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Ness Notes: Wednesday, Jan 6

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Jan 06, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."As a freshman, DeVonta Smith caught the game-winning pass in overtime of the 2018 College Football Playoff title game against Georgia (note: it was the 2017 season), as the iconic play was coined, "2nd-and-26!" Smith captured college football's most prestigious award last night, becoming the first receiver to win the Heisman Trophy since Michigan's Desmond Howard in 1991. Smith beat out three other finalists, all of whom were QBs; Alabama's Mac Jones, Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Florida's Kyle Trask. Smith won the award with 477 first-place votes to finish with 1,856 points. Lawrence was second with 222 first-place votes and 1,187 points. Smith was CFB's best wide receiver and its most accomplished overall player, leading the FBS in receptions (105), receiving yards (1,641) and receiving TDs (20). Some may be surprised to learn that he's just the THIRD player in Alabama's storied football history to capture the Heisman. For all his wins (323) and national championships (six), Bear Bryant never coached a Heisman winner. Nick Saban has coached all three of 'Bama's Heisman winners, as Mark Ingram won in 2009 and Derrick Henry in 2015. Saban has already matched Bear's six national titles and is it a 'sign of things to come' to note that Alabama won national titles in each of the previous two seasons in which one of its players won the Heisman? CBB: There was just one game between ranked opponents, as No. 15 Rutgers visited No. 23 Michigan St. Rutgers forced 18 turnovers (had 13 steals) but shot 30.5% overall (including 3 of 12 on threes) plus made just 6 of 17 FTs. MSU ended the game on a 17-5 run and won 68-45. Is Izzo's team back on track? The Spartans opened 0-3 in the Big Ten for the first time since the 2001-02 season. FIVE ranked teams met unranked opponents and went 4-1 SU but just 1-4 ATS. The lone SU loser was No. 13 Missouri getting beat badly 78-63 at Mississippi St. Updating the Y-T-D numbers we find the higher ranked team going 21-10 (.677) SU but just 16-15 (51.6%) ATS in meetings between ranked opponents, while ranked teams are 142-26 (.845) SU but only 87-79-2 (52.4%) ATS when taking on an unranked foe.Wednesday's CBB: The lone game between ranked opponents is No. 10 Michigan hosting No. 16 Minnesota. Michigan is 9-0 and the only other teams from major conferences without a loss, Gonzaga and Baylor, hold the top-two spots in the AP rankings. Also note that two other Big Ten schools, Iowa and Wisconsin (both 9-2), are still ranked above Michigan in the AP poll (Iowa is No. 5 and Wisconsin is No. 8). The Wolverines are favored by 7 1/2-points. SEVEN ranked teams are in action tonight against unranked opponents, including three top-10 teams. No. 2 Baylor (-12) is home to Oklahoma, No. 7 Creighton (-5) hosts Seton Hall and No. 9 Tennessee (-8.5) is home to Arkansas. Note that both the Vols and Razorbacks lost for the first time this season last Saturday but while 7-1 Tennessee is ranked in the AP's top-10, 9-1 Arkansas is unranked. One last thing. No. 21 Duke has played just five games (3-2) and will take the court for the first time Duke since a 75-65 victory at Notre Dame back on Dec. 16. The Blue Devils canceled all non-conference games after the ND contest but then also saw ACC games vs Pittsburgh and at Florida State postponed. Duke will host Boston College tonight (hopefully) and is listed as a 12-point favorite.NBA Update: The season just passed its two-week mark yesterday (season tipped Dec 22). The defending champion Lakers have won FOUR in a row and are atop the West with a 6-2 record (just 4-4 ATS). LA also owns the West's best point-differential (plus-10.0), always a great indicator of the strength of a team. Sitting at 5-2 are the Phoenix Suns, who are off to the team's best seven-game start since the Suns opened 6-1 in 2009-10, the last time the franchise made the postseason. Remember the Suns' 8-0 SU & ATS performance in last season's Orlando 'bubble?' It may just have been a sign of things to come. FIVE teams which made last season's Western Conference postseason are currently sub-.500. Portland, Dallas and Denver have all opened 3-4, while Houston is 2-3 and OKC 2-4. Note: Portland currently owns the No. 8 seeded in the West.Moving to the East, the Philadelphia 76ers are an NBA-best 6-1 (5-2 ATS). Orlando and Indiana check in at 5-2. Where's Milwaukee, the team with the NBA's best record in each of the previous two seasons? The Bucks have opened just 4-3 but beware, Milwaukee owns an NBA-best plus-13.5 point-differential. Recent 'dead beats' like the Knicks, Cavs and Hawks have all opened 4-3. I'll close with the Toronto Raptors, who were the 2019 NBA champions and last season, entered the postseason as the East's No. 2 seed with a 53-19 record, despite losing Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers as a free agent. Note that the Raptors' record last season put them just 2 1/2-games back of the Bucks and was a half-game BETTER than the West's No. 1 seed, and eventual NBA champion Lakers! How QUICKLY things can change. The Raptors lost Monday night to the Celtics at their temporary home in Tampa 126-114, falling to 1-5 SU & ATS. NFL Wild Card weekend previewed Thursday (Saturday games) and Friday (Sunday games). Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Wednesday Night Basketball: Baylor/Oklahoma Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jan 06, 2021

