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Ness Notes: Saturday, Jan 2

by Larry Ness

Saturday, Jan 02, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."This is a special NFL week 17 edition of Ness Notes but first, some thoughts on the CFP semifinals. Mac Jones threw four TD passes, three to WR DeVonta Smith, plus RB Harris 'hurdled' his way to 125 rushing yards, as top-ranked Alabama rolled to a 31-14 victory over fourth-ranked Notre Dame. Alabama scored on its first THREE possessions and seemed to get 'bored' after taking a 28-7 lead in the third quarter. It was another DISMAL performance by Notre Dame in a "big-time" bowl game, although Notre Dame bettors collected on a 'backdoor' cover with 56 seconds left. The 12-0 Crimson Tide move on to the CFP title game for the FIFTH time in the system's seven seasons (won in 2015 and 2017). Awaiting Alabama will be 7-0 Ohio St, the "11th-best" team in CFB according to seer Dabo Swinney! Trevor Who? Ohio St QB Justin Fields threw for 385 yards and six TDs, while RB Trey Sermon ran 31 times for 193 yards, as the Buckeyes avenged last season's 29-23 semi final loss to the Tigers in a DOMINATING 49-28 win. Don't blame Trevor (400 passing yards and two TDs) but the Clemson defense had NO answer for Fields and the Ohio St offense, as the Buckeyes reeled off 28 unanswered points to take a 35-14 halftime lead. No. 1 Alabama and 'No. 11' Ohio St will meet Jan 11 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Plenty of time to talk more about that game in the upcoming week.NFL Week 17: I always like to "start at the bottom" and this week's 'bottom' is shared by 1-14 Jacksonville Jaguars and the division that has EARNED its title of NFC 'Least' in the 2020. season. In a land far, far, away and in one that 'time has forgot,' the Jaguars opened the 2020 season with a 27-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts (Jags were a 7-point home dog). To say the least, those respective teams have taken a different path since that Week 1 meeting, as this long-awaited "rematch" is set for Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in week 17. The Jags have lost 14 straight entering this game but have already won the Trevor Lawrence (Justin Fields?) sweepstakes. General manager David Caldwell was fired, QB Gardner Minshew has been benched and head coach Doug Marrone could be gone soon, too. Marrone is just 12-35 since leading Jacksonville to the AFC championship game following the 2017 season. What more could the Jags expect of him? As for the Colts, they enter this game 10-5 and could still win the AFC South title if Tennessee loses at Houston, as we HAVE to assume the Colts can beat the Jags, right? However, an Indy win only gets them into the playoffs if they get help by a loss from either the Cleveland Browns (10-5), Baltimore Ravens (10-5), Miami Dolphins (10-5) or Tennessee Titans (10-5). Indy is favored by 14 points and the over/under is 49 1/2.There is ONE thing we are sure about in the NFC East and that is the division winner will finish with a losing record, making them the FIFTH team since the NFL-AFL merger to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and only the THIRD to do so during a 16-game season. However, there is one more thing we know and that is that the defending champion Eagles are the ONLY team in the division with NOTHING to play for on Sunday! The 6-9 Cowboys and 5-10 Giants meet at MetLife Stadium and the victor will keep its division title hopes alive for at least a few more hours. Both teams need a victory by the Philadelphia Eagles over the visiting Washington Football Team on Sunday night to clinch the crown. Talk about teams going in opposite directions. The Cowboys enter on a three-game winning streak and the Giants on a three-game slide Dallas is favored by 1 1/2-points and the over/under is 44 1/2.Neither Dallas nor New York can advance if Washington wins its SNF game at Philadelphia but the news that the Eagles are fielding a 'JV team,' with players opting out, sitting out because of COVID and others just plain injured. Then again, who knows? After all, the Jets are on a two-game winning streak? Who'da thunk that? Washington began the season by abandoning a controversial nickname and caps it by moving on from a controversial QB. A 7-9 record is "just good enough" in this year's NFC 'Least.' Washington is favored by 3 1/2- points and the over/under is 43 1/2.The oldest rivalry in NFL history features the 12-3 Packers visiting the 8-7 Bears. Green Bay can clinch a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the Bears. The Packers can also get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers. As for Chicago, 'Da Bears can clinch an NFC playoff berth with a win but there also are two other pathways for the Bears to secure a postseason spot. They need 8-7 Arizona to lose at the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams OR, if the Bears and Cardinals each finish Sunday's games with tie scores. Wouldn't that be some 'Daily Double?' Green Bay is on a five-game winning streak and Chicago on a three-game run. The Packers are favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 50 1/2. The 8-7 Arizona Cardinals are on the road vs the Los Angeles Rams and win gets them in the playoff field. However, while the Rams are a game better at 9-6, the Rams need a victory or a Chicago Bears loss to the Green Bay Packers to make the playoff field. The bad news for LA is that QB Jared Goff is out with a thumb injury and WR Kupp tested positive for COVID-19. Arizona is favored by three points and the over/under is 40 1/2. Staying in the NFC West, 11-4 Seattle will play the 6-9 49ers in their 'home-away-from-home,' Glendale, Az. The Seahawks can still earn the NFC's top seed and a first-round bye with a victory but only with a loss by Green Bay at Chicago and a loss or tie by 11-4 New Orleans at 5-10 Carolina. Seattle is favored by seven points and the over/under is 46.Wrapping up the NFC, the 11-4 Saints (11-4) can clinch the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC if they win at Carolina along with a Seattle victory at San Francisco, as long as Green Bay loses at Chicago. It was hardly good news that Alvin Kamamra tested positive for COVID-19 and won't play here (playoff status is unknown). The Saints are favored by 6 1/2-points and the over/under is 47. The 10-5 Tampa Bay Bradys are home to the Falcons and have already clinched a playoff spot for the first time in 13 years and are in great shape to host the sub-.500 winner of the NFC East as the No. 5 seed. Tampa Bay is favored by seven points and the over/under is 50 1/2.Back to the AFC, where the defending champions KC Chiefs (14-1) own the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 12-3 Buffalo Bills have already clinched their first division title since 1995 but a win over the visiting 10-5 Dolphins would lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Miami needs a win in Sunday's regular-season finale at Buffalo to guarantee its first postseason berth since 2016. However, the Dolphins can also get into the playoffs with one loss by either the Browns, Colts or Ravens. Buffalo is favored by three points and the over/under is 42 1/2. The 10-5 Cleveland Browns will make the postseason with a win over the visiting 12-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh already knows it will be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the postseason (a Buffalo loss and a Pittsburgh win gives the Steelers the No. 2 seed), which led head coach Mike Tomlin declaring this week that Ben Roethlisberger will get the week off (Mason Rudolph will get his first start of the year). Cleveland could still sneak into the playoffs with a loss (provided the right combination of other teams lose and/or win) but when the Browns haven't made the postseason since 2002, they surely don't want to be 'scoreboard watching.' Cleveland is favored by 9 1/2-points and the over/under is 41 1/2.The 10-5 Baltimore Ravens have won FOUR in a row and can 'punch their ticket' for a third straight trip to the playoffs with a win Sunday at 4-10-1 Cincinnati or if the Browns lose to the Steelers (12-3), or via a loss by the Colts to the Jaguars (1-14). Cincinnati has won two straight but beating the Ravens may be a 'bridge too far!' Baltimore is favored by 13 1/2-points and the over/under is 44. which has won two straight games. My final 'stop' is at NRG Stadium where the 4-11 Houston Texans host the 10-5 Tennessee Titans. The Titans currently sit atop the AFC South (win tiebreaker with the Colts) but with FIVE teams vying for four AFC playoff spots all sporting the same 10-5 record, there are no guarantees for the Titans. Tennessee is in if it wins but at this point, I'm too exhausted to look into what happens if the Titans lose. Maybe they can play Clemson? Tennessee is favored by 7 1/2-points and the over/under is 56.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NBA, NCAA Football and EPL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 02, 2021

