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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/07/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 07, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The college football season continues its postseason with the six remaining conference championship games. Two NCAAF championship games kick off at noon et. Miami (OH) battles Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan on ESPN. The RedHawks are a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 44 (all odds from DraftKings). Arizona State faces Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on ABC. The Sun Devils are a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Texas challenges Georgia in the SEC championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on ABC at 4:00 p.m. ET. The Longhorns are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5. Louisiana-Lafayette hosts Marshall in the Sun Belt Conference championship game on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 58. Two more games conclude the NCAAF card at 8:00 p.m. ET. SMU plays Clemson in the ACC championship game at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on ABC. The Mustangs are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. Oregon goes against Penn State in the Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana on CBS. The Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5. The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets at 1:10 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 219.5. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Denver Nuggets play in Washington against the Wizards as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in New Orleans to play the Pelicans as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The New York Knicks play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224. The Dallas Mavericks visit Toronto to play the Raptors as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 236. Two games complete the NBA card at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat are home against the Phoenix Suns as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Boston Celtics host the Memphis Grizzlies as a 7-point favorite with a total of 234.5.The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 1:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres play at home against the Utah Hockey Club as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Boston Bruins are home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets play in Chicago against the Blackhawks at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in New York to play the Islanders at 5:07 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Florida Panthers host the San Jose Sharks at 6:07 p.m. ET as a -380 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Detroit to play the Red Wings as a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Washington Capitals play in Montreal against the Canadiens as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Pittsburgh to play the Penguins as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Ottawa Senators play at home against the Nashville Predators as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Los Angeles Kings are home against the Minnesota Wild at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers host the St. Louis Blues at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Matchweek 15 in the English Premier League begins with five matches. Liverpool visits Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Three more EPL matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Aston Villa plays at home against Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Newcastle United plays at Brentford on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester City is at Crystal Palace as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United is at home against Nottingham Forest on NBC at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAAF, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/06/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 06, 2024

