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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Football, EPL, NCAA Basketball and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 21, 2020

The Monday sports card offers a busy slate of action with NFL Monday Night Football, the English Premier League, college basketball, and the kickoff of the 2020-21 college football bowl season.The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl starts at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN, with North Texas playing Appalachian State. The game takes place at Brooks Stadium at the home stadium of Coastal Carolina in Conway, South Carolina. Appalachian State concluded their regular season with a 34-26 win against Georgia Southern on December 12th. The Mountaineers are 8-3 on the season, with their three losses coming against opponents who combined for a 27-2 record. This program has won all five of their bowl appearances after defeating UAB in the New Orleans Bow last year by a 31-17 score. Senior quarterback Zac Thomas makes his final career collegiate start with a 31-6 career record.North Texas defeated UTEP on the road by a 45-43 score to raise their record to a 4-5 mark. This contest is the Mean Green’s fourth bowl game opportunity in the last five seasons after missing out on a postseason game last year under fifth-year head coach Sean Littrell.Appalachian State is a 21-point favorite with the total set at 64.5 (all odds from BetOnline).The college basketball schedule tips off a noon ET with Clemson hosting Morehead State as a 23-point favorite with an over/under of 126.5. The Tigers rank 24th in the Associated Press poll.The nationally-televised schedule begins at 7:30 PM ET on FS1, with Butler playing at home against Southern Illinois. The Bulldogs are a 9-point favorite with a total of 133.Tulsa visits Memphis at 8 PM ET on ESPN2 in an American Athletic Conference clash. The Tigers are an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Murray State plays at Austin Peay in an Ohio Valley Conference game at 8 PM ET on ESPNU. The Racers are a 4-point road favorite with the total at 145.The English Premier League concludes Matchweek 14 with two games. At 12:30 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network, Wolverhampton plays at Burnley as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2. Chelsea hosts West Ham United at 3 PM ET on NBC as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.Monday Night Football features a rematch of the Steelers’ 36-10 victory at home over the Bengals on November 15th. Pittsburgh would go on to win two more games in a row for an 11-0 start. But the Steelers have since lost two games in a row after their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night. Pittsburgh gained only 224 yards in that game, with the Bills outgaining them by 110 yards. The Steelers are currently the second seed in the AFC playoff race with their 11-2 record. A loss would drop them to the third seed in the AFC since they would lose the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bills after their loss to Buffalo last week.Cincinnati lost their fifth games in a row with their 30-7 loss to Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. The Bengals outgained the Cowboys by 37 net yards by holding them to just 272 yards. A 78-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the first quarter helped Dallas overcome that edge to cruise to the victory in quarterback Andy Dalton’s return to Paul Brown Stadium.Pittsburgh is a 14-point road favorite with the total set at 40.5. ESPN broadcasts the game with the kickoff at 8:15 PM ET.

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NFL Monday Night Football: Bengals/Steelers Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 21, 2020

Monday Night Football features a rematch of the Steelers’ 36-10 victory at home over the Bengals on November 15th. Pittsburgh was a  6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45 in that game. That victory was the Steelers’ ninth victory in a row at the time. Ben Roethlisberger completed 27 of 46 passes for a season-high 333 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions to lead his team to the win. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow completed 21 of 40 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass in the losing effort. Pittsburgh would go on to win two more games in a row for an 11-0 start. But the Steelers have since lost two games in a row after their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night. Pittsburgh gained only 224 yards in that game, with the Bills outgaining them by 110 yards. The Steelers are currently the second seed in the AFC playoff race with their 11-2 record. A loss would drop them to the third seed in the AFC since they would lose the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bills after their loss to Buffalo last week.Roethlisberger completed 21 of 37 passes for 187 yards with two touchdown passes and two interceptions in the loss. The veteran is completing 66.2% of his passes this season for 3292 yards with 29 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.  Pittsburgh needed the eight-day break between games after playing three games in twelve days impacted by COVID-related rescheduling. The Steelers did not score more than 19 points in those three contests. Cincinnati lost their fifth games in a row with their 30-7 loss to Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. The Bengals outgained the Cowboys by 37 net yards by holding them to just 272 yards. A 78-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the first quarter helped Dallas overcome that edge to cruise to the victory in quarterback Andy Dalton’s return to Paul Brown Stadium.The Bengals’ Brandon Allen completed 27 of 36 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass in the losing effort. Allen got knocked out of the game with a knee injury that will keep him from starting tonight. Ryan Finley gets the start in his absence with Cincinnati down to their third-string quarterback with Burrow out the year with his leg injury. The former Boise State quarterback has completed 10 of 19 passes for a 52.6% completion percentage this season. He has thrown for 75 yards with no touchdown passes and two interceptions. In his two years in the NFL, Finley has completed 51 of 106 passes for a 48.1% completion percentage. He has 549 yards but just a 5.2 yards-per-attempt average. Finley has two touchdown passes and four interceptions. Cincinnati is 2-10-1 on the season, which is the third-worst record in the league. With the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars sharing 1-13 marks, the Bengals look destined to own the third pick in next spring’s NFL draft. Linebacker Logan Wilson joins Brandon Allen in being the two players out for this game for Cincinnati due to injury. Safety and kick returner Brandon Wilson is questionable but did practice on Saturday. Defensive lineman Geno Atkins became the tenth player earlier in the week to either go on Injured Reserve with his shoulder injury.Pittsburgh has one player out with guard Kevin Dotson dealing with a shoulder. James Conner is questionable with his quad. The Steelers have another six players either out the season or on Injured Reserve, including linebackers Bud Dupree and Devin Bush.Pittsburgh is a 14.5-point road favorite with the total set at 40 at BookMaker. ESPN broadcasts the game with the kickoff at 8:15 PM ET.