The Saturday sports card features four college football bowl games along with action in the NBA and college basketball and the continuation of Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League.The Gator Bowl kicks off the college football card at noon ET with North Carolina State playing Kentucky. The Wildcats are 2.5-point favorites, with the total set at 50. ESPN has the broadcast. The Outback Bowl starts at 12:30 PM ET with Mississippi playing Indiana on ABC. The Hoosiers are ranked 7th in the Associated press and are 9.5-point favorites with an over/under of 66.5.Oregon plays Iowa State at 4 PM ET in the Fiesta Bowl on ESPN. The 12th ranked Cyclones are a 4.5-point favorite over the 25th ranked Ducks with a total of 58.5. The football card concludes at 8 PM ET on ESPN with the Orange Bowl between Texas A&M and North Carolina. The seventh-ranked Aggies are 7.5-point favorites over the 14th ranked Tar Heels with an over/under of 65.5.A big college basketball card tips off at noon ET. Kansas hosts Texas on ESPN2 with the third-ranked Jayhawks 4-point favorites against the eighth-ranked Longhorns with a total of 136. Creighton visits Providence on Fox with the 11th ranked Bluejays 4.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 145.5. Arkansas hosts the 12th ranked Missouri on CBS as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 146.5. St. John’s plays at home against DePaul on FS1 as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 158.5. At 12:30 PM ET, Duquesne visits George Washington on the NBC Sports Network as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 144.At 2 PM ET, Iowa plays at Rutgers on ESPN. The 10th ranked Hawkeyes are 3-point road favorites against the 14th ranked Scarlet Knights with the total at 158.5. LSU plays at Florida on CBS in a pick ‘em matchup with the over/under at 152. TCU travels to Kansas State on ESPNU as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 131.5. At 2:30 PM ET, VCU hosts Davidson on the NBC Sports Network as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.Ball State plays at home against Ohio at 3 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network, with the Cardinals a 1-point favorite with a total of 144.At 4 PM ET, Oklahoma hosts West Virginia on ESPN2. The Sooners are a 1.5-point favorite against the ninth-ranked Mountaineers with an over/under of 144.5. San Diego State plays at home against Colorado State on CBS as an 8-point favorite with the total at 135.5. At 4:30 PM ET, Seton Hall takes on Butler at home on FS1 as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 138. Dayton plays George Mason at home on the NBC Sports Network as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 135.Richmond hosts St. Bonaventure at 5 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5.At 6 PM ET, Tennessee plays at home against Alabama on ESPN2, with the seventh-ranked Volunteers a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 143.5. Mississippi hosts Wichita State on ESPNU as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 134. Marquette travels to Georgetown at 7:30 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 149.The number one ranked team in the nation plays at 8 PM ET with Gonzaga hosting San Francisco on ESPN2. The Bulldogs are 19.5-point favorites with an over/under of 161.5.At 10 PM ET, Oregon plays at home against Stanford on ESPN2. The 21st ranked Ducks are 5-point favorites with the total set at 141. Nevada visits New Mexico on the CBS Sports Network as a 6-point favorite with the over/under of 143.The NBA card features six games. None of these contests are on national television. Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. At 7:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network, Tottenham plays at home against Leeds United as a -0.75 goal-line favorite with the total at 3.25. Crystal Palace hosts Sheffield United at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with the over/under at 2.25. NBC has Wolverhampton visiting Brighton and Hove Albion at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2. At 2:30 PM ET on the NBC Peacock app, Arsenal travels to West Bromwich Albion as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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NCAA Football Orange Bowl: Texas A&M/North Carolina Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 02, 2021

The final New Year’s Six Bowl for 2020-21 takes place Saturday night with the Orange Bowl at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, featuring two teams ranked in the top-14 in the nation.Texas A&M ranks 5th in the Associated Press poll after an 8-1 regular season that culminated with a 34-13 win at Tennessee on December 19th. Quarterback Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the victory. He added another 59 yards on the ground with another rushing touchdown. The senior completed 63.5% of his passes this season for 2050 yards with 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions while rushing for 258 yards with another three touchdowns.Mond leads an offense that ranked 34th in the nation by averaging 437.2 yards-per-game. The Aggies defense held their opponents to 316.6 yards-per-game, the 11th best mark in the country. Texas A&M’s lone loss was at Alabama by a 52-24 score in Tuscaloosa on October 3rd. With victories over Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn, head coach Jimbo Fisher thought his team deserved to make the College Football Playoff. Whether his team will have a chip on their shoulder to make a statement the day after the semifinals took place, or they will be complacent to play against a perennial basketball power from the ACC with three losses is one of the questions for this game. Fisher has overseen a team that has gone 25-10 in the three years since taking over the program with two victories in bowl games. They defeated North Carolina State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 52-13 score. North Carolina ranks 14th in the AP poll after concluding their 8-3 regular season with a 62-26 upset victory at Miami (FL) as a 3-point favorite on December 12th. Led by quarterback Sam Howell, the Tar Heels generated 778 yards against the Hurricanes’ defense. North Carolina ranks fourth in the nation averaging 556.6 yards-per-game, and their 43.0 points-per-game scoring average is the sixth-best in the country. Howell completed 14 of his 19 passes for 223 yards in the victory. The sophomore completed 69.1% of his passes for 3352 yards with 27 touchdown passes with six interceptions. The Tar Heels lost by just three points to Virginia and Florida while remaining competitive against Notre Dame in a 31-17 setback. North Carolina had three other victories against bowl teams in Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina State.Head coach Mack Brown will be using this game as a preview for the 2021-22 season, with four of his best players opting out for this game. Wide receiver Dyami Brown caught 55 passes for 1099 yards with eight touchdowns. Running back Michael Carter rushed for 1245 yards on 156 carries for an 8.0 yards-per-carry average with nine touchdowns. Fellow running back Javonte Williams ran the ball 157 times for 1140 yards for a 7.3 yards-per-carry average with 19 touchdowns. Linebacker Chazz Surratt registered 91 tackles with six sacks. Brown has a 15-9 record in his two years at Chapel Hill. North Carolina beat Temple in the Military Bowl by a 55-13 score last season. BookMaker lists Texas A&M as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 65.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 8 PM ET.

