The MLS Playoffs are here with the 1st Round kicking off on Friday, October 25, 2024. Atlanta defeated Montreal in penalties after a 2-2 draw in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference while Vancouver defeated Portland 5-0 in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Western Conference. The 1st Round of the playoffs will start on Friday with it being a best 2 out of 3 series, each team getting 1 home match and if a 3rd match is needed to decide who advances, the higher seed would have the home advantage in that 3rd match. The Conference Semifinals, the Conference Finals, and the MLS Cup Finals will all be a single match knockout round with the higher seed getting the home advantage. Now that the MLS Playoffs are finally here, it is time to see who has the best chance of getting through to the Finals and winning the MLS Cup.
To Win Outright
Inter Miami +150: Inter Miami is coming into the MLS Playoffs as the team with the best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Inter Miami won the Supporters’ Shield this season as they finished with a 22-8-4 record this season, giving them 74 points total which was 8 more points than the 2nd place team. They also had the 2nd best goal differential this season at +30, scoring 79 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 49 goals. They were 2nd for GD but they were the highest scoring team in the MLS this season with 79 goals, scoring 7 more than the 2nd place team. Inter Miami has completely turned this club around since Lionel Messi’s arrival and there were already big signs near the end of last season that this club was due for some major improvement this year. They finished the regular season winning 3 straight matches and do not have a loss in their last 9 straight either so they are coming into the playoffs with some momentum. Inter Miami won the Leagues Cup last season but they were not able to make a run and get in the playoffs after Messi’s arrival later in the season. This season, they were knocked out of the Leagues Cup, but now they are in the playoffs as the number 1 seed and motivation will be at an all-time high as this is a trophy that Messi is still missing in his trophy case. Miami has been the best team in the MLS all season and with the quality they have in their squad, they can beat any team in the playoffs and make a run to win the whole thing. There is value in Inter Miami to win the MLS Cup at this price.
Los Angeles Galaxy +350: The LA Galaxy is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. The Galaxy finished the regular season as the 2nd place team in the Western Conference and the 4th place team in the overall table. They were 19-8-7 this season which gave them 64 points and they also had a +19 goal differential, scoring 69 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 50 goals. They finished the regular season in good form as they lost their last match but did win 3 of their last 4. They have an easier matchup in the 1st Round as well, going up against Colorado who is a team that has struggled with the Galaxy in recent meetings. The Galaxy should have no problem getting through Colorado, but their defense has not been playing well in their matches as they have been conceding a lot of goals down this final stretch of the season. There are also plenty of good quality teams in the Western Conference that can put up a fight with the Galaxy, and their defense will become a much bigger issue deeper in the playoffs when they hit the single leg matches. They do have a very strong attack, but there are plenty of teams with strong attacks in the Western Conference as well so there is nothing really separating this club from the others with that struggling defense. LA Galaxy has had a great season as they have improved a lot from last season, but there is no real value in them to lift the trophy at this price.
Columbus Crew +650: The Columbus Crew is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Columbus finished the regular season as the 2nd place team in the Eastern Conference and they were also the 2nd place team in the overall table. They were 19-9-6 this season which gave them 66 points and they had a goal differential of +32 which was the best GD in the MLS this year. They scored 72 goals in their 34 matches and had the 4th best defense in the league with 40 goals allowed. They are also the defending MLS Cup champions from last season and won the Leagues Cup earlier this year as well. Columbus also reached the CONCACAF Champions Cup Final earlier this season, but they lost to Pachuca. They have been in good form to end the season as they won their last 3 straight matches, but their last loss in the league was at home to Miami and that is going to be a big obstacle for them. Columbus has been a dominant force in the MLS over the last year and they have a good chance at getting to the Conference Final, but that is where they could see some trouble with Inter Miami on the other side of this Eastern Conference bracket. Despite their domination over the last year, Columbus has only won 1 of their last 6 meetings with Miami and that 1 win came in a Leagues Cup match which was the only match in that span that was not an MLS match. Miami has been a thorn in Columbus’ side recently and as long as Miami is alive and well in these playoffs, the defending champions have no real value to repeat at this price.
