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Ness Notes: Monday, Dec 28

by Larry Ness

Monday, Dec 28, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."MNF: NFL Week 16 concludes with the 11-3 Buffalo Bills visiting the 6-8 NE Patriots on ESPN/ABC at 8:15 ET. Something just doesn't seem quite right about that headline, does it? The Buffalo Bills are led by the right arm (and both legs) of QB Josh Allen, He had four TDs (two passing, two rushing) in a 48-19 win in Denver in Week 15. The performance allowed Buffalo to capture its first AFC East title since 1995 and land Allen his fourth AFC Offensive Player of the Week honor of the season. As for the Pats, who have essentially 'owned' the division since Bill Belichick brought his hoodie to their sideline, they are 'led' by former MVP Cam Newton, who may have 11 rushing TDs (Allen has eight) but has thrown just five TDs passes (Allen has 30) and 10 INTs, for a QB rating of 79.6 (Allen's is 104.2). Note that in the Week 8 meeting between these two teams (in Buffalo), the Pats were just a four-point underdog, losing 24-21 but winning ATS. However, in tonight's game at home in Foxboro, the Past are a seven-point home dog (over/under is 47). I'm taking a 'pass' off a 4-1 NFL Sunday which included a Game of the Year win on Pittsburgh (NEVER in doubt, right?). As I've talked about all season, this has been a 'crazy' NFL season. I'll recap Week 16 in Tuesday's Notes and will again feature a special Saturday edition of Ness Notes to preview Week 17 (all games will be played on Sunday, Jan 3).NBA: The 2020-21 NBA season opened after the shortest offseason in league history on Dec 22. The Clippers beat their Staples Center co-tenants 116-109 on Tuesday, 'spoiling' the Lakers' ring ceremony. The Clipps then avenged last season's 3-1 playoff collapse to the Nuggets with a resounding 121-108 win on Friday. However, the Clippers returned on Sunday for their home-opener against the 0-2 Mavericks and promptly got BLOWN-OUT, 124-73! You read that right. The Clippers trailed 77-27 at halftime, with their 50-point deficit being the largest at the break in the shot-clock era, which began in 1954-55. Nice to know the NBA is still the NBA we've always known. The Cavs, Magic and Pacers have all opened 3-0 in the East, while the Thunder are 1-0 in the West. Here's an idea. Why not realize that OKC is simply the West's "best team" and NOT make them play anymore games, while making them the West's No. 1 seed for the postseason. I'm pretty sure Ohio State football fans understand that logic! Unfortunately for the Thunder, the NBA didn't 'buy' my suggestion, as OKC will host the Utah Jazz tonight, as part of a five-game NBA card (no TV games). The linemakers also seem confused as to OKC's 'greatness,' as the Jazz are favored by 8 1/2-points on the road.CBB: It was a reasonably quiet Friday through Sunday in college hoops. There were two top-25 matchups, with No. 9 Wisconsin winning at No. 12 Michigan St on Friday and Gonzaga leaving little doubt about its No. 1 ranking with a 98-75 rout of No. 16 Virginia in Fort Worth, Tx on Saturday. Wisconsin's win was NO small deal as the Badgers had dropped 12 straight in East Lansing, with their last victory at Breslin Center coming back in 2004. Higher ranked teams are now 15-7 SU but just 11-11 ATS against lower-ranked teams. The last three days saw five games between ranked and unranked opponents, with ranked teams going 3-2 SU and ATS. No. 4 Iowa was upset in OT at Minnesota on Friday and No. 23 Ohio St lost at Northwestern on Saturday. Ranked teams are currently 119-19 (.862) SU but a more modest 74-62-2 (54.4%) ATS vs unranked opponents Y-T-D. The new AP poll will be released this afternoon but according to current rankings, Monday's CBB features No. 1 Gonzaga (-39.5) at home to Northern Arizona, No. 9 Wisconsin (-9) home to Maryland and No. 12 Michigan St (-2.5) at Minnesota. Gonzaga will obviously remain at No. 1 but Wisconsin should move up from No. 9. NO way Michigan St doesn't fall in the rankings (out of the top-25?) and I can't imagine Minnesota NOT moving into the poll for the first time this season. The new poll will be part of Tuesday's Notes.However, the focus of Tuesday's Notes will be the resumption of the bowl season (no games Sunday or Monday) and my NFL Week 16 recap.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NFL, EPL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 28, 2020