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Ness Notes: Friday, Jan 1

by Larry Ness

Friday, Jan 01, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."Before getting to the bowls, let's take a quick "look back" on college hoops from Monday thru Thursday, then a quick "look ahead" to Saturday and Sunday. Higher ranked teams opened the week 15-7 SU but just 11-11 ATS against lower-ranked teams. Ranked teams were 119-19 (.862) SU but a more modest 74-62-2 (54.4%) ATS vs unranked opponents Y-T-D. There were just four games between ranked opponents the last four days (one each day) and the higher ranked team won and covered THREE of the four. The lone exception was No. 17 Michigan St losing 81-56 at No. 21 Minnesota. The Spartans have now lost their first three conference games for the first time since the 2001-02 season. That makes the higher ranked team 18-8 (.692) SU but just 14-12 (53.8%) ATS. There were 13 games the last four days with ranked teams playing unranked teams, with the ranked teams going 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS. The losers were No. 6 Wisconsin losing at Maryland on Monday plus No. 5 Houston losing at Tulsa and No. 18 FSU losing at Clemson on Tuesday. Doing the math, ranked teams are now 129-22 (.854) SU but a much more modest 80-69-2 (53.7%) ATS.There are no ranked teams in action on Friday but it's a  BUSY Saturday and Sunday. There are four matchups of ranked teams on Saturday; No. 3 Kansas at No. 8 Texas, No. 10 Iowa at No. 14 Rutgers, No. 18 FSU at No. 20 Duke and No. 23 UVa home to No. 24 Va Tech. There are 11 ranked teams playing unranked opponents, including No. 1 Gonzaga (9-0) home to San Francisco and No. 2 Baylor (8-0) at Iowa St. Moving to Sunday, No. 16 Michigan (8-0) is home to No. 19 Northwestern and No. 21 N Minnesota is home to Ohio St. No. 5 Houston will play at unranked SMU (6-0) and No. 6 Wisconsin is at unranked Penn St. Monday's Notes will be all football with a CFB bowl recap) and NFL week 17 recap. I'll catch up with the new AP poll (released Monday) plus the Saturday and Sunday happenings in college hoops in Tuesday's Notes.Bowl Update: Heading into Tuesday's two bowl games, favorites are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS and there have been four overs and six unders. Over the last three days (Tuesday-Thursday), favorites have gone 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, while SIX of the seven games have gone over. During the previous three days, there was only ONE meeting between a ranked and unranked opponent (using AP rankings) and one meeting between ranked opponents. OSU was ranked 21st in the CFP rankings but unranked in the AP, while Miami entered ranked 18th in both the AP and CFP. The Cowboys won 37-34 in Tuesday's Cheez-It Bowl. Wednesday saw the first of the New Year's Six bowls with 8-3 Florida and 8-2 Oklahoma squaring off in the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners are ranked 8th in the AP and Gators 10th, giving us just our second ranked vs ranked bowl game (Liberty/Coastal Carolina was the first). However, the game was marred by the fact that the Gators showed up with a JV-like version and got CREAMED, 55-20. New Year's Eve produced two competitive games, Mississippi St 28-26 over Tulsa and West Va 24-21 over Army, plus a Ball St 34-13 blowout of previously unbeaten San Jose St. The Miss St/Tulsa game was marred by an 'ugly' brawl at the end. Through 17 bowls, favorites are 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS with 10 overs and seven unders. In the two games between ranked opponents, the higher ranked team is 1-1 SU and ATS and in the bowls with a ranked team playing an unranked opponent, the ranked team is 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.The bowl season concludes (save the CFP national championship game set for Jan 11) with four games on Friday and Saturday. No two games are bigger than the national semifinal games played on Friday but we also have three of the remaining New Year's Six Bowl games being contested over the next two days.Only in "The Year of COVID" would the Rose Bowl (the first of two CFP semifinal games) be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It's No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1) at 4:00 ET. When the teams last met eight seasons ago in the BCS title game, Alabama scored the game's first 35 points in a 42-14 romp. Notre Dame's defense ranks 14th in allowing 18.6 PPG but down the stretch allowed 30-plus points in three of its last five games. How can that be good news when facing an Alabama team that topped 50 points six times and averaged 49.7 PPG (second-best nationally)? Alabama has scored 35 or more points in a major-college record 24 consecutive games since losing to Clemson 44-16 in the CFP title game to end the 2018 season, with the Crimson Tide going  22-2 during that stretch. Any surprise that Alabama is favored by 19 1/2-points? The over/under is 66.The second College Football Playoff Semifinal game is the Sugar Bowl between No.2 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio St. This game will be contested in its familiar 'home,' at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans at 8:00 ET. While Alabama/Notre Dame may be a rematch from EIGHT seasons ago, Clemson and Ohio St is a rematch from a semifinal game from last season. Ohio St led 16-0 through the first 25 minutes of that game but Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne led a comeback that put the Tigers up 29-23. The Buckeyes drove to the Tigers' 23 with a chance to potentially win the game but Justin Fields was intercepted in the end zone with 37 seconds left in the game. Lawrence had 259 passing yards and a touchdown plus 107 yards and a rushing TD, while Etienne had 134 all-purpose yards and three TDs.According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, that loss has reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room, an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. Ohio St played just SIX games this season and some think the Buckeyes are NOT deserving of a 'Final 4' berth. One person, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, has been particularly vocal about that point.Swinney said he felt the six-game resume of Ohio State put the Buckeyes on a different playing field than many of the other contenders. Swinney backed up his feelings by ranking the Buckeyes No. 11 in the final coaches' poll of the season. In his own words. "I think any time you step in between the lines, the game of football, there's a lot that can happen. A lot," Swinney said. "I mean, heck, in 2017, we lost to a three-win or four-win Syracuse team and still went to the playoffs. So anything can happen. Guys can get hurt. There's a lot. So I think the fact that we're going to have 11 games as well as the SEC teams -- I mean, you look at Florida and Texas A&M and Alabama. I mean, these teams are going to have 11 games this year. It's incredible and I think the Big Ten had the same opportunity and they chose not to play, and I think the only reason they ended up playing is because of the leadership of the SEC and the ACC and the Big 12, and have demonstrated that we can do it and do it in a safe way. So it's been an unbelievably challenging season, that's for sure. Enough said. Ohio St has ALL the motivation but will that be enough? Clemson is favored by seven points and the over/under is 68 1/2.Cincinnati won the American Athletic Conference championship game in a squeaker (27-24 over Tulsa), to finish the regular season 9-0. After Notre Dame was soundly defeated by Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, there was talk that maybe the Bearcats were deserving of finishing among the top -our teams in the CFP. The 9-0 Bearcats finished No. 8. 10-1 Notre Dame (No. 4) and 8-1 Texas A&M (No. 5) finishing ahead of Cincy was not really a surprise but when the Bearcats also fell behind 8-2 Oklahoma (No. 6) and 8-3 Florida (No. 7) it became clear that the committee NEVER considered them a 'Final 4' option. As the top-ranked Group of 5 school, Cincy got a New Year's Six Bowl bid to the Peach Bowl (Friday at 12:00 ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta), where it will meet a 7-2 Georgia team that finished No. 9 in the final rankings. Georgia was the AP's preseason No. 4 team but the Bulldogs lost BADLY in both of their "biggest" tests in 2020, losing 41-24 at Alabama and 44-28 in Jacksonville to Florida. Yes, the Bearcats enter the game with a 'chip on their shoulders,' but DON'T make the mistake of thinking Georgia DOESN'T have anything to play for (prove) in this game. Georgia is favored by points 9 1/2-points and the over/under is 52 1/2.The last two New Year's Six Bowls are on Saturday. Up first is the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Az, between Oregon and Iowa St at 4:00 ET. When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) was a co-favorite with USC to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washington at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks replaced the Huskies in the championship game. In less than a week, Oregon went from understudy to center stage. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship. The victory gave Oregon (25th in both the AP and CFP) the Pac-12's automatic berth to a New Year's Six game. Waiting for them will be 8-3 Iowa State (No. 10 CFP / No. 12 AP). The Cyclones lost their season opener at home to ULL but then won SEVEN of their next eight games, including a 37-30 home win over then-No. 18 Oklahoma and a 23-20 road win at then-No. 17 Texas (it was Iowa St's first win in Austin since 2010). The Cyclones have never won a championship in the Big 12 or their previous league, the Big Eight. Iowa State's last conference title came back in 1912 (MVC). Iowa State made its first-ever appearance in the Big 12 championship game on Dec 19 but couldn't beat Oklahoma second time, falling 27-21. Iowa St is favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 58.The bowl weekend concludes with the Orange Bowl from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, as 8-1 Texas A&M (No. 5 in both polls) takes on 8-3 North Carolina (No. 13 in the CFP and No. 14 in the AP). Texas A&M was one spot away from making its first appearance in the College Football Playoff. Instead, the Aggies will go to the Orange Bowl for the first time since a 1944 loss to LSU. However, it's a school-record 12th consecutive year in which Texas A&M is headed to a bowl, although it's the school's first appearance in a CFP-era New Year's Six bowl. As for North Carolina, it's the first time the Tar Heels have played in the Orange Bowl, with North Carolina making its first major bowl appearance since the 1950 Cotton Bowl. "Hanging over' this game is the fact that BOTH of North Carolina's RBs have opted out! Carter and Williams combined for 544 rushing yards in North Carolina's 62-26 rout of Mia-Fl in this very same stadium back on Dec 12. It set a Football Bowl Subdivision record for a twosome in a single game. We still could have a 'shootout' between North Carolina QB Sam Howell (27 TDs / 6 INTs) and his Texas A&M counterpart, Kelly Mond (19 TDs / 3 INTs). Texas A&M is favored by 7 1/2-points and the over/under is 65 1/2.A special NFL week 17 edition of Ness Notes is available on Saturday.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAA Basketball and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jan 01, 2021

