Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/26/2025

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 26, 2025

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  FDSSUN, FDSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -101, Reds -121; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Reds -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +100, Reds -120; Over/Under:  9 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  53-50 (4th place, AL East)

Cincinnati Reds:  53-50 (3rd place, NL Central)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  3-7 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  6-4 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-50 record overall and have a road record of 22-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .728 OPS. Zack Littell is their starting pitcher on Friday while Ryan Pepiot is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 6-8 with a 3.59 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 1 BB with 8 SO on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Reds are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-50 record overall and have a home record of 28-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .713 OPS. Nick Martinez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-1 with a 2.13 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6 innings pitched against the New York Mets.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 53-50 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have also looked good in their own ballpark this year with their 28-22 home record. Meanwhile, the Rays have looked good in their games this season with their 53-50 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the AL East in a competitive division. They haven't been a great road team either with their 22-22 road record this season. The Rays haven't looked good lately either as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Reds are 6-4 and have been getting hot. The Reds also have the much better pitching matchup here and they can take advantage of that at home. The Reds are going with Abbott in this one and he has been their ace this season. He is 8-1 with a 2.13 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all season. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Rays are going with Pepiot in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 6-8 with a 3.59 ERA and hasn't been giving up a ton of runs in his starts this season, but the team hasn't had a ton of success with him either as he has been racking up some losses. He is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs and the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too. Abbott is always going to give the Reds their best chance to win games and they will bring their best effort here at home to take advantage of a slumping Rays team. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Rays Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 26, 2025 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Reds 5 Rays 1.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 105-100 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 56-44 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 72-50 (+17 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 28-8 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds: 104-107 (-14.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 108-111 (-4.1 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 59-61 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 9 to 9.5. 20-9 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better.

Tampa Bay Rays:  S. Fairchild (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. H. Kim (SS) Day To Day - Back. B. Lowe (2B) Ten Day IL - Foot. H. Bigge (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. R. Palacios (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. DeLuca (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. McClanahan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Triceps. A. Faedo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. N. Lavender (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Tough decision, certainly, but felt like it's best for him to get down there right now. He's got to get to work.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s loss against the White Sox in their game on Wednesday.

"I know the score ended up 5-0. That wasn't a 5-0 game. That was 1-0. [Lodolo] had to pitch through that for the majority of the game. I thought as the game went he got stronger which is a really good sign. [His] breaking ball has been a weapon. He holds his velocity the entire game. He threw strikes. He just really pitched a great game." - Terry Francona after his team’s win against the Nationals in their game on Wednesday.

Chandler Simpson (L) CF

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Jake Mangum (S) LF

Danny Jansen (R) C

Taylor Walls (S) SS

José Caballero (R) 2B

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Gavin Lux (L) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Austin Hays (R) DH

Jake Fraley (L) RF

Noelvi Marte (R) 3B

Jose Trevino (R) C

Will Benson (L) LF

Santiago Espinal (R) 1B

Batting Average:  Richie Palacios (.750)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (113)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (26)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (68)

Stolen Bases:  José Caballero (33)

Wins:  Shane Baz (8)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (17)

ERA:  Ian Seymour (0.00)

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (108)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (65)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (27)

Wins:  Andrew Abbott (8)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (21)

ERA:  Andrew Abbott (2.13)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (11th season)

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)