The Monday sports card concludes Week 16 in the NFL, along with games in the NBA and college basketball and the start of Matchweek 16 in the English Premier League.The festive fixture schedule continues with three matches to kick off Matchweek 16 in the English Premier League. Leicester City visits Crystal Palace at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network. The Foxes settled for a 2-2 draw with Manchester United on Saturday to keep them in third place in the EPL table with 28 points. The Eagles are in 13th place in the standings after their 3-0 Saturday loss at Aston Villa. Leicester City is a -0.5 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Chelsea hosts Aston Villa on the NBC Sports Network at 12:30 PM ET. The Blues fell to seventh place with 25 points after their 3-1 loss at Arsenal on Saturday. The Villans are also in seventh place after their 3-0 win against Crystal Palace. Chelsea is a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.Manchester City visits Everton at 3 PM ET. The Cityzens jumped to fifth place with 26 points in the table with their 2-0 victory over Newcastle United on Saturday. Everton has won four matches in a row to put them in second place after they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 1-0 score. Man City is a -1 goal line favorite with the total at 3. This game is on the NBC Peacock app.Sixteen games are on the college basketball betting card starting at 1 PM ET. The lone nationally-televised contest is at 7 PM ET with Illinois State playing at Loyola-Chicago. Five games are on the NBA docket starting at 7:30 PM ET. None of these games are on national television. Monday Night Football on ESPN presents a passing of the guards for AFC East primacy. Buffalo clinched the AFC East title for the first time since 1995 with their 48-19 win Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. The Bills have secured hosting the wildcard round of the AFC playoffs. With their 22-12 loss to Miami last week, New England is eliminated from the playoffs. Cam Newton completed 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards with 38 rushing yards. Newton has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 2381 yards with five touchdown passes but ten interceptions. He has added 489 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns on the ground. Belichick has been coy about who he will tap for his starting quarterback in this game, with Newton possibly not returning to the team next season. Backup Jarett Stidham may get an opportunity to audition for the job next season. The former Auburn quarterback has completed 18 of 33 passes this season for a 54.5% completion percentage for 212 yards with two touchdown passes and three interceptions. Buffalo is a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 46. Kickoff is shortly after 8:15 PM ET.

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The Early Bird Gets The Worm

by Ben Burns

Monday, Dec 28, 2020

Regardless of sport, it's much easier to have a profitable season, if one gets off to a winning start. It's also much easier to get off to a winning start if one is properly prepared. Over the years, I've become known for my "fast starts." Currently, I'm off to a quick start with my basketball selections. I attribute much of my success to my offseason preparation. While each sport allows for a different type of study, by the time the season begins, I want to have devoured as much information as I possibly can. On that note, I'll point out that NHL returns on January 13th. I know it seems like last season just ended (Tampa hoisted the Cup on Sept. 28th.) but the league hopes to get back to its normal schedule, in time for next year. This condensed 56-game schedule allows them to do so. Due to travel restrictions, the divisions have been realigned. We've now got the North, West, Central, and East. The North is an "All Canadian" division, featuring the seven Canadian teams. The 24 American teams are divided equally among the other three. As I write this, on December 28th, the Avs are favored to win the Cup. While I'm not advising making any future bets, I do find it helpful to know what each team's expectations are. Current future odds, for the "top 10" teams, courtesy of Pinnacle, are listed below. Remember, you've got roughly two weeks to prepare for the upcoming season. When they drop the puck, make sure you're ready to go. Good luck and an early Happy New Year!ODDS TO WIN THE CUPColorado +536Tampa +743Vegas +753Toronto +1254Boston +1292Edmonton +1531Philadelphia +1873Washington +1988Pittsburgh +2104Dallas +2104

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NFL Monday Night Football: Bills/Patriots Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 28, 2020

Monday Night Football on ESPN presents a passing of the guards for AFC East primacy. Buffalo clinched the AFC East title for the first time since 1995 with their 48-19 win Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. The Bills have secured hosting the wildcard round of the AFC playoffs. They remain in control of their destiny to claim the second seed in the AFC playoffs if they win their remaining two games. The Steelers are a half-game ahead of the Bills after their victory over Indianapolis on Sunday. Yet Buffalo controls the first tie-breaker due to their 26-15 win over Pittsburgh on December 13th. Holding the second seed not only reserves the right to host the playoff game in the AFC divisional playoff round, but Buffalo would also host the AFC Championship Game if top-seed Kansas City got upset in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Bills make a case of being the best team in the NFL given their performance since Week 7. Buffalo has won seven of their last eight games while averaging 31.4 points-per-game and 399.9 yards-per-game. They have outgained their opponents by +79 net points during this run. All those numbers are the second-best in the NFL over that span. Josh Allen completed 28 of 40 passes against the Broncos last week for 359 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He added 33 yards with another two touchdowns on the ground. Allen will look to add on to his 4000 passing yards in this breakout season. He is completing 68.7% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. He has added 383 rushing yards on the ground with eight touchdowns.New England will not be AFC East champions for just the second time in the last 17 seasons. This game does offer this proud franchise the rare opportunity to play the role of the spoiler. The Patriots lost the first meeting between these two teams on November 1st by a 24-21 score as a 4-point underdog in Buffalo. It has been nineteen seasons since a  divisional opponent swept New England. The Patriots have not endured a losing season since 2000, which was Bill Belichick’s first year as a professional head coach. With their 22-12 loss to Miami last week, New England is eliminated from the playoffs. Cam Newton completed 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards with 38 rushing yards. Newton has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 2381 yards with five touchdown passes but ten interceptions. He has added 489 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns on the ground. Belichick has been coy about who he will tap for his starting quarterback in this game, with Newton possibly not returning to the team next season. Backup Jarett Stidham may get an opportunity to audition for the job next season. The former Auburn quarterback has completed 18 of 33 passes this season for a 54.5% completion percentage for 212 yards with two touchdown passes and three interceptions. The Patriots added cornerback Stephon Gilmour to their Injured Reserve list this week with his quad injury. He is the seventh player either out for the season or on their Injured Reserve list. Tight end Jordan Thomas joined defensive tackle Isaiah Mack on their COVID list. Belichick has 21 players listed as questionable, including running back Damien Harris.Buffalo tight end Reggie Gilliam is out with his knee and hamstring injuries. The Bills have two players on Injured Reserve. Offensive tackle Ty Nsekhe and safety Jaquan Johnson are questionable with injuries. BetAnySports lists Buffalo as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 46. Kickoff is shortly after 8:15 PM ET.