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Browns/Giants Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 20, 2020

Sunday Night Football on NBC features a game with playoff implications for both teams.Cleveland had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 47-42 loss at home to Baltimore as a 3-point underdog in one of the most exciting football games of the season. The Browns outgained the Ravens by a 493 to 385 yardage margin, but Lamar Jackson was able to outduel Baker Mayfield at quarterback.The loss left Cleveland two games behind Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North. With a 9-4 record, they join Tennessee and Indianapolis for the top wildcard spot in the AFC. The Browns own the tie-breaker with both those AFC South teams after beating both of them earlier in the season. New York also had their four-game winning streak end last week with their 26-7 loss at home to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. The Giants managed only 159 yards in that game while allowing the Cardinals to rack up 390 total yards. Daniel Jones was back under center after missing the previous week with a hamstring injury. After getting sacked six times, Jones left the game with two separate injuries, which will keep him from starting tonight. Colt McCoy will be the starting quarterback for New York after leading them to victory two weeks ago against Seattle. The Giants are one game behind Washington for first place in the NFC East with their 5-9 record. Despite their recent winning streak, New York has scored only 24 combined points in their last two games and 43 combined points in their previous three games.Cleveland has scored over 40 points in two straight games. But the Browns defense has given up 82 combined points in their last two games and 107 combined points in their previous three contests. The Giants have a COVID outbreak that will keep offensive coordinator Jason Garrett from calling plays in this game. Tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens will be the play-caller tonight against the team he was the head coach for last season. Cornerback James Bradberry is also out for this game with COVID leaving New York without their best defensive back. The Giants have four players listed as questionable, including Jones with his hamstring and ankle injuries. Tight ends Evan Engram and Kaden Smith and offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler all participated in limited practice this week. Cornerback Darnay Holmes is out with a knee. New York has five other players either out the season or on Injured Reserve, including running back Saquon Barkley. Cleveland has two players out in offensive lineman Wyatt Teller and safety Andrew Sendejo. Tight end Austin Hooper is questionable with a neck injury, but he did participate in full practice to end the week. Tight end David Njoku is questionable with a knee and did not take part in practice this week. Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson are questionable but did take part in limited practice. The Browns have five players out the season or on their Injured Reserve, including wide receiver Odell Beckham, cornerback Greedy Williams, and safety Ronnie Harrison.BookMaker lists Cleveland as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 44. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Basketball and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 20, 2020

The Sunday sports card continues Week 15 in the National Football League while featuring a full slate in college basketball and four matches in the English Premier League.Twelve games are on the docket in the NFL. Eight games begin the card at 1 PM ET. The national broadcast on Fox has Seattle traveling east to play Washington. The Seahawks are a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 43 (all odds from BetOnline). The primary game on CBS has San Francisco visiting Dallas with the 49ers a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 45Three more games take place in the 4:05 PM ET to 4:20 PM ET window of afternoon games. The national game on CBS has Kansas City playing at New Orleans as a 3-point road favorite with the total at 52.5.The Sunday night game on NBC has Cleveland playing in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants at 8:20 PM ET. The Browns are a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 44. The college basketball card begins at noon ET in the Big East, with Creighton visiting UConn on FS1 as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 150. The Bluejays rank 9th in the Associated Press poll. At 1 PM ET, Illinois plays at Rutgers on ESPN2 with the Fighting Illini a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. In this Big Ten showdown of two teams ranked in the top-20, Illinois is 13th in the AP, while the Scarlet Knights rank 19th.Xavier hosts Marquette at 3 PM ET on FS1 as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 142.5 in this Big East matchup. Northern Kentucky plays at home against Youngstown State at 3 PM ET on ESPN2 in a Horizon League contest. Seton Hall plays at home against Big East rival Providence at 4:30 PM ET on FS1 as a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under at 140. St. John’s hosts Georgetown in another Big East battle at 6:30 PM ET on FS1 as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 156. The televised card concludes at 8:30 PM ET with Saint Louis visiting Minnesota on FS1 as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 146.The English Premier League continues Matchweek 14 with four matches. At 7 AM ET on the NBC Peacock app, Brighton and Hove Albion plays at home versus Sheffield United as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.25. Tottenham hosts Leicester City at 9:15 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Manchester United plays at home against Leeds United at 11:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total at 3.5. The final match is at 2:15 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network with Aston Villa playing at West Bromwich Albion as a -0.5 goal line road favorite an over/under of 2.75.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NCAA Football and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 19, 2020