The nightcap in the Wednesday night college basketball doubleheader on ESPN2 at 10 PM ET involves two Big 12 teams that will make the NCAA Tournament.Baylor hopes to make a deep run in the Big Dance in March. The Bears returned six players from their rotation that went 26-4 before the March shutdown. They have won their first nine games of the season after their 76-65 victory at Iowa State on Saturday as a 15.5-point favorite. Preseason All-American Jared Butler is averaging 16.0 points-per-game while adding 5.8 assists-per-game. MaCio Teague is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 15.9 points-per-game scoring mark. Baylor’s four-guard small-ball lineup has another two players averaging double-digits in points. UNLV transfer Jonathan Tcharmwa Tchatchoua is contributing 8.0 rebounds-per-game. The Bears rank second in the nation in the Associated Press poll. Their best win was a 13-point triumph against Illinois. COVID has postponed a handful of their games, with a showdown with Gonzaga in December being the most notable cancellation. Head coach Scott Drew has a balanced team that ranks third in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom while ranking fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency in those metrics. Baylor had scored at least 82 points in their first eight games before their 76 points on Saturday against the Cyclones. The Bears are fifth in the country in forcing turnovers in 27.3% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank fifth in the nation by rebounding 40.5% of their missed shots. Baylor is also second in the country, with a 3-point shooting percentage of 43.8%. The Bears are scoring 92.9 points-per-game while outscoring their opponents by 30.3 points-per-game.Oklahoma has won four of their last five games, with their 75-71 win against West Virginia on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. That was the highest-profile win for head coach Lon Kruger’s team, with a victory against TCU being their second-best accomplishment. The Sooners lost by just two points against Texas Tech while suffering a 22-point loss at Xavier to account for their 6-2 record. Kruger had over 70% of the production return last year's 19-12 team. Austin Reaves leads the way this year with a 15.0 points-per-game scoring average while adding 5.4 assists-per-game and 5.0 rebounds-per-game. Forward Brady Manek is adding 12.6 points-per-game along with 4.6 rebounds-per-game. Oklahoma is 21st in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency and 64th on defense at kenpom. The Sooners have been tough to score on inside the arc, with opponents making only 42.2% of their 2-point shots. But Oklahoma is allowing opposing shooters to convert 39.6% of their 3-pointers. This contest continues a brutal stretch of games for Kruger’s team after playing ranked teams in Texas Tech and West Virginia before following up facing the second-ranked team in the country in Waco with a date in Lawrence against a Kansas team ranked sixth in the nation. The Sooners are scoring 81.7 points-per-game and outscoring their opponents by +10.8 points-per-game. BookMaker lists Baylor as an 11.5-point favorite with the total set at 151.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jan 06, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in college basketball and the NBA.The college basketball card tips off at 1 PM ET with two games. Tulsa visits South Florida as a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 127.5 (all odds from BetOnline). St. Bonaventure plays at home against Saint Joseph’s as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 145.At 6 PM ET, Richmond hosts Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network. The Spiders have lost two of their last three games after their 69-66 loss to St. Bonaventure on Saturday to lower their record to a 7-3 mark. The Rams are 5-5 after winning their last two games with a victory against Saint Joseph’s on Saturday by an 85-77 score as a 12-point favorite. Richmond is a 4-point favorite with the total at 145.At 7 PM ET, Tennessee plays at home against Arkansas on ESPN2. The Volunteers lost their first game in eight games on Saturday in a 71-63 upset loss to Alabama as a 10-point favorite. The Razorbacks also suffered their first loss in ten games on Saturday in their 81-68 upset loss to Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite. Tennessee ranks ninth in the AP poll, and they are an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5.Butler hosts Georgetown on FS1. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 after losing on Saturday at Seton Hall, 68-60, as an 8.5-point underdog. The Hoyas have lost three in a row to drop to 3-6 with their 64-60 loss to Marquette as a 4.5-point underdog. Butler is a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 141.Xavier plays at home against St. John’s at 8 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network. The Musketeers dropped to 8-2 with two straight losses after their 85-68 upset loss to Seton Hall as a 3-point favorite last Wednesday. The Red Storm take the court with their 6-4 record for the first time since December 20th when they defeated Georgetown by a 94-83 score as a 4-point favorite. Xavier is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 155.5.Baylor hosts Oklahoma at 9 PM ET on ESPN2. The Bears improved their record to a 9-0 mark on Saturday with their 76-65 win at Iowa State as a 15.5-point favorite. The Sooners have won four of their last five games with their 75-71 victory against West Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor is an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 151.Creighton is at home against Seton Hall in a game broadcast on FS1. The Bluejays are 8-2 with four straight wins after they won at Providence by a 67-65 score as a 4-point favorite. The Pirates have won three in a row to improve their 8-4 mark with their 68-60 win against Butler. Creighton is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5.Texas A&M visits South Carolina on ESPNU. The Gamecocks are 2-2 after they beat Florida A&M by a 78-71 score as a 19-point favorite on Saturday. The Aggies are 6-2 with three wins in their last four games after they defeated Auburn on Saturday by a 68-66 score as a 1-point favorite. South Carolina is a 4-point favorite with the total at 137.5.At 10 PM ET, Utah State plays on the road against New Mexico on the CBS Sports Network. The Aggies have a 7-3 record with six straight wins after they defeated Air Force on the road by a 72-53 score as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Lobos are 3-4 with four straight losses after their 84-74 setback against Nevada on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. Utah State is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5.The college basketball card concludes at 11 PM ET with Boise State hosting Air Force on FS1. The Broncos won their seventh game in a row to raise their record to a 7-1 mark with their 87-86 win at San Jose State as a 26-point favorite on Saturday. The Falcons are 3-5 after their loss at home to Utah State on Saturday. Boise State is an 18-point favorite with the total set at 132.5.The NBA card features 11 games featured by a doubleheader on ESPN. The opening contest on ESPN tips off at 7:35 PM ET with Miami playing at home against Miami in a rematch of their Eastern Conference Finals series. The Heat won  Game 7 of that series by a 125-114 score on September 27th in the bubble as a 3-point underdog. Miami raised their mark this season to a 3-3 record on Monday when they crushed Oklahoma City by a 118-90 score as a 9-point favorite. Boston has won four of their last five games to improve their record to 5-3 with their 126-114 upset win at Toronto on Monday as a 6-point underdog. The Heat are 2.5-point favorites with an over/under of 218.The ESPN doubleheader concludes with the Los Angeles Clippers visiting Golden State for a game starting at 10:05 PM ET. The Warriors have pulled off two straight upset victories to improve to 4-3 after their 137-106 win at home against Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. The Clippers fell to 5-3 on Tuesday when they were upset at home against San Antonio by a 116-113 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

