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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 28, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB. Week 17 in the NFL continues with three games on the NFL Network. The Los Angeles Chargers travel to New England to play the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 42.5 (all from DraftKings). The Cincinnati Bengals host the Denver Broncos at 4:30 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 50. The Los Angeles Rams play at home against the Arizona Cardinals as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5.The college football bowl season continues with eight bowl games. North Carolina battles Connecticut in the Fenway Bowl at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on ESPN at 11:00 a.m. ET. The Tar  Heels are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Nebraska plays Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on ABC at noon ET. The Cornhuskers are a 4-point favorite with a total of 46.5. TCU is home against Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on ESPN at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Horned Frogs are a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 59. Miami (FL) challenges Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Hurricanes are a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Miami (OH) faces Colorado State in the Arizona Bowl at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona, on The CW at 4:30 p.m. ET. The RedHawks are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5. North Carolina State goes against East Carolina in the Military Bowl at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland, on ESPN at 5:45 p.m. ET. The Wolfpack is a 7-point favorite with a total of 60. Colorado battles BYU in the Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Buffaloes are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Army plays Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana, on ESPN at 9:15 p.m. ET. The Black Knights are a 14-point favorite with a total of 43.5.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Atlanta Hawks are home against the Miami Heat at 3:10 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Charlotte against the Hornets at 6:10 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 218. The New York Knicks are in Washington to play the Wizards as a 13-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Milwaukee Bucks visit Chicago to play the Bulls at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 220. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Detroit Pistons at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Philadelphia 76ers play in Utah against the Jazz at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. The Dallas Mavericks are in Portland to face the Trail Blazers at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 225.5. The Los Angeles Lakers are home against the Sacramento Kings at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 225. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The Florida Panthers host the Montreal Canadiens at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -325 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Three more NHL games drop the puck at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the Seattle Kraken as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Philadelphia Flyers visit Anaheim to face the Ducks as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Edmonton Oilers play in Los Angeles against the Kings as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. Five NHL games start at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Winnipeg Jets are home against the Ottawa Senators as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New Jersey Devils as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Washington Capitals as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Rangers as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Boston Bruins play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Islanders are home against the Pittsburgh Penguins at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Calgary Flames are in San Jose to play the Sharks at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has 32 games between Division I opponents. Four NCAAB games are on national television. North Carolina A&T hosts North Carolina Central on CBS at 2:00 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 156.5. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 4:00 p.m. ET. Gonzaga battles UCLA on a neutral court at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 148. Hampton plays at home against Howard on CBS as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. San Diego State is home against Utah State on Fox at 6:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5.

