For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.AKRON: Third-year head coach Joe Moorhead has overseen a 4-20 mark in his first two seasons with the Zips — and two of those four victories were against teams below the FBS level. Akron was more competitive last year with five of their losses decided by one scoring possession — and three of their losses were in overtime. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, they outgained those opponents by +31 net Yards-Per-Game. A -10 net turnover margin did not help matters — nor did a Week Five season-ending injury to starting quarterback D.J. Irons. Just two starters are back on offense — but Moorhead did attack the transfer portal to bring in junior quarterback Ben Finley who has starting experience at Cal and North Carolina State. The defense returns six starters from a unit that ranked 31st in the FBS by holding their opponents to 335.0 Yards-Per-Game. APPALACHIAN STATE: After seeing their seven-season run of at least nine victories snapped with their 6-6 campaign in 2022, my biggest question last season regarding the Mountaineers was whether that was a bump in the road or the first signs indicating a decline in the program. Things looked bleak after a 3-4 start last year, but Appalachian State then finished the season by winning six of their final seven games including a 13-9 victory against Miami (OH) in the Cure Bowl. Their only loss in that stretch was a 49-23 loss at Troy in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Their other four losses were decided by one scoring possession. Losing 30 fumbles and only recovering 15 fumbles did not help matters. But the Mountaineers did outgain their conference rivals by +71 net Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, head coach Shawn Clark got this program pointed in the right direction last year by reshuffling his coaching staff with a new offensive and defensive coordinator. Five starters are back on offense headlined by senior quarterback Joey Aguilar who was the breakout start for that unit. The former junior college transfer passed for 3757 yards and 33 touchdown passes — and he completed 67.1% of his passes in his final nine starts. His top six targets are back — but the offensive line will be the biggest question with only one starter back from that group. A young defense returns 15 of the 21 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. ARKANSAS STATE: Things hit rock bottom for head coach Butch Jones early last season when they got crushed by Oklahoma by a 73-0 score before losing to Memphis by a 37-3 score. The Red Wolves entered the season with an 11-26 record since Jones took over — so the former Tennessee head coach was already on the hot season coming into his fourth season with the program. But things changed after the season-ending injury to senior quarterback J.T. Shrout which created the opportunity for freshman Jaylen Raynor who would then average 231 passing Yards-Per-Game with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with an 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Red Wolves would become bowl-eligible the rest of the way before losing to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl by a 21-19 score. Now 16 starters return this season as Jones looks to take this program to the next level after three straight top recruiting classes in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State averaged 45.8 Points-Per-Game in their six wins by only 11.0 PPG in their seven losses. They need to get their defense playing better after ranking 102nd and 124th in the nation by allowing 30.4 PPG and 443.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They only held one opponent to less than 21 points. Six starters return on that side of the ball — and Jones added nine players in the transfer portal to improve the talent level on defense. BALL STATE: It continues to appear that the Cardinals’Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 was simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 15-22 record overall and a 10-14 conference mark in the last three years. The Cardinals were 4-8 last year but did end the season winning three of their final six games. And despite a 3-5 record in the MAC, they outgained their conference opponents by +37 net Yards-Per-Game. The defense was the strength of the unit as they ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents total 315.8 total YPG — but defensive coordinator Tyler Stockton left to take the same role at Boise State and only one starter returns from that unit. With just three of the 16 players who took at least 200 snaps back from last year, Neu brought in eight transfer to help with that group this season. The offense has four starters back including freshman quarterback Kadin Semonza who started the first four games before redshirting for the rest of the season. He completed 61% of his passes and threw for 458 yards and offers the team more balance on offense than the second half of last year. BOISE STATE: The Broncos season turned around last year after third-year head coach Andy Avalos got fired on November 12th with the team underachieving expectations. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos took over as interim head coach and led the team to three straight wins including a dominant 44-20 win at UNLV to take the Mountain West Conference championship that eluded them the previous season despite a perfect 8-0 regular season mark. After a 35-22 loss against UCLA in the LA Bowl, Boise State finished with an 8-6 record. Seventeen starters are back from that group — and Danielson added some impactful transfers. The offense is led by junior running back Ashton Jeanty who rushed for 1347 yards en route to winning the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year Award. The defense has 11 starters back along with 16 of the 19 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. But while that unit was young last season, they ranked 100th in the nation by allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and ranked 71st in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed. BOWLING GREEN: The Bowling Green administration was finally rewarded with their patience in head coach Scott Loeffler as the team seemed to have made a breakthrough in the second half of last season. The Falcons won five of their last six games before losing to Minnesota by a 30-24 score in the Quick Lane Bowl. Loeffler’s teams only posted a 7-22 record in his first three seasons — and the 0-5 campaign in the 2020 COVID year in his second season may have significantly derailed the rebuilding effort he had planned. But