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Packers/Titans Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 27, 2020

Sunday Night Football on NBC features Tennessee and Green Bay in a non-conference battle between teams with Super Bowl aspirations. Lambeau Field will showcase two of the top candidates for league Most Valuable Player in Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers.Tennessee clinches their spot in the playoffs with a victory in this game. The Titans also ensure a spot in the playoffs if Baltimore loses to the New York Giants in the afternoon. They go into Sunday tied with Indianapolis with a 10-4 record. If the Colts lose to Pittsburgh in the afternoon, then a Tennessee victory clinches them the AFC South title. The Titans also have playoff seeding on their minds being one game behind Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Winning the AFC South ensures hosting the first round of the playoffs for Tennessee, while the second seed in the AFC would offer them a potential second home game in the divisional round. The Titans won their fourth game in their last five with their 46-25 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran the ball 24 times for 147 yards in the win. Henry is heating up late in the season with 362 rushing yards in his last two games. He has rushed for 1679 yards this season with 15 touchdowns. He will make his case for league MVP tonight by tying Barry Sanders with ten straight games on the road with at least 100 rushing yards. Ryan Tannehill completed 21 of 27 passes for 273 yards with three touchdown passes. He is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3482 yards with 31 touchdown passes and just five interceptions this season. The one-two punch of Henry and Tannehill lead an offense that is number one in the NFL by scoring 31.1 points-per-game.Green Bay clinched the NFC North title with their 24-16 win over Carolina last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. A Packers’ victory tonight combined with a Seattle loss or tie with the Los Angeles Rams clinches the top seed in the NFC. New Orleans moved just a half-game behind Green Bay’s 11-3 record with their eleventh win of the season on Friday against Minnesota. The Packers own the tie-breaker against the Saints, given their 37-30 victory in New Orleans in late September. Rodgers completed 20 of 29 passes against the Panthers last week but for only 143 yards. He threw a touchdown pass and added another touchdown on the ground. He can make his case for league MVP by improving his 69.6% completion percentage this season, which has accounted for 3828 yards. Rodgers has thrown 40 touchdown passes with only four picks. Green Bay removed 17 players from their final Injury List this week. The Packers have two players out: safety Will Redmond and tight end Jace Steinberger. Running back Jamaal Williams and guard Simon Stepaniak are doubtful. Eight players are either out the season or on Injured Reserve, including defensive end Montravious Adams. Tennessee moved 12 players from their final Injury List. Outside linebacker Derick Roberson is out with a hamstring. Eight players are on Injured Reserve or out the season, including left tackle Taylor Lewan and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. BookMaker lists Green Bay as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 54. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NCAA Basketball and EPL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 27, 2020

The Sunday sports card continues Week 16 in the NFL along with games in the NBA and college basketball along with the conclusion of Matchweek 15 in the English Premier League.Eleven games are on the National Football League schedule. Six games take place at 1 PM ET window of opening games. The national broadcast on Fox has Kansas City hosting Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 53 (all odds from BetOnline). The primary game on CBS has Pittsburgh playing at home against Indianapolis as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 43.Another four games take place in the 4:05 PM to 4:25 PM ET window. The national game on Fox at 4:25 PM ET is an NFC West showdown between the Lo Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. This game is a pick ‘em with the total at 47.5.Sunday Night Football on NBC features Tennessee and Green Bay in a non-conference battle between teams with Super Bowl aspirations. Lambeau Field will showcase two of the top candidates for league Most Valuable Player in Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers.The Titans won their fourth game in their last five with their 46-25 victory against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran the ball 24 times for 147 yards in the win. Henry is heating up late in the season with 362 rushing yards in his last two games. He has rushed for 1679 yards this season with 15 touchdowns. He will make his case for league MVP tonight by tying Barry Sanders with ten straight games on the road with at least 100 rushing yards. Green Bay clinched the NFC North title with their 24-16 win over Carolina last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. A Packers’ victory tonight combined with a Seattle loss or tie with the Los Angeles Rams clinches the top seed in the NFC. New Orleans moved just a half-game behind Green Bay’s 11-3 record with their eleventh win of the season on Friday against Minnesota. The Packers own the tie-breaker against the Saints, given their 37-30 victory in New Orleans in late September.Green Bay is a 3-point favorite with the total set at 54. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.The NBA has ten games scheduled for Sunday starting at 3:35 PM ET with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are 5-point favorites with a total of 230. The card concludes at 10:35 PM ET with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. None of the games on Sunday are on national television.There is one nationally-televised game in college basketball. At 4:30 PM ET, Providence hosts DePaul on FS1. The Friars are 6.5-point favorites with an over/under of 144.The final four matches in Matchweek 15 of the English Premier League start at 7 AM ET. Leeds United hosts Burnley as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total at 3 on the NBC Peacock app. At 9:15 AM ET, West Ham United plays at home against Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5 on the NBC Sports Network. Liverpool plays at home at Anfield against West Brom Albion on the NBC Sports Network as a -2.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. The NBC Sports Network EPL triple-header concludes at 2:15 PM ET with Tottenham playing at Wolverhampton as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.25.