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NFL Current ATS Results

by Wayne Root

Friday, Dec 27, 2024

One should monitor ATS Oddsmakers Point Spreads. With Americans expected to place $35 billion in legal bets on NFL games this season, understanding how spreads evolve over the course of the season can offer fascinating insights into the dynamics of sports prediction models. Among the various types of bets, the spread is one of the most widely used. It levels the playing field between teams of different strengths by predicting the expected margin of victory. The spread serves as a benchmark, giving both bettors and analysts a reference point for how close or lopsided a game is expected to be. Conventional wisdom suggests that, as the NFL season progresses and more data becomes available, prediction models should produce increasingly accurate spreads. Did you know this?Research supports the idea that sportsbooks optimize spreads for profit, not accuracy.Results of NFL games from 2014-2023 show that the [+] favorite covers the spread in 47% of games, the favorite wins but fails to cover the spread in 16% of games, the underdog wins in 34% of games, and the remaining games result in a push.Furthermore; History Data on historical closing spreads and game results from the 2014-2023 NFL seasons show that the home team was favored in about 63% of NFL games, with an average spread of -5.6 points. In contrast, when the home team was not favored (37% of games), the average spread was slightly lower at -4.6 points. Despite this home-field advantage in spreads, the actual outcomes reveal a more balanced picture. Home teams covered the spread in only 46% of games where they were the favorite, while away favorites covered the spread 49% of the time. This suggests that while home teams are often favored, they do not consistently outperform expectations against the spread. In about 16% of all NFL games, the favorite wins the game but fails to cover the spread.2024 Spread AccuracyThe NFL is constantly evolving—new rookies join, veterans retire, rule changes are implemented, and new stadiums are built. As such, the past does not always serve as a perfect predictor of future outcomes. However, looking back in the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, we are already seeing familiar patterns emerge. So far, favorites have covered the spread in 27 games, failed to cover in 35, and 2 games ended in a push. On average, the margin of victory has been about 1.7 points below the spread.This early trend aligns with the historical data from previous seasons, where the spread tends to overestimate the margin of victory early in the season. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, these recurring patterns provide valuable insight into how spreads play out during the rest of the weeks of the NFL season.2024 thru week 15Team ATS Record Denver 11-4-0 73.3%Minnesota 10-4-1 71.4%LA Chargers 10-5-0 66.7%Detroit 10-5-0 66.7%Pittsburgh 10-6-0 62.5%Washington 9-5-1 64.3%Tampa Bay 9-6-0 60.0%Buffalo 9-6-0 60.0%Indianapolis 9-6-0 60.0%Philadelphia 9-6-0 60.0% Arizona 9-6-0 60.0%Baltimore 9-6-1 60.0%Cincinnati 9-6-0 60.0%Green Bay 9-6-0 60.0%LA Rams 8-7-0 53.3% Kansas City 8-8-0 50.0%Jacksonville 7-7-1 50.0% Chicago 7-7-2 50.0% Carolina 7-8-0 46.7% Atlanta 6-8-1 42.9%Las Vegas 6-8-1 42.9%New England 6-8-1  42.9%Houston 6-8-2 42.9%Seattle 6-9-1 40.0%Miami 6-9-0 40.0% New Orleans 6-9-0 40.0%Dallas 6-9-0 40.0% NY Jets 5-10-0 33.3% San Francisco 5-10-0 33.3% NY Giants 4-11-0 26.7%Cleveland  4-11-0 26.7%Tennessee 2-13-0 13.3%

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/27/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 27, 2024

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action. The college football bowl season continues with five bowl games. Oklahoma battles Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, on ESPN at noon ET. The Sooners are a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 43 (all odds from DraftKings). Georgia Tech plays Vanderbilt in the Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama, on ESPN at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Yellow Jackets are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 50. Texas Tech challenges Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. ET. Syracuse faces Washington State in the Holiday Bowl at the Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Orange are a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 59.5. Texas A&M goes against USC in the Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Aggies are a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 52. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The New York Knicks travel to Orlando to play the Magic at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 211. Two NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The San Antonio Spurs play in Brooklyn against the Nets as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 212.5. The Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 232. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Rockets play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. The Memphis Grizzlies are in New Orleans to play the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 239. Two NBA games begin at 9:10 p.m. ET. The Phoenix Suns are home against the Dallas Mavericks as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5. The Cleveland Cavaliers visit Denver to play the Nuggets as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 237. The Los Angeles Clippers host the Golden State Warriors at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 214.5. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Boston Bruins are in Columbus to face the Blue Jackets as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the Carolina Hurricanes as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Buffalo Sabres are home against the Chicago Blackhawks on ESPN2 as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two NHL games start at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars host the Minnesota Wild as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Nashville Predators travel to St. Louis to play the Blues as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play in Utah against the Hockey Club on ESPN2 at 9:37 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights are in San Jose to play the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -245 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has two games. Neither contest is between two Division I opponents. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches. Brighton and Hove Albion play at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal are home against Ipswich Town on the USA Network at 3:15 p.m. ET as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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NHL Off the Post: December 27th

