by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Jan 13, 2023
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UNR -1.5; UNR -120, Utah State +100; O/U 143.5
FanDuel: UNR -2.5; UNR -132, Utah State +110; O/U 143.5
BetMGM: UNR -1.5; No ML; O/U 143.5
Caesars: UNR -2; UNR -125, Utah State +105; O/U 143.5
Season record
Utah State: 14-3 (3-1 Mountain West)
Nevada-Reno: 14-4 (4-1 Mountain West)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
Utah State - UNR preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Utah State: won 83-63 vs. Wyoming
Nevada-Reno: lost 74-65 at San Diego State
The Mountain West Conference has arguably never been stronger. Two of those teams happen to be playing Friday night when the Utah State Aggies head to Reno to take on the Nevada-Reno Wolfpack in a battle of 14-win teams.
Utah State has won four of its last five and is coming off an 83-63 win over Wyoming. In addition to the outright wins, the Aggies have reeled off four of five wins while covering the spread. The only time they didn’t was when they were 2-point underdogs against the Boise State Broncos and lost by 23. Sometimes college basketball doesn’t make sense, but that’s why Boise State is the conference favorite right now.
Utah State took care of business in the 20-point win at home thanks to 22 points from Taylor Funk and 16 points and 15 rebounds from Daniel Akin. Sean Bairstow and Max Shulga each chipped in with 14 points as the Aggies shot 51 percent from the floor.
Utah State is one of those teams that doesn’t need a lot of threes to win games, as evidence of their 8 of 18 showing from long range. The Aggies are a team that can dominate inside but will absolutely have a chance to kill you from deep if they want to.
UNR is coming off a 74-65 loss to San Diego State on Tuesday, their seond push in the last five games as the Wolfpack were 9-point underdogs. That loss ended a six-game winning streak that included a 2-point victory over Boise State to begin conference play.
Any time you play San Diego State, you’re going to need to dig deep offensively to make something happen. UNR shot 40% from the floor and just 5 of 25 from 3-point ramge. Nick Davidson was the leading scorer with 17 points off the bench in 20 minutes, but Kenan Blackshear was just 6 of 18 from the floor and finished with 12 points. He went 0 for 6 from 3-point range. Jarod Lucas (11) and Darrion Williams (10) were the only other players in double figures, but that wasn’t any help.
As mentioned, that was UNR’s second push in the last five games, but they are 4-0-2 against the spread in their last six. UNR is 8-1-1 against the spread in their last 10 at home and the over is 5-1 in their last six. The over has also done well for Utah State, going 5-1 in its last six and 5-1 in the Aggies’ last six Friday games. Off an ATS win, the over is also 8-2 in the last 10.
Prediction
This is going to be a high-scoring battle in which the home team has covered in nine of the last 13 meetings. With the way those defenses are, this is a good chance for UNR to get another quality win. Nevada-Reno 81, Utah State 78
Betting trends
Utah State is 17-8 ATS after an over the last 2 seasons.
Utah State is 71-45 ATS after a cover as a double-digit favorite since 1997.
Utah State is 32-17 ATS after a win the last 3 seasons.
UNR is 84-59 ATS when the line +3 to -3 since 1997.
UNR is 8-2 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
Projected starting lineup
Utah State:
PG: Rylan Jones
SG: Max Shulga
SF: Sean Bairstow
PF: Taylor Funk
C: Trevin Dorius
Nevada-Reno:
PG: Jarod Lucas
SG: Tre Coleman
SF: Darrion Williams
PF: Kenan Blackshear
C: Will Baker
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Utah State - Nevada-Reno prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