The Friday New Year’s Day sports card features four college football bowl games headlined by the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The NBA and college basketball join in the action along with the beginning of Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League.The college football card kicks off at noon ET with the Peach Bowl between Georgia and Cincinnati. The Bulldogs raised their record to a 7-2 mark on December 12th with their 49-14 win at Missouri as a 14-point favorite. Former USC transfer J.T. Daniels has passed for 839 yards with a 10.4 yards-per-attempt average with nine touchdown passes and just one interception since taking over as the starting quarterback three games ago.Cincinnati completed their perfect 9-0 regular season by winning the American Athletic Conference Championship Game with their 27-24 win over Tulsa as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. The Bearcats felt snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee, but they did earn the Group of Five designated slot in a New Year’s Six Bowl.The Peach Bowl takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Georgia is a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 52 (all odds from BetOnline). The game is on ESPN.ABC broadcasts the Citrus Bowl at 1 PM ET in a clash between Auburn and Northwestern. The Tigers snapped a two-game losing streak on December 12th with a 24-10 win at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite. Auburn finished their regular season with a 6-4 record.Northwestern lost in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 19th to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. The Wildcats have lost two of their last three games but enter this bowl game with a 6-2 record. Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, hosts the Citrus Bowl. Northwestern is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5.The first College Football Playoff Semifinal is with Rose Bowl between Notre Dame and Alabama. The Fighting Irish lost their first game of the season on December 19th when they lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game by a 34-10 score as an 11.5-point underdog. Notre Dame was still voted as the fourth team in the playoff rankings given their previous 47-40 victory over the Clemson Tigers. Alabama is 11-0 this season after they defeated Florida in the SEC Championship Game by a 52-46 score on December 19th as a 16.5-point favorite. Led by quarterback Mac Jones’ 418 passing yards with five touchdown passes, the Crimson Tide gained 605 yards against the Gators. Initially designated for its traditional location in Pasadena, California, the Rose Bowl was moved to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, given California attendance restrictions with their COVID guidelines. Alabama is a 19.5-point favorite with a total of 65.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 4 PM ET. The second College Football Semifinals contest is a rematch from last season. Clemson rallied from a 16-0 first-half deficit to defeat Ohio State by a 29-23 score in the Fiesta Bowl on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 62. The Tigers would then lose in the National Championship Game to LSU by a 42-25 score.Clemson won their first seven games before a showdown with Notre Dame in South Bend on November 7th. Playing without junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence who was out after testing positive for COVID, the Tigers played with true freshman D.J. Uigalelei at quarterback to lose in double-overtime, 47-40. Clemson rebounded to crush Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech by a combined 97-27 score before getting their opportunity for revenge against the Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game which they won by a 34-10 score on December 19th as an 11.5-point favorite.Ohio State thought they would not have the opportunity to reach the playoffs again this season when the Big Ten canceled their season because of COVID. When the conference reversed that decision, the Buckeyes won their first three games of the season before COVID caused the cancelation of their game with Maryland on November 4th. Ohio State will later see games with Illinois and Michigan canceled because of COVID issues with those opponents before they experienced their own outbreak before the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern on December 19th. The Buckeyes were without 22 players in that game, including top wide receiver Chris Glave and linebacker Baron Browning. After trailing by a 10-6 halftime score, Ohio State rallied in the second half to defeat the Wildcats by a 22-10 score to place them in the College Football Playoffs. Running back Trey Sermon stepped up to rush for 331 yards to lead the Buckeyes to victory. His effort helped overcome an underwhelming perforce for junior quarterback Justin Fields who completed only 12 of 27 passes for 114 yards with two interceptions. Fields was without some of his favorite targets because of COVID, and there are reports that he suffered a thumb injury that may carry over into this game. Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 68. The game is at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Kickoff is at 8 PM ET on ESPN.The NBA starts the new year with ten games on Friday beginning at 7 PM ET. None of these games are on national television. The college basketball card tips off at 1 PM ET. None of the games on the college basketball schedule are nationally-televised. Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League begins at 12:30 PM ET, with Everton hosting West Ham United as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. At 3 PM ET, Manchester United plays at home at Old Trafford against Aston Villa as a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Both games are on the NBC Sports Network.