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Ness Notes: Saturday, Dec 26

by Larry Ness

Saturday, Dec 26, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."This is a special Saturday edition, featuring the college bowls and NFL Week 162020-21 Bowl season: We finally saw a bowl game in which the winner hadn't already been determined by the end of the third quarter in Friday's Camellia Bowl (note: It was the first NCAA bowl game played on Christmas Day since 2003). There was no scoring in the first quarter but Buffalo took a 10-0 lead in the second, before Marshall rallied to tie it at 10-all midway through the third quarter. However, neither team scored again until Buffalo put together a 13-play, 88-yard drive that ended with a Kevin Marks two-yard TD run with 1:09 left. Marks was subbing for the national leader in rushing yards per game, Jaret Patterson, and ran for 138 yards on 35 carries. Marshall was able to reach the Buffalo 20 with no timeouts but the drive was halted by back-to-back sacks on third and fourth down. Marshall opened 7-0 and was ranked as high as 15th in the AP poll but ended the season on a THREE-game losing streak. Favorites are now 5-2 SU & ATS to open the bowl season. The first three bowl games averaged 73.7 PPG but the UCF/BYU total closed at 79 1/2, so the overs were 2-1, not an expected 3-0. However, the last four bowl games have averaged just 36.3 PPG, with all going under. That makes it two overs and FIVE unders heading into Saturday's tripleheader.Saturday bowls: The only ranked team (I use the AP poll, not the CFP rankings) to have played so far was No. 13 BYU, which routed UCF 49-23 in the Boca Raton Bowl. However, two ranked teams will take the field (both from the Sun Belt), as No. 16 ULL (9-1) takes on 7-4 UTSA in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas at 3:30 ET on ABC. Tonight at 7:30 ET on ESPN, it's No. 9 Coastal Carolina (11-0) taking on 9-1 Liberty in the Cure Bowl. Saturday's third bowl is 5-6 Western Kentucky playing 5-4 Georgia St in the LendingTree Bowl from Mobile, Al at 3:30 ET on ESPN. Georgia St is favored by 3 1/2-points and the over/under is 49 1/2. Let me comment on the two bowls featuring ranked opponents.ULL didn't get a chance to play for the SBC championship because of COVID issues in the Coast Carolina program. ULL opened the season with a 31-14 road victory against current No. 12 Iowa State and have the best 10-game record in school history. The Ragin' Cajuns have won the Sun Belt West division and played in a bowl game in each of head coach Billy Napier's three seasons. That success led to Napier being a candidate for coaching vacancies at South Carolina and Auburn, but ULL announced this week that Napier is staying put. ULL will face the UTSA Roadrunners, who are 7-4 in coach Jeff Traylor's first season. A victory over the Cajuns would be the first bowl victory for a school that is making just its second appearance in a bowl and it would tie the school-record for wins in a season. UTSA was originally scheduled to play SMU in the Frisco Bowl but that Dec 19 game was canceled due to COVID issues in the SMU program. The First Responder Bowl stepped in and invited the Roadrunners, who gladly accepted but had to wait five days to learn that ULL would be their opponent. and so it goes in the "Year of COVID." ULL is favored by 14 points and the over/under is 55 .The Liberty Flames have posted their best regular season in school history (9-1) and look to finish with a second consecutive bowl win against Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have made history this year as well, completing the first unbeaten regular season in school and SBC history (8-0). These two both played in the Big South Conference (FCS) and have split their 14 meetings. The teams were scheduled to play on Dec 5 but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols and precautions in the Flames' program. The Flames beat Georgia Southern in last year's Cure Bowl and were the third FBS team to win a bowl in their first season at the top level. As for Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers will make their first bowl appearance in school history. Liberty is 8-2 ATS on the season and enters on a SEVEN-game ATS winning streak, while Coastal Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS. It was Liberty with the COVID-related problems that caused the Dec 5 to be canceled and the Flames haven't played since a 45-0 shutout of UMass on Nov 27. However, it was Coastal with the COVID issue which canceled its SBC championship game vs ULL on Dec 19, less than 48 hours before the scheduled kickoff. A good old rivalry matchup from Big South days. Coastal is favored by seven points and the over/under is 59 1/2. Bowl season resumes Tuesday, after a two-day break.NFL Week 16: The New Orleans Saints and their RB Alvin Kamara had quite a Christmas Day on Friday. The Saints clinched their FOURTH straight NFC South title with a 52-33 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, who fell to 6-9 and saw their longshot wild card hopes vanish. The Saints are now 11-4 and while the 11-3 Packers do own the tiebreaker over the Saints, New Orleans is still 'alive' in the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed. RB Alvin Kamara ran for 246 yards in the game but that was secondary to him getting SIX rushing TDs, tying him with Ernie Nevers of the Chicago Cardinals in 1929 for the most in NFL history. He is only the FOURTH player to score six TDs of any kind in a game, joining Nevers, Dub Jones (1951) and Gale Sayers (1965). Kamara's 21 TDs this season are the most in a single season by any player in Saints history plus he now has 59 TDs in his career, the third most by a player in his first four seasons in the NFL, trailing only Hall of Famers Terrell Davis (61) and LaDainian Tomlinson (60), according to ESPN Stats and Information research.Week 16 continues with three Saturday games, the 9-5 Bucs at the 5-9 Lions, the 5-9 49ers at the 8-6 Cardinals and the 9-5 Dolphins at the 7-7 Raiders. The Lions and 49ers are already eliminated from postseason consideration but the other four teams are fighting for playoff position, or in the case of the Raiders, for their postseason season 'lives!' Six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady and the Bucs are a victory away from earning a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay is favored by 10 points and the over/under is 54 1/2. Arizona (8-6) is trying for its fifth season sweep in the past six years over San Francisco (5-9), which lost to the Cardinals 24-20 in Week 1 and has lost six of its last seven games overall. The Cardinals are currently in the No. 7 and final spot in the NFC playoff race. They can clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose or tie against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday (note: Jags have lost 13 in a row). The Cards are favored by 5 1/2-points and the over/under is 48 1/2. The Dolphins can clinch an AFC wild-card berth if they win their final two games but the Dolphins are already assured of a winning season for just the second time since 2008. As for the Raiders, they have lost four of five following a 6-3 start and will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Ravens win. Miami is favored by 2 1/2-points and the over/under is 49. History buffs will be interested in the fact the Dolphins and Raiders last met in the playoffs following the 2000 season!Moving on to Sunday, I'll begin at the bottom (as always), then move to the top. The Jets ended a franchise-record 13-game losing streak with their 23-20 Week 15 win over the Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars now own the NFL's longest active winning streak at 13. The Jags beat the Colts 27-20 in Week 1 but 13 straight losses have followed. They host the playoff-hopeful 7-7 Bears on Sunday, in what could be described as a "must-win game" for Chicago's playoff chances but also a "must-lose" for Jacksonville, who are now in position to get the No. 1 pick of the 20121 Draft (presumably, Clemson's Trevor Lawrence). The Bears are favored by 7 1/2-points and the over/under is 47.'Jumping' to the 'top of the class,' the defending champion KC Chiefs are 13-1 and seem like a lock' to clinch the AFC's No. 1 when they host the 4-10 Falcons. KC has won NINE in a row but tends to play everyone down to the wire. They're the FIRST team in NFL history to win six straight one-score games, blowing big leads in some of them, rallying in others and going toe-to-toe in the rest. The Chiefs are just 7-7 ATS on the season and are favored by 10 1/2-points and the over/under is 53 1/2. Over in the NFC, 11-3 Green Bay has already clinched the NFC North title and can guarantee itself the NFC's No. 1 seed if it beats the 10-4 Titans and the LA Rams beat or tie 10-4 Seattle. However, Tennessee has plenty at stake as well, as the Titans can clinch a second straight AFC playoff berth with a victory. Tennessee also can earn a spot in the postseason with a loss by either Baltimore or Miami. The Titans can clinch their first AFC South title since 2008 if Indianapolis loses to Pittsburgh earlier Sunday and they beat Green Bay. The Tennessee/Green Bay is NBC's SNF contest at 8:20 ET. Green Bay is favored by 3 1/2-points and the over/under is 54 1/2. Week 16 is jam-packed with plenty of other great matchups, with teams vying for playoff spots and positioning. I think it best to just recap the happenings in Tuesday's Notes, when all the 'dust has settled,'By the way, I am serving up my ONE & ONLY 10* NFL Game of the Year on Sunday.Good luck...Larry

