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2021 Major League Baseball: One Month In

by Power Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

We’re officially one month into the 2021 Major League Baseball season and the Mariners (+7.0 units), A’s (+7.0), Royals (+6.9), Giants (+6.5) and Pirates (+6.5) have been the five most profitable teams to bet on thus far. There are definitely some surprises on that list and I’d expect four of the five (exception being the Giants) to fall pretty quickly.The A’s won 13 in a row at one point, but still have a negative run differential. Ditto for the Mariners. Kansas City has benefited from a 6-1 record in one-run games. The Pirates are expected to be one of the worst teams in either league this season.Minnesota (-12.5 units) and the Yankees (-10.4) are pacing the “bad bets” thus far. Only the Mets (-7.2), who have played far fewer games than anyone else, are within “sniffing” distance of the bottom of the net unit rankings. Colorado (-5.4), Detroit (-5.2), Atlanta (-5.1), Houston (-5.1) and the Cubs (-5.0) round out the rest of the worst.Atlanta and especially Houston should get better as the season wears on. The Astros have the American League’s second best run differential at +24, but are currently just a game above .500. I think a big story thus far is that none of the preseason favorites are leading the respective divisions. Even the Dodgers are one-half game out of first place (trailing the surprising Giants). The NL West looks stacked thus far with the three best run differentials in the Senior Circuit. The Dodgers are +36, the Giants +24 and the Padres (who were supposed to be LA’s main competition) +14.  Could all three end up making the playoffs?The NL East and Central both appear to be wide open. Milwaukee has gotten tremendous pitching the first month of the season. Only the three teams out West are allowing a fewer number of runs per game. That seems more reliable than Cincinnati, who is 1st in runs per game but 29th in runs allowed. The only team in the East with a positive run differential at this point is Miami and they were pegged for last place before the season began. No team in that division is currently .500. We now move to the American League where no team has established itself as a clear favorite. In the Central, I like the White Sox, who have a +31 run differential. As stated above, Kansas City could start to fade as they’ve been fortunate in one-run games. Can’t say the same for Cleveland, who is the only team in MLB yet to win a one-run affair (0-4). Look for Houston to take charge in the West.The East is the most intriguing division in the AL. With the Red Sox starting fast, everyone except Baltimore should be a contender. Boston is top five (in all of baseball) in runs scored, but the Blue Jays and Yankees have been very good at run suppression. Not sure where this leaves Tampa Bay.Three teams from the East (Toronto, Yankees, Baltimore) are in the top six for most Unders in the first month. Ahead of them are: Kansas City (15-7-1), the Mets (12-5-2) and Detroit (19-7 Under). The Mets and Tigers are the two lowest scoring teams in baseball right now. As of this writing, the Tigers have gone Under in 13 straight.Cincinnati is 17-6-1 to the Over this year, easily #1 in that department. That shouldn’t be a surprise given what I mentioned above. Interestingly, the next two highest scoring teams (White Sox, Arizona) are not among the league leaders in Overs. In fact, only two teams besides the Reds have gone Over at least three more times than they’ve gone Under. Those would be Atlanta and the Angels, the latter of whom is giving up the most runs per game at 5.9.  I hope this provides some insight and I will be sure to have multiple updates as we get into the summer months. 

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Ness Notes: MLB 2021: A 4-Week Review

