by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Jan 15, 2023
Time: Noon ET
Venue: XL Center, Hartford, CT
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UConn -14; UConn -1200, St. John’s +700
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: UConn -14.5
Caesars: UConn -14; UConn -1111, St. John’s +700
Season record
St. John’s: 12-6 (2-5 Big East)
No. 6 UConn: 15-3 (4-3 Big East)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
SJU - UConn preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
St. John’s: won 77-61 vs. Butler
UConn: lost 82-76 at No. 25 Marquette
In a battle of what is a mildly-struggling team against a team that can’t seem to win a game anymore, the Connecticut Huskies will look to get back on the winning track against the St. John’s Red Storm at XL Center in Hartford on Sunday.
The No. 6 Huskies are coming into this matchup having lost three of their last four with the most recent an 82-76 loss to the Marquette Golden Eagles on Wednesday. Perhaps home cooking is what the Huskies need, as the only win in the last four was at home against Creighton.
Donovan Clingan scored a team-high 20 points on 8 of 11 shooting in 21 minutes, and Alex Karaban had 17 points. Andre Jackson Jr. was held to just nine points on 4 of 7 shooting in 37 minutes.
“The way the games are played in nonconference and the NCAA Tournament are much different than the way they’re played in league play,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “The games are a lot more physical. We’re proving to be better suited for maybe those other types of games that are played a little bit differently, which makes me feel better about March, but it was scary, the amount of one-on-ones, being driven and scored on, the lack of physical toughness at the point of contact in some situations.”
Overall, UConn is 7-3 in their last 10 but have struggled heavily against the spread. The Huskies have failed to cover in five of the last six and they were favored in all of them. UConn was a 22-point favorite against Georgetown in an 11-point win, and a 12.5-point favorite in an 8-point victory against Villanova. In short, UConn is finding an identity right now with no end in sight.
Meanwhile, St. John’s is proving to once again be one of the more disappointing programs in the country. Despite coming off a 77-61 win over Butler on Jan. 10, the Red Storm had lost their last five and six of nine before finding a way to beat the Bulldogs as 3.5-point favorites.
St. John’s found a way to make their shots on Tuesday, making 53% of their field goal attempts. Joel Soriano led the way with 20 points (on 10 of 13 shooting) and 10 rebounds in the win. AJ Storr was next in line with 12 points in 20 minutes on just 4 of 7 shooting.
Not only has St. John’s been struggling to win games outright, the books haven’t been kind to them either. Prior to covering the last two — 6.5-point dogs in a 3-point loss to Providence, and laying the 3.5 against Butler — the Red Storm failed to cover in six of the last eight, including the previous four in a row.
For UConn, the goal is trying to stay afloat with Marquette, Providence and Xavier at the top of the Big East. The Huskies dropping to 4-3 in conference play has hindered the fact they’re No. 6 in the country for now. St. John’s, at 2-5 in conference play, is trying to get back to the middle of the table.
Prediction
The underdog has found a way to cover in the last four meetings, while the home team has covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings. If St. John’s has found a way to bounce back and stay competitive, and given UConn’s conference struggles, I can see the Red Storm covering with UConn winning outright. UConn 76, St. John’s 66
Betting trends
St. John’s is 21-39 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 3 straight games since 1997.
UConn is 24-9 ATS at home after failing to cover in 4 of 5 since 1997.
St. John’s is 6-0 ATS on the road after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 on the road the last 2 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
St. John’s:
PG: Andre Curbelo
SG: Posh Alexander
SF: Dylan Addae-Wusu
PF: Montez Mathis
C: Joel Siriano
UConn:
PG: Tristen Newton
SG: Jordan Hawkins
SF: Andre Jackson Jr.
PF: Alex Karaban
C: Adama Sanogo
Statistical leaders
St. John’s:
Points: Joel Siriano – 16.4
Rebounds: Joel Siriano – 12.0
Assists: Andre Curbelo – 5.2
UConn:
Points: Adama Sanogo – 17.4
Rebounds: Adama Sanogo – 6.7
Assists: Andre Jackson Jr. – 4.9
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