The Saturday sports card features a full day of college football and college basketball action along with the start of Matchweek 13 of the English Premier League and two games in the NFL. The NFL Network’s double-header kicks off at 4:30 PM ET with Buffalo traveling to Denver to face the Broncos. The Bills have won six of their last seven games after they defeated Pittsburgh at home for Sunday Night Football last week by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite. Denver comes off an upset victory at Carolina last week as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo is a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 49 (all odds from BetOnline). The nightcap at 8:15 PM ET has Carolina visiting Lambeau Field to play Green Bay. The Packers have won three straight games after they beat Detroit on the road last week by a 31-24 score as a 9.5-point favorite. The Panthers have lost seven of their last eight games after getting upset at home to the Broncos. Green Bay is laying 9 points as the favorite with the over/under at 51.5.Fifteen games between FBS opponents are on the college football schedule. There were seven games canceled due to COVID issues with Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Louisiana-Lafayette and Coastal Carolina after the Chanticleers experienced a COVID outbreak that left an entire position group unable to take the field. The Frisco Bowl between SMU and UTSA was also canceled. The remaining five canceled games include Vanderbilt/Georgia; Georgia Tech/Miami (FL); Arizona/California; Michigan State/Maryland; Michigan/Iowa; Florida State/Wake Forest.The Big Ten Championship Game kicks off the card at noon with Northwestern playing Ohio State at a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes are 18.5-point favorites with a total of 55.5. The game is on Fox.The Big 12 Championship Game also starts at noon with a rematch between Oklahoma and Iowa State played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Sooners are 5.5-point favorites with the over/under at 58.5. ABC has the broadcast.Texas A&M plays at Tennessee at noon on ESPN as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 51. At 1:30 PM ET, Utah hosts Washington State as a 10.5-point favorite on FS1. Air Force visits Army at 3 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with the over/under at 38.5.The ACC Championship Game is at 4 PM ET with the rematch between Clemson and Notre Dame on ABC at a neutral field at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. The Tigers are a 10-point favorite with a total of 59.5. The Mountain West Conference Championship Game starts at 4:15 PM ET between Boise State and San Jose State. This game will be played at the Spartans' temporary home field in Las Vegas at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5. Fox has the broadcast.At 5:30 PM ET, Penn State hosts Illinois on FS1 as a 15.5-point favorite with the total set at 53. UCLA plays at home against Stanford on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 59.5.The American Athletic Conference Championship Game is at 8 PM ET on ABC, with Tulsa playing at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are a 14-point favorite with the total at 45.The SEC Championship is also at 8 PM ET, with Alabama playing Florida on CBS at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are 10-point favorites with an over/under of 74.5.The college football card concludes at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN with Arizona State playing at Oregon State. The Sun Devils are 7-point road favorites with the total set at 54.5.The college basketball card tips off at 11:30 AM on FS1, with Butler hosting Indiana in the first game in Crossroads Classic. The Hoosiers are 8-point favorites, and the total is 132.5. At noon ET, Gonzaga plays Iowa on CBS in a battle between the number one and number three ranked teams in the Associated Press poll. The Bulldogs are 4.5-point favorites with the over/under at 170. This game is being played on a neutral court at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Wisconsin hosts Louisville on ESPN2 at noon ET in a clash between the 23rd and 12th ranked teams in the AP poll. The Badgers are 5.5-point favorites, with the total at 131.5. At 2 PM ET, the first game of the CBS Sports Classic tips off between North Carolina and Kentucky on CBS. The 22nd ranked Tar Heels are 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 141. Alabama hosts Western Kentucky at 2 PM ET on ESPNU as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 153.5. Ole Miss travels to Dayton at 2:30 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 132. The second game in the CBS Sports Classic takes place at 4:15 PM ET, with UCLA playing Ohio State. The Bruins are 3-point favorites against the 20th ranked Buckeyes, with the total set at 135. At 4:30 PM ET, LaSalle plays at home against Delaware on the NBC Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 133.5. The final nationally-televised game on the Saturday card takes place at 9 PM ET with Villanova hosting Saint Joseph’s on FS1. The 7th ranked Wildcats are 22-point favorites with the total set at 145.5.Matchweek 14 of the English Premier League has four matches on Saturday. Liverpool visits Crystal Palace at 7:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3. At 10 AM ET, Manchester City plays at Southampton on the NBC Sports Network as a -1 goal line road favorite with the total at 3. Everton hosts Arsenal at 12:30 PM ET on NBC as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. At 3 PM ET on the NBC Peacock app, Fulham plays at Newcastle United in a pick ‘em match with the total at 2.25.

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Big 10 Championship Game Preview

by ASA, Inc.