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Dec 27, 2024

NHL action is ready to resume following a brief holiday break. Here's a look at five teams recent fortunes as we prepare to flip the calendar over to 2025 next week. Jets Flying High The Winnipeg Jets have been cruising through the season, establishing themselves as one of the NHL’s top contenders. With a 12-3-1 record on home ice, the Jets’ ability to defend their territory has been second to none. They'll begin a brief two-game homestand on Saturday against Ottawa and 10 of their next 11 contests will be at home. The Jets shutout victory over Minnesota last week solidified their dominance, showcasing both a potent offense and a steadfast defense. While challenges from the fast-charging Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars loom large in the Central Division, the Jets’ trajectory suggests they’ll continue to soar. Bruins Bare Their Claws At 8-3 over their last 11 games, the Boston Bruins continue to strike fear into opponents with their disciplined, relentless style of play. Their defensive prowess has been a hallmark this season, regularly stifling even the league’s most potent offenses. The B's currently rank sixth in the league in shots on goal allowed per game. While they’ve hit the occasional rough patch on the road, the Bruins remain a force to be reckoned with, consistently clawing their way to victories in tightly contested matchups. They come out of the holiday break just four points back of the first-place Panthers in the Atlantic Division. Avalanche Rolling Strong The Colorado Avalanche have been an offensive juggernaut, rolling over opponents with an impressive blend of speed and skill. Winners of three straight games, the Avs have found the back of the net 13 times over that stretch. Their top lines have been clicking, and the power play has been deadly. At the other end of the rink, Colorado has held seven of its last nine opponents to two goals or less. The Avs will benefit from playing four of their next five games on home ice before starting a three-game road trip in mid-January. Flames Flickering The Calgary Flames have struggled to find consistency, with their once-bright start to the season now dimming. Coming out of the holiday break, the Flames sit in fifth-place in the Pacific Division, seven points clear of the sixth-place Seattle Kraken. Defensive lapses and an inability to close out games have plagued them, especially against stronger opponents. While their offense has shown flashes of brilliance, the Flames need to reignite their spark and rediscover the tenacity that made them early season upstarts.  Islanders in Stormy Seas The New York Islanders have been a team of streaks, riding waves of momentum followed by frustrating slumps. Their recent 6-3 victory over Toronto highlighted their potential to dominate elite teams. However, they followed it up with an embarrassing 7-1 loss against the lowly Sabres on home ice, as the Islanders’ defense and goaltending have had difficulty holding firm against sustained pressure. If they can weather these storms and steady the ship, the Islanders could make a strong push toward the postseason. Despite their recent struggles, the Isles sit just five points back of the Senators for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. 

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2024 Year In Review ... Top Events From This Year