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Ness Notes: Tuesday, Jan 5

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Jan 05, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."Jay Berwanger (Chicago) was the first Heisman winner in 1935 and LSU's Joe Burrow its most recent winner (2019). The 202 winner will be announced tonight at 7:00 ET (ESPN), nearly a month after its traditional ceremony date. There will also be no pomp and circumstance, just another casualty of "The Year of COVID." A trio of QBs, Mac Jones (Ala), Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Kyle Trask (Fla) are joined by WR DeVonta Smith (Ala) as the four finalists. Lawrence was the preseason favorite but if he wins it, it would be more of a lifetime achievement award, as Jones and GTrask have had more prolific seasons. The betting favorite is WR Smith, who is arguably the most-talented player in the nation (pretty much the definition of the award, right?). He would be just the SEVENTH winner not to be a QB or RB. Results and commentary in Wednesday's Notes.CBB: The latest AP poll was released on Monday afternoon and the top-two spots remained the same for the SEVENTH consecutive poll (including the preseason poll). 10-0 Gonzaga maintained its No. 1 ranking (63 of 64 votes), while 9-0 Baylor stayed at No. 2, getting the lone remaining first-place vote. I can't confirm this but "I'm told," that Dabo Swinney voted the Bears No. 1 because after all, Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference, not a 'real' league like the Big 12. 9-1 Villanova is No. 3  but the Wildcats haven't played since Dec 23 and Monday announced it was postponing games scheduled for Jan 5, 8 and 13 due to COVID. The remaining members of the top-10 are No. 4 Texas (8-1), No. 5 Iowa (9-2), No. 6 Kansas (8-2), No. 7 Creighton (8-2), No. 8 Wisconsin (9-2), No. 9 Tennessee (7-1) and No. 10 Michigan (9-0). Dropping out of the top-25 were Big Ten schools Northwestern (19) and Ohio St (25), New to the poll are 8-1 Clemson, which is back in at No. 19 (tied with 8-1 Va Tech) and 7-1 St Louis at No. 23, making its first top-5 appearance since the 2013-14 season. Before catching up on the CBB "numbers' Y-T-D, let me add a few thoughts on the return of 'Shaka Ball' (now in Austin, Tx) and the early season success (for the second straight season) of Juwan Howard of "Fab-Five' fame at his alma mater, Michigan.The Longhorns owned just one previous win in 17 tries at Lawrence when they routed the Jayhawks 84-59 on Saturday, ending a 17-game conference win streak by Kansas. It marked the most lopsided defeat for head coach Bill Self in his 18 seasons coaching the Jayhawks and it matched the largest margin of defeat for ANY Kansas team in the 65-year history of the Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Other than that, it was "just another loss." Texas opened the season No. 19 in the preseason poll and entered the top-10 (at No. 10) back on Dec 21, its first top-10 ranking under Shaka Smart. Texas was up to No. 8 before the win at Kansas and the Longhorns are now No. 4, the school's first top-5 ranking since Feb of the 2011 season under head coach Rick Barnes (Barnes is currently at Tennessee and his Vols are No. 9). Juwan Howard was part of Michigan's famous or infamous "Fab-5" depending on one's point of view (I'll let others argue that one). However, Howard has surely surprised  most (all?) by 'exploding' out of the blocks for the second straight season, as Michigan's head basketball coach. The Wolverines won the Battle 4 Atlantis last season and reached No. 4 in the nation after a 7-0 start. However, Michigan would go 12-12 after that, ending 19-12 when the season was shut down. Michigan opened this season No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but fell out, despite not losing. The Wolverines finally re-entered the poll at No, 25 on Dec 21, jumped to No. 16 on Dec 28 and Monday came in at No. 10. Way to go Juwan!Checking up on games played from last Friday through Monday night. There have been just four matchups of top-25 schools in that span, with the higher ranked team going 3-1 SU (lone loser was Kansas vs Texas) and 2-2 ATS. In games between ranked and unranked opponents, the ranked teams were 9-3 SU but just 6-6 ATS from Fri-Mon. Updating the Y-T-D numbers we find the higher ranked team going 21-9 (.700) SU and 16-14 (53.3%) ATS in meetings between ranked opponents, while ranked teams are 138-25 (.847) SU but just 86-75-2 (53.4%) ATS when taking on an unranked foe.Tuesday's CBB: There is just one game between ranked opponents, as No. 15 Rutgers (+2) is at No. 23 Michigan St but five games between ranked and unranked foes. No. 4 Texas (-12.5) is home to Iowa St, No. 6 Kansas (-6) is at TCU, No. 13 Missouri (-2) is at Mississippi St, No. 18 Texas Tech (-16) is home to Kansas St and No. 19 Clemson (-5) is home to NC State.NBA two-week update in Wednesday's Notes.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jan 05, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in college basketball and the NBA.The college basketball card tips off at 2 PM ET, with Kent State hosting Toledo as a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 145.5 (all odds from BetOnline). At 7 PM ET, ESPNU has Texas Tech playing at home against Kansas State. The Red Raiders fell to an 8-3 record on Saturday with an 82-77 upset loss at home to Oklahoma State as an 8-point favorite. Texas Tech begins the week ranked 18th in the nation by the Associated Press. Kansas State has a 5-6 record after losing at home to TCU on Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. Texas Tech is a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 125.Davidson visits Duquesne at 7 PM on the CBS Sports Network. The Wildcats fell to 5-4 after their 80-74 loss at home to Richmond as a pick ‘em last Wednesday. Duquesne fell to 2-2 on Sunday when they were upset at George Washington as an 8-point favorite. The Dukes are a 1-point favorite with a total of 136.Florida plays at Alabama at 7 PM ET on ESPN2. The Gators are 5-1 with two straight wins after defeating LSU by an 83-79 score as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama has won three in a row after they upset Tennessee in Knoxville as a 10-point underdog on Saturday by a 71-63 score to improve their record to 7-3. The Crimson Tide are 2.5-point favorites with an over/under of 154.The opening game in the Tuesday night college basketball double-header on ESPN at 8 PM ET involves two teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference underperforming despite NCAA Tournament aspirations. North Carolina snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 66-65 victory over Notre Dame as a 9.5-point favorite. The Tar Heels had lost on the road at Georgia Tech and North Carolina State before that win. Head coach Roy Williams’ team has also experienced high-profile losses at Iowa and on a neutral court against Texas on a buzzer-beating shot. North Carolina has posted victories against Kentucky and Stanford.Miami (FL) has opened the season 4-4 after losing two straight games along with four of their last five contests. The Hurricanes last played on Saturday, where they lost at home to Clemson, 66-65, as a 4.5-point underdog. That setback came on the heels of a 2-point loss at Virginia Tech. North Carolina is a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 140.5.Michigan State hosts Rutgers on ESPN 2 in a battle of ranked Big Ten foes at 9 PM ET. The Spartans ended a three-game slide on Saturday with an 84-77 victory at Nebraska as a 9.5-point favorite. MSU is 7-3 and ranks 23rd in the AP poll. The Scarlet Knights have lost two of their last three games after losing a nail-biter at home to Iowa on Saturday, 77-75, as a 0.5-point underdog. Rutgers has a 7-2 record, and they rank 15th by the AP. Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite with the over/under at 152. UConn travels to Marquette for a 9 PM ET tip on FS1. The Huskies rebounded from their first loss in five games to start the season against Creighton by defeated DePaul, 82-61, as an 8.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Marquette snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 64-60 victory at Georgetown as a 4.5-point favorite to improve their 6-5 record. The Golden Eagles are 4.5-point favorites with a total of 139. Memphis visits Central Florida on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Tigers have won two of their last three games to improve their record to a 6-4 mark with their 58-57 win against South Florida as a 10-point favorite last Tuesday. The Knights are 3-3 after losing two in a row on Saturday with a 68-61 upset loss at South Florida as a 1-point favorite. Memphis is a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 137.The nationally-televised college basketball card concludes at 10 PM ET on ESPN, with Kansas playing at TCU. The Jayhawks last played on Saturday when they were stunned at home against Texas in an 84-59 loss as a 4.5-point favorite. Kansas is ranked sixth by the AP with an 8-2 record. The Horned Frogs have won five in a row with their victory at Kansas State on Saturday, 67-60, as a 3.5-point favorite. TCU raised their record to 9-2. The Jayhawks are a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 138.5.Five games are on the NBA docket. The card starts at 7:30 PM ET with Brooklyn hosting Utah. Chicago visits Portland at 10:30 PM ET to conclude the slate. None of the games are on national television.

