by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, August 1, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: FDSMW, PADRES.tv
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Cardinals +133, Padres -163; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Cardinals +135, Padres -160; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Cardinals +135, Padres -160; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
St Louis Cardinals: 55-55 (4th place, NL Central)
San Diego Padres: 60-49 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
St Louis Cardinals: 4-6 last 10
San Diego Padres: 6-4 last 10
St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Cardinals are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-55 record overall and have a road record of 23-31. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .709 OPS. Miles Mikolas was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Matthew Liberatore is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 3 SO on 6 hits through 4.1 IP against the San Diego Padres.
The Padres are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the New York Mets 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 60-49 record overall and have a home record of 34-18. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Cardinals on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .698 OPS. Yu Darvish was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Nick Pivetta is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6.1 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 60-49 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 34-18 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals haven't looked good in their games this season with their 55-55 record overall which has them near the bottom of the NL Central. They have also been a terrible road team this year with their 23-31 road record. They haven't looked good lately either, going 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Padres are 6-4, and the Padres have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of here. The Padres are going with Pivetta in this one and he has been their ace this season. He is 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. His team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme this year and he is coming off a great start in which he only gave up 2 earned runs. The Cardinals are going with Liberatore in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him this year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him on the road and the team has still lost 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Cardinals have also been trading away players so all signs point to the Padres in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Cardinals Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 1, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 7 Cardinals 1.
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MLB Betting Trends
St Louis Cardinals: 39-42 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 208-226 (-33.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 97-119 (-12.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 51-29 UNDER as an underdog of +125 to +175.
San Diego Padres: 40-25 (+14.4 units) on the moneyline when playing with a day off. 75-56 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 84-56 (+8.8 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season. 40-24 UNDER at home against left-handed starters.
Key Injuries
St Louis Cardinals: J. King (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. N. Gorman (2B) Ten Day IL - Back. L. Nootbaar (LF) Ten Day IL - Ribs. Z. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.
San Diego Padres: M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“I’ve showed up to the clubhouse early the last couple of days. And I was driving around the city a little bit and taking a few things in. But I’ve enjoyed my time here and St. Louis has been great to me. I’ve given everything I’ve had the last seven years here to try and help the team win.” - Ryan Helsley on being traded to the Mets.
“He’s a pillar of this organization and has been for a while. Made history today -- so he’s clearly a presence and a clear talent. That was on display today. And a guy that can go out and grab innings for us as a starter is worth its weight in Padre gold.” - Mike Shildt on Yu Darvish after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
St Louis Cardinals
Brendan Donovan (L) 2B
Iván Herrera (R) LF
Alec Burleson (L) 1B
Willson Contreras (R) DH
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Yohel Pozo (R) C
Jordan Walker (R) RF
Thomas Saggese (R) SS
Victor Scott II (L) CF
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) DH
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Jose Iglesias (R) SS
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Martín Maldonado (R) C
Statistical Leaders
St Louis Cardinals
Batting Average: José Fermín (.350)
Hits: Brendan Donovan (111)
Home Runs: Willson Contreras (14)
RBI: Willson Contreras (61)
Stolen Bases: Victor Scott (29)
Wins: Sonny Gray (10)
Saves: Ryan Helsley (21)
ERA: Riley O'Brien (1.67)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Bryce Johnson (.333)
Hits: Manny Machado (127)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (20)
RBI: Manny Machado (71)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (22)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (10)
Saves: Robert Suarez (30)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Managers:
St Louis Cardinals: Oliver Marmol (4th season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