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Ohio State vs Northwestern – Saturday @ Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis CURRENT ODDS – Ohio State -20.5 / TOTAL 57  OHIO STATE (5-0 SU / 3-2 ATS) - The Buckeyes picked up another unplanned bye week when their rivalry game vs Michigan was cancelled.  It’s their 3rd week off this season.  The Big 10 originally decided that in order for a team to be eligible for the Championship game, they must play at least 6 games.  The schools revisited that plan last week and tweaked it so Ohio State, who is 5-0, can play on Saturday.  In their most recent game the Bucks were hit hard by the conference covid protocol as they had 20+ players out @ Michigan State, including 3 starting offensive linemen.  It didn’t matter as they crushed the Spartans 52-12.  Despite starting 3 freshmen back ups on the offensive line, OSU was able to rush for 322 yards on 6.7 YPC.  The only time OSU was really threatened this year was their home game vs Indiana.  They won that game 42-35 but led 28-7 at half and let the Hoosiers back in it.  Their other relatively close game was a 12 point win over Rutgers.  Same scenario in that game with the Bucks leading 35-3 at half, pulling their foot off the gas, and letting Rutgers cut into the lead.  The Buckeyes were 3-2 ATS this year and those were the 2 games they did not cover even though it looked like they may at halftime.  How dominant were the Buckeyes this year?  Their total minutes played this year was 300 (5 games) and they trailed for a grand total of 5 minutes this season.  That was the first game of the season vs Nebraska when the Huskers scored on their opening drive to take a 7-0 lead.  The offense is arguably the best in the nation.  They rank 1st in the Big 10 in total offense (6th nationally) and 1st in the conference in scoring (4th nationally).  Their defensive weakness is vs the pass.  They rank dead last in the Big 10 in pass defense and 111th nationally.  The Buckeyes caught a nice break on their week off when Florida lost to LSU.  That loss most likely puts OSU in College Football’s Final 4 with a win here.  It sounds like the Bucks will have most if not all of the players back who missed the MSU game because of their covid situation.  Something we’ll have to keep an eye on as the week progresses.    NORTHWESTERN (6-1 SU / 5-1-1 ATS) – While Ohio State had last week off, Northwestern was playing their year end rivalry game vs Illinois.  The Cats closed out the regular season with one of their best offensive performances of the season rolling up 493 total yards in their 28-10 win and cover.  The excitement of a big offensive day may need to be tempered a bit as Illinois now ranks dead last in the Big 10 in total defense.  QB Ramsey completed only 7 passes the entire game but the Wildcats ran for 411 yards on 58 carries.  It was the first time in 17 years they rushed for more than 400 yards in a single game.  That’s been Northwestern’s game plan for much of the season.  Run the ball, eat clock, and let their defense and special teams win games for them.  They’ve done that well this season as the 6-1 Wildcats have scored 21 point or less in half of their wins this season (3).  The defense has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this year.  They rank 12th in the Big 10 in total offense and 3rd in total defense (#1 in scoring defense).  They’ve run the ball more often than any other team in the conference averaging 44 carries per game.  The problem is, they aren’t great at running the ball.  They average just 3.9 YPC and that’s with their huge effort on Saturday vs the Illini.  Prior to that game they were averaging only 3.1 YPC on the season.  The Wildcats will more than likely have to change their offensive game plan entering Saturday’s game vs OSU.  The Bucks allow just 95 YPG on the ground but can be taken advantage of through the air as we mentioned above.  It they are able to pull the upset here, much of it will probably fall on QB Ramsey’s shoulders.  He’s rarely been asked to light it up through the air as the Cats average just 180 YPG passing which is 13th in the conference and 106th nationally.  While NW hasn’t asked him to be the main cog in the offense, Ramsey has proven he can carry the load in the past as he threw for 6,500 yards and 42 TD’s in his 3 years @ Indiana prior to coming to Northwestern.   OHIO STATE BIG 10 STATS (conference ranking in parentheses) Scoring Offense 46.6 (1st) / Defense 23.3 (5th)Total Offense 532.4 (1st) / Defense 363.8 (6th)Yards Per Play Offense 7.3 (1st) / Defense 5.6 (10th)Rush Offense 251 (1st) / Defense 95 (2nd)Rushing YP Carry Offense 5.5 (1st) / Defense 3.4 (3rd)Pass Offense 281.4 (2nd) / Defense 268.8 (14th)Pass YP Attempt Offense 10.3 (1st) / Defense 7.2 (8th)  NORTHWESTERN BIG 10 STATS (conference ranking in parentheses) Scoring Offense 25.3 (9th) / Defense 14.6 (1st)Total Offense 351.4 (12th) / Defense 313.9 (3rd)Yards Per Play Offense 4.7 (13th) / Defense 4.5 (2nd)Rush Offense 170.6 (7th) / Defense 121.9 (4th)Rushing YP Carry 3.9 (9th) / Defense 3.8 (6th)Pass Offense 180.9 (13th) / 192 Defense (2nd)Pass YP Attempt Offense 6.0 (13th) / Defense 5.0 (1st)  STATS vs COMMON OPPONENTS – 2 common opponents this season Ohio State (-21.5) vs Michigan State – 52-12 Win / +260 total yard advantage / +241 rushing advantage / +19 passing advantage / -1 turnover margin Northwestern (-13.5) vs Michigan State – 20-29 Loss / -77 total yard disadvantage / -132 rushing disadvantage / +55 passing advantage / +0 turnover margin Ohio State (-28) vs Nebraska – 52-17 Win / +121 total yard advantage / +5 rushing advantage / +116 passing advantage / -1 turnover margin Northwestern (-4) vs Nebraska – 21-13 Win / -125 total yard disadvantage / -76 rushing disadvantage / -49 passing disadvantage / -2 turnover margin  THE 5 MOST RECENT MEETINGS 2019 - Ohio State 52, Northwestern 3 (OSU +281 total yard advantage)2018 – BT CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ohio State 45, Northwestern 24 (OSU +189 total yard advantage)2016 – Ohio State 24, Northwestern 20 (OSU +25 total yard advantage)2013 – Ohio State 40, Northwestern 30 (OSU +14 total yard advantage)2008 – Ohio State 45, Northwestern 10 (OSU +147 total yard advantage)  POINTSPREAD NUGGET – These 2 Big Ten foes have faced off 27 times since 1980.  The Buckeyes are 26-1 SU & 17-9 ATS in those games including covering 7 of the last 8 meetings.  OSU has scored at least 40 points in 16 of those 27 meetings including 7 of the last 8.  These two have met 7 times since 2006 and the OVER has cashed in 6 of those games with an average of 60.2 total points scored.    

