by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Feb 01, 2023
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Saint Mary's -13
FanDuel: Saint Mary's -12.5
BetMGM: Saint Mary's -13.5
Caesars: Saint Mary's -13
Season record
San Francisco: 15-9 (4-5 WCC)
No. 18 Saint Mary's: 19-4 (8-0 WCC)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
San Francisco - Saint Mary's preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
San Francisco: won 94-81 at San Diego
Saint Mary's: won 57-56 at BYU
The No. 18 Saint Mary’s Gaels are killing it at the right time, and they’ll be looking for their 11th straight victory when they host the San Francisco Dons on Thursday, two days for what will be the West Coast Conference’s Game of the Year.
The No. 18 Saint Mary’s Gaels are killing it at the right time, and they’ll be looking for their 11th straight victory when they host the San Francisco Dons on Thursday, two days for what will be the West Coast Conference’s Game of the Year.
But we’ll get to Saint Mary’s-Gonzaga when we get there. Right now, the Gaels are the top team in the conference and are trying to extend their conference record to 9-0 when they face a San Francisco team that is always dangerous. But Saint Mary’s is coming off a tough 57-56 win at BYU on Saturday thanks to a game-winning jumper from freshman Aidan Mahaney.
Logan Johnson scored 14 points, and Mahaney scored all 10 points in the second half to keep Saint Mary’s undefeated in conference play. Good enough for them to jump up four spots in the AP Top 25.
“I just wanted to give us a good look, look for the best shot,” Mahaney said. “It went up and it went in and then the rest is history.
“I think I could have played better tonight but for us to grind out a win. We highlight gritty as a word for our team, and that's kind of how I would define what happened.”
The Gaels had a 3-game ATS winning streak and a five-game ATS unbeaten streak snapped in the win over BYU as 6.5-point favorites. The total has gone 3-3 in the last six with the under cashing in two of the last three. Saint Mary’s can win in a myriad of ways. This is just another instance in which they can.
San Francisco is coming into this conference showdown on a three-game winning streak and has now put themselves at 4-5 in conference play to put them right back in the middle of the pack. Still a ways away from getting to the top, but one thing you can always count on the Dons is being seriously competitive.
The Dons are coming off a 94-81 win over San Diego on Saturday in which Khalil Shabazz scored a game-high 26 points, while Tyrell Roberts and Zane Meeks added 15 points each.
San Francisco has covered all three during this winning streak, ranging from 11-point favorites against Pacific and a 1-point favorite against BYU in which they won at home. This string of wins suddenly has them right back near the top of the conference and it makes for an intriguing subplot should this continue during tournament time.
Prediction
Much like the situation with Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s can’t look too far ahead of the showdown with the Zags on Saturday. San Francisco will bring it at both ends. Saint Mary’s at home is a hard place to win, though. Gaels win in a nailbiter. Saint Mary’s 80, San Francisco 78
Betting trends
San Francisco is 1-8 ATS off a road win against a conference rival the last 3 seasons.
San Francisco is 3-10 ATS off a road win the last 3 seasons.
San Francisco is 10-23 ATS after a game they covered the last 3 seasons.
Saint Mary's is 19-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more the last 3 seasons.
Saint Mary's is 24-14 ATs at home the past 3 seasons.
Saint Mary's is 4-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in 2 straight games the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
San Francisco:
PG: Tyrell Roberts
SG: Marcus Williams
SF: Khalil Shabazz
PF: Isaiah Hawthorne
C: Josh Kunen
Saint Mary's:
PG: Logan Johnson
SG: Aidan Mahaney
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Mitchell Saxen
Statistical leaders
San Francisco:
Points: Tyrell Roberts -- 15.5
Rebounds: Zane Meeks -- 6.0
Assists: Khalil Shabazz -- 3.2
Saint Mary's:
Points: Aidan Mahaney -- 14.7
Rebounds: Mitchell Saxen -- 8.2
Assists: Logan Johnson -- 3.8
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this San Francisco Dons - Saint Mary's Gaels prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