by William Burns

Thursday, Dec 26, 2024

As the 2024 year comes to an end, we can know say welcome to 2025. First, let's take a moment and realize what a year of sports it has been, a rollercoaster to say the least. From the Olympics to Championship Games, it's time to recap what my top events of 2024 Kansas City Chiefs - 3peat incoming?  Let's kick things off with the NFL. Playoffs are right around the corner and we're now coming down to the wire. Who's going to win it all? Well, we know one thing for sure. Kansas City, who are coming off their second consecutive Super Bowl ring, are challengers once again. With their 15-1 record this season, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the NFL once again. However, there are some very strong football teams standing in their way this time around. They most definitely are good enough to become champions for a third straight season. The Chiefs have their core of Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce back, and Hollywood Brown just returned from the IR which should be a massive help. But, will they get it done? Only time will tell. Here are the odds of the top five contenders as of right now.  Kansas City Chiefs (+350)Detroit Lions (+400) Buffalo Bills (+600)Philadelphia Eagles (+650)Baltimore Ravens (+650) Burns' Super Bowl Prediction as of today: Buffalo Bills (31) beats Detroit Lions (24). Spain are kings of Europe after winning European Championships!!  Looking at another type of football, this is the World's Most Beautiful Game. European Football (Soccer) is the biggest sport in the World and it's still growing. Now, although the "World Cup" is the most prestigious tournament to win in the world of Soccer for all of the players, the European Championships (Euro Cup) comes next in terms of International Tournaments. There's the Copa America, AFCON, Asian Cup etc.. However, the best teams are located in Europe and this is the tournament for just those teams. In this year's version, we saw a bunch of new faces reach new heights. For Spain, who ended up winning the tournament, a young 17yr old sensation took center stage. Lamine Yamal, who plays at Barcelona for club soccer, is one of the world's greatest up and coming superstars. He's already made a name for himself and people from all over the world are absolutely loving it. Yamal dominated France in the Semi's as he scored an absolute screamer. He also set up many opportunities for his teammates over the course of the tournament. It's just the start of something special that Spain is building and their next chance to show it is at the Nations League in 2025. Expect Spain to be serious challengers once again come the World Cup in 2026 & Euros in 2028. "The Avengers" strike back and win gold at the 2024 Olympics! (Team USA Basketball):  If you somehow missed the Men's Basketball portion of the 2024 Olympic Games, go check it out right now. Team USA, who lost in both the Semi Finals as well as the Bronze Medal game in the FIBA World Cup in 2023, were in it to prove something this time around. The fastest man in the world, Noah Lyles (who won gold in the 100M sprint in these very Olympics) had something to say after he realized that NBA Finals Champions were calling themselves the Champions of the World. That motivated the USA to bring together the greats and best players from their country for the 2024 olympics. With players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry a part of the team, you wouldn't expect anything else but gold. Having said that, Serbia & France did all they could to slow them down. But, Curry took exception. In the fourth quarter of both of those games (Semis & Finals) the "Baby Faced Assassin" took over. It was one of the greatest basketball performances of all time. Even the French TV announcer said, “The devil named Curry is hurting us!” when he was going off in the final minutes of the Gold Medal Game. Nicknamed "The Avengers" I think this time challenges some of the Team USA's of the past as one of the best teams ever assembled.  UCONN dynasty in College Hoops? Winning one championship in College Basketball is extremely difficult. Teams battle through all sorts of adversity all throughout the school year just to get put in a 68-team tournament at the end of the season to duel it out with the nations best programs. Well, this Connecticut Men's Basketball team has managed to win the NCAA Championship in consecutive years now. This is the first time that it's happened that a team won two straight since 2006-07, and the ninth time all time. Head Coach, Dan Hurley, was offered a six year 70-million dollar deal to become this year's HC of the Los Angeles Lakers. Hurley declined the offer and extended his tenure with the Huskies through the 2029-30 season for 20 million less. People may question his hard coaching style. But, there's no question that he's a winner/has loyalty to his program. He's here to build something special. It would be something "special" if the Huskies are able to win another title this season, that's for sure. It's only ever happened one other time in the late 60s/early 70s & there's no question that they should be considered as contenders once again. Either way, this is a team to watch for years to come, that's for sure. Shohei Ohtani shatters records. Dodgers win the World Series!!  After signing the biggest contract in sporting history (10yr/700-million) just over a year ago now, Shohei Ohtani has already cemented himself as one of the best players to play the game of baseball after just one season with his new team. Ohtani, who broke many records over the course of this season, started his career with the Dodgers a bit slower than one would expect (to his standards.) It wasn't until a betting scandal broke out with his former interpreter and Ohtani's bank account that the NL MVP started dominating. Finishing the season as the first player in MLB history to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season. What's even more impressive about this feat is that Shohei is just as talented, if not better as a pitcher. He didn't pitch in 2024, but is expected to get back to it in 2025. The Dodgers, who were stacked with talent, won the World Series with the top guys leading the way. Even though he didn't have an amazing playoffs, Ohtani's season will go down as one of the best ever by a hitter.  Luke Littler Takes Over the Dart World! Not many people outside of Europe pay attention to darts. However, like most sports, Darts is growing around the world. Luke Littler, a 17year old from Runcorn, United Kingdom, "kicked ass" in juniors. In his first season in the "big leagues," Littler "kicked even more ass." Luke "The Nuke" now has plenty of wins and titles under his belt (10 senior PDC titles already,) and he's the favorite to win the World Darts Championships which is the tournament that's going on right now. He's ranked as a top-five player in the World and might even be the best currently. Expect more winning to come over the course of this young phenom's career. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/26/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 26, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and EPL action. Week 17 in the NFL continues with one game. The Seattle Seahawks travel to Chicago to play the Bears on Amazon Prime Video at 8:15 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 42.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The college football bowl season continues with three bowl games on ESPN. Pittsburgh battles Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, at 2:00 p.m. ET. The Panthers are a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 50.Kansas State plays Rutgers in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Wildcats are a 7-point favorite with a total of 52.Bowling Green challenges Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, at 9:00 p.m. ET. The Falcons are an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder play in Indiana against the Pacers as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 227.5. The Charlotte Hornets are in Washington to play the Wizards as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Orlando Magic host the Miami Heat as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 208. The Atlanta Hawks play at home against the Chicago Bulls at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 243.5. Three NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are home against the Toronto Raptors as a 12-point favorite with a total of 239. The Houston Rockets visit New Orleans to play the Pelicans as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets as a 10-point favorite with a total of 214. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. The Portland Trail Blazers are home against the Utah Jazz as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 227.5.Matchweek 18 on Boxing Day in the English Premier League begins with eight matches. Manchester City hosts Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Five EPL matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Bournemouth plays at home against Crystal Palace as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea is at home against Fulham as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Newcastle United hosts Aston Villa on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Nottingham Forest plays at home against Tottenham as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. West Ham United plays at Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Manchester United is at Wolverhampton on the USA Network at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Leicester City on the USA Network at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 4.5.

