Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/16/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Friday, May 16, 2025

Venue:  Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Leafs +200, Panthers -245; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Leafs +195, Panthers -240; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Leafs +200, Panthers -250; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Toronto Maple Leafs:  52-26-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Florida Panthers:  47-31-4 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Toronto Maple Leafs:  5-3-2 last 10

Florida Panthers:  7-3-0 last 10

The Maple Leafs are entering the playoffs with 108 points, a 52-26-4 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Florida Panthers in their last game, losing that one at home 6-1. Nicholas Robertson scored 1 goal for them in that one. Max Domi led the team in assists with 1 while Auston Matthews and William Nylander each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Joseph Woll was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 25 shots with 20 saves and a .800 sv percentage before getting replaced by Matt Murray who allowed 1 goal on 7 shots with 6 saves and a .857 save percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Panthers are entering the playoffs with 98 points, a 47-31-4 record overall, and they were 27-12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game, winning that one on the road 6-1. Jesper Boqvist, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett, A.J. Greer, Dmitry Kulikov, and Niko Mikkola each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Sam Reinhart and Nate Schmidt each led the team in assists with 2 while Aaron Ekblad and Sam Reinhart each led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 32 shots with 31 saves and a .969 save percentage. Their offense has scored 252 goals this season averaging 3.1 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 223 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Panthers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Maple Leafs and the 3rd seeded Panthers from the Atlantic Division for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers are leading this series 3-2 after winning game 5 on the road. The Panthers took a 3-2 series lead with a 6-1 win over the Maple Leafs in the 5th game of this series and this series pretty much looks over now. The Maple Leafs got out to a really strong start in this series, winning both home games to start and almost stealing game 3 on the road too, losing that one in OT, but now they have been in a complete spiral with 3 losses in a row and just lost the home advantage in this series with that home loss. Now they are going on the road facing elimination in this game and the Maple Leafs are going to have a ton of pressure on them after blowing a 2-0 series lead to start. The Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions for a reason and they have shown why with the way they have come back in this series after going down 2-0. The Maple Leafs just don't have the experience to lean on like the Panthers do and now that the Panthers have gotten the Maple Leafs into this bad position, facing elimination on the road after a 2-0 start to the series, all signs point to the Panthers closing out this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Panthers to win this game and on the puckline. 

Maple Leafs Panthers Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Friday, May 16, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Panthers 4 Leafs 1.

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Toronto Maple Leafs: 161-112 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 61-51 (-17.8 units) on the moneyline revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. 82-69 (-5.9 units) on the moneyline against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game. 5-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series. 

Florida Panthers: 17-9 (+7.5 units) on the moneyline when leading in a playoff series. 48-33 (+11.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 114-87 (+6.3 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 22-15 UNDER in a home game where the total is 5.5.

Toronto Maple Leafs:  A. Stolarz (G) Out - Upper Body. J. Hakanpaa (D) Out - Knee.

Florida Panthers:  E. Rodrigues (C) Day To Day - Undisclosed.

“First period they outskated us really. They had the puck, won the races. We played slow. They were fast, honest, hungrier. That’s the first period and that sets the tone for the game. It’s hard to explain it, we all have to be better, myself included. You can’t start the game that way.” - Craig Berube after his team’s loss against the Panthers in game 5 of this series on Wednesday.

“I think Sergei is always available to get into a groove. His preparation doesn’t change, he has no idea about his stats. I think recently and it was true in the latter half of the Tampa [Bay] series (in the first round), the guys in front of him are playing a game he understands, that he has history with this year.” - Paul Maurice after his team’s win against the Maple Leafs in game 5 of this series on Wednesday.

LW Matthew Knies

C Auston Matthews

RW Mitchell Marner

LD Jake McCabe

RD Christopher Tanev

G Joseph Woll

LW Jesper Boqvist

C Aleksander Barkov

RW Sam Reinhart

LD Gustav Forsling

RD Aaron Ekblad

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Points: M. Marner (102)

Goals: W. Nylander (45)

Assists: M. Marner (75)

GAA: A. Stolarz (2.14)

Points: S. Reinhart (81)

Goals: S. Reinhart (39)

Assists: A. Barkov (51)

GAA: S. Bobrovsky (2.44)

Coaches:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Craig Berube (1st season)

Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (3rd season)