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NCAA Tuesday Night Basketball: North Carolina/MIami Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jan 05, 2021

The opening game in the Tuesday night college basketball double-header on ESPN at 8 PM ET involves two teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference underperforming despite NCAA Tournament aspirations. North Carolina snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 66-65 victory over Notre Dame as a 9.5-point favorite. The Tar Heels had lost on the road at Georgia Tech and North Carolina State before that win. Head coach Roy Williams’ team has also endured high-profile losses at Iowa and on a neutral court against Texas on a buzzer-beating shot. North Carolina has posted victories against Kentucky and Stanford.Williams’ experienced his worst record as the North Carolina head coach last year, with his team finishing with a 14-19 record. While Cole Anthony moved on to the NBA from that team, Williams did see most of the contributors last season return. He buttressed that group with one of the top-three incoming freshmen classes in the nation with three five-star recruits and another three four-star recruits. The Tar Heels continue to struggle to make baskets. Last year’s team had an effective field goal percentage of 46.4%, with that group making only 30.4% of their shots from the 3-point line. North Carolina has an effective field goal percentage of 46.5% this season, and they are making only 28.7% of their 3-pointers. Those marks rank 265th and 288th in the country. The Tar Heels are crashing the boards like a typical Williams-coached team as they rank third in the nation by rebounding 41.4% of their missed shots.  Miami (FL) has opened the season 4-4 after losing two straight games along with four of their last five contests. The Hurricanes last played on Saturday, where they lost at home to Clemson, 66-65, as a 4.5-point underdog. That setback came on the heels of a 2-point loss at Virginia Tech. Expectations were high for head coach Jim Larranaga’s team that has finished below .500 in the last two seasons after four straight 20-win seasons. Larranaga brought back all but one starter and another rotation player from the team last year that finished 15-16. He added two freshmen rated in the top-100 along with Cincinnati transfer 7’1 Nysier Brooks. Yet injuries have ravaged the Hurricanes, which left them to just six scholarship players at a low point in mid-December. Two starters in the frontcourt, Sam Waldenburg and Rodney Miller, are out the season. Their top-40 rated freshman Earl Timberlake missed time. Kameron McGusty, the team’s second-leader scorer last season, has been out with a hamstring injury. The most significant loss has been from the absence of pre-season All-American point guard Chris Lykes who has been out since early December with an ankle injury. McGusty returned to the court on Saturday, where he played 28 minutes and scored 9 points, but his status in this game remains in doubt after experiencing soreness afterward. Lykes remains out for this game. The bright side of all this attrition for Larranaga has been that rising sophomores Isaiah Wong and Harlond Beverly have stepped up to fill in the void with scoring and leadership. Miami won as an underdog against Purdue but got upset against Florida Gulf Coast and lost to Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech in addition to the Tigers on Saturday.Despite the losses on their frontline, the Hurricanes are still getting quality play from their interior players. They rank 32nd in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 21.9% of their missed shots. Miami is also blocking 14.2% of their opponent’s shot attempts, ranking 20th best in the nation. Larranaga’s team is not offering many freebies to their opposition either. They have a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 20.2%, sixth-lowest in the nation. The Hurricanes are struggling to score points. They rank 304th with a 28.0% clip from 3-point land. The ESPN broadcasts start at 8 PM ET. BetOnline lists North Carolina as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 140.5.