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NBA on Christmas Day: 35 Years of Betting Data

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, Dec 25, 2024

Christmas Day is the NBA's signature television event (apart from the Playoffs), and features match-ups between the league's elite and/or popular teams.   This season, we will be treated to five games (all odds courtesy of BetAnySports):San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks (Knicks -8.5, 222.5)Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (Mavericks -5.5, 221.5)Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (Celtics -8.5, 221)Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Warriors -4.5, 221.5)Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (Nuggets -2.5, 232.5)Let's take a look at the data for Christmas Day games, dating back to December 25, 1990.Home teams:  61-53-1 ATSAway teams:  53-61-1 ATSFavorites:  60-53-1 ATSUnderdogs:  53-60-1 ATSDouble-digit Faves:  4-5 ATSDouble-digit Dogs:  5-4 ATSRevenge-minded Teams:  20-24 ATSOvers:  53-58-4 Unders:  58-53-4Teams off Win (vs. Foes off Loss):  22-30-1 ATSTeams off Loss (vs. Foes off Win):  30-22-1 ATSTeams off ATS Win (vs. Foes not off ATS Win):  29-36-1 ATSTeams off ATS Loss (vs. Foes not off ATS Loss:  36-28-1 ATSTeams off Upset Win (vs. Foes not off Upset Win):  8-10 ATSTeams off Upset Loss (vs. Foes not off Upset Loss):  25-17-1 ATSTeams off Back-to-Back Wins (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Wins):  23-29-1 ATSTeams off Back to Back Losses (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Losses):  16-14 ATSFrom this data, we can see that there might be an edge in playing teams off losses against foes off wins.  Since 1990, those teams have gone 30-22-1 ATS.  This year, there are four teams that fit the bill:  Spurs +8.5, Timberwolves +5.5, Celtics -8.5, and Suns +2.5).  Notably, home teams have done much better than road teams in this set of 53 games.  Home teams have gone 16-9 ATS, while road teams are just 14-13-1.  The home teams off a loss this season that are playing a road team off a win are:  Celtics -8.5 and Suns +2.5.  And if we break our 16-9 ATS set down further to Home Dogs and Home Favorites, we find they both have been profitable.  Home Dogs on Christmas Day off a loss have gone 6-4 ATS vs. foes off a win, while Home Favorites off a loss have gone 9-5 ATS vs. foes off a win (and Home PK'em teams have gone 1-0 ATS).Consider taking the Celtics and Suns on this Christmas Day.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/25/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 25, 2024