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

The 2020 season was limited to just 60 games and MLB decided to to expand its playoff field to eight teams from each league. The top two teams from each division, plus the teams from each league with the next two best records qualified for the postseason. The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers (both with a record of 29-31) became the first teams to make the postseason with a record below .500 since the Royals did so in the strike season of 1981. MLB split that season into First Half and Second Half winners qualifying for the playoffs (note: Both the AL and NL had just two divisions back then, East and West). The Royals went 50-53 overall, but won the AL West in the Second Half with a 30-23 record. The Royals lost 3-0 to Oakland, winners of the AL West.Milwaukee followed KC's path from 1981 last season, losing its best-of-three wild card series 2-0 to the Dodgers. The Astros became the first, and currently only, team with a record below .500 to win a playoff series. They defeated the Minnesota Twins in the Wild Card Series (2-0) and the Oakland A's in the ALDS (3-1), before losing the ALCS to the Tampa Bay Rays. In that series, Houston lost the first three games but forced a Game 7 before losing. Tampa Bay, in just the second World Series in franchise history, lost 4-2 to the LA Dodgers, who won their first title since 1988.The Dodgers opened the current season having won EIGHT straight NL West titles and their eight consecutive postseason appearances is double that of the next closest team. The Astros and Yankees are tied for the second-longest active playoff streak, with four in a row. However, let me add that neither team would have qualified for last year's postseason without the expanded format, making LA's eight postseason appearances in a row look even more impressive. THREE double-digit playoff droughts ended in 2020, as the Marlins ended a 16-year drought, the Padres a 13-year drought and the White Sox an 11-year drought. Entering the current season, the Mariners haven't been to the postseason since the team went 116-46 back in 2001. Seattle tied the major league record for wins set by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and set the record for wins by an American League team in 2001. However, Seattle opened the 2021 season on a 19-year playoff drought. The second-worst current drought belongs to the Phillies (nine in a row), with the Angels and Tigers next with six straight non-playoff seasons. The playoff field returns to just five teams in each league this season and Wednesday April 28 capped the first four weeks of the 2021 season, a perfect time to take a quick peek at where things stand.If the season ended last night (of course it's just four weeks old but play along), the only division winner from 2020 to stand alone atop that same division in 2021 would be the 15-10 Oakland A's of the NL West. The Dodgers, the defending World Series champs, have dominated the NL West (see above) and while their 16-9 record is tied for MLB's best with two other teams, one of those teams is the SF Giants, leaving LA tied for the NL West lead with their most-hated rivals. Yes, the same Giants who finished 14 games back of the Dodgers in last year's abbreviated 60-game schedule. What's more, SF finished 29 games back of LA in 2019, 18 1/2-games back in 2018 and a whopping 40 games back in 2017. Hard to make this stuff up. The other team at 16-9? How about the first-place Boston Red Sox (AL East). Now of course Boston owns four World Series titles since 2004 but the 2020 edition had a 24-36 record, finishing last in the Al East. The other three division leaders at the four-week mark are the 15-8 KC Royals of the AL Central and 14-10 Milwaukee Brewers of the NL Central, plus the NL East has a tie atop its division between the Braves at Phillies (12-12). The Royals haven't been to the playoff since appearing in back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). As for the Brewers of the NL Central, they've been to three straight postseasons. Over in the NL East, the Braves are the three-time defending champs, while the Phillies last made the postseason back in 2011. A few items about the above-mentioned teams are noteworthy. The Red Sox opened 0-3 but then ran off NINE straight wins, before going 7-6 their last 13. The Oakland A's opened the season 0-6 and after splitting their next two, ripped off 13 consecutive wins. However, they enter Thursday losers of three of their last four. The Phillies opened 4-0 and the Braves opened 0-4 but are both now 12-12, sitting atop a division without a winning team (Can you say NFC East?). The Dodgers opened 13-2 but are just 3-7 their last 10, while the "out of nowhere" Giants have reached 16-9 by owning MLB's best home record of 10-3. With that out of the way, let's talk about moneyline winners and losers (does anything else really matter?), How have those 16-9 teams fared against 'the great equalizer?' The Red Sox are not only tied for MLB's best record but they also lead the moneyline standing at plus-$787 (at $100/game). That's an impressive 'daily double.' The Giants rank third-best at plus-$587 but Dodgers followers would be down $29 Y-T-D if betting $100/game on the defending champs. No one said betting/handicapping MLB is easy. The Dodgers own MLB's best run-differential at plus-37, while only THREE other teams in MLB are better than plus-20. The 13-11 Astros are plus-25 runs but-$169 vs the moneyline, followed by the Giants (plus-24 runs) and the Red Sox (plus-22 runs).Taking a look at 2021's underachievers we have three teams playing less than .400 baseball. The Tigers have lost 10 of 12 and own MLB's worst record at 8-16 (.333), while the Twins have lost 13 of 16 to settle at 8-15 (.348). The Rockies own the NL's worst record at 9-15 (.375) due primarily to owning the worst road record (1-8) in MLB. MLB's three-worst moneyline records belong to the Twins (-$889), the 11-13 Yankees (-$589) and 10-14 Cubs (-$511). The Tigers own MLB's worst run differential at minus-35 runs but the outlook looks better for the Twins (minus-6 runs) and the Rockies (minus-8 runs).This is just a quick 'snapshot,' as the regular season is not scheduled to end unto Oct 3rd. I'll take another 'peek' (update) on Memorial Day.Good luck...Larry