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NCAA Football Sugar Bowl: Clemson/Ohio State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jan 01, 2021

The second College Football Semifinals contest is a rematch from last season. Clemson rallied from a 16-0 first-half deficit to defeat Ohio State by a 29-23 score in the Fiesta Bowl on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 62. The Tigers would then lose in the National Championship Game to LSU by a 42-25 score.Clemson won their first seven games before a showdown with Notre Dame in South Bend on November 7th. Playing without junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence who was out after testing positive for COVID, the Tigers played with true freshman D.J. Uigalelei at quarterback to lose in double-overtime, 47-40. Clemson rebounded to crush Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech by a combined 97-27 score before getting their opportunity for revenge against the Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game. Lawrence was back for the rematch with the Irish, and he led the Tigers to a 34-10 victory in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point favorite. He completed 25 of 36 passes for 322 yards with two touchdowns and an interception while adding another 90 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The junior has completed 69.2% of his passes for 2753 yards this season with 22 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in nine games. He also ran for seven touchdowns. Clemson is playing in their sixth straight College Football Playoff under head coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers reached the National Championship Game in four of their five opportunities. This football team has lost only six times since 2015. Clemson scored 44.9 points-per-game, and they averaged 507.6 yards-per-game. Those numbers ranked third and tenth best in the nation. The Tigers held their opponents to 17.5 points-per-game along with 298.5 yards-per-game, 11th, and fifth-best in the country.Ohio State thought they would not have the opportunity to reach the playoffs again this season when the Big Ten canceled their season because of COVID. When the conference reversed that decision, the Buckeyes won their first three games of the season before COVID caused the cancelation of their game with Maryland on November 4th. Ohio State will later see games with Illinois and Michigan canceled because of COVID issues with those opponents before they experienced their own outbreak before the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern on December 19th. The Buckeyes were without 22 players in that game, including top wide receiver Chris Glave and linebacker Baron Browning. After trailing by a 10-6 halftime score, Ohio State rallied in the second half to defeat the Wildcats by a 22-10 score to place them in the College Football Playoffs. Running back Trey Sermon stepped up to rush for 331 yards to lead the Buckeyes to victory. His effort helped overcome an underwhelming perforce for junior quarterback Justin Fields who completed only 12 of 27 passes for 114 yards with two interceptions. Fields was without some of his favorite targets because of COVID, and there are reports that he suffered a thumb injury that may carry over into this game. Fields completed 72.6% of his passes this season for 1521 yards with 15 touchdowns. He ran for another 274 yards with five touchdowns. Fields led an offense that averaged 6.1 yards-per-play to gain 516 yards against Clemson in their semifinals’ classic last year. The initial Big Ten regulations required a 21-day quarantine for any of their players exposed to COVID. This requirement has since been reduced to allow the 22 Buckeyes who missed the Big Ten Championship Game to be eligible to play in this game. Clemson will be without safety Nolan Thomas for the first half of this game because of the targeting penalty he incurred against Notre Dame. Defensive lineman Xavier Thomas is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Tigers’ offensive coordinator Tony Elliott will not be on the field after he tested positive for COVID. Quarterbacks coach Brandon Streeter will call the plays on offense. BetAnySports lists Clemson as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 67.5. The game is at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. ESPN broadcasts the game with kickoff set for 8 PM ET.

