by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 26, 2021
Game time: Noon ET, October 30, 2021
Venue: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Where to watch: ESPN3
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Liberty -36; O/U 58.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Liberty -36; O/U 58.5
Season record
UMass: 1-6
Liberty: 6-2
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UMass - Liberty preview and analysis
Last week
UMass: lost 59-3 at Florida State on Oct. 23
Liberty: won 35-26 at North Texas on Oct. 23
The good news for this week is that the Massachusetts Minutemen are not going into this matchup winless. Because what a miserable pitfall that would be.
The Minutemen at least have found a way to win this season, but now go against the Liberty Flames on Saturday in a matchup that’s going to be a miserable four quarters for UMass.
It’s been a season to forget for UMass despite getting that *historic* win over the Connecticut Huskies two weeks ago. The only way to improve off that is losing by eight touchdowns to the Florida State Seminoles. Makes sense.
Minutemen quarterback Brady Olson was good for only 110 yards and two interceptions, as the offense only mustered 241 total yards. Meanwhile, the FSU ground game outgained UMass’ entire offense with 365 yards and five touchdowns. The defense was not ready for such a day.
As UMass enters losing three of its last four, those three losses have seen the Minutemen score a grand total of 13 points while giving up 157. Yes, if you take away the UConn win, UMass has been outscored 157-13. And somehow, thanks to that UConn win, they’re not in the category of UNLV or Arizona. What a time.
This is the ultimate matchup where Liberty just has to show up and play before the running clock is in effect. Liberty is coming off just a nine-point win over lowly North Texas last week, where the Mean Green actually held a lead at one point in the third quarter.
The Flames aren’t the dominant team they were in the beginning of the season, but still talented enough to take out these inferior squads. North Texas would probably beat UMass by 30 is what I’m trying to say.
Malik Willis threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns last week, and CJ Daniels led the way with seven receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns.
Prediction
If Liberty doesn’t win by six touchdowns, this may be an ultimate failure. There’s nothing else around this. Liberty by 42
Betting trends
UMass is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games.
UMass is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 after scoring six points or less in its previous game.
Liberty is 6-0 ATS when a home favorite of 21.5 or more.
Liberty is 12-0 straight up as a home favorite.
Statistical leaders
UMass:
Passing: Brady Olson -- 958 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Ellis Merriweather -- 416 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Rico Arnold -- 255 yards, 1 TD
Liberty:
Passing: Malik Willis -- 1,679 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Malik Willis -- 647 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Demario Douglas -- 547 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