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2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 2: The Value Plays

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

Over the four days leading up the Kentucky Derby, we'll be previewing this first leg of the Triple Crown.  Yesterday, we took a look at the top contenders.  Later this week, we'll focus on the over-bet pretenders (Friday) and the bombs to use in exotic wagers (Saturday).  Today, we discuss the value plays.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 2 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Value Plays:    Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano)    Any time you have a Chad Brown runner in a big race, he’s almost certainly worth a long look.  The problem is that nine times out of ten, you’re probably going to get 2-1 at best as Brown has become the pre-eminent trainer for many of the big stables in the east.  Here’s your chance to get at least 10-1 on a Brown entrant with very few, if any, knocks against.  This well-bred son of leading sire Into Mischief only lost to Essential Quality by a neck in the Toyota Blue Grass last time out and he was well clear of the rest of the field.  A slight improvement since that last race could put Brown in the Derby Winners Circle for the first time.     Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux)    This year’s “forgotten horse” will likely be this son of Into Mischief owned by the prestigious Juddmonte Farms.  Mandaloun has gone off as the odds-on favorite in virtually all five of his races.  And after winning the Risen Star impressively, it seemed the Louisiana Derby was his to lose.  And lose he did, finishing an uninspired 6th.  Trainer Cox has called that one a real head-scratcher and since then Mandaloun is reportedly doing great and his workouts seem to back that up.  Last year’s Derby winner Authentic was also by Into Mischief, and with a Dam by Empire Maker, this boy is bred to run all day so the 1 ¼ mile distance should not be a problem.  After going off no higher than 2-1 in any of his previous races, you’ll likely be looking at 15-1 on Saturday.   King Fury (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez)    Another Curlin runner, Kenny McPeek’s colt doesn’t have to worry about what to do from the #1 post like Known Agenda does.  He drew post #16 which would seem to fit his running style perfectly.  Coming off a 4 ½ month break, King Fury ran by far his best race in winning the Lexington at Keeneland with regular rider Brian Hernandez aboard.  Hernandez may not be one of the household names when it comes to jockeys, but he’s proven time and time again that he can hold his own in the big races.  He won the Lexington at 18-1 and you’re likely to get at least that on Derby Day making King Fury a very usable horse for a saver win bet.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 3:  The Over-bet Pretenders will be published tomorrow, on Friday.

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UEFA Europa League Semifinals Preview and Odds - 04/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

