: Dylan Cease (7)
Saves: Robert Suarez (22)
ERA: Logan Gillaspie (0.00)
Managers:
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (9th season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