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2021 NCAA Football Championship Preview

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Jan 04, 2021

OHIO STATE (7-0 / 4-3 ATS) vs ALABAMA (12-0 / 8-4 ATS) - @ Hard Rock Stadium, Miami FL  ODDS AT BETNOW.EU LINE – Alabama -7.5MONEY LINE – Alabama -280 / OSU +240TOTAL – 75  OSU PASS DEFENSE vs ALABAMA PASS OFFENSE – While the Buckeyes rolled through their shortened Big 10 winning 5 of their 6 games by double digits, their pass defense was not good.  That’s actually an understatement as OSU finished dead last in the conference in pass defense despite not facing a single QB ranked inside the top 50 in passing efficiency.  The best passing QB the Buckeyes faced was Indiana’s Michael Penix and he lit them up for 491 yards passing and 5 TD’s.  Now they face Bama’s Mac Jones who ranks as the #1 pass efficiency QB in the nation along with the deepest set of WR’s they’ve seen by far.  Despite last week’s loss, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence did complete 69% of his passes for 400 yards vs this pass defense.  HUGE EDGE TO BAMA  OSU RUSH DEFENSE vs ALABAMA RUSH OFFENSE – The Bucks rush defense was extremely impressive last week.  They completely shut down the Tigers running attack allowing only 44 yards on 22 carries.  Clemson star RB Etienne was held to 32 yards on the ground with a long of just 8 yards.  The Buckeyes are now ranked 2nd nationally defending the run allowing only 89 YPG.  The Crimson Tide faced a Notre Dame defense last week that ranks 17th vs the run and put up 140 yards rushing.  The three top 20 rush defenses that Alabama faced this season (ND, Georgia & Texas A&M) held them to 140, 147, and 109 on the ground this year on 4.1 YPC.  That’s a full 1 YPC under their season average.  EDGE OHIO STATE    OSU PASS OFFENSE vs ALABAMA PASS DEFENSE – Justin Fields was lights out vs Clemson throwing for 385 yards and 13.8 yards per attempt.  He also threw for 6 TD’s and had a QBR of 99.  His 13.8 yards per attempt and 99 QBR were by far the best numbers the Clemson defense has allowed this season.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on the info coming out of Columbus this week as Fields sustained a rib injury vs the Tigers and while he continued to play, he did say it was very painful and affected his throwing motion.  Bama limited Irish QB Ian Book to 229 yards passing and a QBR of 72.  For comparison’s sake, Book passes for 219 yards with a QBR of 60 just 2 weeks earlier.  That’s the same Clemson pass defense that was shredded by Fields.  The Tide faced 2 other QB’s this year ranked in the top 10 in efficiency, Florida’s Kyle Trask and Mississippi’s Matt Corral.  Trask went for 408 yards on 10.2 yards per attempt with 3 TD’s and QBR of 91.6.  Corral put up 365 yards passing on 13.0 yards per attempt with 2 TD’s and a QBR of 96.  EDGE OHIO STATE IF FIELDS IS HEALTHY  OSU RUSH OFFENSE vs ALABAMA RUSH DEFENSE – OSU’s rushing attack has really kicked it into high gear over their 2 games.  In the Big 10 Championship game vs Northwestern they ran the ball for 399 yards on over 9.0 YPC.  They followed that up by hitting Clemson for 254 yards rushing on nearly 6.0 YPC.  Those efforts were against two very solid defenses as Northwestern has allowed 4.4 YPC on the year and Clemson just 3.0 YPC.  Starting RB Trey Sermon has done most of the damage with 524 yards rushing in those 2 games.  His backup Master Teague is injured and did not play vs Clemson.  The Buckeyes rush offense now ranks 5th nationally.  They take on a Bama defense that allows just 110 YPG on the ground ranking them 13th.  Last week they allowed Notre Dame to gain 139 YPG on the ground, well below their season average of 211 YPG.  The Irish rank 24th in rushing and they were the best running team the Tide have faced this season.  The 2 best SEC running teams they faced were Texas A&M (27th nationally) and Ole Miss (26th) and the Bama defense has mixed results in those games.  They held the Aggies to just over 100 yards rushing but the Rebels gashed them for 268.  That game vs Ole Miss was early in the season and Alabama’s defense has improved drastically since them.  EDGE EVEN  CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY – It’s been a mix of close calls & blowouts in the CFP National Championship game.  There have been 6 championship games played since the CFP started with three of those games being decided by 5 points or less and the other three decided by 17 or more.  Alabama has won 2 of those National Championship games in 2016 & 2018 while Ohio State won the inaugural game in 2015.  Bama comes in as the #1 seed and OSU is the #3 seed.  Only one top seed has won the title and that was last season when LSU topped Clemson 42-25.  No #3 seed has ever won the National Championship.  AGAINST THE SPREAD – Last year was the first time the favorite (LSU) covered in the National Championship game.  The dog is 5-1 ATS.  It’s also been a high scoring game with the OVER going 5-1 with the average total points scored at 65.  The teams combined to score at least 60 points in 5 of the 6 championship games with the highest scoring game being 85 (Clemson 45, Bama 40) and the lowest being 49 (Bama 26, Georgia 23).  The current total on this game is 75 which is the highest ever set in the National Championship game.

