Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Betting MLB Spring Training

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2020

While we still haven’t officially entered Spring, the Boys of Summer are out in full force across Florida and Arizona as MLB Spring Training is underway.Betting the MLB exhibition schedule certainly isn’t an easy undertaking for novice bettors, with lots of different factors to consider. Here’s a quick guide of what to look if you just can’t wait for the MLB regular season to get your betting fix.LineupsStarting lineups are obviously the biggest factor when it comes to preseason baseball handicapping. These lineups are usually widely available in the hours leading up to first pitch. Mismatches are not uncommon with teams electing to field rosters of unproven talent on any given day, potentially against a true MLB lineup. Of course, when that is the case, it will quickly be factored into the moneyline prices. It’s important to shop around and act quickly if you come across a stale line. Starting pitchingConsidering the starting pitchers is important, but perhaps not as much so as it is in the regular season as the starter will often be slated to work only a couple of innings. More critical is finding information regarding a manager’s gameplan when it comes to his stable of arms on any given day. That, of course, is easier said than done but following team beat writers on Twitter is a good place to start. WeatherThis time of year, weather is certainly a factor – particularly when it comes to Grapefruit League games, which are played across the state of Florida. Wind, humidity levels and potential afternoon rainfall are all things to look for when scouring the daily weather forecasts. With the smaller dimensions of ballparks, wind is obviously one of most important factors to consider (strength, whether it’s blowing in or out). Also keep in mind, Spring Training games can have start times anywhere between 12 noon et and 9 pm et, with the majority of games taking place in the afternoon. Games that take place in the latter stages of Spring Training are often played at the team’s true home ballpark (generally the weekend before the regular season begins).

Betting NHL Playoffs Futures

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2020

The NHL trade deadline has come and gone leaving us with updated Stanley Cup futures odds. Here’s a look at two teams from each conference that offer excellent value in the wake of all the deadline deals.Eastern ConferencePittsburgh Penguins: 11-1 (at Bovada Sportsbook)The Penguins didn’t make any big moves on deadline day – their biggest move was acquiring Jason Zucker from the Minnesota Wild two weeks ago. Zucker has proven to be an excellent fit on a line with Sidney Crosby, providing some nice secondary scoring over the last couple of weeks.That’s not to say the Pens didn’t tinker with their lineup a little, adding veteran forward Patrick Marleau from the San Jose Sharks while also re-acquiring Conor Sheary along with Evan Rodrigues from the Buffalo Sabres.I like the make-up of this Pens squad as it stands, particularly on the blue line where Pittsburgh has build a solid but unheralded defensive corps that matches up with most teams they’ll face come playoff time. The x-factor could be between the pipes where Pittsburgh will need Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray to round back into form down the stretch.Carolina Hurricanes: 23-1 (at Bovada Sportsbook)This may be my favorite Stanley Cup play on the entire board. The Hurricanes bolstered their blue line prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Sami Vatanen from the Devils and Brady Skjei from the Rangers.Carolina, of course, gained immeasurable playoff experience during last year’s improbable run to the Eastern Conference Final, where it was ushered out by what was simply a strong Bruins squad. This year, I believe the Canes can match up with anyone in the East, noting they already took down the mighty Washington Capitals, who were then defending Stanley Cup champions, in the opening round of last year’s playoffs. The Canes young corps has only gotten stronger this season and I liked the savvy move of bringing Justin Williams back out of retirement for one more run at the Cup. It’s probably only a matter of time before head coach Rod Brind’Amour brings a cup to Raleigh – why not this year?Western ConferenceVegas Golden Knights: 13-1 (at Bovada Sportsbook)The Knights appear to be rounding into form at the right time as they ascend the Western Conference standings in February. This is a roster that has only gotten stronger since going all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in the team’s NHL debut season in 2017-18. Given last year’s somewhat surprising early playoff exit, the hunger will certainly be there for the Knights to go on a deep playoff run this year. Vegas didn’t stand pat in the days leading up to the trade deadline, acquiring Stanley Cup winner Alec Martinez to strengthen their defensive corps while also adding some depth between the pipes with Robin Lehner coming over from the Blackhawks. Even Nick Cousins looks like a nice under the radar pickup to add to their depth up front. The Western Conference is wide open this season and I would put the Knights right up there with the Blues as one of the favorites to represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Final.Vancouver Canucks: 21-1 (at Bovada Sportsbook)While the Canucks won’t be a sure thing to get out of the first round, let alone go on a Stanley Cup run, I do like them at the current price point as they offer a lot of upside, albeit with a young roster that doesn’t have a great deal of playoff experience to lean on.Bringing in two-time Stanley Cup winner Tyler Toffoli from the Kings was arguably one of the biggest moves leading up to the trade deadline, and since joining the team he has proven to be a tremendous fit by all accounts. With Brock Boeser sidelined, Toffoli provides some much needed scoring punch up front.While the Canucks future is bright, I do think they’re in ‘win now’ mode as well. Once again, with the West there for the taking, this might just be the year that a Canadian team finally ends the 27-year drought and hoists Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Big Al's NFL Overtime Solution

by Al McMordie

Monday, Jan 06, 2020

There have been nine NFL playoff games since the new rule which allows a team to walk-off the field with a touchdown on the opening possession.2011 Broncos vs. Steelers Result: Broncos win on TD on 1st possession2011 Giants vs. 49ers Result: Giants win on FG on 5th possession2012 Ravens vs. Broncos Result: Ravens win on FG on 5th possession2014 Seahawks vs. Packers Result: Seahawks win on TD on 1st possession2015 Cardinals vs. Packers Result: Cardinals win on TD on 1st possession2016 Patriots vs. Falcons Result: Patriots win on TD on 1st possession2018 Rams vs. Saints Result: Rams win on FG on 2nd possession2018 Patriots vs. Chiefs Result: Patriots win on TD on 1st possession2019 Vikings vs. Saints Result: Vikings win on TD on 1st possessionSix of the nine games have ended on the 1st possession.The longest was the Ravens/Broncos game, which lasted 16 minutes and 42 seconds (five possessions).The quarterbacks who never got to touch the ball in Overtime:Ben RoethlisbergerAaron Rodgers (twice)Matt RyanPatrick MahomesDrew BreesIf I was king of the world, I would have a 5th quarter, followed by sudden death, if still tied after 15 minutes.The NFL must have already considered (and discarded) that idea.Therefore, my next favorite idea is just a tweak on the current rule. And maybe it's something that would be considered.I believe that a team should have to score not just a touchdown, but also a 2-point conversion if it wants to walk off the field after the first possession. That would have changed the above outcomes from six of nine ending with one overtime possession to, maybe, just three of nine.That's a hugely more satisfying outcome.Further, a coach would have a myriad of things to consider when he was confronted with the choice of whether to go for a 2-point conversion following a score on an overtime's opening possession.One choice might be to just kick the extra point and let the overtime continue for at least one more possession (where you could only be BEAT) if the other team scored a touchdown and went for 2.Certainly, the team which plays defense on the opening possession would almost always go for 2 on a second possession, if down seven points, lest it kick a game-tying extra point only to give the ball back to its opponent with the possibility of then losing on a field goal on the overtime's 3rd possession.But, who knows? So much would depend on the teams and their personnel.The strategic decisions would be fascinating.But, more importantly, it would greatly decrease the current unfairness of the existing format, and level out the vagaries of a coin flip.Just my thoughts...Al McMordie

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