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NFL Saturday Night Football: Dolphins/Raiders Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 26, 2020

The Saturday triple-header in the NFL concludes with Miami playing in Las Vegas at 8:15 PM ET on the NFL Network in a game with playoff implications for both teams.Miami controls its fate to make the playoffs with their current 9-5 record. The Dolphins are tied with Baltimore for the seventh and final spot in the AFC playoff race but own the tie-breaker against the Ravens with a better conference record. They won for the third time in their last four games with their 22-12 win at home against New England last week. Despite being without running back Myles Gaskin, wide receiver DeVante Parker, and tight end Mike Gesicki, Miami generated 383 yards of offense against the Patriots. Undrafted rookie running back Salvon Ahmed from Washington became the first Dolphins rusher to gain at least 100 yards in 32 games with his 122-yard effort. The offense was missing their top-five receivers in terms of catches as well, but rookie Lynn Bowden has stepped up with 17 receptions from his 20 targets over the last three games for 160 yards. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes for 145 yards with an interception in the victory. In his eight games, including seven starts, he has completed 63.8% of his passes for 1359 yards with nine touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he is only averaging 6.47 yards-per-attempt. The Dolphins lead the NFL by allowing 18.4 points-per-game. Their 26 takeaways are tops in the league, and they have generated nine turnovers in their last four games. But their victories against Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams are their only two wins this season against teams that have a winning record going into Week 16. Las Vegas has lost four of their last five games to spoil their 6-2 start to the season. The Raiders are technically still alive to make the playoffs, but they must win their final two games and get some help from the Dolphins and Ravens losing their remaining games. Las Vegas comes off a crushing 30-27 loss at home in overtime to the Los Angeles Chargers Thursday. Backup quarterback Marcus Mariota played in relief for an injured Derek Carr to complete 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The former Titans’ quarterback added another 88 yards with a touchdown with his legs. Head coach Jon Gruden has been mum on who his starting quarterback will be in this game. Carr’s groin injury has improved this week, and he is clear to play. He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 3396 yards with 24 touchdown passes. But five of his seven interceptions have taken place in his last five games. Besides these turnovers, the Raiders’ defense has let them down during their current slide. They have allowed their last five opponents to average 36.0 points-per-game. Las Vegas has only five sacks during that span. Their lone win in these previous five games was against the 1-13 New York Jets in a triumph aided by the all-out blitz from Gregg Williams on their final-play touchdown pass that got the defensive coordinator fired the next day.The Raiders will be without defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who is out with an injury. Linebacker Nicholas Morrow was added to their COVID list to join linebacker Nick Kwiatoski. Defensive tackle Maurice Hurst is questionable with a calf injury.Miami activated running back Myles Gaskin this week from their COVID list. Guard Solomon Kindley is out with his knee and foot issues. The Dolphins have five players listed as questionable: guard Ereck Flowers; tight end Mike Gesicki; wide receiver Jakeem Grant; defensive end Shaq Lawson; wide receiver DeVante Parker.BetAnySports lists the Dolphins as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 47.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NBA, NFL, EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 26, 2020