The Wednesday Christmas Day sports card features NFL, NBA, and NCAAB action. Week 17 in the NFL kicks off with two games on Netflix. The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are on a five-game winning streak after their 27-19 victory as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Steelers are on a two-game losing streak after their 34-17 loss at Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas City is a 2.5-point road favorite with the total set at 44 (all odds from DraftKings). The Baltimore Ravens play in Houston against the Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Ravens have won three of their last four games after their victory against the Steelers last Saturday. The Texans had won two games in a row before their loss to the Chiefs on Saturday. Baltimore is a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.  The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket broadcast simultaneously on ABC and ESPN. The New York Knicks host the San Antonio Spurs at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Knicks are on a four-game winning streak after their 139-125 win against Toronto as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. The Spurs had won two games in a row before their 111-106 loss at Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New York is a 9-point favorite with a total of 223.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 2:40 p.m.ET. The Mavericks have won ten of their last 12 games after their 132-108 victory against Portland as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday. The Timberwolves are on a three-game losing streak after their 117-104 upset loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 221.The Boston Celtics are home against the Philadelphia 76ers at 5:10 p.m. ET. The Celtics lost for the second time in their last three games with their 108-104 upset loss at Orlando as a 10-point favorite on Monday. The 76ers won for the third time in their last four games after their victory against the Spurs on Monday. Boston is an 8-point favorite with a total of 222.The Golden State Warriors host the Los Angeles Lakers at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Warriors have lost four of their last five games after a 111-105 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6-point favorite on Monday. The Lakers had won three games in a row before their 117-114 victory at home against Detroit as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Golden State is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Denver Nuggets are in Phoenix to play the Suns at 10:40 p.m. ET. The Nuggets won for the fifth time in their last six games with a 117-90 victory against the Suns as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix has lost three games in a row. Denver is a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 232.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents are all on national television in the Diamond Head Classic at the SimpliFi Arena in the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. Loyola-Chicago battles Murray State on ESPNU at 1:30 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 139. The College of Charleston faces Charlotte on ESPNU at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Hawaii plays Oakland University as the host team of this multi-team event on ESPN2 at 6:30 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 133. Nebraska challenges Oregon State in the championship game of this three-day event on ESPN2 at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5.

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Gambling News And Notes

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Dec 24, 2024

Long rebuilds haven’t worked. Quick fixes haven’t worked. What do the New York Jets do now? The Aaron Rodgers Era, short as it was, is in shambles. Now the Jets once again will be starting from scratch after they go through the motions in the final two weeks of the season and carry into an uncertain off-season the stigma of having the longest playoff drought of any team in a major professional sport. It’s been 14 years since the Mark Sanchez Jets made their improbably run to the AFC Championship Game. Owner Woody Johnson will be hiring a new coach and general manager sometime in the next month or so. What about Rodgers? Will they look – yet again – for a new quarterback or stick with the league’s oldest player for another season? Jets fans may be conflicted on whether they want Rodgers back or not, but it’s unlikely that any new coach/GM tandem would want to have to deal with Rodgers’s mercurial ways in their first year on the job when he would have at most only one year left anyway. And Rodgers has never been the kind of guy who would be happy mentoring his replacement.MUSK SPEAKER? REALLY? Speaking of weird, more than a few bettors have thrown some cash down on Trump buddy Elon Musk being the new Speaker of the House. Most of the action came down when the current speaker, Mike Johnson, had trouble putting a budget deal together. Now that a temporary agreement is in place, punters will no doubt cool a bit on Johnson getting the heave-ho and Musk moving in.CAVALIERS LOOK LIKE BEST BET The closest thing to a sure thing in the NBA this season? Unsurprisingly, it’s the Cleveland Cavaliers. After 29 games the Cavs were 25-4 SU, 21-8 ATS, 19-10 on the Over, and 16-1 SU at home. Can Cleveland keep it together long-term? We’ll know a lot more about the Cavs in the next few weeks. On Friday they begin a nasty little four-game Western road trip with games at Denver, Golden State, Los Angeles (Lakers,) and Dallas.TRIBAL INTERESTS LIKE BURGUM President-elect Donald Trump has taken a lot of heat from some of his appointments, but one under-the-radar appointee – North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum as Secretary of the Interior – has been getting thumbs up from Indian casino interests. A few years ago Burgum successfully negotiated deals with online operators in his state, and tribal leaders expect more of the same on a national level once he takes over. The Dept. of the Interior plays a vital role in policies relating to Native Americans. CASINOS CONSIDER SMOKING BAN Smoking in casinos has been a contentious issue for decades, with operators doing everything they can to keep both smokers and non-smokers appeased. Most casinos now have advanced ventilation systems as well as non-smoking areas, but the push to ban smoking continues. The spotlight is now on state-run casinos in Missouri and Kansas. Legislators in both states will soon be considering a bill that would rub out smoking inside casinos. If that happens, other states would certainly follow.ODDS LOW ON SOUTH CAROLINA SPORTS BETTING Thirty-nine states now allow gambling on sports in one form or another, but don’t expect South Carolina to become No. 40. There is some talk about legalization in the legislature, but the governor is adamantly opposed to it and it is likely to draw opposition from the state’s colleges – and in South Carolina, college sports is king.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF Previews and Odds - 12/24/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 24, 2024

