by Rod Pearson
Monday, May 08, 2023
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Venue: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125, Panthers +105; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
Bet365: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125, Panthers +105; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
BetMGM: Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125, Panthers +105; Over/Under: 6.5 goals
Season Record
Toronto Maple Leafs: 50-21-11 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)
Florida Panthers: 42-32-8 (4th place, Atlantic Division)
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Recent Form
Toronto Maple Leafs: 5-4-1 last 10
Florida Panthers: 7-3-0 last 10
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Preview and Analysis
The Maple Leafs are entering this game finishing the regular season with 111 points, a 50-21-11 record overall, and they were 23-13-5 in their road games this regular season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with all 3 losses coming against the Florida Panthers in their last 3 games, losing that last one on the road 3-2 in overtime. Erik Gustafsson and Sam Lafferty each scored 1 goal in that game. David Kämpf, Jake McCabe, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly each led the team in assists with 1 while Erik Gustafsson and David Kämpf each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Ilya Samsonov was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 0 goals on 8 shots with 8 saves and a 1.000 sv percentage before leaving the game injured and getting replaced by Joseph Woll who allowed 3 goals on 21 shots with 18 saves and a .857 save percentage. Their offense has scored 279 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 222 goals against them allowing 2.7 goals per game.
The Panthers are entering this game finishing the regular season with 92 points, a 42-32-8 record overall, and they were 23-13-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 6 game winning streak with wins coming against the Boston Bruins 3 games in a row and the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last 3 games, winning that last one at home 3-2 in OT. Anthony Duclair, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe each scored 1 goal in that game. Aaron Ekblad led the team in assists with 2 while Anthony Duclair led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 24 shots with 22 saves and a .917 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 266 goals this season averaging 3.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 213 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Leafs listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the Panthers and the Leafs for the 2nd round of the NHL Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers are entering this game with a 3-0 series lead after winning their 1st home game of the series and now have a chance to sweep the Leafs with another home win in game 4. The Leafs have been the better team in every game of this series but they haven't been able to win a game yet and it looked like they were on their way to winning game 3 but an injury to Samsonov derailed that as Joseph Woll was thrown into the action with no real playoff experience. Woll ended up allowing all 3 goals which lost them the game and it looks very bleak for the Leafs to come back and win this series now. That being said, the Leafs have still been the better team in every game and they are too good to get swept by the Panthers here so expect a big push back from them in this game and an offensive explosion to help secure at least 1 win in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Leafs to win this game and make the series lead 3-1 for the Panthers.
Maple Leafs Panthers Prediction: Our NHL Pick for Wednesday, May 10, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Leafs 6 Panthers 2.
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NHL Betting Trends
Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-22 (-18.8 units) on the moneyline after 1 or more consecutive unders. 19-16 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 8-2 UNDER after 3 consecutive division games. 25-15 UNDER revenging a close loss vs opponent of 1 goal or less.
Florida Panthers: 24-12 (+15.4 units) on the moneyline vs. division opponents. 8-1 (+11.2 units) on the moneyline after 3 consecutive division games. 7-0 UNDER in the second round of the playoffs. 19-7 UNDER after a 6 game unbeaten streak.
Key Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: I. Samsonov (G) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. M. Knies (LW) Mid May - Undisclosed. V. Mete (D) Mid May - Lower Body. M. Murray (G) Mid May - Concussion. B. McMann (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Muzzin (D) out for season - Neck. N. Robertson (LW) out for season - Shoulder.
Florida Panthers: R. Lomberg (LW) Mid May - Upper Body. S. Knight (G) Out indefinitely - Personal. P. Hornqvist (RW) out for season - Concussion.
Notable Quotes
“Got to win one game. That was the mission here tonight. Got to start with one and give yourself a chance. They're in full control here; it's up to us to make it uncomfortable for them and not go away. We still have tremendous belief in our group.” - Sheldon Keefe after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their game on Sunday, game 3 of this series.
“There's a lot of things going our way. We're just trying to take it day by day ... just doing the right things to make us successful.” - Aaron Ekblad after their win against the Leafs in their game on Sunday, game 3 of this series.
Starting Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
LW Bunting, Michael
C Matthews, Auston
RW Marner, Mitchell
LD McCabe, Jake
RD Brodie, TJ
G Samsonov, Ilya
Florida Panthers
LW Verhaeghe, Carter
C Barkov, Aleksander
RW Duclair, Anthony
LD Forsling, Gustav
RD Ekblad, Aaron
G Bobrovsky, Sergei
Statistical Leaders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Points: M. Marner (99)
Goals: W. Nylander (40)
Assists: M. Marner (69)
GAA: J. Alexander (0.00)
Florida Panthers
Points: M. Tkachuk (109)
Goals: C. Verhaeghe (42)
Assists: M. Tkachuk (69)
GAA: A. Lyon (2.89)
Coaches:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe (4th season)
Florida Panthers: Paul Maurice (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