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Ness Notes: Friday, Dec 18

by Larry Ness

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."Thursday Night NFL: Las Vegas lost starting QB Derek Carr to a left groin injury suffered on a scramble late in the first quarter but Marcus Mariota, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans, was outstanding in his Raiders' debut. He completed 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards (one TD / one INT) plus ran for a game-high 88 yards and a TD on nine carries. However, the Raiders' offense was NOT the problem last night. In the end, the Las Vegas D could not stop LA rookie QB Justin Herbert. Herbert barely stretched the ball into the end zone on a third-and-goal dive off left tackle with 1:29 remaining in overtime as the visiting Chargers won 30-27. Las Vegas lost for the FOURTH time in its last five games and its postseason hopes have all but 'expired.' The LA win snapped a NINE-game division losing streak with their second consecutive victory. Just as notable, Herbert (22 of 32 for 314 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) tied the NFL rookie record for TD passes in a season. With two games remaining in 2020 he has 27, tying him with the Cleveland Browns' Baker Mayfield, who set the mark in 2018. That's not all. His 314-yard effort was his SEVENTH 300-yard game (or more), setting a rookie record. Philip Rivers is having a good year with the 9-4 Colts but it would be hard to argue against the premise that the Chargers have found a 'franchise' QB!CBB: We finally got a ranked vs ranked matchup on Thursday, as No. 5 Kansas visited Lubbock to take on No. 14 Texas Tech. It was the Big 12 opener for both schools, the earliest Big 12 opener for either team since the conference formed 24 years ago. Kansas led 29-26 at halftime but Texas Tech seemed to have control midway through the second half when it extended the lead to 46-39. However, the Jayhawks responded with a 10-0 surge and regained the lead with 7:18 remaining. The rest of the game went back-and-forth, until Kansas went up by a point with 13 seconds left. Jalen Wilson blocked a shot on the other end of the floor right before time expired to lift the Jayhawks to a 58-57 victory. There are no top-25 matchups on Friday, with the higher ranked team checking in at 10-5 SU but just 7-8 ATS on the season. There was just one Thursday game featuring ranked vs unranked opponents, as No. 9 Creighton won 94-76 at St John's. The Bluejays led throughout but the Red Storm pulled to within 52-50 with 14:25 left. However, Creighton then went on a 22-4 run! Ranked teams are 92-13 (.876) SU but a more modest 59-44-2 (57.3%) ATS against unranked opponents Y-T-D.There are three games between ranked and unranked ones on Friday with two top-10 teams in action. No. 8 West Va (6-1) is a top-10 team for the first time since January of 2018 and is home to 1-3 Iowa St plus No. 10 Tennessee (3-0) hosts 0-7 Tenn Tech. West Va is favored by 15 1/2-points and Tennessee by 28 1/2-points. Two undefeated top-25 teams were set to host games as well. Missouri, which entered the rankings for the first time this past Monday at No. 16, was scheduled to host Prairie View A&M but it's been canceled. No. 18 San Diego St (5-0) hosts a dangerous 6-2 BYU team. Remember, the Aztecs opened last season 26-0. The Aztecs have won the teams' last four meetings, including a road win last November. San Diego St is favored by 7 1/2-points.CFB's Championship Game weekend: COVID  strikes again! Coastal Carolina was coming off a 5-7 season but the Chanticleers are the lone FBS team to win 11 games so far in 2020 (11-0) and became the first SBC school to crack the AP top-10 this past Sunday at No. 9. Coastal was ranked No. 12 in the CFP rankings and with a win in the SBC title, had a reasonable chance to become the Group of 5's highest ranked IF, Tulsa could win at No. 9 Cincinnati (8-0) in the AAC title game. However, Saturday’s title game between Coastal Carolina and No. 19 Louisiana (9-1) has been canceled because an entire position group at Coastal Carolina had been exposed to a teammate who tested positive for COVID-19 and would be unable to play the game. I guess it's still possible a Cincy home loss to Tulsa would allow Coastal to leapfrog the Bearcats but that's less likely than if the Chanticleers had beaten ULL. It's also a blow to ULL, which beat now-No. 6 Iowa State to begin the season with its only loss coming in a 30-27 defeat to Coastal back on Oct 14. It becomes the first (and hopefully the ONLY) title game to be canceled. "Fingers crossed."There are THREE conference title games scheduled for Friday, the MAC, C-USA and the Pac-12. 5-0 Buffalo is No. 23 in the AP poll but unranked in the CFP standings and will take on 5-1 Ball State at Ford Field for the MAC title (7:30 ET). Buffalo is in the title game for the second time in three years after losing to Northern Illinois in 2018. Buffalo last won it in 2008 and Ball State’s last championship was in 1996. The Bulls are favored by 13 1/2-points. When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 Conference football season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) and USC (AP preseason No. 17) were the favorites to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0, Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washington at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans on Friday night. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks will replace the Huskies in the championship game at LA's Memorial Coliseum (8:00 ET). USC is favored by three points. UAB is back in the C-USA championship game for the THIRD straight year, becoming the first C-USA program to accomplish such a feat. The Blazers won 27-25 at MTSU in 2018 and then lost last year at FAU, 49-6. UAB will again be the road team in 2020, as it travels to Huntington, West Va to take on Marshall's Thundering Herd at 7:00 ET. The Blazers are 5-3 on the season, with their 3-1 conference record being good enough to win the West. UAB lost 37-34 (2 OTs) at La Tech on Oct 31 but didn't play again until its 21-16 win at Rice on Dec 12, clinching the school's third straight division title. Marshall knows MORE than a little about Rice, as the Thundering Herd (which also saw games canceled due to COVID issues) was 7-0 when it hosted Rice on Dec 5 and shockingly lost 20-0 as a 24 1/2-point favorite. Marshall won the East with a 4-1 conference mark. Marshall has played in two previous C-USA title games, losing to Rice (there's that team again!) in 2013 but winning the following season against La Tech. Marshall is favored by points 4 1/2-points.With the cancelation of the ULL/Coastal Carolina game, that leaves SIX conference championship games on tap for Saturday, including FOUR of the Power-5 conferences. In order of start times, it's 6-1 Northwestern vs 5-0 Ohio St in the Big Ten at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis and 7-2 Oklahoma vs 8-2 Iowa State in the Big 12 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, both kicking at 12 noon ET. In the ACC it's 9-1 Clemson and 10-0 Notre Dame set for 4:00 ET at Bank of America stadium in Charlotte and the SEC title game will feature 10-0 Alabama vs 8-2 Florida at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (8:00 ET). Wrapping up, 5-1 Boise State (-6.5) and 6-0 San Jose St meet at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas for the MWC title (4:15 ET) and note that Boise St has won all 14 lifetime meetings with San Jose St.  6-1 Tulsa will play 8-0 Cincinnati (-14.5) on its home field (Nippert Stadium, where the Bearcats have won 19 straight) at 8:00 ET for the ACC title.Power 5 championship games: The Buckeyes have had THREE of their last five games postponed due to COVID-19 issues but got a waiver to play in the championship game since it did not meet the original minimum six-game requirement to be eligible. Ohio State (No. 3 AP and No. 4 CFP) is playing for its FOURTH straight Big Ten title win and a "W" on Saturday would surely 'lock them into' a 'Final Four' spot. Ohio St is favored by 20 points. Speaking of streaks, Oklahoma has won FIVE consecutive Big 12 championships and will be eager for some revenge from its 37-30 loss at Iowa St back on Oct 3. The Cyclones are in their first-ever Big 12 title game and haven't won a football conference title since 1912, playing in the MVC. Iowa St has never won a conference title outright, having tied Nebraska back in 1912. The Sooners are favored by six points. In the ACC, No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson (CFP rankings) square off in a much-anticipated rematch of Notre Dame's 47-40 double overtime win which was played back on Nov 7 in South Bend. It's hard to imagine BOTH schools won't make the 'Final Four' if Clemson wins but if Notre Dame wins, will Clemson be left out? Clemson is bidding for not only its SIXTH consecutive ACC title but also its SIXTH straight trip to the CFP as well. The Tigers are favored by 10 1/2-points. No. 1 Alabama (AP and CFP) is trying to secure a return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last season for the first time since the four-team postseason format began in 2014. The Crimson Tide may qualify even with a loss, since no other team in the SEC has fewer than two defeats. Florida likely squandered its chance to get into the playoff with a stunning setback to LSU last weekend, but the Gators are still in position to claim their first SEC title since 2008. This will be the 10th time the teams have met in the SEC championship game, with Alabama holding a 5-4 edge. However, the Crimson Tide have won the last SIX meetings against the Gators and Florida coach Dan Mullen is 0-9 in his career against Alabama's Nick Saban. Alabama is favored by 17 points.The final CFP rankings will be released Sunday at 12 noon ET and I will cover the 'fallout' in Monday's Notes.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Friday Night Football: USC/Oregon Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