Bowling Green went to their first bowl game since 2015 two years which gave Loeffler the benefit of an extra few weeks of practice. Now 15 starters return from last year’s 7-6 squad — and Loeffler added seven transfers on the defensive side of the football. Five of their six losses came against teams who combined to produce a 59-10 record including the national champion Michigan Wolverines who Loeffler conceded really beat them up physically early in the season. Sixth-year senior Connor Bazelak returns at quarterback after making big strides in the second half of the season. The former Indiana and Missouri quarterback improved after trusting his offensive system more and limiting his turnovers. The defense was aggressive and opportunistic — they led the nation in forced turnovers and ranked 16th in sack rate. BUFFALO: After a 3-9 season last year, third-year head coach Maurice Linguist bailed the program to become the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama. Pete Lembo comes in as the new head coach with 15 years of head coaching experience at Lehigh, Elon, and then Ball State for five seasons where he compiled a 33-29 record. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has been an in-demand special teams coordinator. He inherits ten starters and added at least a dozen players in the transfer portal. The defense should be in decent shape after the Bulls ranked 53rd in the nation by allowing 367.1 total Yards-Per-Game. But the offense only scored 20.9 Points-Per-Game and 318.8 total YPG, ranking 109th and 113th, and only three starters return. CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears rallied when their record fell to 3-6 by winning three straight games to become bowl-eligible before losing to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl by a 34-14 score. Head coach Justin Wilcox has 15 starters back from that team as they begin their inaugural season in the ACC. California was outgained by -82 net Yards-Per-Game in the last season of the Pac-12. For the second-straight season, the defense did not play up to Wilcox’s expectations as they rank 111th and 102nd in the nation by surrendering 32.8 Points-Per-Game and 414.1 YPG. The offense will have their fourth new offensive coordinator in Wilcox’s eight seasons with offensive line coach and run game coordinator Mike Bloesch taking over for Jake Spavital who took the same job at Baylor. Sophomore Fernando Mendoza returns at quarterback after taking the starting job after the first month of the season — but he will be challenged by senior North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers who passed for 3382 yards with 29 touchdown passes and only five interceptions last season. Running back Jaydn Ott is an All-American candidate after rushing for 1305 yards and 12 touchdowns in his sophomore season. Wilcox has gotten more aggressive in the transfer portal with an Admissions Office that has been more cooperative regarding their rigorous academic standards. Despite being a West Coast team playing many of their games on the East Coast, Wilcox reeled in his best recruiting class in four years. CENTRAL MICHIGAN: The Chippewas seem to be headed in the wrong direction under head coach Jim McElwain. After overseeing a 20-13 record in his first three seasons (including the shortened 2020 campaign), they have a 9-15 record in the last two seasons after losing their last three games a year ago to drop to 5-7 in 2023. Compounding matters is that Central Michigan has a 7-3 record games decided by one scoring possession — so their two-year record could be even worse. The biggest problem is the defense that ranked 104th in the nation by allowing 31.1 Points-Per-Game. The unit struggled stopping the run and the pass. They ranked 83rd in the nation by giving up 159.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game and they ranked 102nd by surrendering 247.3 passing YPG. The defense is not doing themselves any favors either as they forced only eight turnovers despite making that area a priority in the offseason after generating just ten takeaways. The defense lacks playmakers and McElwain was not very active in the transfer portal either as linebacker Nolan Ziegler coming over from Notre Dame looks to be the only immediate help. The plan seems to be to develop the group internally with six starters back. The offense has six starters back as well including quarterback Bert Emanuel, Jr. who missed most of the season to injury — but Iowa transfer Joe Labas could challenge him for the starting job. CHARLOTTE: In his first year as the 49ers’ head coach last year, Bill Poggi brought more than 40 players, including 15 players from Power-Five conferences. Charlotte once again finished with a 3-9 record overall and a 2-6 mark in conference play — but they were playing in the more competitive American Athletic Conference last year after their move from Conference USA. Once again, Poggi was very active in the transfer portal bringing in at least 35 new faces including 21 players from Power-Four conference which makes them the roster with the most former Power Four conference players on scholarship in the AAC. Charlotte did lose 19 players in the transfer portal — so team chemistry and culture remain question marks. The offense returns four starters and added at least 15 more players in the transfer portal headlined by former Florida quarterback Max Brown. The defense returns three starters and brings in at least 20 players in the portal. CLEMSON: Head coach Dabo Swinney continues to “get off my lawn” regarding the transfer portal with him bringing only two backup quarterbacks in the last six seasons. Clemson has a solid NIL program but it is dedicated to retaining rather than adding players. Perhaps Swinney is crazy like a fox in the positive impact this has on the culture within his program. On the other hand, the Tigers lost 12 in the transfer portal in the offseason and bypassed taking advantage of the selective targeting of specific positional needs that other potential playoff contenders engage in. Swinney is banking on his recruiting, nurturing, and coaching up, which will put his collective roster in a position to compete for a national championship when the playoffs arrive — and he just has to make sure his team is still in the tournament. But the defense lost five players to the NFL in the meantime and only returned five starters. Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik completed 64% of his passes for 2844 yards last season — but he threw nine interceptions and failed to close the deal in the fourth quarter in losses to Florida State, Miami (FL), and North Carolina State. On one hand, perhaps the Tigers are the ultimate “buy-low” stock according to Swinney after his team won the first down battle by a combined 94-60 margin in their four losses last season. Or perhaps the fumbles and missed Red Zone field goal attempts in those games were just a harbinger of things to come for this program. Klubnik only ranked 80th in Quarterback Rating -- so he is either going to break out this season or fail to fulfill the promise of his five-star rating coming out of high school. EAST CAROLINA: After six straight losing seasons, the Pirates had a 15-10 record over a two-year stretch — but they hit bottom last year by only going 2-10. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation with just 10 starters back -- and they simply could not move the ball on offense where they ranked 127th in the nation by generating just 277.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They scored only 17.3 Points-Per-Game which ranked 124th in the FBS — and they played five games where they did not score more than 10 points. Their offense ranked last in the nation in Success Rate. Sixth-year head coach Mike Houston brought in former Ole Miss co-offensive coordinator John David Baxter to install a new up-tempo Air Raid offense. Houston also added former four-star recruits Jake Garcia from Missouri and Katin Houser from Michigan State to compete for the starting quarterback job. Garcia had eight starts for Miami (FL) two years ago and Houser started five times for the Spartans last year. Seven starters are back on that side of the ball. The East Carolina defense was good — they ranked 37th in both holding their opponents to 22.4 PPG and limiting these foes to 341.3 YPG. They ranked second in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The biggest problem with the group was their lack of big plays as they only had 18 sacks and just five interceptions. Seven starters are back from that unit. Houston brought in 13 players in the transfer portal — but they lost 21 players to other programs in the offseason. It seems like a make-or-break year for Houston who is clearly on the hot seat. FLORIDA: Head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat after two straight losing campaigns that have resulted in an 11-14 record with the Gators. In their five-game losing streak to close last season, they gave up 38.2 Points-Per-Game. Fourteen starters return including senior quarterback Graham Mertz who bypassed the transfer portal after his first year in Gainesville — but he may be challenged by fellow former five-star recruit D.J. Lagway entering the program. Before getting too aggressive about fading Florida, remember the size that still exists on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Three starters return on the defensive line. The top seven returnees on the offensive line have an average size of 6’6 and weigh 326 pounds. FRESNO STATE: Jeff Tedford stepped down as head coach of this program in mid-June due to ongoing health issues. Tedford is a fantastic head coach who led the Bulldogs to a Mountain West Conference championship in his third season here in 2019 before stepping down in the offseason because of health reasons. He was rehired for the 2022 season. He did not coach the New Mexico Bowl last year because of health issues. Assistant head coach and linebackers coach Tim Skipper was the interim head coach in Fresno State’s 37-10 win against New Mexico State — and he has been tapped as the interim head for this season. Thirteen starters return from that group headlined by junior Mikey Keene who won the MVP award for that bowl game by completing 31 of 39 passes for 390 yards with three touchdowns in the air and another on the ground. In their four losses, they failed to score at least 20 points — so this is an area of concern. The defense has taken a step back as well after the 23.5 Points-Per-Game they allowed were the most they surrendered since 2017. The Bulldogs’ defense fell to 79th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. They gave up 30 points six times — and they ranked 97th in the nation by giving up 166.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The players responded and played great for Skipper in the bowl game — but changing head coaches in June is far from ideal.GEORGIA: The Bulldogs’ 27-24 upset loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship kept them from attempting to become the first college football team to pull off a three-peat since Minnesota in the 1930s. Since November of 2020, Georgia has a 46-2 record — and both those two losses were against the Crimson Tide. Sixteen starters return led by senior quarterback Carson Beck who ranked fourth in the nation by completing 72.4% of his passes and ranked third with 3941 passing yards. Beck must find new favorite targets with tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey off to the NFL — but head coach Kirby Smart brought in three transfers to compete with an already talented if younger wide receiver and tight end rooms. Four starters return on the offensive for a group that might be the best in the country. Seven starters return on defense including eight of the 12 players in the front seven who logged-in at least 200 snaps. As usual, this side of the football has to replace players who are now playing on Sundays — but considering that only four are gone to the NFL with none of them getting drafted in the first round indicates this group could be quite good. Smart did lose three starters in the secondary to the NFL — but what this unit lacks in experience it makes up for in young blue-chip talent waiting for their opportunity. GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles return 13 starters from a team that lost their final five games of the season after a 41-21 loss to Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. After two straight 6-7 seasons, there is unrest with this program entering the third-year with former USC head coach Clay Helton leading the program. The transition from a spread triple-option offense to an Air Raid passing attack has gone about as well as possible — although their 31 turnovers last season were tied with Nebraska for most in the nation. But the other side of the ball continues to be the concern after Georgia Southern surrendered 30.5 Points-Per-Game last season after giving up 31.6 and 31.4 PPG in the prior two years. HAWAI’I: Third-year head coach Timmy Chang will continue to embrace his Run-and-Shoot roots when he was the quarterback for the Rainbow Warriors from 2000 to 2004 by bringing back his old quarterbacks coach Dan Morrison to coach his quarterbacks' room. Hawai’i has 15 