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Ness Notes: Monday, Jan 4

by Larry Ness

Monday, Jan 04, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."NFL Week 17 recap: As I always like to do, I'll start at the bottom. The Jacksonville Jaguars opened the 2020 season by upsetting the Indianapolis Colts 27-20 at home in Week 1 and proceeded to lose their next 15 games, capped by Sunday's 28-14 loss at Indy. It also deserves a mention that while the Jags finished with the NFL's worst record, their 7-9 ATS matches that of the 14-2 KC Chiefs, who finished with an NFL-best record but also a 7-9 ATS mark. As it so often is, the point spread is a great 'equalizer.' The win by the Colts allowed them to earn the NFL's seventh and final seed, despite the fact that they were one of four AFC teams to finish 11-5 (love those tiebreakers). The Colts have to consider themselves fortunate, as the NFL added a third wild card team for the 2020 season. Over in the NFC, the Chicago Bears lost 35-16 at home to the Packers but were able to get that 'lucky' No. 7 seed with their 8-8 record. The Arizona Cardinals 'fell flat' in LA against the Rams losing 18-7 and also finished 8-8 but lost to Chicago in a tiebreaker. Ok, let's now start at the top and work down.The KC Chiefs will open their defense of their Super title as the AFC's No. 1 seed and get the lone bye in the divisional round of the playoffs in two weeks. The 13-3 Buffalo Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and got the AFC's No. 2 seed.  Pittsburgh opened the season 11-0 but finished 12-4. However, it was good enough for the AFC's No. 3 seed, while Tennessee's 41-38 win over Houston earned them the No. 4 seed, as the 11-5 Titans captured the AFC South division in a tiebreaker over the Colts. Baltimore finished the season on a five-game winning streak and at 11-5 earned the No. 5 seed, while the 11-5 Browns have the No. 6 seed, ending the NFL's longest postseason drought (last made the playoffs in 2002). Green Bay matched its 13-3 record from the 2019 season but unlike last season when the 49ers, Packers and Saints all finished at 13-3, the Packers have the NFC's top record and get the No. 1 seed and that opening weekend bye. The 12-4 Saints edged the 12-4 Seahawks (via a tiebreaker) to capture the No. 2 seed (Seattle is No. 3) and the No. 4 seed goes to 7-9 Washington, which won the NFC 'Least.' The TB 'Bradys' finished 11-5 and will make the franchise's 1st playoff appearance in 13 years. Brady had four TD passes giving him 40 on the season. Tampa Bay's first playoff game in 13 years could be a lucky 13, as Tampa Bay earned the coveted No. 5 seed, giving them a wild card matchup with 7-9 Washington. The LA Rams gutted out an 18-5 win at home with John Wolford at QB against Arizona, earning the No. 6 seed with a 10-6 record. I'll have much more on the wild card weekend matchups in Thursday's Notes (Saturday games) and Friday's Notes (Sunday games).FIVE of last season's eight division-winners failed to repeat in 2020, with only Baltimore (14-2 winner of the AFC North last year) making the expanded playoff field in 2020 at 11-5. No team fell harder than the Pats, who had won 11 straight AFC East titles (17 of the last 19) but finished 7-9 in 2020. San Francisco won the NFC West with a 13-3 record last season and led the Chiefs by 10 points midway through the fourth quarter of last year's Super Bowl (would lose 31-20), but finished an injury-ravaged 2020 season with a 6-10 record. Houston entered the 2020 season having won the AFC South FOUR times in the previous five years but finished 4-12, while the Eagles won the NFC East last season at 9-7, only to end the 2020 season at 4-11-1 (last in the NFL"s worst division). Minnesota was a wildcard team in 2019 (10-6) but will be sitting the postseason out in 2020, after a 7-9 season. With two extra playoff spots available in 2020, there are SEVEN teams in the current playoff field which sat out the 2019 postseason. In order of best records, that list includes Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Indianapolis in the AFC, as well as Tampa Bay, the LA Rams, Chicago and Washington in the NFC. The 'unluckiest' team to miss the 2020 postseason field has to be the 10-6 Dolphins, who tied the Buffalo Bills for the best ATS record among all 32 teams (Bills and Dolphins were both 11-5). In case anyone was wondering, the Dallas Cowboys ended the season with the league's worst ATS record at 5-11 (Cowboys were 6-10 SU). Home teams went 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS, with home dogs going 3-7 SU but 7-3 ATS. The Week 17 games averaged 52.4 PPG with 10 overs and six unders. I'll calculate regular season Y-T-D numbers in Thursday's Notes.Tuesday's Notes will be a BKB-only edition, checking in on the new AP poll (released Monday afternoon) in CBB and games played from Friday-Monday. Tonight concludes the second week of NBA action (opened Dec 22) and I'll offer some early reflections.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Monday Night Basketball: Oklahoma State/West Virginia Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 04, 2021