Oregon plays at USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Fox at 8 PM ET in a game put together on Monday of this week after Washington had to pull out of the game due to their continued COVID outbreak.Oregon had planned to play the Huskies last weekend in what would have been the de-facto play-in game to represent the Pac-12 North Division in this contest. When that game got canceled because of Washington's COVID issues, the Ducks thought they had missed their chance to play for the conference championship. Oregon opened their season with three straight victories against Stanford, Washington State, and UCLA. But the Ducks have stumbled with two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California on December 5th by a 21-17 score. Turnovers have made the difference in both games as Oregon turned the ball over five times in those two games without a takeaway. After ranking fifth in the nation last year with a +16 net turnover margin, the Ducks are tied for 123rd in the country this season with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Tyler Shough leads an Oregon offense that scores 34.2 points-per-game while averaging 467.0 yards-per-game. Those numbers rank 27th and 21st in the FBS. Shough is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1389 yards with 11 touchdown passes and four interceptions. USC won the Pac-12 South Division by winning all five of their regular-season games. The Trojans rallied from a 28-10 deficit in the third quarter by outscoring UCLA by a 20-3 margin in the fourth quarter to eke out a 43-38 dramatic victory. Quarterback Kedon Slovis completed 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards with five touchdown passes and two interceptions in the win. The sophomore is completing 70.3% of his passes for 1601 yards with 15 touchdown passes and four interceptions. USC is scoring 35.2 points-per-game while averaging 428.4 yards-per-game, which ranks 23rd and 28th in the nation. After enduring a -10 net turnover margin last year, the Trojans have turned that around this season by averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game, tied for fourth-best in the nation. USC will be without their top running back tonight with Vavae Malepeai doubtful with a sprained knee. Malepeai rushed for 110 yards against UCLA last week.Both of these teams have been vulnerable on defense. The Trojans allow 25.0 points-per-game along with 396.6 yards-per-game, which rank 41st and 56th in the nation. The Ducks give up 28.0 points-per-game and 419.8 yards-per-game, which is 59th and 75th in the FBS.The Pac-12 Championship Game's initial site at a neutral field in Las Vegas changed because of COVID concerns. The Trojans host this game at their Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC ranks a distant 13th in the latest college football playoff rankings. Yet a victory against Oregon tonight to continue their unbeaten season might put the Trojans in play in the minds of the committee if chaos reigns in the Saturday games. BetAnySports lists USC as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 64.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