Los Angeles FC +700: LAFC is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. LA finished the regular season as the number 1 seed in the Western Conference and they were 3rd place in the overall table as well. They were 19-7-8 this season which gave them 64 points and they had a +20 goal differential which was the 3rd best in the league. They scored 63 goals in their 34 matches and allowed 43 goals in those. They have been on fire to end the season as they have won 6 straight matches and their defense has been much better in those as well. They have only allowed 2 goals in their last 4 matches while scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 and they are going to be a very tough out in these playoffs. This is not the same LAFC team that has dominated the MLS over the last few years, but they did a great job with their new team to rebound from their poor start and now they are in some of their best form that they have been in all season. They have momentum coming into this round and they have some teams in their path that they have been dominant over in recent meetings. This may not be the exact same team, but they still have the championship pedigree in LA and there is a lot of value in them at this price as they have a very good chance of getting to the Final.
Seattle Sounders +1600: Seattle is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Seattle finished the regular season in 4th place of the Western Conference and they were 7th place in the overall table. They were 16-9-9 this season which gave them 57 points and they had a +16 goal differential. They scored 51 goals in their 34 matches this season and they had the best defense in the league with only 35 goals allowed. They have been in very good form to end the season, winning 3 of their last 4 as well as 5 of their last 7 matches with no losses in that span. Their defense has been great in these matches as well, allowing just 1 goal in their last 4 matches while also keeping 5 clean sheets in their last 7. They have also scored 1 goal or less in 3 of their last 4 matches and that is going to be a problem they face in these playoffs. They have the great defense to carry them through the playoffs, but they have struggled with stronger attacking teams this season and they do not have the attack to play from behind in matches, especially a single leg knockout type of match. They also have the possibility of facing LAFC in the next round if they get past Houston, and LAFC is a team that has dominated them thoroughly over the last few years. Seattle’s defense does make them a possible dark horse to surprise and get through the Western Conference, but they also had the best defense in the league last season and struggled once they got to the playoffs, getting knocked out by LAFC in a 1-0 match. Their defense is great but their attack is not so they are not a complete enough team to make it to the Final. There is no real value in Seattle at this price.
FC Cincinnati +2000: Cincinnati is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 3rd place of the Eastern Conference and they were 5th place in the overall table. They were 18-5-11 this season which gave them 59 points and they had a +10 goal differential. They scored 58 goals in their 34 matches this season while allowing 48 goals in those, but they were also the only team in the top 7 of the MLS with double digit losses on the season. They do not have a lot of momentum coming into the playoffs either as they have not been in good form recently. They won their final match of the regular season, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 matches and their defense has been atrocious as well, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Cincinnati was a much better team in the league last season and a lot of that was due to their great defense. Their defense has not been nearly as good this season and that is going to cause problems with some of the strong attacking teams they will have to face in the Eastern Conference. Cincinnati blew their chance to win the MLS Cup last season and they have not recovered from that as they have been struggling all season with very inconsistent performances from match to match. There are much better teams in the Eastern Conference this year and the poor defensive play will be the downfall of this Cincinnati team. There is no real value in Cincinnati at this price.
RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams this season on both sides of the bracket, but only 1 team can lift the MLS Cup this year and there are 2 very good contenders that stick out from the rest. Inter Miami at +150 is the best choice with their dominance all season and their hunger to get Messi a trophy that is missing from his trophy case. The next best choice would be LAFC at +700 as they have been the dominant team in the MLS over the last few seasons and still look like one of the most complete teams coming out of the West this season with both their attack and defense. Inter Miami at +150 is the best choice to make here but if looking to hedge with a Western Conference team, LAFC at +700 is the next best choice as there is a good chance that could be the Final this season.
Read more
