by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 5, 2024
Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UCLA +27.5, PSU -27.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UCLA +27.5, PSU -27.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UCLA +27.5, PSU -27.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
UCLA Bruins: 1-3 (0-2) (18th place, Big Ten)
Penn State Nittany Lions: 4-0 (1-0) (3rd place, Big Ten)
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UCLA Bruins: lost their last game at home against the Oregon Ducks 34-13.
Penn State Nittany Lions: won their last game at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini 21-7.
UCLA Bruins vs Penn State Nittany Lions Preview and Analysis
UCLA is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Oregon 34-13. Ethan Garbers was the starting QB and he completed 12/20 passes for 118 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. T.J. Harden led the team in rushing yards with 53. Kwazi Gilmer led the receivers with 31 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Carson Schwesinger led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Bryan Addison came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Penn State is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Illinois 21-7. Drew Allar was the starting QB and he completed 15/21 passes for 135 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kaytron Allen led the team in rushing yards with 102 and 1 TD. Harrison Wallace III led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jaylen Reed led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Abdul Carter led the defense in sacks with 2. A.J. Harris came away with the only interception for them in that one.
UCLA vs Penn State Prediction
The current betting odds have Penn State listed as a 27.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Penn State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They have struggled in a few of their games, like their win against Bowling Green and even last week against Illinois, but that win over Illinois is a solid win that will give them some momentum going forward. They are 3-0 in their home games this season and they will be playing a much weaker team at home this week. Meanwhile, UCLA has looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-3 record overall and their 0-2 conference record. This is their first season playing in the Big Ten but already they look like the worst team in the conference. They lost both of their conference games at home to Indiana and Oregon, and neither game was close with the closest loss being by 21 points. Now this will be UCLA's first conference game on the road and they are getting one of the best teams in the conference in a really tough place to play. Penn State hasn't really been blowing out the stronger teams they have faced, but this is a good game for them to have a blow out win against one of the weakest teams in the Big Ten this season. The best way to place a bet here is on Penn State to cover the spread in this game.
UCLA Penn State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 5, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Penn State 45 UCLA 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
UCLA Bruins: 1-5 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 3-6 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 7-13 1H ATS against conference opponents. 4-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 rushing yards/game or more. 7-3 1H OVER as an underdog. 10-4 1H OVER after playing a game at home.
Penn State Nittany Lions: 19-6 ATS as a favorite. 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 9-5 OVER off a win against a conference rival. 6-1 OVER off a home win against a conference rival. 4-2 1H OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Key Injuries
UCLA Bruins: C. Stephens (DB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Abarca (DL) Out - Undisclosed. J. Price (DL) Out - Undisclosed. M. Thorpe-Taylor (OL) Out - Undisclosed. S. Summa (TE) Out - Undisclosed. D. Magna (OL) Out - Undisclosed. L. Edwards (LB) Out - Undisclosed. O. Akinshilo (OL) Out - Undisclosed. D. Murrell (RB) Out - Knee. G. Smith (DL) Out - Ankle. H. Habermehl (TE) Out - Knee. T. Leigber (RB) Out - Knee. D. Pellot (LB) Out - Knee.
Penn State Nittany Lions: A. Rappleyea (TE) Out - Undisclosed. D. Cook (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Gonzalez (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Cunningham (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Williams (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Andrews (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Smolik (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Robinson (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Robinson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Siafa (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Wylie (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Fisher (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. X. Gilliam (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Cross (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Just like I told them, there’s not many words that are going to change this. It’s our actions. Actions speak louder than words. We’ve got to change our actions out there on the field, and hopefully that’ll fix some stuff.” - Deshaun Foster after his team’s loss against Oregon in their last game.
“That was a phenomenal environment. We thought the fans had seven impacts on the game, whether it was timeouts, false starts, penalties or bad snaps.” - James Franklin after his team’s win against Illinois in their last game.
Starting Lineups
UCLA Bruins
WR Sturdivant, J.Michael
WR Mokiao-Atimalala, Titus
WR Flores Jr., Rico
TE Matavao, Moliki
QB Garbers, Ethan
RB Harden, T.J.
FB Adkins, Anthony
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Wallace III, Harrison
WR Fleming, Julian
WR Clifford, Liam
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Allar, Drew
RB Singleton, Nicholas
Statistical Leaders
UCLA Bruins
Passing: E. Garbers (808)
Rushing: T. Harden (125)
Receiving: R. Flores (187)
Touchdowns: R. Flores (1)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: D. Allar (864)
Rushing: N. Singleton (408)
Receiving: T. Warren (260)
Touchdowns: N. Singleton (5)
Coaches:
UCLA Bruins: Deshaun Foster (1st season)
Penn State Nittany Lions: James Franklin (11th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