The Saturday sports card offers a busy slate, including a triple-header in the NFL and college football, and games in the NBA, college basketball, and the English Premier League. The NFL kicks off at 1 PM ET with Tampa Bay visiting Detroit. The Buccaneers have won two straight games to raise their record to a 9-5 mark with their 31-27 win at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite last week. The Lions have lost four of their last five games to fall to a 5-9 record this season after their 46-25 loss at Tennessee. Given COVID protocols requiring many of their coaches to be in quarantine, Detroit will rely on interim coaches who have never called NFL plays on offense and defense before today. Tampa Bay is a 10-point favorite with the total set at 54 (all odds from BetOnline). The game is on the NFL Network.Arizona hosts San Francisco at 4:30 PM ET. The Cardinals have won two games in a row to improve their record to an 8-6 mark after their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. The 49ers fell to 5-9 last Sunday when they suffered their third straight upset loss at Dallas by a 41-33 score as a 4-point favorite. Arizona is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Amazon Prime has the broadcast.The nightcap has Miami visiting Las Vegas for an 8:15 PM ET kickoff. The Dolphins have won three of their last four games to improve to a 9-5 record with their 22-12 win against New England last week. Las Vegas has lost four of their last five games to fall to a 7-7 record on Thursday, December 17th in their 30-27 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers. Miami is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 48. The NFL Network has the broadcast. The first two college football bowl games are at 3:30 PM ET. Western Kentucky plays Georgia State in the LendingTree Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. The Hilltoppers are 5-6 after winning their final three regular-season games, culminating in a 37-19 victory at Charlotte on December 6th. The Panthers have won three of their last four games to earn their 5-4 record after their 30-24 win against Georgia Southern. Georgia State is a 3.5-point favorite with the over/under at 50. The game is on ESPN.Louisiana-Lafayette plays the University of Texas-San Antonio in the First Responder Bowl at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Ragin’ Cajuns earned a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game against Coastal Carolina before that game got canceled because of COVID issues. Louisiana last played on December 4th when they won at Appalachian State by a 24-21 as a 3.5-point underdog to raise their record to 9-1. UTSA is 7-4 after their 49-17 win against North Texas on November 28th as a 1.5-point favorite. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a 13.5-point favorite, with the total at 55.5. This game is on ABC.Liberty plays Coastal Carolina at 7:30 PM ET in the Cure Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The Flames improved their record to an 8-1 mark after they shutout UMass on November 27th by a 45-0 score. The Chanticleers last played on December 12th when they won at Troy by a 42-28 score to keep their perfect 11-0 record. Their showdown with Louisiana the next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship got canceled. Coastal Carolina is a 7-point favorite with the over/under at 59.5.A light Saturday college basketball schedule has three nationally-televised games. At 1 PM ET, Louisville hosts Kentucky on ESPN. The Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 134. Houston visits Central Florida at 2 PM ET on ESPN2. The Cougars are ranked sixth in the nation by the Associated Press. They are 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 136.The marquee matchup in college basketball is on CBS at 4 PM ET, featuring two top-20 teams. Gonzaga is the number one team in the nation, while Virginia ranks 16th. These two teams will play on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. The Bulldogs are 9-point favorites, with the total at 140.The NBA has ten games scheduled for Saturday starting at 5 PM ET. No games are on national television.Matchweek 15 in the English Premier League starts on Saturday with six matches. Four of these matches are on national television. At 7:30 AM ET, Manchester United visits Leicester City on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the over/under at 2.75. Aston Villa hosts Crystal Palace at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.75. NBC has Chelsea playing at Arsenal at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. At 3 PM ET, Manchester City plays at home at the Etihad Stadium against Newcastle United on the NBC Sports Network as a -2.25 goal line favorite with the total at 3.25.