UEFA Europa League Thursday: Semifinals PreviewThe first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Europa League begins on Thursday, with both matches starting at 3 PM ET.Manchester United hosts Roma at Old Trafford. The Red Devils reached the semifinals with their 2-0 win at home against Granada on April 15th. That victory secured their 4-0 aggregate score triumph after their 2-0 road win against the Nazaries on April 8th. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side has won 12 of their last 17 matches across all competitions. They last played on Sunday in a 0-0 draw at Leeds United in a result that ended their five-game winning streak. Man United is in second place in the English Premier League, 10 points behind Manchester City.Roma advanced from the quarterfinals with a 3-2 aggregate score triumph against Ajax. The Yellow and Reds won the first leg on the road, 2-1, on April 8th before settling for a 1-1 draw at home against the Dutch giants on April 15th. Manager Paulo Fonseca’s team is winless in their last four matches after a 3-2 loss at Cagliari on Sunday. Roma is in seventh place in Serie A, trailing Lazio by five points, who still have a game in hand. BetOnline lists Man United as a -1 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.75.Arsenal travels to Villarreal in the second semifinals match. The Gunners advanced from the quarterfinals with a 4-0 victory against Slavia Praha on April 15th. Those teams settled for a 1-1 draw in the first left at Emirates Stadium on April 8th. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side is winless in their last two matches in the English Premier League after a 1-0 loss at home to Everton on April 23rd. Arsenal is in tenth place in the English top flight. They are one point behind Leeds United for ninth place, while a distant six points behind Everton and seven points behind Tottenham for the eighth and seventh place spots. Injuries have played a significant role for the Gunners in the second half of their season. Arteta is hopeful that Alexandre Lacazette, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Kiernan Tierney, and Martin Odegaard will be available. Winning the Europa League title is the best opportunity the franchise has to qualify for the European competition next season. Villarreal reached the semifinals after their 2-1 victory against Dinamo Zagreb on April 15th. The Yellow Submarine won the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin after their road victory in the first leg on April 8th. Manager Unai Emery’s team has lost two in a row in La Liga after their 2-1 loss at home to Barcelona. Villarreal is in seventh place in the Spanish top flight. They trail Real Betis by one point for sixth place, and they lag by four points against Real Sociedad for fifth place in the table. Emery will be a familiar face for many of the Gunners as he was the team’s previous manager before being replaced by Emery in November of 2019.BetOnline lists this match as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 2.5. Both games are available on Paramount+.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Europa League Previews and Odds - 04/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Europa League. The first round of the NFL draft starts at 8 PM ET on ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network.The NBA has six games on the docket. The card begins with two games at 7 PM ET. Brooklyn visits Indiana as a 9-point road favorite at DraftKings. Dallas plays at Detroit. Golden State travels to Minnesota at 8 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 234.5 (all odds at BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Milwaukee plays at Houston as a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. Denver hosts Toronto as a 3-point favorite with the total at 223.5. New Orleans visits Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 229.5.Ten games are on the NHL schedule. Six games begin the slate at 7 PM ET. The New York Rangers are at home against the New Islanders as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Philadelphia travels to New Jersey as a -127 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Carolina is at home against Detroit as a -370 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Boston plays at home against Buffalo as a -365 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay hosts Dallas as a -286 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Toronto is at home against Vancouver at 7:30 PM ET as a -286 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Minnesota hosts St. Louis as a -134 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 5.5.A doubleheader on the NBC Sports Network begins at 8 PM ET with Florida traveling to Chicago. The Panthers are a -158 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at home against Calgary at 9 PM ET as a -141 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 6. The NBC Sports Network will join this game in progress after the ending of Florida/Chicago.Ten games are on the MLB docket. The New York Yankees visit Baltimore at 1:05 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Tampa Bay is at home against Oakland at 1:10 PM ET as a -105 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Philadelphia travels to St. Louis at 1:15 PM ET as a -117 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Seattle plays at Houston at 2:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox host Detroit in the opening game of a seven-inning doubleheader at 5:10 PM ET. Atlanta is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Milwaukee at 7:40 PM ET as a -152 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston visits Texas as a -122 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Detroit plays at Chicago against the White Sox in the second game of their doubleheader at 8:40 PM ET. Arizona is at home against Colorado at 9:40 PM ET as a -151 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The semifinals of the Europa League begin at 3 PM with both first-leg matches. Arsenal plays at Villarreal in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. Manchester United is at home against Roma as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Both matches are on Paramount+.

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UEFA Champions League Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Preview: Man City at PSG.The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League continues on Wednesday, with Paris Saint-Germain hosting Manchester City at their Parc des Princes on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET.PSG reached the semifinals of the European championship by defeating Bayern Munich with the away goals tiebreaker. Les Parisiens won the opening match at Allianz Stadium, 3-2, on April 7th. Kylian Mbappe scored twice, and Marquinhos added a third goal in the triumph. Despite losing at home to the Bavarians in the second leg on April 13th, their three goals on the road broke the 3-3 aggregate score stalemate. Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s team may have endured the most difficult road to reach the final four. PSG survived a challenge group stage that included RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Les Parisiens then faced Barcelona in the first knockout stage round. They defeated Lionel Messi and company by a 5-2 aggregate score after striking a dominant 4-1 blow on the road in the first leg against Barca. PSG comes off a 3-1 victory at home to Metz on Saturday in Ligue 1 play. Mbappe scored twice before exiting the match with a knee injury. Mauro Icardi added the final goal. Les Parisiens have won four of their last five games across all competitions, and they have scored at least three goals in seven of nine matches. They are in second place in the French top flight, one point behind Lille. Manchester City has won three of their last four matches after capturing the Carabou Cup title in a 1-0 victory against Tottenham at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Aymeric LaPorte scored the lone goal in the 82nd minute to give manager Pep Guardiola his fourth straight League Cup. The Citizens advanced to the semifinals of the Championship League for the first time under Guardiola’s stewardship with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund. Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden scored in the opening leg 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium on April 6th. Riyad Mahrez and Foden scored in the second leg on the road on April 14th. Man City reached the quarterfinals after they dispatched another Bundesliga side, Borussia Monchengladbach, by a 4-0 aggregate score in the first knockout stage. The Citizens have won nine of their ten Champions League matches this season with a 0-0 draw against FC Porto, the lone blemish on their resume. Guardiola is on track to guide to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons. Man City is in first place by 10 points over Manchester United. Neither of these storied franchises has lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy. PSG lost to Bayern Munich in the finals last August. Les Parisiens would be just the ninth team in the history of the event to reach the finals if they can get past Man City. Mbappe is a doubt with his weekend knee injury, but he expects to play. BetOnline lists Man City as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.75.Computer prediction:  Manchester City 2 Paris Saint-Germain 1