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Playoff Scenarios for NFL Week 17

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

Successful handicapping of the Week 17 NFL card requires understanding what is at stake for the teams fighting for playoff positioning.In the AFC, eight teams remain alive for the seven playoff spots. Kansas City is locked as the top seed. They will host their AFC playoff games. They also get the only bye in the wildcard round of the AFC playoffs.Buffalo clinches the second seed with a victory over Miami. They also inherit the second seed with a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland.Pittsburgh has clinched the third seed. They can overtake the Bills for the second seed with a win along with Buffalo losing to the Dolphins.The winner of the AFC South slides into the fourth seed. Tennessee wins the division with a victory at Houston. The Titans also win the AFC South if Indianapolis loses to Jacksonville. Even if they lose to the Texans, Tennessee makes the playoffs with either a Baltimore or Miami loss.Miami makes the playoffs as a wildcard with a win over Buffalo. The Dolphins also make the playoffs with a loss by either Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis. Baltimore makes the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory at Cincinnati. They also make the playoffs with either a loss by the Browns or a loss by the Colts.Cleveland makes the playoffs as a wildcard with a win against the Steelers. The Browns also make the playoffs with a loss by the Colts. Cleveland also slips into the playoffs with a Titans loss along with a win or tie by the Dolphins and a win or a tie by the Ravens.Indianapolis must beat Jacksonville to make the playoffs. The Colts can win the AFC South with a win combining with a Tennessee loss or tie. They can also win the division with a tie along with a Titans loss. Indianapolis makes the playoffs with a victory combined with either a loss/tie from Miami, Baltimore, or Cleveland. Green Bay has won the NFC North which ensures them no worse than the third seed. They clinch the top seed in the NFC with a first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win or tie against Chicago or the Seahawks losing or tying with the 49ers at San Francisco.New Orleans has clinched the NFC South. They can earn the top seed with a win at Carolina along with a Packers’ loss and a Seattle victory.Seattle is the winner of the NFC West. They clinch the top seed with a win at San Francisco and a Green Bay loss along with a Saints’ loss or tie.Tampa Bay has made the playoffs. The Buccaneers are the fifth seed if they defeat Atlanta.The Los Angeles Rams clinch a wildcard spot with a win against Arizona. They also clinch a spot in the playoffs if Chicago loses or ties with the Packers. Chicago makes the playoffs with a win against Green Bay. They also make the playoffs if Arizona loses. If both the Bears and Cardinals tie, Chicago makes the playoffs.Arizona clinches a spot in the playoffs with a victory over the Rams. The Cardinals also make the playoffs with a tie combined with a Bears’ loss.Washington wins the NFC East and inherits the fourth seed with a victory against Philadelphia or a tie combining with Dallas losing or tying against the Giants. Dallas takes the NFC East title with a win over the Giants along with Washington losing or tying against the Eagles. The Cowboys also win the division with a tie combined with a Washington loss.The Giants only win the NFC East if they defeat Dallas and Washington loses to Philadelphia.Good luck - TDG.

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Betting Underdogs: Take the Points or Bet the Moneyline?

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

When betting on an underdog, should you bet the moneyline with the expectation of the upset occurring or should you take the points for the value of the insurance of your team losing but staying inside the number? While there is a lower probability of the underdog winning the game, the oddsmakers account for this with progressively better payouts for those dogs that do pull the upset. In a previous article, I argued that thinking about why you are making the sports bet can help guide the answer to questions like this. I identified three reasons to bet on sports: (1) To Have Fun; (2) To Make Money; (3) To Prove You are Right. I strongly approve of the first two reasons — but I am very worried about those motivated by the bettors looking for validation to prove something from their financial investment.In this case, if you are betting simply to have fun, then the answer is simple: bet in a way that will maximize your enjoyment. Do you want the comfort of some insurance by taking the points? Then take the points! Do you just want to see if your underdog can pull the upset? Then bet the moneyline. If fun is your motivation, then there is not a wrong answer.There is a wrong answer if your goal in betting is to make money. However, it can very tricky to determine the correct answer regarding which bet will be more profitable. The bettor needs to accurately assess the long-term odds and payouts from the situation. Let's look at two examples. In Week 17 in the NFL, bettors have the option at BetOnline at the moment of taking the New York Giants as a +1 point underdog against the Dallas Cowboys at a -110 price or as moneyline underdog priced at +120. Let’s use $100 as the baseline bet. Moneyline bettors save $10 per bet if investing $100 as compared to point spread bettors investing $110 to win $100. However, what happens to the moneyline bettor if Dallas wins by a 17-16 score? Not only do they lose their $100 bet, but they also missed out on pushing the bet from which the point spread bettor benefited. For the moneyline bettor to be profitable in comparison to the point spread bettor, the final score would have to not end at +1 for the dog less than 20% of the time. The moneyline bettor is adding an extra $20 per bet versus the point spread bettor. However, it takes five straight winning bets to neutralize the dog losing by 1 point just once. Let’s look at the Chicago Bears getting +5 points versus the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. BetOnline offers the Bears at the moneyline price of +195. Using $100 as the baseline, moneyline bettors save $10 per loss versus the Chicago backers investing $110 to win $100 taking the +5 points. Out of ten bets, let's say the Bears lose by at least 6 points five times. The point spread bettor is down $50 dollars to the moneyline bettor. But if Chicago covers the point spread the other five times but only pulls the upset twice, the point spread bettor is better off. The point spread bettor wins $500 from those five times the Bears cover. Subtract the $50 in juice the point spread better invested at $110 that moneyline bettor avoided with $100 bets. That is a net of $450. The moneyline bettor wins $390 when Chicago pulls the upset twice. But they still lose the three other $100 bets when the Bears cover the point spread without pulling the upset. Their $90 is dwarfed by the point spread bettor’s $450 for a net loss in all ten bets of -$360. Not even a third Bears upset makes up for the net discrepancy since the $585 in winning tickets get reduced by $200 in the two Chicago point spread covers where they did not win the game as well. It would take two more Bears’ upset victories to turn the tables with the moneyline bettor generating $780 from those four winning tickets minus only one $100 losing ticket where Chicago covered the point spread for a net of $680 and a nice $230 profit over the point spread bettor.Got all that? It gets complicated. And the complexity is magnified because even the most technical sports gambler and handicapper are reduced to making estimated guesses regarding the probability of an upset. At least poker players have the benefit of more precise math when making decisions regarding implied pot odds. Frankly, if a sports bettor thinks they have something close to precise odds on the likelihood of an upset (versus a point spread cover), I would be very skeptical of that person. This sounds like someone trying to prove they are right about the dog being good (or the favorite being bad). I would not trust their math. One of the reasons I do not like the motivation to “prove oneself right” as the reason to make a sports bet is that emotions are involved. I consider emotions as a threat to making sound decisions. This is the reason I always prefer taking the point spread with underdog bets rather than taking the dog with the moneyline. I can live with not making even more money on my underdog bets. However, I am much more likely to go tilt if my underdog loses the game outright on a bad beat or buzzer-beater. I want to avoid negative emotions. And winning feels much better than losing. I will take more winning tickets even if some of them are not as rewarding as the occasional underdog winning outright. Winning promotes momentum and good cheer — and those are emotional conditions that help lead to better decisions for the next bet. For me, that is the route for more fun and to make more money.Best of luck for us — Frank.