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The college football season begins its postseason with three conference championship games. Jacksonville State hosts Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship game on the CBS Sports Network at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Gamecocks had won eight games in a row before their 19-17 loss at Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. The Hilltoppers lost two games in a row before that victory last week. Jacksonville State is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 57.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Two more NCAAF games kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Tulane travels to play at Army West Point in the American Athletic Conference championship game on ABC. The Green Wave had won eight games in a row before their 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Black Knights come off a 29-24 victory against UTSA as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tulane is a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 45.5.Boise State plays at home against UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game on Fox. The Broncos are on a ten-game winning streak after their 34-18 victory against Oregon State as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday. The Rebels are on a four-game winning streak with their 38-14 win against Nevada as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Orlando Magic play in Philadelphia against the 76ers at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 210.5. Two more NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Hawks are home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 231. The Boston Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers are in Chicago to play the Bulls as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 247. The Sacramento Kings visit the San Antonio Spurs as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 2-point favorite with a total of 220.5. The Portland Trail Blazers are home against the Utah Jazz as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New Jersey Devils host the Seattle Kraken as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Washington Capitals as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. Three games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars play in Vegas against the Golden Knights as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Vancouver Canucks host the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild are in Anaheim to face the Ducks as a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 23 games between Division I opponents. One NCAAB game is on major national television. West Virginia plays at home against Georgetown on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/05/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 05, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 14 in the National Football League kicks off with one game. The Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers on Amazon Prime Video at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Lions are on a ten-game winning streak after their 23-20 win as a 10-point favorite last Thursday. The Packers won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 30-17 victory against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 51.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Denver Nuggets as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 236.5. The Dallas Mavericks travel to Washington to play the Wizards as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 235. Two more NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Toronto against the Raptors as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.5. New York is home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 15-point favorite with a total of 217.Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The San Antonio Spurs host the Chicago Bulls as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 237. The Phoenix Suns are in New Orleans to play the Pelicans as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 221.5. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Sacramento Kings as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 241.5. The Houston Rockets visit Golden State to play the Warriors at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 221.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Carolina Hurricanes are home against the Colorado Avalanche as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers play in Philadelphia to face the Flyers as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Nashville Predators are in Montreal to go against the Canadiens as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Winnipeg Jets travel to Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the San Jose Sharks as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Ottawa Senators play at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 6.The New York Islanders are home against the Seattle Kraken at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 9:07 p.m. ET. The Calgary Flames host the St. Louis Blues as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -278 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 23 games between Division I opponents. One NCAAB game is on major national television. Penn State is home against Purdue on FS1 at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 149.5. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches. Fulham hosts Brighton and Hove Albion at 2:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Bournemouth plays at home against Tottenham on the USA Network at 3:15 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/04/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 04, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Four NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2-point favorite. The Orlando Magic travel to Philadelphia to play the 76ers as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 206.5. The Indiana Pacers play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 219. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are home against the Atlanta Hawks at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 237.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Los Angeles to face the Clippers at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 212. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL  games drop the puck at 7:37 p.m. ET. The Boston Bruins visit Chicago to play the Blackhawks on TNT as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Nashville Predators as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars play in Los Angeles against the Kings on TNT as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Anaheim to play the Ducks as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.The college basketball schedule has 56 games between Division I opponents. Nine NCAAB games are on major national television. Two NCAAB games start at 6:30 p.m. ET. Florida Atlantic travels to Florida International on the CBS Sports Network as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 156. UConn plays at home against Baylor on FS1 as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Florida is home against Virginia on ESPN at 7:15 p.m. ET as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Two NCAAB games begin at 8:30 p.m. ET. Kansas plays at Creighton on FS1 as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 152.5. Seton Hall hosts the New Jersey Institute of Technology on the CBS Sports Network as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Three more NCAAB games start at 9:00 p.m. ET. Texas Tech plays at home against DePaul on ESPNU as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. Mississippi State is home against Pittsburgh on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149.5. Duke hosts Auburn on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 147. San Diego State is at Fresno State on FS1 as a 14-point road favorite with an over/under of 141. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Four EPL matches start at 2:30 p.m. ET. Manchester City hosts Nottingham Forest as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Liverpool visits Newcastle United as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at Southampton as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Everton plays at home against Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Two more matches conclude the EPL card at 3:15 p.m. ET. Arsenal is home against Manchester United as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Aston Villa hosts Brentford on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 03, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket in the NBA Cup. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Washington Wizards as a 16.5-point favorite, with the total set at 236.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 208.5. The Milwaukee Bucks play in Detroit against the Pistons as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 223.5. Two NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers are in Toronto to play against the Raptors as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 240. The New York Knicks play at home against the Orlando Magic on TNT as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 215. The Oklahoma City Thunder are home against the Utah Jazz at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224. The Dallas Mavericks host the Memphis Grizzlies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with a total of 242. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the San Antonio Spurs at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. Two NBA games begin at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Denver Nuggets are home against the Golden State Warriors on TNT as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 239.5. The Houston Rockets visit Sacramento to play the Kings as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers at 10:40 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 219.5. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New York Islanders play in Montreal against the Canadiens as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the Seattle Kraken as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Washington Capitals are home against the San Jose Sharks as a -298 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins host the Detroit Red Wings as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Florida Panthers are in Pittsburgh to face the Penguins as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Wild play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets are home against the St. Louis Blues as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Calgary Flames host the Columbus Blue Jackets at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play in Vegas against the Golden Knights as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5.The college basketball schedule has 46 games between Division I opponents. Seven NCAAB games are on major national television. Cincinnati is at Villanova on FS1 at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.5. Arkansas travels to Miami (FL) on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 155.5. Tennessee plays at home against Syracuse on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 19-point favorite with an over/under of 144. BYU plays at Providence on FS1 at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 142.5. Texas A&M is home against Wake Forest on ESPN2 at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 142. Kentucky is at Clemson on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 156.5. UCLA hosts Washington on FS1 at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League begins with two matches. Crystal Palace visits Ipswich Town at 2:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. West Ham United plays at Leicester City on the USA Network at 3:15 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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Is Bryce Young Beginning to Figure It Out?