The Friday sports card features another afternoon and evening slate in college basketball and four college football games. The planned Purdue/Indiana game in college football got canceled because of COVID issues.The first of three conference championship games in college football kicks off at 7 PM ET in Conference USA. Marshall hosts the game with their 7-1 record. The Thundering Herd lost their first game of the season in their last game on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss at home to Rice as a 24.5-point favorite. Marshall might have been rusty playing for the first time in a month, given COVID cancellations. Redshirt freshman Grant Wells entered that game with 16 touchdown passes with only four interceptions, but he got picked off five times. UAB snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday in a 21-16 win at Rice as a 7-point favorite. The Blazers raised their record to a 5-3 mark with that victory. Head coach Bill Clark leads his team into their third straight appearance in the Conference USA championship game. Marshall is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The CBS Sports Network has the broadcast.The Mid-American Conference championship game is at 7:30 PM ET on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit. Ball State rallied from a 20-13 halftime deficit at home last week to upset Western Michigan by a 30-27 score as a 2.5-point underdog to earn their spot in this game. After losing at Miami (OH) in their opening game, the Cardinals have rattled off five straight victories. Buffalo remained unbeaten in their five games this season with their 56-7 victory over Akron as a 33-point favorite last Saturday. The Bulls lead the nation with a 51.8 points-per-game scoring average. Buffalo is a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 67.5. This game is on ESPN.Nebraska plays at Rutgers at 7:30 PM ET. The Cornhuskers are 6.5-point road favorites with a total of 54.The Pac-12 championship game takes place at 8 PM ET. Washington won the North Division but pulled out of the game early in the week due to their inability to field a team given COVID. Oregon takes their spot as the North Division representative with their 3-2 record. The Ducks have lost their last two games after being upset at California on December 5th as a 9-point favorite. USC rallied from a 21-10 halftime deficit at UCLA last Saturday night by outscoring the Bruins by a 20-3 margin in the fourth quarter to pull out a 43-38 victory. The Trojans are 5-0 on the season with an outside chance of making it into the college football playoff with a win and then plenty of help on Saturday. USC hosts this game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum as a 3-point favorite with a total of 63.5.The college basketball card tips off 3 PM ET with Gardner Webb hosting VMI as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5.Three games are on national television on Friday. At 5 PM ET, San Diego State hosts BYU in a Mountain West Conference clash on the CBS Sports Network. The Cougars raised their record to a 6-2 mark after an 82-64 win against Utah as a 1-point favorite. San Diego State remained unbeaten in their five games with their 80-68 upset win at Arizona State as a 2-point underdog. The Aztecs rank 18th in the nation in the Associated Press poll. San Diego State is a 7-point favorite with a total of 137.5.Davidson plays at Rhode Island at 7 PM ET on ESPNU. The Wildcats are 3-3 after getting upset against Charlotte on Tuesday by a 63-52 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Rhode Island has dropped to 3-4 on the season with their second straight loss on Sunday in a 65-58 loss at Western Kentucky as a 5.5-point underdog. The nightcap on ESPNU is at 9 PM ET, with West Virginia hosting Iowa State. The Mountaineers raised their record to a 6-1 mark on Sunday with their 87-71 win at home against Richmond. Iowa State has lost three straight games for a disappointing 1-3 start to the season after getting upset on Tuesday at home to Kansas State by a 74-65 score as a 7.5-point favorite. West Virginia is a 15.5-point favorite with the over/under at 146.

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2020 NCAA Basketball: An Early Look at Winning Trends

by Al McMordie

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

The 2020 College Basketball season is almost a month old, so it's a great time to take a look at the season's developing trends.There have been 735 games played with point spreads.  And unlike, say, the NFL, where the underdogs have shined, there has not been a difference in performance between the underdogs and the favorites.  Nor has there been a significant difference between home teams and road teams.Let's take a look at the early numbers.Favorites:  353-363-19 ATSUnderdogs:  363-353-19 ATSHome Teams:  301-286-14 ATSAway Teams:  286-301-14 ATSHome Favorites:  230-227-12 ATSAway Favorites: 59-71-2 ATSNeutral Court Favorites: 64-65-5 ATSHome Underdogs:  71-59-2 ATSAway Underdogs: 227-230-12 ATSNeutral Court Underdogs:  65-64-5 ATSOf course, the best handicappers go beneath the surface to analyze the best situations.  Here are some of the better situations that have delivered the $$$ so far in 2020.Teams off back-to-back losses vs. foes off a win:  64-43-3 ATS, including 35-19-1 ATS off 3+ lossesTeams off 3+ wins vs. foes off a loss:  26-36-2 ATSUnderdogs off back-to-back ATS wins:  22-44-1 ATS, including 10-31-1 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS winUnderdogs off back-to-back ATS losses:  58-40-5 ATS, including 50-29-4 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS lossRoad teams off upset wins:  27-11-1 ATS, including 16-2-1 ATS off a double-digit winTeams off back-to-back upset wins:  7-1 ATSTeams off back-to-back upset defeats:  6-4 ATSSame-season revenge:  17-9 ATSUnrested vs. rested:  26-14-3 ATSGood luck, as always....Al McMordie