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2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 1: The Contenders

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

Over the next four days, we'll be previewing the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Today, we will take a look at the top contenders.  Later this week, we'll focus on the value plays (Thursday), over-bet pretenders (Friday) and the bombs to use in exotic wagers (Saturday).In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 1 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses:    Top Contenders:    Essential Quality (trainer Brad Cox, jockey Luis Saez)    You would have to look long and hard to find anything wrong that the undefeated son of Tapit has done in getting this far.  And even then you would come up empty.  Simply put, Essential Quality has been like Nolan Ryan in any of his seven no-hitters.  So why bet against him?  Well for starters, we had an almost identical case last year when Tiz The Law not only ran perfect in the spring, but also in the summer leading up to the belated October Derby.  And he could do no better than second.  So go ahead and put your eggs in this basket and nobody will blame you.  Just not all of your eggs.    Rock Your World (John Sadler, Joel Rosario)      Baffert may not have one of the top horses, but that doesn't mean that California isn't well-represented.  This son of Candy Ride won the Santa Anita Derby in impressive fashion and if there isn't much pace in the Derby (and there doesn't appear to be), then Rock Your World may just play a game of 'catch me if you can.'  Rosario picks up the mount from California turf specialist Umberto Rispoli (Rispoli has since picked up the mount on Brooklyn Strong, who just drew into the race on Monday) and that certainly makes Sadler's 3YO an even more attractive choice.  From a speed figure perspective, Rock Your World's Santa Anita Derby is right there with Essential Quality's best races, but he figures to go off at significantly longer odds (6-1 vs. 3-1).    Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz)    Like Baffert, it's rare for Pletcher not to have at least one horse who is in the top three or four favorites in the Derby.  He doesn't win as often as Baffert, but his top horses have to be taken seriously.  And this son of Classic winner Curlin is a serious contender based on his last two efforts.  There isn't a better jockey in the country right now than Ortiz, who comes to Churchill Downs off successful meets at Keeneland and Aqueduct.  And before those two, he set the single-season Championship Meet win record at Gulfstream Park over the Winter.  Part of that Meet record for Ortiz was a dominant win aboard Known Agenda in the March 27 Florida Derby.  Can Known Agenda win outside of Florida?  And can he win from the dreaded #1 post position?  Those questions will be answered on Saturday.  And you're likely to get a nice price (maybe 10-1) to find out.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 2:  The Value Plays will be published tomorrow, on Thursday.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 04/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Champions League.The NBA has ten games on the docket. The card begins with two games at 7 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against Atlanta as an 8.5-point favorite with the total set at 220 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Cleveland is at home against Orlando as a 2-point favorite at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Lakers visit Washington in the first game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Lakers ended a three-game losing streak with a 114-103 victory at Orlando as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. The Wizards had their eight-game winning streak end with a 146-143 loss to San Antonio as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10 PM ET. Utah visits Sacramento as a 9-point road favorite at DraftKings. Phoenix plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers in the nightcap game on ESPN. The Suns ended a two-game losing streak with a 118-110 victory at New York as a 3-point favorite on Monday. The Clippers had their four-game winning streak end with a 120-103 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point road favorite on Monday. Phoenix is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings.Seven games are on the NHL schedule. Ottawa hosts Vancouver at 5:30 PM ET as a -106 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Minnesota plays at home against St. Louis in the opening game of a doubleheader on NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Wild have won seven in a row after their 6-3 victory at San Jose on Saturday. The Blues have won two in a row with their 4-1 victory against Colorado on Monday. Minnesota is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Vegas is at home against Colorado in the second game on the NBC Sports Network at 9:38 PM ET. The Golden Knights have won nine in a row with their 5-1 victory at Anaheim on Saturday. The Avalanche have lost two in a row after a 4-1 loss at St. Louis on Monday. Vegas is a -135 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. The NHL card concludes at 10:30 PM ET with San Jose hosting Arizona. The Sharks are a -105 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. The three-day games begin at 1:10 PM ET, with Minnesota visiting Cleveland as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Atlanta hosts the Chicago Cubs on FS1 at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves have won the first two games of this series after their 5-0 victory on Tuesday. The Cubs have lost four in a row. Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks to face Huascar Ynoa. Atlanta is a -122 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The MLB card has two games at 9:40 PM ET to close out its schedule. San Diego plays at Arizona as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 9. San Francisco is at home against Colorado as a -133 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The semifinals of the UEFA Champions League continue with the first leg match between Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET. Man City is a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the total at 2.75.