The first ESPN Big Monday of 2021 features two Big 12 teams that appear poised to be players in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia visits Oklahoma State in Stillwater on ESPN2 for a 9 PM ET tipoff.The Cowboys raised their record to a 7-2 mark on Saturday with their 82-77 upset victory in overtime at Texas Tech as an 8-point underdog. Oklahoma State raced out to a 37-28 halftime lead before the Red Raiders rallied in the final 20 minutes to force the additional five minutes of play. It had to be encouraging for head coach Mike Boynton that his team pulled the upset despite Cade Cunningham being just the fourth-leading scorer with 13 points. The 6'8" freshman point guard might be the number one pick in the NBA draft in June. He is scoring 18.4 points-per-game while adding 5.8 rebounds-per-game and 3.8 assists-per-game. Avery Anderson III led the way with 17 points on 6 of 7 shooting while leading the team by playing 40 minutes. Boynton recently inserted him into the starting lineup to give his team a three-guard look with the hopes of providing the team better scoring in the half-court. Last year’s leading scorer, Isaac Likekele, also had 17 points while adding seven rebounds. The junior is the second-leading scorer on the team with a 10.9 points-per-game average while adding 8.1 rebounds-per-game and 3.7 assists-per-game. Oklahoma State has also registered high-profile victories against Wichita State and an upset against Marquette. The Cowboys’ two losses are to TCU and at Texas.West Virginia lost their third game of the season on Saturday in a 75-71 loss at Oklahoma. That was the first time that the team played without two frontline players in head coach Bob Huggins' rotation. Isaiah Cottrell suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in their previous game against Northeastern. The four-star freshman was averaging only 5.6 minutes-per-game, but he gave the Mountaineers’ depth at forward with potential upside as the team’s highest-rated freshman. Even more significant loss was Oscar Tshiebwe, who stepped away from the program for personal reasons on Friday. The sophomore led the team with a 10.2 points-per-game scoring average last season but had taken a step back this year by scoring 8.1 points-per-game while adding 3.8 rebounds-per-game. West Virginia ranks ninth in the current Associated Press poll with an 8-3 record. They have resume-building wins against Western Kentucky and Richmond. The Mountaineers' other two losses were against Gonzaga and Kansas, which are teams ranked first and third in the AP poll. Huggins still has plenty of talent on his roster. Sophomore Miles McBride leads the team with a 14.8 points-per-game scoring average, and junior forward Derek Culver is adding 13.0 PPG with 9.5 rebounds-per-game. Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil are also both averaging over 10 PPG.These two teams last met last season when the Mountaineers defeated the Cowboys by a 65-47 score as a home favorite laying 10.5 points. BetAnySports lists West Virginia as a 1-point road favorite.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, EPL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 04, 2021

The Monday sports card features college basketball and the NBA and the completion of Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips thing off at noon ET with Northern Colorado playing at Montana. The Grizzlies are a 5.5-point favorite on their home court, with the total set at 130.5 (all odds from BetOnline).There are three nationally-televised games on Monday. At 7 PM ET, Southern Illinois and Drake play the second game of their back-to-back contests in Des Moines. Drake continued their perfect start to the season yesterday with their 11th straight victory by defeating the Salukis by a 73-55 score as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 139. The CBS Sports Network broadcasts this rematch.The first ESPN Big Monday of 2021 features two Big 12 teams that appear poised to be players in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia visits Oklahoma State in Stillwater on ESPN2 for a 9 PM ET tipoff.The Cowboys raised their record to a 7-2 mark on Saturday with their 82-77 upset victory in overtime at Texas Tech as an 8-point underdog. Oklahoma State raced out to a 37-28 halftime lead before the Red Raiders rallied in the final 20 minutes to force the additional five minutes of play. It had to be encouraging for head coach Mike Boynton that his team pulled the upset despite Cade Cunningham being just the fourth-leading scorer with 13 points. The 6’8 freshman point guard might be the number one pick in the NBA draft in June. He is scoring 18.4 points-per-game while adding 5.8 rebounds-per-game and 3.8 assists-per-game. Oklahoma State has also registered high-profile victories against Wichita State and an upset against Marquette. The Cowboys’ two losses are to TCU and at Texas.West Virginia lost their third game of the season on Saturday in a 75-71 loss at Oklahoma. The Mountaineers rank ninth in the current Associated Press pill with an 8-3 record. They have resume-building wins against Western Kentucky and Richmond. West Virginia's other two losses were against Gonzaga and Kansas, which are teams ranked first and third in the AP poll. The Mountaineers are a 1-point road favorite with the total at 143.5. ESPNU broadcasts Jackson State visiting Alabama State at 9 PM ET in Southwest Athletic Conference action. The Tigers are a 5.5-point road favorite with the total at 132.5.Nine games are on the NBA schedule for Monday, with two games tipping things off at 7 PM ET. The card concludes at 10 PM ET with Sacramento playing at Golden State. None of these games are on national television. The final match in Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League has Liverpool visiting Southampton at 3 PM ET. The Reds last played on Wednesday in a nil-nil draw at Newcastle United. Liverpool begins the day tied in first place with Manchester United after the weekend action, so Jurgen Klopp’s side will need some a result to retake the top spot on their own. Southampton also comes off a 0-0 draw in their last game at home against West Ham United. The Saints are in a three-way tie with Chelsea and Aston Villa for seventh place in the EPL table. Liverpool is a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75.