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Dec 02, 2024

Bryce Young appears to have taken a leap in his ability to operate NFL offenses. He completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions in Week 12 in the Panthers’ 30-27 loss at home against Kansas City in a very competitive game. After previously being too much of a check-down artist who became very predictable in not challenging the opposing team’s secondary, Young completed 9 of 16 passes of ten or more air yards for 165 yards with a touchdown pass. He also handled the blitz well in that game as he completed 11 of 14 passes for 123 yards with that touchdown pass when Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sent extra pass rushers. That skill was going to be important in his next game against Tampa Bay since the Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles loves to dial up the blitz. Credit goes to Young for not sulking when he got benched earlier this season but instead using the time to get to work on the challenges that were holding back his development. Head coach Dave Canales also deserves accolades for not giving up on the former number-one pick in the NFL draft. Canales drew praise for his work with Baker Mayfield when he was the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator last year. He knows this Buccaneers defense which should help Young in that game. Since the eighth week of the season going into his game against Tampa Bay on December 1st, Young ranks 21st of 32 starting quarterbacks in expected points added per play. While that is not an elite ranking, it demonstrates his improvement since he ranked last for starting quarterbacks in that category before getting benched and he ranked 31st of 32 quarterbacks in his rookie season last year. Since his return to the field after his benching, he has made nine big-time defined throws and only committed four turnover-worthy plays. His sack rate has dropped from 25% to 12% since his return as well. Young built on his recent growth spurt against the Buccaneers. The second-year pro completed 26 of 46 passes for 298 yards. He threw a touchdown pass without an interception. He added another 17 yards on the ground including another touchdown. Given these recent performances, Young is making the case that he should be a starting quarterback in this league for years. He might even fulfill the promise he once had as the number-one pick in the 2023 NFL draft. It has been a remarkable turnaround for a player who looked like a complete bust when he got benched after the second week of the season. Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 02, 2024

The Monday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. Week 13 in the NFL concludes with one game. The Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Broncos are on a two-game winning streak after their 29-19 victory at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday. The win raised their record to 7-5 this season. The Browns ended a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on November 21st. Cleveland has a 3-8 record. Denver is a 6-point favorite with the total set at 42 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Miami Heat as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 221. The Atlanta Hawks are home against the New Orleans Pelicans as a 10-point favorite with a total of 227.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Brooklyn Nets as a 6-point favorite with a total of 233.The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. The New Jersey Devils travel to New York to play the Rangers at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are home against the Chicago Blackhawks at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -375 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Utah against the Hockey Club at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The college basketball schedule has 12 games between Division I opponents. One NCAAB game is on national television. Georgetown hosts Maryland-Baltimore County on FS1 at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Hoyas are on a four-game winning streak after their 100-68 victory against Albany as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 6-1 record with their only loss being an 84-63 setback at home against Notre Dame on November 16th. The Retrievers are on a two-game winning streak after their 92-69 victory against Morgan State as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. UMBC has a 5-4 record. Georgetown is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 156.

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Conference Championship Games: Odds And Previews