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NBA: Overachievers and Underachievers

by Power Sports

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

Today I wanted to take a look at some NBA teams that - objectively speaking - have either overachieved or underachieved this season. The objective metric I’ll focus on is the team’s actual number of straight up wins vs. the number of games in which they’ve been favored. If a team’s actual SU win total greatly exceeds the number of games in which they’ve been favored, I think it’s fair to say they’ve “overachieved.” On the flip side, if a team’s number of actual SU wins falls well short of the number of times they’ve been favored, I think it’s fair to say they’ve “underachieved.” Two months ago, I looked at a number of teams that I thought could be potential risers and fallers in the NBA standings. I’m proud to say that much of what I said in that article has played out. The benchmark, or differential, I used to determine if a team has truly over or under achieved was 10. Teams with 10 or more actual wins than the number of times they’ve been favored are the overachievers. Similarly, it takes 10 fewer actual wins vs. the number of times favored to be considered an underachiever.Overachievers 1. Charlotte - Here is a team I do not understand. The Hornets have been favored in only 18 of their first 60 games, yet have a 30-30 SU record. On top of that, mounting injuries “should have” derailed their season. Only four teams in the East have a worse YTD point differential and they are being outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Even if the Hornets make the play-in round, they won’t last long. 2. New York - Basketball seems to be back in the Big Apple as the Knicks have gone 34-28 SU despite being favored in only 21 games. They are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS when favored. Unlike Charlotte, the Knicks seem to be “more legit” as they lead the league in the number of points per game allowed. Even though they just had a 9-game win streak snapped, I expect New York to finish in the top six in the East and avoid the play-in round. 3. Washington - The Wizards just had an 8-game win streak snapped. Even with that, they are still only 10th in the East, just barely in the play-in round. They are a bottom four team in the East in terms of point differential and net efficiency. The defense has gotten better recently, but the Wiz are still 28th in points per game allowed. They do have two All-Stars (Beal and Westbrook), but have only been favored 17 times all season. They should feel fortunate to be 27-34 SU. ‘Honorable Mention: The league’s bottom feeders aren’t favored often, so almost all of them project as “overachievers” by this metric that I’m using. Maybe that’s a flaw of the metric as I don’t think teams with 21 or fewer wins should really be considered as overachieving. Cleveland has won 21 games despite being favored only seven times. Similar examples would be Minnesota and Oklahoma City, who have won 11 and 18 more games (respectively) than the number of times favored. The Thunder have been favored only twice all season!Underachievers 1. Boston - The Celtics are 32-29 and should finish in the top six in the East. But they have been favored in 41 of 61 games and probably should be doing a lot better. Injuries have been a problem. But still, oddsmakers have more faith than they probably should. Boston is only 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS as a road favorite.  2. Denver - The Nuggets will probably finish fourth in the West, which is lower than either of the previous two seasons (2nd and 3rd). What’s interesting about that is it felt they overachieved both times. This season, they have been favored in 50 of 61 games, but are only 40-21. If they do end up matched with the Lakers in the first round, most people will pick against Denver and I can’t say that I disagree with that.3. Miami - The Heat were in the NBA Finals last October, but won’t be getting back there in July. First off, they are probably going to be in the play-in round. A big reason for that is a failure to win when favored. Miami has gone off as the favorite in 43 of its 62 games, but they are just 32-30 as of April 27th. Last season saw them go a league best 8-1 SU in overtime games. This season they are 0-4 SU in OT. Honorable Mention: Just like bad teams are misleading overachievers by this metric, good teams are misleading underachievers. Milwaukee has been an underdog only four times. Obviously, they aren’t going to go 56-4 SU. But 37-23 feels disappointing. Utah has lost a league-low 17 times, but has only been an underdog in three games. The Clippers have 43 wins while being favored 53 times