starters back from the team that finished 5-8 last year which was a two-win improvement his rookie season as the team’s head coach. The offense is led by senior quarterback Brayden Schafer, who passed for 3542 yards last year with 26 touchdown passes but 14 interceptions. This will be his third year as their starting quarterback — and he gets his top six receivers back from last season. New defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman has seven starters back and nine of the top 11 tacklers from last year. The nine-year NFL veteran who served for four seasons as Rex Ryan’s defensive coordinator for the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills will bring a multi-look aggressive blitzing attack to the unit. The Rainbow Warriors allowed 41.4 Points-Per-Game in their eight losses. INDIANA: Tom Allen was relieved of his head coaching duties after seven seasons since the Hoosiers compiled just a 10-26 record in the last three years after their surprising 6-2 mark in the COVID 2020 campaign. They have lost 24 of their last 27 games against Big Ten rivals. In comes in new head coach Curt Cignetti who may be trying to transform Indiana into James Madison West with 13 players joining him. The Dukes posted a 52-9 record in his tenure there including a 19-4 mark the last two seasons. In all, Cignetti brought in 30 transfers to join nine returning starters. The defense lost 14 players including five starters to the transfer portal but Cignetti brought six players on that side of the ball from James Madison including four who were All-Sun Belt Conference award winners. On offense, Cignetti’s initial priority was improving the speed and athleticism of that group — and he added eight players in the transfer portal at the skill positions. The wide receiver room has the potential to be one of the most dynamic groups in the nation for former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The three-year starter for the Bobcats looks to rebound from a down season last year — but he won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year two years ago. He has a 21-11 career record as a starter. With so many new players in Bloomington, establishing a winning culture is a concern. But Cignetti has never had a losing season in his 13 years as a head coach — and as he tells recruits: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.” KANSAS STATE: After overseeing a 12-11 mark in his first two seasons, head coach Chris Klieman enters his sixth year with the Wildcats with a 27-13 record in the last three seasons to firmly establish them as one of the teams to beat in the Big 12 conference. Kansas State finished 9-4 last season after their 28-19 victory against North Carolina State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Only 12 starters return from that group. The defense should continue to be good with eight starters back from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to 21.0 Points-Per-Game. Five of the top six tacklers are back as well as 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense experienced some turnover in the offseason with offensive coordinator Collin Klein taking the same job at Texas A&M and quarterback Will Howard transferring to Ohio State. Klieman hired former Texas Tech and Utah State head coach Matt Wells and elevated offensive line coach Conor Riley to serve as co-offensive coordinators. And don’t tell Buckeye Nation that sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson was probably going to beat Howard out for the starting quarterback job anyway. Johnson is one of the most prized recruits in the history of the program with his dual-threat skills and should bring more of a passing threat to this offense than Howard or even when Klein when quarterbacking this team over a decade ago. A looming problem could be their inexperienced offensive line that lost three multi-year starters from last year’s team. MIAMI (OH): The RedHawks endured yet another season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert in their eighth game by turning to redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith again who led them to a 23-14 victory against Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game before losing to Appalachian State in the Cure Bowl by a 13-9 score. With Gabbert returning as a sixth-year senior, Smith transferred to Alabama A&M. Six starters are back on offense and another six on defense from last year’s 11-3 squad who went 7-1 in conference play — but they only outgained their MAC opponents by +10 Yards-Per-Game. The defense ranked eighth in the nation by holding their opponents to 15.9 Points-Per-Game — but the offense ranked 108th by only generating 323.5 total YPG. MISSISSIPPI: After a 10-3 season two years ago, the Rebels took a step back to an 8-5 record in head coach Lane Kiffin’s fourth season with the program. Such are the swings when a program becomes so dependent on the transfer portal. But Kiffin was able to build off a team with 14 returning starters and use the portal again last offseason to build a roster that would produce the first 11-win season in program history last year. Ole Miss finished with an 11-2 record after a statement victory and offensive explosion against a good Penn State defense in their 38-25 win in the Peach Bowl. Yet a 52-17 loss to Georgia in a game where the Bulldogs rushed for over 300 yards demonstrated to Kiffin that there remains a significant talent deficit in their program. The “Portal King” used the 11-win season to get aggressive in the transfer portal once again. Another large group of incoming players including eight who were former 4 or 5-star players coming out of high school was enough for it to be graded the number one transfer class in the nation. Kiffin’s top goal was to get bigger, stronger, and more athletic on his front seven after the Georgia debacle. Five of the five and four-star transfers were for the defense — and the Rebels will likely have six transfers in their starting defense to complement the six returning starters that are back. The offense lost two-time first-team All-SEC running back Quinshon Judkins who transferred to Ohio State — but Kiffin added multiple running backs, wide receivers, and offensive linemen to upgrade the talent on the roster. Senior quarterback Jaxson Dart bypassed the NFL to return after passing for 3364 yards and adding 381 rushing yards. Entering his third year as the starter, the former USC transfer threw 23 touchdown passes and lowered his interception count from 11 to just five last season. The problem with bringing in so many new players year after year is that building a culture is not a given and can be volatile. But culture is not enough to beat Georgia and compete for a national championship. Both lines look significantly better on paper. Kiffin is a quarterback whisperer. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding is one of the best in the business — and he will be tasked to see that if building an elite front seven is too difficult at a place like Ole Miss, can one be rented?NORTH TEXAS: The Mean Green met even the wildest of expectations on the offensive side of the ball under first-year head coach Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple and former head coach at Incarnate Work oversaw an offense that ranked sixth in the nation by generating 495.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Morris deploys a run-first philosophy in an Air Raid scheme — North Texas was second in the FBS by averaging 191.2 rushing YPG. But the other side of the ball was a nightmare as they ranked 128th and 130th in the country by surrendering 37.1 Points-Per-Game and 476.4 total YPG. Nine starters return from the 5-7 team that failed to qualify for a bowl game. The Mean Green were then ravaged in the transfer portal with more than two dozen players exiting the program including most of their productive players on offense. Rogers responded by bringing in more than 40 players including 20 from Power Four conferences with an emphasis on improving the overall size of the team. The defense should be better under second-year defensive coordinator Matt Caponi since things cannot get worse. Morris lost starting quarterback Chandler Rogers who transferred to California. He brought in junior Chandler Morris from TCU to compete for the job this year. The skill position rooms have depth — but the offensive line needs to improve which is why Morris brought in five transfers. NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies stumbled out of the gate last season with four losses in their first five games, but they won six of their last eight games culminating in their 21-19 win against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Thomas Hammock lost 18 players in the transfer portal — but 16 starters return to lead an experienced roster featuring 30 seniors. Hammock has created a physical identity for his team with a run-first offense that often deploys either two tight ends (12) or two running back (21) personnel. Replacing quarterback Rocky Lombardi will be a challenge — the former Michigan State transfer led them to their MAC championship in 2021 — but he only completed 58.9% of his passes in his Northern Illinois career so there is room for the passing game to improve. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked 23rd in the nation by giving up only 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Hammock oversees a program that does a great job of overseeing the high school talent they recruit — so the losses in the transfer portal are not lethal. The Huskies were just 5-3 in conference play last year but they outgained these opponents by +79 YPG. OHIO: The Bobcats enjoyed their second-straight ten-win season after finishing 10-3 last year with their 41-21 victory against Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. But perhaps no other team has lost more players. Fourth-year head coach Tim Albin lost 34 players either to graduation or the transfer portal. Even more demoralizing for the Ohio faithful is that they have lost 21 players either to the NFL or via transfer to a bigger college football conference. Albin responded by adding 17 transfer players — but nine of these players were from the FCS level or lower so it is fair to say that they are losing this war of predators. The defense replaces nine of their top 12 tacklers and eight of the 13 players who logged-in at least 300 snaps. But Albin does return six players from that unit who got at least one start as a sophomore last season. The other side of the ball may be trickier to replace after losing their top six receivers, running back Sieh Bangura in the transfer portal to Minnesota and quarterback Kurtis Rourke in the transfer portal to Indiana. Rourke was a three-year starter who won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. If that was not enough, Albin also has new coordinators with Brian Smith running the offense and John Hauser overseeing the defense.OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes are going all-in this season to win the National Championship. Four players on defense bypassed the NFL to return for the chance to not only hoist a trophy but to also beat Michigan for the first time in their careers. Head coach Ryan Day also brought in four of the biggest prizes in the transfer portal. The defense gets even more talent with sophomore and second-team All-American Caleb Downs coming over from Alabama. He joins a unit that returns nine starters and ten of the 14 players who logged in 200 to more snaps that ranked second and third in the nation by only giving up 11.2 Points-Per-Game and 265.4 total Yards-Per-Game. First-team All-Big Ten running back TreVeyon Henderson is joined by Quinshon Judkins who was a two-time first-team All-SEC running back from Ole Miss. The offensive line was a weak link last season in both run blocking and pass protection. Senior center Seth McLaughlin comes in from Alabama. But the most important transfer will be dual-threat quarterback Will Howard who was a four-year starter at Kansas State. Day is also relinquishing the play-calling duties with his former mentor and NFL head coach Chip Kelly leaving UCLA and the headaches of running a college program to simply coach football and run an offense. Twenty players are on the roster with at least 12 collegiate starts in their career. But pressure comes with the sky-high expectations. The offensive line remains a concern — and so too is the quarterback. Howard was losing reps to Avery Johnson at Kansas State last year and he struggled with his deep passes in spring practice with the Buckeyes. He only completed 61% of his passes last season while throwing 10 interceptions. With Kyle McCord transferring to Syracuse, he has become the scapegoat for the loss at Michigan — but there is a good argument to be had that he is the better quarterback over Howard. He completed 65.5% of his passes with only six interceptions last season. McCord ranked seventh in the nation in Total Quarterback Rating while Howard ranked 23rd in that metric. PENN STATE: Another year for head coach James Franklin in Happy Valley and another ten-win campaign for the Nittany Lions for the fifth time in the last seven non-COVID seasons. But once again, Penn State fell short