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Dec 01, 2024

A unique and exciting college football season is winding down. Before we get to the bowls and the College Football Playoff, there's a matter of the Conference Championships to settle. I've provided the odds for this weekend's big games and given brief previews below. It's helpful to know the venue, the current form and whether or not the teams met in the regular season. When looking at the teams, think about some of the ones that aren't there! *Also, see if you can guess which of these teams has the worst ATS record? You might be surprised by the answer!  Friday, December 6th CONFERENCE: AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP VENUE: MICHIE STADIUM - WEST POINT, NY TEAMS: TULANE VS. ARMYODDS: TULANE -4, 47.5 PREVIEW: Army has the better record and plays at home but Tulane has the higher ranking and is favored. Tulane (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) is ranked 18th in the country. The Green Wave are here on the strength of their defense. They allow 18.4 ppg. Army (10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS) is ranked #25. The Black Knights are also stingy. They allow 15.1 ppg and 295.5 ypg. Army bounced back to win its final game of the season, after getting blown out by Notre Dame the previous week. Tulane lost to Memphis in its finale, after having won its previous eight. This game will determine the AAC's representative in any potential New Year's Six bowl considerations CONFERENCE: CONFERENCE USAVENUE: AMFIRST STADIUM - JACKSONVILLE, AL TEAMS: JACKSONVILLE STATE VS. WESTERN KENTUCKY ODDS: JACKSONVILLE STATE -3.5, 58.5PREVIEW: Both these teams were 5-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. That being the case, Jacksonville State (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) will be looking to capitalize on home field advantage. These teams just played a close game at Western Kentucky on November 30th. The Hilltoppers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 19-17, as a 1-point favorite. Can they beat the Jaguars twice in less than a week? CONFERENCE: MOUNTIAN WESTVENUE: ALBERTSONS STADIUM - BOISE, ID TEAMS: UNLV VS. BOISE STATEODDS: BOISE -4, 59 PREVIEW: In the past, this would have been a real David vs. Goliath matchup. UNLV (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is better than it used to be though. The Rebels lost by only five points to the Broncos mid-season (at UNLV) and have responded by winning each of their final five games. Behind its superstar running back, Boise State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has been dominant, aiming for another championship to bolster its CFP resume. If you haven't seen Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman contender, you're in for a treat. Saturday, December 7th  CONFERENCE: BIG 12VENUE: AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX TEAMS: ARIZONA STATE VS. IOWA STATEODDS: ARIZONA STATE -2.5, 51 PREVIEW Both teams have had impressive runs in Big 12 play, each checking in with 7-2 conference records. Arizona State (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) comes in riding high off a dominant 49-7 blowout win against instate rival Arizona. That was the Sun Devils 5th straight win and cover. Iowa State (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is off three straight wins. This game is important for College Football Playoff seeding and could influence the selection committee's decisions CONFERENCE: BIG 10VENUE: FORD FIELD, DETROIT MITEAMS: MIAMI OHIO VS. OHIOODDS: MIAMI OHIO -2.5, 44.5 PREVIEW: Miami (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) had an outstanding "conference" season, going 7-1 in MAC play to clinch the East Division. Ohio (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) had the better overall record but a 6-2 record within the conference. The difference in conference records was a result of the Redhawks defeating the Bobcats when they met, at Miami, in mid-October. Miami took a 30-6 lead into the 4th quarter before Ohio scored a couple late touchdowns to make the score look a little more respectable.  CONFERENCE: SECVENUE: MERCEDEZ-BENZ STADIUM - ATLANTA, GATEAMS: TEXAS VS GEORGIA ODDS: TEXAS -3, 49 PREVIEW: They're playing in Atlanta but Texas is still favored. The Longhorns (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) in their inaugural season in the SEC have a chance to claim the conference title and secure a spot in the playoffs. Georgia (10-2 SU, 3-9 ATS) after surviving an 8-overtime thriller, aims to spoil the party. Texas will be looking to avenge its only loss, a 30-15 home loss to the Bulldogs back in October. Georgia's Trevor Etienne ran for three touchdowns. The Longhorns were #1 at the time. Needless to say, this is a huge game.  *Having gone 3-9 at the betting window, the Bulldogs have the worst ATS record of any team playing this weekend. CONFERENCE: SUN BELTVENUE: CAJUN FIELD -LAFAYETTE, LA TEAMS: MARSHALL VS LOUISIANAODDS: LOUISIANA -4, 57.5 PREVIEW: Both teams were 7-1 in Sun Belt play. Marshall (9-3 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) clinched the East in dramatic fashion. The Thundering Herd defeated James Madison in 2-OT to advance here, their first Sun Belt title game. Louisiana (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been consistent all year. With an impressive 10-1-1 ATS record, Marshall has been a cash cow for bettors all season. Will that continue on Saturday?  CONFERENCE: ACC VENUE: BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC TEAMS: CLEMSON VS. SMU ODDS: SMU -2.5, 57 PREVIEW: SMU was the only team to go undefeated in ACC play. The Mustangs blowout of Cal this past Saturday extended a 17-game winning streak in conference play. Clemson (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) on the other hand, is seeking to re-establish its dominance in the ACC, having won eight of the last ten championships. This game is obviously huge for both teams' CFP aspirations, with SMU looking to make a statement in its first ACC title game and Clemson aiming for another championship.CONFERENCE: BIG TENVENUE: LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN TEAMS: OREGON VS PENN STATEODDS: OREGON -3.5, 49.5 PREVIEW: This game features the #1 ranked team Oregon (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) taking on #2 ranked Penn State (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS). The Ducks finished the regular season undefeated, marking their first such finish since 2010. Penn State's only loss came against Ohio State, a team Oregon defeated by a single point. Naturally, this game has significant implications for the playoffs. 