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UEFA Champions League: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 27, 2021

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Preview: Chelsea at Real Madrid.The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begins on Tuesday, with Real Madrid hosting Chelsea at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET.Real Madrid advanced to the semifinals of the Champions League with their 3-1 aggregate score victory against Liverpool in the quarterfinals. Vinicius Junior scored twice, and Marco Asensio added a goal in their 3-1 win in the first leg at home on April 6th. A scoreless draw in the second match at Anfield Stadium in the second leg on April 14th secured their advancement. Los Blancos come off a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in their most recent match on Saturday. That result was their third draw in their last four games across all competitions. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s team is tied with Barcelona for second place in La Liga, four points behind Atletico Madrid, currently at the top of the table. Barca has a game in hand. Zinedine will have Eden Hazard available for this match after he came on a substitute on Saturday. The former Chelsea forward has missed most of the season with an assortment of knocks. Center back Raphael Varone is also back after returning from COVID quarantine. Real Madrid will be missing several players. Center back Sergio Ramos remains out with a calf injury, and left-back Ferland Mendy is dealing with a calf injury of his own. Midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde are also doubts after recent knocks. Chelsea reached the semifinals with a 2-1 aggregate victory against FC Porto in the quarterfinals. The Blues won the first leg, 2-0, at Stamford Bridge on April 7th. Mason Mount scored the opening goal in the 32nd minute before Ben Chilwell added the second goal at the 85-minute mark. Chelsea lost the second leg at Porto, 1-0, on April 13th, but the Dragons' late goal was not enough to sudden death. The Blues come off a 1-0 victory at West Ham United on Saturday. Timo Werner scored the lone goal after 43 minutes in the first half. The win broke a deadlock with the Hammers for fourth place in the English Premier League. Chelsea is a distant 19 points behind Manchester City for first place at the EPL table. They trail Leicester City by three points for third place. Since Thomas Tuchel took over the managerial duties from Frank Lampard in late January, the Blues have only lost twice in 21 matches. The former Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund skipper deployed a 3-4-2-1 formation that improved the defensive structure of this team. Sixteen of the games under Tuchel have been clean sheets. They advanced to the championship game of the FA Cup with a 1-0 victory against Manchester City on April 17th.Chelsea will be without midfielder Maceo Kovacic who is dealing with a thigh injury. BookMaker lists Real Madrid as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.Computer prediction:  Real Madrid 1 Chelsea 0