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Ness Notes: Friday, Dec 25

by Larry Ness

Friday, Dec 25, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."2020-21 Bowl season: The "no drama" bowl season continued on Thursday in the New Mexico Bowl, which was moved from Albuquerque to Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, due to COVID-19 restrictions in New Mexico. Hawaii turned a pair of first-quarter interceptions into TDs and took a 21-0 lead at the half. QB Chevan Cordeiro's had three first-half TD passes, one set up by his 52-yard run. RB Calvin Turner Jr. caught a 75-yard TD pass and when Houston had closed to 21-14, returned a kickoff 92 yards for a TD  "All the money" came in on Hawaii (Houston closed as a 7-point favorite, after opening as a 12-point choice) and it was 'right.' The final score was 28-14 (no scoring in the 4th quarter). Favorites are now 4-2 SU & ATS to open the bowl season. The first three bowl games averaged 73.7 PPG but the UCF/BYU total closed at 79 1/2, so the overs were 2-1, not an expected 3-0. However, Wednesday's two bowl games combined for just 76 points, as both stayed under and Thursday's final score of 42 was well below the closing total of 60. Two overs and four unders, so far. Friday's bowl game was previewed in Thursday Notes, if interested. The current line has Buffalo up to 5 or 5 1/2-point favorites (over/under is 54 1/2).It's a Christmas Day NFL game (4:30 ET on FOX/NFL Network) between the 6-8 Vikings and the 10-4 Saints in New Orleans. The Saints have lost two in a row (following a NINE-game winning streak) and are now ONE game behind 11-3 Green Bay. The Saints are tied with the 10-4 Seahawks but own the tiebreaker, currently allowing them to hold on to the No. 2 seed. The 6-8 Vikings are not officially eliminated from postseason play just yet but the team's playoff hopes are clearly on 'life support.' New Orleans is favored  by seven points and the over/under is 51. Saturday's bowls will be covered in a "special" Saturday edition of Ness Notes, along with a preview of Saturday and Sunday's NFL Week 16 gamesCBB: The NBA has 'owned' Christmas Day in recent years but the Big Ten has decided in this 'Year of COVID' to 'crash the party.' In fact, COVID sparked the move. Typically, the NCAA upholds a rule requiring three days off around Christmas but the organization waived the regulation as various teams remain on campus amid the COVID-19 pandemic. So, Big Ten hoops will play FOUR Christmas games that feature four ranked teams. The first game features a top-25 showdown between No. 9  Wisconsin (7-1) and No. 12 Michigan St (6-1) at East Lansing at 12:30 ET. The lone game without a ranked opponent in this Christmas 'grand slam' is 5-2 Maryland visiting West Lafayette to take on 6-3 Purdue. No. 19 Michigan (6-0) travels to Lincoln to play 4-4 Nebraska at 6:00 ET and No. 4 Iowa (7-1) visits Williams Arena in Minneapolis to take on 7-1 Minnesota. Wisconsin opened a small road favorite but early movement has Michigan as a two-point choice. Higher ranked teams are 13-7 SU but just 9-11 ATS against lower-ranked teams. In the two games featuring ranked teams vs unranked opponents, Michigan is an eight-point favorite at Nebraska and Iowa a 6 1/2-point road choice at Minnesota. Ranked teams are 116-17 (.872) SU but a more modest 71-60-2 (54.2%) ATS vs unranked opponents Y-T-D.It's its Christmas, it MUST be the NBA. The ESPN/ABC family has a Christmas Day Extravaganza with FIVE games, beginning at 12 noon ET with New Orleans at Miami and concluding with the Clippers visiting Denver at 10:30 ET to play the Nuggets. The Heat surprised almost all (surely Milwaukee fans!) by making it to the NBA Finals, where they lost in six games to the Lakers. However, the Heat were the NBA's best ATS team in last year's "bubble-based" playoffs, going 16-5 ATS. Miami is favored by 3 1/2-points. Speaking of Milwaukee, the Bucks are up next (2:30 ET), when they host Golden St. Milwaukee overcame a 17-point deficit entering the 4th quarter in their season-opener at Boston on Wednesday, only to lose 122-21, when Giannis short-armed a free-throw attempt that would have sent the game into OT. As for Golden St, I guess the best way to put it is, "these are not your father's Warriors." Milwaukee is favored by 10 1/2-points. The Kevin Durant-led Nets (Kyrie would say the Irving-led Nets) are in Boston to face the Celtics, where Brooklyn is a three-point road favorite. It's the second straight game in which Boston has been a home dog. It didn't turn out well for Milwaukee. Will Brooklyn fare better? The Lakers opened their title defense Tuesday night and lost at Staples Center to co-tenants, the LA Clippers. The Lakers celebrated their NBA title with a ring ceremony (often a jinx as I pointed in taking AND winning with the Clippers!), then trailed by as many as 22 points early on against the Clippers before rallying but eventually losing 116-109. As for the Mavs, Luka Doncic led the Mavericks to the playoffs last season to end the franchise's three-season absence but Dallas lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. The Mavs opened their season Wednesday night but lost 106-102 to the Suns, who picked right up where they left off from last year's Orlando 'bubble' (Suns were 8-0 SU & ATS). LA is favored by 6 1/2-points.The  5-game game Extravaganza finally concludes with the Clippers visiting the 'Mile High City" to take on the Nuggets. Most should remember (surely the Clippers and Nuggets do) LA's stunning collapse in their second-round exit in last season's playoffs. The Clippers led the series 3-1 and had a double-digit lead in the second half of Game 5 but the Nuggets came back to win, and then rallied again in Game 6, before finishing the upset in Game 7. Knee-jerk says take the Clippers but they are off a BIG win over the Lakers, while the Nuggets are off a wild home OT 124-122 loss to the Kings in their season-opener. This ISN'T an easy business. The Clippers are a three-point road favorite.See you Saturday for that "special" edition of Ness Notes (Bowls and NFL, only). I'll catch up with CBB and the NBA on Monday.Merry Christmas...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NCAA Basketball and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 25, 2020

