Texas State Bobcats vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/16/2023

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Venue: Holmes Convention Center, Boone, NC

Where to watch: ESPN+

DraftKings: Appalachian State -4

FanDuel: Appalachian State -4.5

BetMGM: Appalachian State -4.5

Caesars: Appalachian State -4.5

Texas State: 12-15 (5-9 Sun Belt)

Appalachian State: 14-13 (7-7 Sun Belt)

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Texas State: lost 70-68 vs. Old Dominion

Appalachian State: lost 74-57 at South Alabama

Sometimes you just get matchups in the sunbelt conference that may not jump off the page but from a betting standpoint it actually seems very interesting period the Appalachian State Mountaineers are going to try to avoid their fourth loss in five games when they host the Texas State Bobcats on Thursday and looking at it from a standpoint of how to handle this game, I do like the home favorite as they are only laying four points in this matchup.

 

Appalachian State is a run-of-the-mill team in the sunbelt. They're nowhere close to the likes of Southern Miss or even Marshall. A win would put them near the top half of the conference heading into the conference tournament which given how things happen at the drop of a dime every time with this it shows that Appalachian State might be a team worth looking at.

 

The Mountaineers don't have the firepower than most other teams would. They are led by Donovan Gregory who averages 12 points per game on 41.9% shooting. He also leads the team with 4.3 assists. In the last game out for Appalachian State, a 74-57 loss to South Alabama, Gregory finished with a team high 14 points but shot 5 of 15 to get there. Appalachian State shot just 37% from the floor while the defense gave up 59% shooting up from being on the road.

 

That's one of the things that I like about Appalachian State is that they are normally a defensive team and they are not going to win with a lot of offense. But if that team gets on the road, they tend to struggle. At home, Appalachian State is a little bit more feasible to handle. The Mountaineers averaged 70 points per game while giving up only 63, which is considered a big time differential especially in that conference. Whereas Texas State scores just 64.6 points per game and gives up 65.9.

 

Texas State is led by Mason Harrell who has a team lead of 15.9 points per game on just 41% shooting, but the guard makes 84.5% of his free throws which is where he probably makes the bulk of his offense. Texas State is coming off yet another loss on their Ledger. After losing for the seventh time in nine games, Texas State lost 70-68 to Old Dominion on Saturday, where Harold led the way with 17 points and five assists.

 

The underdog has covered in 11 of the last 15 meetings with one push so it's not like anything is out of the ordinary here. Texas State has failed to cover in four of its last five, while Appalachian State has failed to cover in three of its last four. But given that the underdog has been struggling heavily as of late and the home team is not, I will certainly trust that Appalachian State gets the job done here. Appalachian State 71, Texas State 64

Texas State is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less the past 3 seasons.

Texas State is 3-6 ATS after a home game this season.

Appalachian State is 7-1 ATS after an over this season.

Appalachian State is 7-8 ATS after a road loss the last 3 seasons.

PG: Mason Harrell

SG: Brandon Davis

SF: Jordan Mason

PF: Tyrel Morgan

C: Nate Martin

PG: Xavion Brown

SG: Terence Harcum

SF: Donovan Gregory

PF: Justin Abson

C: C.J. Huntley