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 04/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Apr 27, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Champions League.The NBA has six games on the docket. The card begins with three games at 7 PM ET. Milwaukee travels to Charlotte as a 9-point road favorite with the total set at 220.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Boston plays at home against Oklahoma City as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Portland visits Indiana as a 4-point road favorite at DraftKings. Brooklyn is at Toronto at 7:30 PM ET as a 6.5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Minnesota plays at Houston at 9 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite at DraftKings.Dallas visits Golden State on TNT at 9:30 PM ET. The Mavericks had their three-game winning streak end in a 113-106 upset loss at Sacramento as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. The Warriors have won three of their last four games with their 117-113 victory against Sacramento as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas is a 1-point road favorite at DraftKings. Eight games are on the NHL schedule. Five games begin the card at 7 PM ET. Boston plays at Pittsburgh as a -115 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5. The New York Rangers play at home against Buffalo as a -280 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Columbus is at home against Detroit as a -128 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Philadelphia travels to New Jersey as a -134 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.Washington hosts the New York Islanders on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Capitals have won six of their last eight games after their 6-3 victory at New York against the Islanders on Saturday. New York has lost four of six games. Washington is a -113 money line favorite with the total at 5.5.Florida travels to Nashville at 8 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Tampa Bay plays at Chicago as a -188 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Carolina visits Dallas at 8:30 PM ET as a -129 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. The card begins at 6:10 PM ET with Minnesota playing at Cleveland as a -109 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Kansas City is at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees travel to Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -171 money line road favorite with the total at 9.5. Washington visits Toronto at 7:07 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Oakland plays at Tampa Bay at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets host Boston on ESPN at 7:10 PM ET. The Mets have won two of their last three games after their 4-0 victory against Washington on Sunday. The Red Sox have won two of three after their 5-3 win against Seattle on Sunday. Boston sends out Garrett Richards to face David Peterson. New York is a -136 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Atlanta is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Milwaukee plays at home against Miami at 7:40 PM ET as a -152 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Philadelphia visits St. Louis at 7:45 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.The Los Angeles Angels play at Texas at 8:05 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox hosts Detroit at 8:10 PM ET as a -230 money line favorite with a total of 8. Houston plays at home against Seattle as a -177 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.San Diego visits Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 9. San Francisco is at home against Colorado as a -162 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against Cincinnati at 10:10 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.The semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begin on Tuesday with Real Madrid hosting Chelsea in the first leg of their two matches on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET. Los Blancos are a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.25. 

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UEFA Champions League Semi-Final Preview

by Sean Murphy

Monday, Apr 26, 2021

The first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final round takes place this week with Chelsea traveling to Spain to face Real Madrid on Tuesday while Paris-St. Germain hosts Manchester City on Wednesday.The lead-up to the matches has been overshadowed of course by the proposed creation and immediate collapse of the European Super League. Nevertheless, we have two fantastic matchups in the offing. Here's a quick look at both (odds courtesy BetOnline).Tuesday, April 27thReal Madrid (-0.25 -109) vs. Chelsea (+0.25 -111)Los Blancos have been playing phenomenal defensive football, contributing to an incredible 17-match unbeaten streak going all the way back to a January 30th setback against Levante. Most impressive is the fact that no opponent has managed to score more than a single goal against Real Madrid over the course of that 17-game stretch.Off a disappointing 0-0 showing against Real Betis on Saturday, Real Madrid will be eager to push forward and shake out of its own scoring slump here, noting that it has failed to register a goal in three of its last four matches overall. Chelsea won't be easy to break down, noting that it has posted three consecutive clean sheets since an ugly 1-0 loss in the second leg of its Champions League quarter-final matchup with Porto. Note that Real Madrid has an excellent track record when reaching this stage of the Champions League, having gone on to win the title each of the last three times it has made it to the semi-final round. You have to wonder if the majority of the Blues focus is on the English Premier League, where they currently sit fourth in the table with a three point cushion over fifth-place West Ham. Chelsea does check in undefeated in its last 10 away fixtures. This marks its first appearance in the Champions League semi-final round since 2014 when it bowed out against Atletico Madrid. Wednesday, April 28thParis-St. Germain (+0.25 -104) vs. Manchester City (-0.25 -116)Parc des Princes will be the venue for the first leg of this intriguing semi-final showdown between PSG and Manchester City. Both clubs are looking for their first ever Champions League title.PSG will be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat if they don't have the services of international superstar Kylian Mbappe after he was forced to leave Saturday's 3-1 victory over Metz with a thigh injury. Mbappe scored twice in the victory and his status remains up in the air for Wednesday's contest. Mbappe's status notwithstanding, PSG has been rolling offensively in recent weeks, scoring at least three goals in seven of its last night matches overall. Home field advantage has meant very little as it has managed just three victories in its last eight contests here at Parc des Princes.Manchester City reached the semi-final stage thanks to consecutive thrilling 2-1 victories over a game Borussia Dortmund squad with Phil Foden securing those wins with a pair of late markers. This marks the first time Man City has reached the Champions League semis since 2016 when it lost to eventual champions Real Madrid. How fitting would it be for it to draw a rematch with Los Blancos in the final of this year's tournament? City checks in having won nine of its 10 Champions League matches to date, with its lone setback coming in the second leg of its quarter-final matchup against Porto. In those 10 previous matches, it has allowed a grand total of just three goals, which outlines the importance of PSG having super-scorer Mbappe for this match.

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