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Why Bet on Sports? Two Good Reasons (and Exposing One Bad One).

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

If winning a sports bet was easy, then everybody would be doing it. It is a great feeling to “love” a situation because of an insight you have on a particular game -- and then get validated by being right with the bonus of being rewarded by doubling your money. Unfortunately, easy wins are not the norm for those engaged in the long haul. When a gambler or handicapper goes on the hunt for wins on the daily sports card, the games available combined with the betting options available can seem overwhelming. Should I take the money-line instead of the point spread? What about parlaying those two plays together? Maybe teasing those two plays together would be better? I have found that answering some fundamental questions helps guide my betting decisions on a day-to-day basis. A most basic query for sports gamblers is this: Why are you betting on sports? This sentiment may sound like Jerry Maguire after eating a bad piece of cold pizza in the middle of the night. Yet finding an honest answer to this question can be quite helpful in guiding what game you bet on, what types of bets you make, and how much money you invest. I think there are three reasons to bet on sports. These reasons can overlap — but identifying what is most important for your motivation to make a bet can be quite helpful. The first two reasons below are good ones. I would be very cautious if you are motivated primarily by the third reason. (1) Bet on sports to have fun. This is a great reason. Hopefully, this means that any potential losses are manageable financially and not soul-crushing emotionally. Recreational betting to increase the enjoyment of watching a game on television or following the ESPN sports ticket can really get the dopamine firing away.(2) Bet on sports to make money. This is another great reason. However, accruing profits often means eschewing the fun-factor. It may require avoiding action on Monday Night Football. It also likely means that you should avoid the teasers, parlays, and other novelty bets that (generally) are offering less betting value than a simple straight against-the-spread bet.(3) Bet on sports to prove you are right. This is the dangerous motivation. For starters, making a prediction and then being right about does not require a financial investment. Scream away about it on Twitter or at the bar (then again, please don't do either of those because no one cares). The problem with the bettor looking to prove themselves right is that they will never find the validation they are searching for from a winning ticket. That bettor will likely continue to chase bets in the futile search to prove themselves to the world (or to themselves). The bets contain an emotional component. If you are going to bet with emotion, you should only do it for fun. A gambler betting on emotion is a gambler poised to lose. In future articles, I will get specific in how my “Mission Statement” regarding “why to bet on sports” guides me to make certain bets and avoid other types of bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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2020: Why is it the Year of the Struggling Blue Bloods?

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

What do Penn State and Michigan football have in common with Duke and Kentucky basketball? These are four collegiate programs with a rich tradition of excellence. They are also four programs that have experienced unusually disappointing seasons.The Michigan football team under head coach Jim Harbaugh finished with a 2-4 record. That was the first losing season for the Wolverines in six seasons and their second losing season in the last eleven seasons. Penn State under head coach James Franklin lost their first five games this season before winning their final four games to settle for a 4-5 record. This was the Nittany Lions’ first losing football season in sixteen years going back to 2004.Kentucky has lost six straight games in college basketball. The Wildcats begin the new year with a 1-6 record which is the worst start in the eleven seasons John Calipari has been the head coach of the program. In fact, Kentucky’s six losses are already a many as Calipari has had with his teams at Kentucky in five other full seasons. These results make Duke’s 3-2 record this season seem tame in comparison. Things may have looked direr for the Blue Devils if they had not had some games canceled due to COVID. Yet with Duke’s best win on their resume being against a 3-5 Notre Dame squad, it is fair to say that the season has been underwhelming so far for head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Another thing these four programs have in common is they all have highly regarded (and well-paid) head coaches. These veterans did not suddenly forget how to coach their sport. Of course, this year has been unique for all college football and basketball teams because of the COVID pandemic. While every team has been impacted by the virus, some programs have experienced bigger challenges. What these four blue blood programs also have in common is that they were all bringing back young teams that needed the attention of their highly paid and regarded head coaches. Michigan returned only 11 starters from last year’s team that finished 9-4. Ten of their players were drafted into the NFL last April. They then had their top returning player on offense and defense opt-out of the season to prepare for the 2021 NFL draft. Penn State returned 13 starters from the team that finished 11-2 last season. While eight starters were back on offense, the defense experienced turnover with six starters from last year needing to be replaced. Yet when linebacker Micah Parsons then opted-out of the season to prepare for the NFL draft, the Nittany Lions lost perhaps their most important player. Harbaugh and Franklin did not have the benefit of full spring practices. Fall practices were modified because of COVID protocols. It makes sense that the best coaches are the most impacted by disruptions in the practice schedule since that is one of the areas where they excel versus their peers.Opt-outs heightened the challenge. Because it is the blue blood programs that have more future professional players, they are the ones hurt the most when those players decided to not play this season. The pandemic helped to level the talent playing field.Kentucky and Duke are experiencing similar challenges, albeit without the opt-outs. The Wildcats lost their top six players from last season with only Keon Brooks returning who played significant minutes last season. The Blue Devils lost their top three players for last year. They are two programs that need practice and coaching. What is also not fully appreciated is the loss of coaching time college programs experienced with a full March Madness from the NCAA tournament. The Kentucky and Duke supporting cast from last year that is now being asked to take larger roles would have been better served from that postseason experience. The blue blood programs are the easiest targets. However, critics should be mindful of the ways that the COVID pandemic impacted their programs in ways that other teams did not experience. As with everything, appreciating the context can help lead to a better understanding of the circumstances. Good luck - TDG.

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NHL Central Division Preview for 2021