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UFC 310: Preview And Picks

by Will Rogers

Sunday, Dec 01, 2024

UFC 310 Pantoja vs Asakura Saturday, December 7thT-Mobile Arena - Las VegasThe UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday. The last pay-per-view event of 2024, UFC 310 is loaded with exciting fights. Though there have been some changes to the original lineup, it should still be a great event. Let's take a closer look.  The Main Event  Pantoja vs AsakuraPantoja -2702.5 over -140 The flyweight title is on the line, as current champion Alexandre Pantoja squares off against Kai Asakura. Pantoja (28-5) is known for his aggressive style and ground game. Askakura (21-4) is making his UFC debut. It's not often you see a fighter get a shot in his first UFC fight but that speaks to the level of success Askakura had prior to coming to America. The Japanese fighter hails from the "Rizin Fighting Federation," where he was a 2-time bantamweight champion.  Pantoja "The Cannibal" obviously has a huge edge in UFC experience. A determined fighter with a lot of heart, he's been in numerous wars. He takes some punishment at times but never quits. He's never been knocked out or submitted. Pantoja's last three fights all went the distance. He was last seen earning a unanimous decision over Steve Erceg in May. Askakura hasn't fought since late 2023. He had two fights in 2023 and won them both, one by KO and the other by TKO. Both victories featured knee shots to the body.Prediction: Pantoja's experience and overall toughness should be too much for Askakura. I wouldn't want to lay -270 though.  The Co-Main Event  Rakhmonov vs GarryRakhmonov -3702.5 over -140 This was originally supposed to be a welterweight title fight between Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov. However, Muhammad had to withrdraw due to a bone infection. That's too bad, as Muhammad/Rakhmonov would have been really good. In steps Ian Machado Garry. He faces Rakhmonov in a five-round title eliminator bout. Rakhmonov has a reputation for finishing his opponents. He's 18-0 and none of those fights went the distance. Ten submissions and eight wins by KO/TKO. Garry is also undefeated (15-0) but hasn't fought the same level of competition. Still, the Hungarian fighter has defeated the opponents put in front of him. This fight will (very likely) determine the next challenger for the welterweight title.Prediction: The steep price is there for good reason, Rakhmonov is on another level from Garry. I'm currently considering the under 2.5 round option.Other FightsOutside of the two main fights, there are some other big name fighters on the card. Cyril Gane, who has looked good against everyone besides Jon Jones and Francis Nganno, takes on Alexander Volkov. It's a rematch of a 2021 fight which Gane won by decision. Gane is currently a -310 favorite. Another recognizable name is Aljamain Sterling. The "Funkmaster" is a former bantamweight champ (by disqualification) and he's 10-1 his last 11 fights. Yet, he's a sizeable underdog against Movsar Evloev. The Russian fighter is 18-0 - each of his past eight wins came by decision. The Gracie name still carries a lot of weight but Kron Gracie is in over his head against Bryce Mitchell. One of the more evenly matched fights sees Nate Landwehr take on Doo Ho Choi. Both Landwehr and Choi are known for their entertaining styles, which should make for an exciting bout. Thanks for following along with my UFC picks in 2024. It's been a great year and I'm hoping to close it out with a big win ... Will Rogers 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, EPL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/01/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 01, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action. Week 13 in the NFL continues with 11 games. Seven NFL games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Chargers travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons as a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Seattle plays in New York against the Jets as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5. The Indianapolis Colts are in New England to play the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5. The Minnesota Vikings host the Arizona Cardinals as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Houston visits Jacksonville as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 44. The Washington Commanders play at home against the Tennessee Titans as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. The Cincinnati Bengals are home against the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47.Three NFL games start during the second window of afternoon games. Two NFL games start at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Rams play in New Orleans against the Saints as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 49. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Carolina to play the Panthers as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 46.5. The Baltimore Ravens host the Philadelphia Eagles at 4:25 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 51.The Buffalo Bills play at home against the San Francisco 49ers on NBC at 8:20 p.m. ET for Sunday Night Football. The Bills are a 6-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Orlando Magic travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 210.5. The Memphis Grizzlies are home against the Indiana Pacers as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 242.5. Three NBA games begin at 6:10 p.m. ET. The New York Knicks host the New Orleans Pelicans as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The Boston Celtics play in Cleveland against the Cavaliers as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 235.5. The Miami Heat are in Toronto to play the Raptors as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222. The Oklahoma City Thunder visits Houston to play the Rockets at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 221. The Los Angeles Lakers play in Utah against the Jazz at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232. Two more NBA games start at 9:10 p.m. ET. The Sacramento Kings are at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. The Dallas Mavericks are in Portland to play the Trail Blazers as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Denver Nuggets travel to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 222.The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Vancouver Canucks play in Detroit against the Red Wings at 12:37 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 3:07 p.m. ET. The Boston Bruins host the Montreal Canadiens as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Columbus Blue Jackets are in Chicago to play the Blackhawks as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.The Dallas Stars play at home against the Winnipeg Jets at 4:37 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Ottawa Senators visit Anaheim to play the Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 30 games between Division I opponents. Two NCAAB games are on major national television. UAB is home against Middle Tennessee on ESPN2 at 4:00 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5. Xavier hosts South Carolina State on FS1 at 4:30 p.m. ET as a 25.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Matchweek 13 in the English Premier League concludes with four matches. Three matches begin at 8:30 a.m. ET. Chelsea plays at home against Aston Villa on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester United is home against Everton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham hosts Fulham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Liverpool plays at home against Manchester City on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

