by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Nov 28, 2021
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Exactech Arena/O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
Where to watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Florida -21
BetMGM: Florida -21.5
Caesars: Florida -21.5
Season record
Troy: 4-2
No. 23 Florida: 5-0
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Troy - Florida preview and analysis
Recent form
Troy: won 83-78 (OT) at Florida Atlantic on Monday
Florida: won 71-68 vs. Ohio State on Wednesday
The Florida Gators will look to start 6-0 when they host the Troy Trojans on Sunday in Gainesville.
Florida has gotten off to a strong start through the month of November, averaging 75.4 points per game despite shooting only 43.2 percent from the field. Defense has come to play for Florida, though, giving up only 57.8 points and holding opponents to make only 40.5 percent of their shots.
The Gators are coming off a 71-68 stunning victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes on a buzzer-beater from Tyree Appleby. Florida shot only 36.7 percent from the floor and defense allowing Ohio State to shoot 53 percent, but the Gators made 10 more free throws and had 13 steals.
Phlandrous Fleming Jr. was the Gators’ lead scorer with 19 points off the bench, while Colin Castleton led all starting scorers with 11 points and 13 rebounds.
Despite that surprising start, Florida is only 4-1 ATS with the lone loss coming against Elon University in the season opener, failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites. Since then, the Gators have been a good play at the sportsbook, covering all four including the last three as favorites; the game-winning 3 from Appleby was the ultimate backdoor cover by a half-point.
Troy enters this matchup having won two in a row and is coming off a 5-point overtime victory over the Florida Atlantic Owls. Thanks to their high-pressure defense, the Trojans were able to pull away late. Duke Deen, probably the Trojans’ best player, led the way with 17 points on 5 of 11 shooting.
The Trojans come in, at latest odds, as 21-point underdogs and have gone 3-0 ATS as underdogs this season, including as 5-point dogs against FAU.
Prediction
While Florida’s run has been impressive and it’s landed them a spot in the top 25, I’m not so sure that we’ve seen enough from the Gators at this point to indicate if they’re where we expect them to be. It’s a talented group that will run with the top teams in the SEC, but we need more out of this group. It should be an easy win, but not a cover. Florida by 18
Betting trends
The over is 4-0 in Troy’s last four games.
The over is 9-3-1 in Florida’s last 13 following a win ATS.
Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
Projected starting lineup
Troy:
PG: Duke Deen
SG: Desmond Williams
SF: Nick Stampley
PF: Efe Odigie
C: Nate Tshimanga
SF: Nick Stampley
PF: Efe Odigie
C: Nate Tshimanga
Florida:
PG: Tyree Appleby
SG: Myreon Jones
SF: Brandon McKissic
PF: Anthony Duruji
C: Colin Castleton
SF: Brandon McKissic
PF: Anthony Duruji
C: Colin Castleton
Statistical leaders
Troy:
Points: Duke Deen -- 13.3
Rebounds: Zay Williams -- 7.3
Assists: Duke Deen -- 4.3
Florida:
Points: Colin Castleton -- 15.8
Rebounds: Colin Castleton -- 10.4
Assists: Tyree Appleby -- 3.6
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