against Michigan and Ohio State — and then they lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl by a 35-28 score. The number one reason why the Nittany Lions cannot crash through this ceiling is their lack of elite future NFL talent at the skill positions. They only had 47 gains of more than 20 yards last season, ranking 97th in the nation. They only averaged 1.5 plays per game of 30 or more yards, ranking 110th in the nation. This lack of explosiveness on offense is simply putting too much pressure on the quarterback. Former five-star recruit Drew Allar threw 25 touchdown passes and just two interceptions last season — but against the Wolverines and Buckeyes, he completed only 28 of 64 passes for a mere 261 passing yards while appearing gun-shy to throw the ball down the field to attack the opposing defense. The wide receiver room continues to lack play-makers who can separate. In theory, the running back room is dynamic behind the one-two punch off juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen — but those two rushers went from generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry as freshmen to 4.8 YPC in their sophomore seasons last year. The offensive line replaces three starters to the NFL. Franklin did attempt to address the explosiveness problem in the offseason by poaching Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to run the offense. The defense should remain outstanding with seven starters back from the unit that ranked third and second in the nation by allowing only 13.5 Points-Per-Game and 247.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen takes over as defensive coordinator for Manny Diaz who took the Duke head coaching job. PITTSBURGH: In my preseason preview of the Panthers last season, I wondered if head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program after posting 20 victories in the previous two seasons — or was this a football team that will take a step or two back this season? After suffering their most losses since the 1998 season with a 3-9 mark last year, the answer is clear. The offense hit rock bottom by scoring only 20.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 317.9 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 114th in the nation in both categories. The defense ranked 73rd in the nation by giving up 27.3 PPG — and their SP+ defensive ranking of 59th was their lowest in five seasons using the metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Narduzzi addressed the offense by hiring 31-year-old Western Carolina offensive coordinator Kade Bell to run the offense. Bell will deploy a fast-tempo system with spread principles. It remains to be seen if Narduzzi will give Bell the freedom to implement his intended system or if his defensive principles will demand that some of those tactics get reined in. Up-tempo schemes tend to put additional pressure on their own defense since these offenses tend not to be on the field as much. Only two starters return on defense after two leaders from that unit left the program for the transfer portal in spring practice. That is not a ringing endorsement regarding where the program is headed. Narduzzi brought in nine transfer players to the defense including five on the defensive line — but with the secondary losing three NFL-caliber players to graduation, it is difficult not to see that this program is taking two steps back for every step forward. RUTGERS: After overseeing just a 12-22 record in his first three seasons back as the Scarlet Knights head coach, Greg Schiano’s team broke out with a 7-6 record after a 31-24 win against Miami (FL) in the Pinstripe Bowl to register their first winning season since 2014. There were concerns about Schiano’s culture a season ago at this time, but a year later sees him finally beginning to re-establish the roster depth he fostered in his first 11-year stint with the program — and recruiting is starting to take off. Rutgers brings a defense-first mentality to their games — they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing only 313.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Scarlet Knights return four of the five starters in their secondary that helped them rank 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 176.3 passing YPG — and they ranked 17th in Opponent Yards per Dropback Allowed. That group does lose cornerback Max Melton who got drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. But while the run defense ranked 41st by giving up 137.8 rushing YPG, the deeper metrics exposed them as ranking 101st in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also ranked 101st in Sack Rate. The defensive front is undersized but one of the most experienced units in the nation. The front seven features three fifth-year seniors and one sixth-year senior. Eight starters return on defense — and another eight starters are back on offense including three starters on the offensive line. That line has four seniors this season and returns 48 of the 65 starts from their 13 games last season. Under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, Rutgers ran the ball 61.9% of the time which was the eighth-highest amount in the FBS. While this physical run-first approach allowed them to be flat-track bullies against lesser competition, the Scarlet Knights only managed to score 8.4 Points-Per-Game in their five games against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Schiano addressed the problems in the passing game by bringing in senior quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis who previously played for Ciarocca at Minnesota. The “Greek Rifle” has 17 career starts after starting in 12 games for the Golden Gophers last season. SAN JOSE STATE: The new head coach is Ken Niumatalolo who previously served as the head coach at Navy for 15 seasons. He replaces Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. This Spartans team lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal — so things are all but starting over at San Jose State. While Niumatalolo’s Navy teams deployed the spread triple option rushing attack, that will not be the offense the Spartans operate. Instead, Niumatalolo hired Texas State passing coordinator Chris Stutzmann as his offensive coordinator. The former Hawai’i wide receiver will install an offense based on Run-and-Shot and Air Raid principles. Niumatalolo was able to retain defensive coordinator Derrick Odum who returns for his seventh season with the program. After surrendering 39.8 Points-Per-Game in their first six games, San Jose State held their final six Mountain West Conference opponents to just 17.8 PPG. They finished