by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 11, 2021
Game time: 2:30 p.m. ET, November 13, 2021
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Appalachian State -22
BetMGM: Appalachian State -22.5
Caesars: Appalachian State -22.5
Season record
South Alabama: 5-4 (2-4 Sun Belt)
Appalachian State: 7-2 (4-1 Sun Belt)
Al McMordie put forth a great week on the college gridiron with a 10-4-0 record and is 38-20-1 over the last month. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
South Alabama - Appalachian State preview and analysis
Last week
South Alabama: lost 31-24 at Troy
Appalachian State: won 48-14 at Arkansas State
The Appalachian State Mountaineers are still a ways out from clinching a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship game, but fortune remains on their side.
App State will try for their fourth straight victory on Saturday when they host the South Alabama Jaguars.
The Mountaineers are coming off a 48-14 victory over the Arkansas State Red Wolves that was actually close for a little bit. Arkansas State scored two touchdowns in four minutes to tie it 14-14 in the second quarter, but that’s all the Wolves got.
Quarterback Chase Brice threw for 163 yards and a touchdown, as well as an interception, but much like all season, the running game has carried the Mountaineers. Nate Noel had 122 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, while home-run hitter Camerun Peoples had 116 and a touchdown on 14 carries.
Appalachian State overwhelmed the Arkansas State offense to only 199 total yards and forced three turnovers. The Mountaineers doubled them up in first downs (28-13) and had an 11-minute advantage in time of possession.
Appalachian State’s games have been one-sided for the most part on both sides. Outside of the barn-burner against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, it’s either been a one-sided win or loss. The 28-point loss to the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns is a prime example of that, and we could be on a collision course for a rematch between the two for the conference title should Appalachian State run the table.
But the Mountaineers will need to get through South Alabama. The Jaguars have alternated wins and losses for the last five weeks after starting the season 3-1, and are coming off a 31-24 loss to the Troy Trojans.
Troy took a 31-14 lead into halftime after South Alabama scored the opening touchdown on a 4-yard run from Desmond Trotter. The quarterback was held to just 138 yards on 20 of 32 passing with two touchdowns and an interception.
But incumbent starting quarterback Jake Bentley did not play, and may not for the foreseeable future due to a torn MCL. That eliminated over 2,000 yards and almost half of them to leading receiver Jalen Tolbert. Down the pipeline is Jalen Wayne and Caullin Lacy, but no one is coming close to Tolbert’s 58 receptions and six touchdowns.
Prediction
South Alabama’s defense has, for the most part, been very good this season. It’s given up only 319 yards per game and only 202 through the air. Appalachian State’s offense is always one of the more balanced in the country, but the running attack is what makes the money. South Alabama gives up 117 rushing yards per game, but if Bentley can’t go, that defense may be on the field for most of the game. I think App State gets the win, but it won’t be by 21 for the cover. App State by 17
Betting trends
South Alabama is 0-4 ATS on the road this season.
South Alabama is 0-5 ATS after a game where they committed one turnover or less this season.
Appalachian State is 29-6 straight up in its last 35, but are 18-17 ATS.
The under is 11-2 for App State following a win of 10 or more in conference play.
Statistical leaders
South Alabama:
Passing: Jake Bentley -- 2,122 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Terrion Avery -- 474 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Jalen Tolbert -- 1,032 yards, 6 TD
Defense: A.J. DeShazor Jr. -- 45 tackles
Appalachian State:
Passing: Chase Brice -- 2,259 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Nate Noel -- 891 yards, 3 TD; Camerun Peoples -- 609 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Corey Sutton -- 711 yards, 5 TD
Defense: D’Marco Jackson -- 84 tackles -- 5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