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: Alabama/Florida Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

Alabama plays Florida for the SEC Championship on CBS at 8 PM ET. The neutral field site for this game is the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Alabama is the top-ranked team in the college football playoff rankings with a 10-0 record. They closed out their regular season schedule last Saturday with a 52-3 victory at Arkansas. The Crimson Tide is third in the nation by scoring 49.5 points-per-game, and their 537.7 yards-per-game average is fifth in the FBS. The 'Bama defense is holding their opponents to 16.8 points-per-game and 340.1 yards-per-game, ranking 11th and 27th in the country.Florida endured a tough-luck 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last week as a 24-point favorite. The Gators outgained the Tigers by a 609 to 418 margin. Yet the defending national champions scored on a 68-yard interception return for a touchdown and then later given a reprieve from a failed third-down conversion late in the game by a Florida personal foul stemming from one of their players throwing an LSU to celebrate the defensive stop. The ensuing 15-yard penalty kept the Tigers’ drive alive, which ended with a 57-yard field goal that decided the game.The Gators have an 8-2 record, with their second loss being by three points to Texas A&M. Florida’s signature victory was their 44-28 win against Georgia. They are 12th in the nation by scoring 41.2 points-per-game, and their 513.5 yards-per-game mark is eighth in the country. The Gators allow their opponents to score 26.3 points-per-game along with 384.7 yards-per-game. A subplot to this game is the battle between the Heisman Trophy contenders opposing at quarterback. Alabama’s Mac Jones is completing 76.4% of his passes for 3321 yards with 27 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Kyle Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for Florida for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.This game will have significant ramifications for the college football semifinals on January 1st. An Alabama victory ensures them a spot in the playoff and the likely top seed, which brackets them against the final fourth-seeded team. It remains possible that the playoff committee would still rank the Crimson Tide no lower than fourth even with a loss in this game, although with controversy. The Clemson-Notre Dame loser could be on the outside of the top-four, and the Tide has a 52-24 win over Texas A&M that currently ranks fifth. Florida ranks seventh, but their two losses likely mean finishing in the top-four even with an upset victory would be a bridge too far. Yet an Ohio State loss in the Big Ten championship game and an Aggies loss to Tennessee could make things interesting if the Gators win this game.The last time these two teams played was in the SEC championship game in 2016. The Crimson Tide won that game handily by a 54-16 score. Jim McElwain was the Gators coach that season. In his third season as the Florida head coach, Dan Mullen will be looking to stymie Nick Saban this time. Alabama is a 17-point favorite at BookMaker, with the total set at 74.5.

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NCAA Basketball: Kansas/Texas Tech Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 17, 2020

The Thursday night game on ESPN is a heavyweight Big 12 battle between Kansas and Texas Tech, who are ranked 5th and 14th in this week’s Associated Press poll.Kansas lost their opening game of the season against number-one ranked Gonzaga by a 102-90 score. The Jayhawks have since rattled off six straight victories, including signature non-conference wins against Kentucky and Creighton. Kansas last played on Friday when they hammered Nebraska-Omaha by a 95-50 score as a 29.5-point favorite. Bill Self was on track to leading his team to a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament last March before the COVID shutdown. That team finished with a 28-3 record, but the Jayhawks lost their top two players from that group in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. Kansas still has three starters back along with a few reserves that have been bolstered by another strong freshman class led by five-star prospect Bryce Thompson who takes over for Dotson at point guard. The defense was the hallmark of last year's team as they were ranked second in adjusted efficiency according to kenpom. The Jayhawks go into this game ranked sixth in the nation by kenpom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Redshirt freshman Jalen Wilson leads the team with a 15.3 points-per-game scoring average while adding 8.7 rebounds-per-game. Junior guard Ochai Agbaji is scoring 14.1 points-per-game average and making 45.9% of his shots from 3-point range.Texas Tech has won four games in a row with their 77-57 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Saturday. That win raised the Red Raiders’ record to a 6-1 mark, with their lone loss being a 64-53 setback against Houston. This group has quickly gelled into another typical Chris Beard team in his fifth year with the program as they lead the nation in kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.After losing in the national championship game two seasons ago, Beard’s team took a step back last year with an 18-13 record. The Red Raiders have more production returning this year than they did after their superb 2018-19 season, including two starters in Kyler Edwards and Terrance Shannon that appear ready for breakout seasons. Edwards leads the team with 25 assists while contributing 11.3 points-per-game. Shannon is scoring 11.8 points-per-game and pulling down 4.87 rebounds-per-game.Beard also brought in a top-ten recruiting class along with four transfers. Mac McClung from Georgetown leads the team with a 14.1 points-per-game scoring average. Marcus Santo-Silva, a graduate transfer forward from VCU, has added 8.1 points-per-game along with 7.6 rebounds-per-game. The Red Raiders' have not been tested this season outside their loss to the Cougars. Texas Tech's most competitive victory was a 51-44 triumph over Abilene Christian as a 15-point favorite. Kansas won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams, with their most recent encounter being on March 7th when the Jayhawks won by a 66-62 score as a 3-point favorite. BetAnySports lists Texas Tech as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 135. Tipoff is at 7 PM ET.

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