with a 7-6 record after a 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina in the Hawai’i Bowl.SOUTH FLORIDA: The Bulls experienced an instant and incredible turnaround last season in the first year under new head coach Alex Golesh by posting a 7-6 record that culminated in a triumphant 45-0 blowout victory against Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. They also played Alabama close in a 17-3 loss. Golesh inherited a program that went just 4-29 in the three seasons under previous head coach Jeff Scott and who had lost 33 of their last 34 games against FBS opponents since 2019. The former Tennessee offensive coordinator installed a simple but effective up-tempo offense that ranked 17th in the nation by generating 451.6 Yards-Per-Game. The South Florida offense led the nation in total plays per game and ranked fourth in total drives per game. One of Golesh’s first good decisions was to name redshirt freshman Byrum Brown as his starting quarterback. Brown responded by completing 64.9% of his passes for 3292 yards and adding another 809 yards on the ground. If he can improve his down-the-field accuracy, he will become one of the most complete quarterbacks in the nation. Eighteen starters return to what will be one of the most experienced teams in the FBS. Eight starters are back on defense along with 10 of their 14 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. That unit needs to improve after ranking 115th in the nation by surrendering 432.5 total YPG — but shutting out the Orange and holding the Crimson Tide to 17 points demonstrates their potential. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: After winning only six games in his first two seasons for a 6-16 overall record, head coach Will Hall oversaw the Golden Eagles earning their first bowl victory since 2016 with a 38-24 win against Rice in the Lending Tree Bowl two years ago. My biggest question regarding the program was whether or not that 7-6 campaign was a momentary blip on the radar — or will this be the new normal for this team under Hall? The former Tulsa offensive coordinator built consistent winners at the Division II level with West Georgia and West Alabama last decade — so he has a track record of success. But his team was outgained by -38 net YPG in Sun Belt Conference play despite their 4-4 record. Fifteen starters were back from last season led by running back Frank Gore, Jr. — but solving the quarterback issue has remained a problem with Hall resorting to using Gore in the wildcat formation and even as an occasional passer in the past. After losing seven of their first eight games and finishing the season with a 3-9 record last year, it looks like the bowl run in 2022 was an aberration. Injuries played a role — but Group of Five programs in this new era lack the luxury of assuming they will simply stay healthy. The biggest program was on defense where the Golden Eagles ranked 125th and 109th in the nation by surrendering 35.8 Points-Per-Game and 420.9 total Yards-Per-Game. Six starters are back from that group — and the offense has four starters back along with Florida State transfer Tate Rodemaker at quarterback. Hall did bring in the top recruiting class in the Sun Belt conference — but if he does get back to a bowl game in his fourth year with the program, the hot seat he presides on may end up precluding him from getting to see the fruition of that freshman class. TENNESSEE: The Volunteers' defense took a big step in the right direction last season by holding their opponents to 335.2 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 32nd in the nation and represented a -70.1 net YPG improvement to what they surrendered the previous season. While the pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack by ranking 64th in the nation by giving up 221.5 passing, that was still a significant improvement from the previous season when they ranked 126th by giving up 289.5 passing YPG. But fourth-year defensive coordinator Tim Banks faces a big challenge after losing 11 players from the secondary either to the NFL or the transfer portal. But Banks claims he may have the best defensive line in the nation — and with a rotation that goes ten deep, he might be right. James Pearce, Jr. anchors the unit — and the first-team All-SEC defensive end may be one of the top ten picks in the next NFL draft. The ability and the willingness to rotate these defensive linemen should give Tennessee a big edge late in games. Freshman Nico Iamaleava is probably an upgrade at quarterback over Joe Milton. The former five-star recruit was the MVP in the Citrus Bowl after accounting for four touchdowns. But the question remains if this program can take the next step by staying competitive with the best teams in the country. They lost all three of their games last year against teams that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings system — and the average loss in those three games was by -24 Points-Per-Game. TEXAS: The Longhorns return 15 starters from the team that won the Big 12 Championship and reached the College Football Playoffs where they lost to Washington by a 37-31 score in the Semifinals. Head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in another 25 new plays to this group with the sky-high expectation that they play for the National Championship this season. Quarterback Quinn Ewers bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season and third year as the starter — but sophomore Arch Manning looms behind him. Ewers completed 69.0% of his passes for 3479 yards. While he is very accurate with intermediate routes, he is not as much of a threat in the vertical passing game down the field. He also struggles with timing routes and does not throw his targets open. Six other starters are back on offense including four offensive linemen in what could be the best offensive line in the nation. Eight starters are back on defense — but their pass defense must improve. Texas ranked 113th by surrendering 254.