Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2024

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Thursday, July 11, 2024

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  ARID

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -135, Diamondbacks +114; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -135, Diamondbacks +115; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Braves -135, Diamondbacks +115; Over/Under:  8 runs

Atlanta Braves:  51-39 (2nd place, NL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  45-47 (3rd place, NL West)

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Atlanta Braves:  6-4 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

The Braves are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-39 record overall and have a road record of 22-22. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Braves won the series opener of this series on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .713 OPS. Charlie Morton is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Max Fried is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 11 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-47 record overall and have a home record of 22-23. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Braves on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks lost the 1st game of this series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Slade Cecconi is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 6 strikeouts on 7 hits through 4.1 innings played against the San Diego Padres.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked good in their games this season with their 51-39 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NL East, trailing behind the Phillies in 1st place. They haven't looked great in their road games with their 22-22 road record. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 45-47 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the NL West. They are only 22-23 in their home games too, and this was the team that went to the World Series last season. The Braves have already taken the first 2 games of this series so the Diamondbacks are going to be looking to bounce back so they can salvage this series with a split or at least avoid the sweep, depending on what happens Wednesday. They should get a better outing from their starter in this one too, going with Pfaadt who is 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA. Pfaadt hasn't been lights out this season, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and hasn't been giving up many runs at all in his starts lately. The team has also been finding a lot of success with him lately, winning the last 3 games he started in. Fried is on the mound for the Braves here and he has also been good this season with his 7-4 record and his 3.18 ERA. His team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting too, but he is coming off a start in which he gave up 5 earned runs in and the Diamondbacks can take advantage of that at home since their offense hasn't been bad this season. If the Diamondbacks are going to take a game in this series, this is their best chance to do so with the pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game. 

Braves Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 11, 2024 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 5 Braves 2.

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Atlanta Braves: 13-22 (-12.15 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 35 away games. 7-15 (-10.80 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 22 away games. 45-24 to the under in their last 69 games. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: 18-10 (+6.65 units) on the runline in their last 28 games. 21-15 (+5.15 units) on the moneyline in their last 36 games. 22-12 to the under with their team total in their last 34 home games. 

Atlanta Braves:  A. Smith-Shawver (RP) Prob Wed - Oblique. R. Kerr (RP) out for season - Elbow. R. Laureano (CF) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Anderson (RF) Out indefinitely - Lower Body. H. Waldrep (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. M. Harris II (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. S. Strider (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) out for season - Lower Body. J. Herget (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  B. Pfaadt (SP) Ques Thurs - Ankle. J. Montgomery (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Kelly (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. E. Rodriguez (SP) Early June - Shoulder. D. Jameson (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Castro (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. B. Walston (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. K. Nelson (RP) out for season - Shoulder.

“What Jesse did, coming in and doing multiple (innings) like that, that's how we win.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Tuesday.

“The gears were grinding the entire day. I felt like Zac had really good stuff, but he got clipped for a couple runs and extended that pitch count.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Braves in their game on Tuesday.

J Kelenic (L) CF

O Albies (S) 2B

A Riley (R) 3B

M Olson (L) 1B

M Ozuna (R) DH

A Duvall (R) RF

E Rosario (L) LF

S Murphy (R) C

O Arcia (R) SS

K Marte (S) 2B

R Grichuk (R) LF

L Gurriel Jr. (R) DH

C Walker (R) 1B

G Moreno (R) C

J McCarthy (L) RF

E Suárez (R) 3B

A Thomas (L) CF

K Newman (R) SS

Batting Average:  Marcell Ozuna (.293)

Hits:  Marcell Ozuna (98)

Home Runs:  Marcell Ozuna (23)

RBI:  Marcell Ozuna (73)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuña (16)

Wins:  Chris Sale (12)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (21)

ERA:  AJ Smith-Shawver (0.00)

Batting Average:  Kevin Newman (.286)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (96)

Home Runs:  Christian Walker (22)

RBI:  Christian Walker (65)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (16)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (6)

Saves:  Paul Sewald (11)

ERA:  Justin Martinez (1.42)

Managers:

Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (9th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (8th season)