The Tuesday sports card for Christmas Eve features NCAA-F action.The college football bowl season continues with one bowl game. San Jose State plays South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl at the Clarence T.C. Ching Field in Honolulu, Hawaii, on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Spartans ended a two-game losing streak with their 34-31 win against Stanford as a 2.5-point favorite on November 29th. They ended the regular season with a 7-5 record. Wide receiver Nick Nash and center Hudson Mesa are opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Starting cornerbacks D.J. Harvey and Michael Dansby along with backup quarterback Emmett Brown headline the players not playing in this game after entering the transfer portal. The Bulls had won two games in a row before their 35-28 upset loss at Rice as a 5.5-point favorite on November 30th. They go into this game with a 6-6 record. They have three players in the transfer portal not playing tonight. Safety Tawfiq Byard, defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli, and left guard Andrew Kilfoyl are expected to play.San Jose State is a 3-point favorite with the total set at 63.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Football League returns on Wednesday with two games. The National Basketball Association gets back at it with five games on its traditional Christmas Day slate. The National Hockey League takes three days off until Friday. The NCAA-B college basketball schedule picks up again on Wednesday with four games in the Diamond Head Classic at the SimpliFi Arena in the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

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Making Point Spreads by Oddsmakers and Using Algorithms

by Wayne Root

Monday, Dec 23, 2024

The Great Equalizer in Sports Betting: The Point SpreadBetting on sports is becoming quite the hobby, as more and more states legalize across America. Besides, watching games is way more fun when you’ve got a little skin in the game. As you'd imagine, the NFL is king, drawing the vast majority of the bets placed in the United States every year.The point spread. The “great equalizer.” Just how do sportsbooks  and oddsmakers come up with this all-important number? Most of the time, oddsmakers try to come up with a point spread betting infrastructure that creates the least risk for the sportsbook and effectively guarantees a profit even when your bet wins.The Sports Book’s PositionMany people assume that the point spread is designed so that both outcomes in a game—(1) the favorite covering and (2) the underdog covering—are equally likely given the relative strength of the teams. That’s close, but not quite right. And at times, impossible. The majority of the time, sportsbooks try to create a point spread with a margin of victory that attracts equal betting on both teams. Sometimes this is equivalent to a results-oriented spread—one which creates a truly level playing field—but not always because the public isn’t necessarily a rational actor.How the Public May CounterThe public may counter with their own betting lines by developing their own numbers. At their core, a sports betting algorithm functions by analyzing past and real-time data to predict the likelihood of different outcomes in a game. This prediction is based on a variety of factors, including team performance, individual player statistics, weather conditions, and even odds offered by bookmakers. These algorithms use statistical models to analyze these factors and create probability estimates for the outcome of a game. These are the public’s own weapons. For example, a sports betting algorithm might assess the probability of a specific team winning based on previous performance and other variables. Bettors can then use this information to compare with odds from different sportsbooks and decide whether to place a bet. This process is often referred to as identifying value bets—where the odds provided by a bookmaker are higher than the algorithm's probability of a certain outcome. This is where sharp action comes into play. Machine Learning Algorithms Machine learning algorithms are now commonly used in sports betting. These algorithms improve over time by learning from past data and refining their predictions based on new information. By processing large datasets, machine learning algorithms and models can identify patterns that humans might miss, which can lead to more accurate predictions in complex scenarios like live betting.Sports Books Set Risk-Free LinesWhy do sportsbooks want equal betting on both teams most of the time? Simple. It’s a risk-free way for them to make money.If there is equal money on both sides, there is no risk for the sportsbook. They don’t turn a huge profit on any single game but they do it from a much bigger tray and they do it a couple of million times. Over time, it adds up a lot.Public Betting As a collective, the general betting public is not always a rational actor. People will bet on certain teams more heavily than others, even when that team doesn’t deserve it based on its quality of play. Teams that attract an irrational amount of betting money are known as “public teams.” You will find them in every sport. They tend to be the high-profile teams with massive fan bases and (sometimes but definitely not always) history of success.Identify Public TeamsThere is no universally accepted grouping of public teams, but you won’t find much argument that the teams listed in the table below qualify.Here’s a list of the most recognized public teams in America. Dallas CowboysGreen Bay PackersNew England PatriotsAlabama Crimson TideNotre Dame Fighting IrishGolden State WarriorsLos Angeles LakersDuke Blue DevilsKentucky WildcatsUNC Tar HeelsChicago CubsLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsNew York YankeesToronto Maple LeafsWhen oddsmakers list public teams at so-called accurate betting odds, the public is likely to bet on them more heavily and potentially put the sportsbook at risk of a loss if the public team covers the spread. For that reason, teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Duke Blue Devils and others mentioned above will often be bigger favorites than the analytics indicate they should be.Do Sports Books Take Positions?Many sportsbooks are willing to “take a position” in certain circumstances, which basically means that they will set/leave the point spread so that the sportsbook needs a certain result in order to come out in the black. When you see one sportsbook open a point spread at a different number than its competitors, those oddsmakers are likely taking a position on that game. They know that the lower/higher spread will attract bets on the team that is laying fewer/getting more points, but they are okay with that because their analysis says that the other outcome is more likely. Bookmakers don’t always need to be correct when they take a position; they just need to be right often enough to be profitable on the whole. Chances are that the sportsbook you’re using has done just that. It’s still in business after all.Monte Carlo Test with A.I. Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probabilities of different outcomes by running simulations thousands of times. This technique is especially useful in sports betting as it accounts for the inherent uncertainty and variability in sporting events. Many companies and individual bettors have become interested and have started using artificial intelligence-based algorithms to predict game outcomes. For example, several popular sportsbooks use algorithms to adjust odds in real-time based on ongoing match data. Bettors can also use platforms that provide algorithm-driven predictions to help them make betting decisions.Algorithms Identify Value BetsIt’s also important to recognize that while algorithms can identify value bets, they are not a guarantee of profit. Sports betting algorithms offer valuable insights for bettors looking to make more informed decisions. However, they are not foolproof and should be used responsibly. By understanding the inner workings of these algorithms, how they are developed, and their limitations, bettors can enhance their experience without falling into the trap of over-reliance on technology. No matter how sophisticated the algorithm, gambling always involves risk. Use algorithms as tools for responsible gambling, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/23/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 23, 2024