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and six of their opponents passed for at least 300 yards against them. Only one starter is back in the secondary with Sarkisian hitting the transfer portal to improve the talent. I do worry about Sarkisian’s temperament to lead a team to a national title. He has always been anointed as the Chosen One regarding the next wunderkind offensive mind and head coach — and he always gets another chance to fulfill this perception of potential. The team motto he installed for this team was “obsessed” — and I’m just not sure that is the healthiest of mindsets to prepare a team to handle adversity. The fact that he is a recovering alcoholic makes it even worse. Yo, “obsession” is not a healthy characteristic! Players and coaches can commit to the work ethic necessary to put the team in a position to win a national championship without it becoming (and glorifying it) an obsession. Does the zeal to become “obsessed” indirectly put too much pressure on this team? TOLEDO: The Rockets return eight starters from the group that went undefeated in the Mid-American Conference regular season before getting upset in the MAC Championship Game by a 23-14 score to Miami (OH). Head coach Jason Candle’s team won the MAC Championship the year before — and they did finish 11-3 last year despite then losing to Wyoming Bowl in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score with a depleted roster. Candle is doing a great job after eight seasons with the program — and the Rockets have not had a losing season since 2009. His ability to identify high school talent and then develop it in his program has been his calling card. This skill will be challenged this season with only eight starters back from his 11-3 club. He lost starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone in the transfer portal — and the offensive line must be completely rebuilt after losing all five starters from last season. The secondary also lost cornerbacks Quinton Mitchell and Chris McDonald with both graduating — Mitchell was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and McDonald was an All-MAC awardee. TULANE: After the Green Wave went 23-5 in the last two seasons including a victory against USC in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, Willie Fritz took the head coaching job at Houston. But Tulane managed to bring in another excellent head coach in Jon Sumrall who posted a 23-4 record in his two seasons at Troy. He inherits 15 starters — and he was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 11 additional players on offense and another 10 players on defense. Of particular note are the three blue-chippers he brought in offense. Quarterback Ty Thompson was a former five-star recruit at Oregon who played behind Bo Nix last season. Two dynamic wide receivers join him: Mario Williams from USC and Shazz Preston from Alabama. Because former Troy offensive coordinator Jordan Craddock likes to deploy two-tight end 12 personnel, tight end Alex Bauman bypassed the transfer window to return to Tulane for his junior season. UTSA: The Frank Harris era finally comes to a close for the Roadrunners after the quarterback graduated after being in the program for seven seasons to become the best football player in school history. Injuries and the COVID hardship year account for the seven-year career — he led UTSA to 32 victories in the last three seasons, including two Conference USA Championship Game wins. The Roadrunners finished 9-4 last year after their 35-17 victory against Marshall. Fourteen starters return. Head coach Jeff Traylor did lose some important players in the transfer portal, but he was aggressive in filling those holes, including several former blue-chip recruits from Power Four conferences. This could be his deepest roster yet in his five seasons with the program. VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies return 19 starters from the team that finished with five wins in their last seven games to end with a 7-6 record. They bear Tulane by a 41-20 score in the Military Bowl. Enthusiasm is high, with junior quarterback Kyron Drones returning after igniting the team in the second half of the season when he was inserted into the starting lineup. Virginia Tech outgained their ACC opponents by +107 Yards-Per-Game. In their final seven games with Drones under center, they scored 34.7 Points-Per-Game. The defense returns eight starters from a group that ranked fourth in sacks per dropback rate and fourth by holding their opponents to 168.8 passing Yards-Per-Game. WEST VIRGINIA: Neal Brown was on the hot seat last year going into his fifth season as the head coach of the Mountaineers. West Virginia had a 22-25 record in his first four seasons. With his fourth offensive coordinator in his tenure, he took responsibility for that side of the ball by taking over the play-calling. Armed with the knowledge that his team was 18-4 if they ran for at least 100 yards (3-21 if they failed to reach 100 rushing yards), Brown committed to a ground-and-pound identity with a Thunder and Lightning duo at running back. C.J. Donaldson and Jaheim White combined to rush for 1570 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Mountaineers won five of their final six games, including a 30-10 victory against North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl to finish 9-4. Brown was given a multi-year extension. Eight starters are back on offense including both those running backs and senior dual-threat quarterback. Brown has struggled with how he has handled the transfer portal in the past — and he changed his tactics by focusing more on player retention and using the portal to address specific problems. His attention was on the secondary in the offseason as he brought in six transfers including five cornerbacks to bolster his pass defense. They join five returning starters on that side of the ball. The roster looks better but the Big 12 schedule is brutal. WESTERN KENTUCKY: Head coach Tyson Helton returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 after rallying from 28 points down to beat Old Dominion in overtime in the Famous Tastery Bowl. Nine starters are back on offense but that unit moves on from two-year starter Austin Reed who got drafted into the NFL. Helton brought in junior T.J. Finley from Texas State to compete for the starting quarterback job. The former Auburn signal-caller passed for 3439 yards with 24 touchdown passes and eight interceptions for the Bobcats last season. But he will have to beat out redshirt sophomore Caden Veltkamp who threw for 383 yards and five touchdown passes in the bowl game. The other side of the beak continues to be the problem for the Hilltoppers after they ranked 108th in the nation by giving up 419.7 total Yards-Per-Game. That unit lost nine of the 16 players who logged in at least 350 snaps last year. Helton hit the transfer portal by bringing in another five players to try to improve the talent level on defense. Helton has been very reliant on using the transfer portal but he perhaps has become too dependent on short-term one-year fixes. After leading Conference USA with a +136 net YPG mark, they only outgained conference rivals by +13 net YPG last season. Best of luck -- Frank.
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