The Friday Christmas Day sports schedule offers a full day of games in the NBA and college basketball and a game apiece in the NFL and college football.The card tips off in the NBA with five games. At noon PM ET, Miami hosts New Orleans on ESPN as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 223.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The Heat was upset on Wednesday in their opening game of the season in a 113-107 loss at Oklahoma City as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans upset Toronto on the road by a 113-99 score as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.Milwaukee plays at home against Golden State at 2:30 PM ET on ABC with an over/under of 235.5. The Bucks were upset at Boston in their opening game on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green in this game after he was injured in their 125-99 loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday.The Nets follow up that opening night victory by visiting the Celtics at 5 PM ET on ABC. Brooklyn is a road favorite laying 3 points with a total of 227.5. At 8 PM ET, the Los Angeles Lakers host Dallas on ABC and ESPN as a 6-point favorite with an over/under 227.5. The Lakers were upset in their opening game against the Clippers by a 116-109 score as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. The Mavericks come off a 106-102 loss at Phoenix on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. The NBA slate concludes at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN, with the Los Angeles Clippers playing at Denver. The Nuggets were upset on Wednesday by a 124-122 score as an 8-point favorite. The Clippers are 1-point road favorites with a total of 225.The college basketball card involves four games in the Big Ten. At 12:30 PM ET, Wisconsin visits Michigan State on Fox as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 140.5. The Badgers have won four games in a row after their 67-53 victory against Nebraska on Tuesday. The Spartans were upset in their last contest at Northwestern by a 79-65 score on Sunday. Purdue hosts Maryland at 2:30 PM ET on FS1 as a 6-point favorite with a total of 137. The Boilermakers had their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 70-52 loss at Iowa as a 5.5-point underdog. The Terrapins ended a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with an 84-71 win against LaSalle as a 17.5-point favorite.Michigan plays at Nebraska in their first road game of the season at 6 PM ET. The Wolverines are 8-point road favorites with a total of 148.5. Michigan won their sixth straight game to start the season with a 62-58 win against Penn State back on December 13th. The Cornhuskers have lost three of their last four games after a 67-53 loss on Tuesday as a 13.5-point underdog at Wisconsin.Iowa visits Minnesota at 8 PM ET. The Hawkeyes rebounded from their weekend loss to Gonzaga with that win against Purdue on Tuesday. The Golden Gophers come off a 90-82 upset win against Saint Louis as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Iowa is a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 163.5.The Camellia Bowl kicks off at 2:30 PM ET from the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, between Marshall and Buffalo. The Thundering Herd were upset in the Conference USA championship game at home to UAB by a 22-13 score as a 4.5-point favorite last Friday. The Bulls were also upset in the Mid-American Conference championship game on Friday against Ball State as a 12.5-point favorite by a 38-28 score. Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 54.5. This game is on ESPN.Week 16 in the NFL kicks off at 4:30 PM ET with New Orleans playing at home against Minnesota. The Saints have lost their last two games after their 32-29 loss at home to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Vikings have lost their two straight games after an upset at home to Chicago on Sunday by a 33-27 score. New Orleans is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 51. Fox and the NFL Network have the broadcast.

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NFL Christmas Day Football: Saints/Vikings Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 25, 2020

A rare Christmas Day game in the NFL takes place between two NFC teams still alive in the playoff race. New Orleans begins Week 16 of the season with a 10-4 record, which puts them one game ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. A victory in this game clinches the division for the Saints. They are tied with Seattle for the second seed in the NFC, and they are one-game behind Green Bay for the top spot, which ensures home-field advantage and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. New Orleans does not own a potential tiebreaker with the Packers since Green Bay defeated them in September. The Saints lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans only gained 285 yards in that game, but their offense was only on the field for 18:46 minutes. They averaged 5.59 yards-per-play, which was just below their 5.6 yards-per-play season average. They gave up 411 yards to the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes on the field for over 41 minutes. The Saints’ defense held Kansas City to just 4.67 yards-per-play. That was below their 4.9 yards-per-play defensive average, which is the third-best in the league. New Orleans is also third in the NFL in total defense by giving up only 306.4 yards-per-game. Drew Brees made his first start in five games on Sunday by completing 15 of 34 passes for 234 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Brees is completing 70.5% of his passes for 2430 yards in his ten games with 21 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. Minnesota still has slim playoff hopes after losing their second straight game on Sunday in a 33-27 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite. With their 6-8 record, the Vikings are a game behind the Bears and two games behind Arizona, who currently occupy the final playoff spot in the NFC.Kirk Cousins completed 24 of 35 passes for 271 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the loss. He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 3569 yards with 29 touchdown passes. But Cousins is also responsible for 18 turnovers, including 16 interceptions, which is second-most in the league. The Vikings have been decimated by injuries, especially on defense. The linebacker position is particularly thin. Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out, with Todd Davis listed as doubtful for this game. Defensive end Jalyn Holmes, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and running back Alexander Mattison are also out. Fullback C.J. Ham and defensive tackle Arman Watts are questionable. Minnesota has five players on Injured Reserve, including linebacker Anthony Barr and defensive end Danielle Hunter. New Orleans has wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith and safety Marcus Williams, both out for this game on a short week. They have four players questionable with injuries: guard Andrus Peat; defensive tackle Malcom Brown; defensive end Trey Hendrickson, guard Nick Easton. The Saints have six players on Injured Reserve, including wide receiver Michael Thomas. BookMaker lists New Orleans as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 51. Fox has the broadcast starting at 4:30 PM ET.

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