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Eagles/Football Team Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 03, 2021

Sunday Night Football on NBC will determine the first place in the NFC East, which inherits the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs next week.A victory for Washington clinches the NFC East and hosting a wildcard playoff game next week. The Football Team also makes the playoffs as the NFC East champion with a tie combining with a Dallas loss or tie earlier in the afternoon against the New York Giants.Washington has lost two straight games to fall to a 6-9 record after their 20-13 loss to Carolina last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins was benched mid-game after completing 14 of 28 passes for 154 yards with two interceptions. After Haskins violated league policy by avoiding the media after the game, head coach Ron Rivera had enough and released him on Monday from the team. Backup Taylor Heinicke completed 12 of 19 passes for 137 yards with a touchdown while adding 22 yards on the ground. Rivera hopes that Alex Smith can return for this game after nursing a calf injury the last two weeks. The veteran has completed 66.4% of his passes this season for 1420 yards in seven games. He has thrown four touchdown passes but with six interceptions. Smith is officially listed as questionable, but he did participate in limited reps on Friday during the team’s last practice. Reports seemed good on Saturday. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Antonio Gibson are also questionable with injuries that did keep them from practice on Friday.Philadelphia was eliminated from the playoffs after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point favorite. The Eagles have stumbled down the stretch with six losses in their last seven games. They raced out to a 14-3 lead against the Cowboys but did not score in the second half. Reports on Saturday indicated that the Philadelphia organization will retain head coach Doug Pederson for next season despite the disappointing 4-10-1 record. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz declared on Saturday that he is stepping away from football next year. The Eagles declared nine players out for this game on Saturday, including many starters: running back Miles Sanders; wide receiver DeSean Jackson; tackle Jordan Malta; tight end Dallas Goedert; tight end Richard Rodgers; defensive end Derek Barnett; defensive tackle Fletcher Cox; linebacker Shaun Bradley; linebacker Duke Riley. Philadelphia has 14 other players either out the season or on Injured Reserve, including a handful of offensive linemen that have left that unit in shambles all season. Cornerback Jalen Mills is out with COVID. Cornerback Michael Jacquet is questionable with a calf injury. Wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Quez Watkins were not listed anywhere, which means they are not in the team’s plans for the game. Rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts start for the fourth straight week. He completed 21 of 39 passes last week against the Cowboys for 342 yards with a touchdown but two interceptions. He added 69 rushing yards. Since Week 14, when he took over under center, the Eagles have averaged 437.3 yards-per-game which is the second-highest mark in the league and 120 yards more per game than their average, with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Philadelphia averaged 171.3 rushing yards-per-game while generating 25 big plays that rank fourth and tied for eighth in the NFL.BetAnySports lists Washington as a 4-point favorite with the total at 44. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NCAA Basketball, and EPL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 03, 2021

The Sunday sports card features Week 17 in the NFL, along with action in the NBA and college basketball, and the continuation of Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League.The NFL regular season concludes with all sixteen Week 17 games on Sunday. Seven kick off the card at 1 PM ET. The primary game on CBS has Cleveland hosting Pittsburgh. The Steelers clinched the third seed in the AFC playoffs last week. They can move up to the second seed with a victory over the Browns and a Buffalo loss to Miami. Yet Pittsburgh is benching many of their starters, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for this game. Cleveland clinches a wildcard spot with a victory. They can also make the playoffs with a loss if Indianapolis also loses to Jacksonville. The Browns can make the playoffs even with a loss if Tennessee loses to Houston, combined with a Miami win or tie against the Bills and a win or tie by Baltimore. Cleveland is a 10-point favorite with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from BetOnline).The national game on Fox at 1 PM ET has Dallas playing at New York against the Giants. The Cowboys win the NFC East with a victory along with a Washington loss or tie against Philadelphia. The Giants claim the NFC East division title with a win combined with a Washington loss to the Eagles. Dallas is a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Eight games start at 4:25 PM ET. Fox has Green Bay visiting Chicago at Soldier Field. The Packers have already won the NFC North. They can claim the top seed in the NFC playoffs with a win or tie in this game. Green Bay also clinch the top seed if Seattle loses or ties against San Francisco. The Bears make the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory against the Packers. Chicago also makes the playoffs even with a loss if Arizona loses to the Los Angeles Rams. If Chicago and Arizona end in ties, the Bears make the playoffs. Green Bay is a 4-point road favorite with a total of 49.5.CBS has Arizona playing in Los Angeles against the Rams at 4:25 PM ET. The Cardinals make the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory. They also make the playoffs with a tie along as the Bears lose. Los Angeles clinches a wildcard spot with a win. The Rams also make the playoffs even with a Chicago loss or tie. Los Angeles will have to rely on John Wolford at quarterback given the thumb injury to Jared Goff that will keep him out. Arizona is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 41.Sunday Night Football on NBC at 8:20 PM ET has Washington playing at Philadelphia. A victory for Washington clinches the NFC East and hosting a wildcard playoff game next week. The Football Team also makes the playoffs as the NFC East champion with a tie combining with a Dallas loss or tie earlier in the afternoon against the New York Giants. Philadelphia was eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 33-17 upset loss at Dallas a 3-point favorite. Washington is a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 46.The college basketball card tips off at noon ET with Elon playing at Northeastern. At 4 PM ET, Lehigh plays at Lafayette on the CBS Sports Network. Rhode Island hosts Saint Joseph’s at 4:30 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network. The Rams are an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.5. At 6 PM ET, Drake plays at home against Southern Illinois on ESPNU as an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 141.5. The CBS Sports Network has Navy playing at Bucknell. Houston visits SMU at 7 PM ET on ESPN2. The Cougars are ranked fifth in the nation in the Associated Press poll. They are a 2.5-point road favorite with the over/under at 136.Eight games are in the NBA. None of the games are on national television.Matchweek 17 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. The Fulham/Burnley contest got postponed after a potential COVID outbreak with Fulham.At 9:15 AM ET, Leicester City visits Newcastle United on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.5. The NBC Sports Network double-header concludes with Manchester City traveling to Stamford Bridge to play Chelsea at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75.

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