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

NHL Central Division Preview for 2021Finally hockey is back as we are heading into the New Year and we will have the NHL season underway by mid-January in this unusually scheduled 2021 hockey season that has been impacted by the pandemic. The impact of the pandemic has also resulted in some divisional shuffling for this season. Below I give a quick hitter report on each of the eight teams in the Central Division:Central:Carolina – Losing some veteran leadership could hurt this team a little this season. But hard-nosed coach Rod Brind’Amour continues to get a lot out of this team and seems capable of pushing the right buttons at the right time. Having Jacob Slavin on your blue line is a big plus and the top line with guys like Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teraveinen make this a tough team for opponents with some high-end talent. Look for another playoff run from the Hurricanes this season as they are excellent on special teams too. Chicago – The Blackhawks will be one of the worst teams in the league this season. Goaltending questions, key veteran and leadership departures, and a young group of players still adjusting to a young coach in Jeremy Colliton. It will likely be rough season in Chicago and there is no modified playoff system this year that will allow the Blackhawks to get into the playoffs like they miraculously did last season. Columbus – It is still hard to forecast this team too high but they always are gritty under coach John Tortorella and, therefore, often end up surprising. The fact they lost more man-games to injury than any other team in the NHL last season certainly bodes well for a potential improvement this season. However, their power play was one of the worst in the league last season and overall the team generally struggles to score goals. That said, goaltending play will again be a key for the gritty Blue Jackets. Dallas – Amazing run to the Stanley Cup finals for the Stars last season but they were certainly helped by facing an Avalanche team dealing with a number of key injuries when they met Colorado in the post-season. It will be a tough climb back and the Stars did see some veteran leadership depart heading into this season. This is a playoff team but I don’t see them going as deep this season. Too many other teams are a couple notches above this team. Jamie Oleksiak makes too many mistakes to be on the 2nd defensive pairing for this team in my opinion and that says a lot about the fact this team is just a notch or two below the top teams heading into this season. Detroit – The Red Wings join the Blackhawks as a team likely to challenge for the bottom spot in the league this season. It has been an ongoing rebuild for Detroit that is catching up with them here as they went too long with hanging on to veterans in prior seasons as they wanted to maintain their playoffs streak at a cost of not building for the future. Now the Red Wings are paying for that. All is not totally lost for this season as a healthy Danny DeKeyser will certainly help the blue line plus the Red Wings did add a couple of lower priced veterans to make sure they are at least a little more competitive this season and have some veteran leadership. However, this is still a team with an eye more toward the future than this season. Florida – Joel Quenneville is an excellent coach and the Panthers are talented up front. But the problem has been inconsistent goaltending and problems with the blue line. Florida did make some defensive acquisitions and also made sure to acquire some toughness too. But how long until those guys acclimate to Quenneville’s system? I look for this to be a bit of a transitional season for the Panthers as it takes some time for their defense to jell. Nashville – John Hynes is a quality coach but too many subtractions from this roster for my liking. Gone are Nick Bonino and Kyle Turris and Craig Smith and Austin Watson among others. I know some changes were needed but did the Predators do a little too much maneuvering? Also, Saros is making a bid to replace Rinne as the #1 netminder and he started the entire playoff series against the Coyotes. However, is the sign of Saros’ ascent or Rinnes’s deciine? The fact is the Predators are likely to fall just short of a post-season invite this year in my opinion.Tampa Bay – It is so difficult to repeat in a normal season and this one is not normal and neither was last season’s Stanley Cup winning season for Tampa Bay. That said, I am expecting a bit of a slump for the Lightning this season. Of course they are still one of the elite teams in the NHL and very well coached but you know they will also have targets on their back this season. Keep in mind too that normally Columbus and Dallas would not be in their division but this season they are. That means plenty of games against a pair of revenge-minded teams in the Blue Jackets and Stars. It goes without saying that the Bolts will still be one of the best teams in the league but I do expect a bit of a dropdown this season based on all of the above factors. 

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NHL East Division Preview for 2021

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Dec 31, 2020

NHL East Division Preview for 2021Finally hockey is back as we are heading into the New Year and we will have the NHL season underway by mid-January in this unusually scheduled 2021 hockey season that has been impacted by the pandemic. The impact of the pandemic has also resulted in some divisional shuffling for this season. Below I give a quick hitter report on each of the eight teams in the East Division:East:Boston – Still one of the best teams in the league but the loss of Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara means the veteran leadership of this team has taken a bit of a hit. While the youth movement is likely to pay dividends long-term we could see this team take a small step back in 2021. The Bruins are still solid up front but the loss of two veteran defensemen will be felt some this season. Buffalo – The Sabres are growing well under head coach Ralph Krueger. Their point totals for the season have climbed from 62 to 76 to 81 and Buffalo appears poised to continue forward trajectory this season. However, the key will be newly acquired Taylor Hall performing at the level the very talented left winger is fully capable of. Buffalo looks like a playoff contender. New Jersey – This is a very young team, one of the youngest in the league, but perhaps veteran head coach Lindy Ruff can get the most out of them. Adding left winger Andreas Johnsson plus goalie Corey Crawford certainly has strengthened this team. This team is very talented but also very young. Perhaps the veteran presence of coach Ruff and goaltender Crawford will be enough to help this team through the growing pains. The talent is certainly there but this is also a very tough division. New York Islanders – The Islanders came so close last season but are likely to fall back this season. For one thing, the Isles simply clicked at the right time in the post-season last year and that fueled their impressive run. For another thing, New York lost some key guys and veteran leadership from last season’s team. It is always tough to count out a Barry Trotz coached team but this East Division is loaded for this season.New York Rangers – Of course the only way to go for the Rangers was up but the fact is they could make big strides this season. The Rangers won the draft lottery and got Alexis Lafreniere and he’ll be an immediate contributor. Also, they picked up some other key pieces heading into this season but the key with the Rangers is being consistent. When they play inspired hockey they are a tough team to face but too often they go through the motions and it shows. If coach David Quinn can encourage a little more toughness from this team the potential to fight for a playoff spot this season is certainly there. Philadelphia – The Flyers were great in Alain Vigneault’s first season as the head coach. However, he has done that in other stops too and then generally taken a step back after the first season. This time could be different however as Vigneault has a team loaded with talent and a fantastic netminder Hart whose mentor, Elliott, also signed on for another year. If the Flyers can get a little more from some veteran guys like Voracek and van Riemsdyk, this club certainly has potential for another exciting post-season run. Also, Hart needs to play better on enemy ice. He has been fantastic at home but must improve his road play.  Pittsburgh – There is a bit of an absence of toughness on this team and the core stars like Crosby and Malkin as well as Letang aren’t getting any younger! It does seem like the Penguins are on the fade as other teams in this year’s East Division have been stepping up their game while Pittsburgh has remained a bit flat and unaggressive. Yes the Penguins are going for a 15th straight season of making the playoffs but they just don’t have the roster depth anymore to make a real deep run it appears. Washington – Adding the veteran leadership of Zdeno Chara should help this team which certainly did not need a lot of help to begin with. The Capitals won the Cup just a few seasons ago when they beat the Golden Knights. However, perhaps the issue has been coaching since Barry Trotz went to the Islanders. The Caps may have resolved that now too with the hiring of Peter Laviolette. This is a physical hockey club and this team appears positioned well to make a strong push for a cup with veterans like Alex Ovechkin also fired up about the coaching change and some new faces on the roster.

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