The Monday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. Week 16 in the NFL concludes with one game. The Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints on ABC and ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The college football bowl season continues with two bowl games. UTSA battles Coastal Carolina in the Myrtle Beach Bowl at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina, on ESPN at 11:00 a.m. ET is a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5. Northern Illinois challenges Fresno State in the Famous Potato Idaho Bowl at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on ESPN at 2:30 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 40. The National Basketball Association has 14 games on its docket. Four NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 231.5. The Houston Rockets travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 218.5. The Boston Celtics play in Orlando against the Magic as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. The Philadelphia 76ers are home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 218.Three NBA games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat host the Brooklyn Nets as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. The New York Knicks play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 227. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Atlanta to play the Hawks as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 6-point favorite with a total of 232. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Washington Wizards as an 18-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Chicago Bulls as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 234. Two NBA games start at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors host the Indiana Pacers as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 6-point favorite with a total of 232.5. The Los Angeles Lakers are home against the Detroit Pistons at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The New Jersey Devils host the New York Rangers at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Winnipeg Jets at 2:07 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Penguins are home against the Philadelphia Flyers as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Columbus Blue Jackets play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Boston Bruins are home against the Washington Capitals as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Detroit Red Wings host the St. Louis Blues as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The New York Islanders play at home against the Buffalo Sabres at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two NHL games begin at 8:07 p.m. ET. The Carolina Hurricanes play in Nashville against the Predators as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild are home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -265 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two meow NHL games start at 9:07 p.m. ET. The Dallas Stars are in Utah to play the Hockey Club as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks host the San Jose Sharks as a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights play at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -340 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has seven games between Division I opponents. Four games are on national television in the Diamond Head Classic at the SimpliFi Arena in the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. Loyola-Chicago faces Charleston on ESPNU at 5:30 p.m. ET. Oregon State plays Oakland University on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Nebraska challenges Hawai’i on ESPN2 at 10:30 p.m. ET. Murray State battles Charlotte on ESPN2 at 12:30 a.m. ET. 

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