Successful sports handicapping requires not simply assessing teams but analyzing how your assessment of a team relates to the lines put out by the bookmakers. One of the challenges in addressing this conundrum relates as when to rely on the deeper analytics to drive a conclusion versus trusting one’s instincts from years of experience reacting to oddsmakers posted numbers. Two illustrative examples of this took place during a two-day span in the NFL this month.The Detroit Lions traveled to Houston to play the Texans as a 3.5-point road favorite for Sunday Night Football on November 10th. I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by Week 10 of this NFL season considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. Those caveats aside, we may have been seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presented us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic was not enough for me to endorse the Texans in that contest. The second factor that persuaded me was simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions were thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown the previous week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and that they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit were only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game at the time. The Lions led the NFL in net turnover margin — and they were averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That dynamic was simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit had forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I didn’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we were catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets the previous week by +29 net yards despite a 21-13 loss. The Texans had not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they had then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expected wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field for this game. I expected plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers were generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry against them at the time. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career before that game, he enjoyed a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston was 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They were outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans were holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They ranked second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home which was more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generated on the road going into that game. Houston raced out to a 23-7 lead going into halftime of that game. While they did not score in the second half and lost the game by a 26-23 score, they still covered the +3.5 point spread. The next day for Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite. This was a fishy line. Miami was on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision. The Rams were riding a three-game winning streak and were getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins were crushing their bettors this season — they were getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public was all over the Rams that night. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings had not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smelled a rat — and I decided to fade the public. I saw enough to justify this decision. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the previous two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranked second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense had played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They were only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they were holding their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami came into the game desperate — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciated that the Los Angeles offense was much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were healthy and on the field. But the Rams were still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks the previous week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It was telling that Los Angeles had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.Miami raced out to a 10-6 lead at halftime and went on to win the game by a 23-15 score to pull off the upset victory. Proving once again, sometimes the number presented by the bookies tells a more compelling story than the narrative that the deeper analytics appear to be telling us. Best of luck — Frank.

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Assessing Stanford Football After Year Two of the Troy Taylor Tenure

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The Stanford Cardinal finished 3-9 in the second season under head coach Troy Taylor after their 34-31 loss at San Jose State on Friday, November 29th. While this team seemed to be better this season in their first year in the ACC, the results do not do much to back that claim up.Last year was destined to be a trying season for Taylor’s first season as he was taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanor caught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have had the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter the previous week against California and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. They entered their final game of the season against the Spartans surrendering 412.3 total YPG which resulted in 39.3 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they were giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They ranked 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. San Jose State gained 443 yards against them with their defense continuing to be a problem. Spartans’ quarterback Walker Eget completed 33 of 49 passes for 385 yards with four touchdown passes and an interception in that game. The previous week against UNLV, Eget only completed 4 of 22 passes for 81 yards albeit in rain and sloppy conditions. Stanford's offense did play better in their final game in 2024. After going into that contest scoring only 19.2 PPG on the road, they gained 379 yards with Daniels leading the offense down the field midway in the fourth quarter to take a 31-27 lead. He completed 26 of 40 passes for 252 yards with one touchdown pass — but he did throw three interceptions. He added another 91 yards on the ground with another touchdown. But the defense could not stop the Spartans who scored the winning touchdown with just under two minutes to go in the game. The Cardinal offense had not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they had failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They overcame those low standards against San Jose State. They were converting on just 34% of their third downs going into that game. They ranked 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss — but they only gave up one sack in their final game against a Spartans team that ranked 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss going into that game. Optimists can point to Stanford’s offensive numbers against San Jose State along with their general improvement on defense to conclude that the Cardinal is moving in the right direction under Taylor. Yet after two straight 3-9 campaigns, these are baby steps, at best. Stanford would probably be ill-advised to let Taylor go after only two seasons given his commitment to rebuilding this program with a strong foundation rather than quick-fix gambles. But he probably needs to see the Cardinal make significant strides on the field in his third season next year. UPDATE: The day after I wrote this article, Stanford hired their legendary quarterback Andrew Luck as their first football general manager. Such a splashy hire is a strong  signal they they remain serious about rebuilding their football program.  Best of luck — Frank. 

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