San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/26/2025

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, July 26, 2025

Venue:  Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO

Where to Watch:  PADRES.tv, KFMB 8.1, FDSMW

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -164, Cardinals +134; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -165, Cardinals +135; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -165, Cardinals +135; Over/Under:  9 runs

San Diego Padres:  55-48 (2nd place, NL West)

St Louis Cardinals:  53-51 (4th place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

St Louis Cardinals:  3-7 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-48 record overall and have a road record of 24-30. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Cardinals on Saturday with the 2nd game still to be played on Friday. The Padres lost the series opener on Thursday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .691 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Friday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-4 with a 3.73 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 0 SO on 7 hits through 4.1 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinals are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-51 record overall and have a home record of 30-20. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Friday. The Cardinals won the 1st game of this series on Thursday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Miles Mikolas is their starting pitcher on Friday while Matthew Liberatore is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 walk with 0 strikeouts on 9 hits through 3 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 55-48 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 24-30 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have looked good in their games this season with their 53-51 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have also looked a lot better in their own ballpark this year with their 30-20 home record. The Cardinals took the 1st game of this series on Thursday, but they have still looked terrible lately as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games and just lost their last series to the worst team in baseball. The Padres are going to be looking to bounce back here and they have the better pitching matchup that they can take advantage of in this one. Vasquez is on the mound for the Padres here and he has looked good this season. He is 3-4 with a 3.73 ERA and the team has had a lot of success with him lately too. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 1 earned run and the team has won 5 games in a row now with him starting. The Cardinals are going with Liberatore in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs in his starts. The team has been having success with him lately as they have won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting, but he did give up 6 earned runs in his last start and giving up runs has been a common theme for him. The Padres have a big edge with their pitching staff in this one and have been the better team out of the All-Star break. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Padres Cardinals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 26, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Padres 7 Cardinals 2.

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San Diego Padres: 67-74 (+12.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 73-56 (+6 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 82-55 (+7.7 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season. 35-21 UNDER on the road vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

St Louis Cardinals: 206-222 (-30.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 109-103 (-17.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 38-40 (-4.5 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 25-16 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

St Louis Cardinals:  N. Gorman (2B) Ten Day IL - Back. L. Nootbaar (LF) Ten Day IL - Ribs. Z. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

“He did a pretty good job getting to two strikes tonight. He just made some mistakes with two strikes. A few too many mistakes, and they made him pay.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Cardinals in their game on Thursday.

“We needed it, especially after they punched early. To be able to do what we did in the second was extremely important, especially coming off that road trip. You wanted to kind of come out a little stronger. We needed the offense to get going.” - Oliver Marmol after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Thursday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Bryce Johnson (S) LF

Martín Maldonado (R) C

Brendan Donovan (L) 2B

Iván Herrera (R) DH

Alec Burleson (L) LF

Willson Contreras (R) 1B

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Masyn Winn (R) SS

Jordan Walker (R) RF

Pedro Pagés (R) C

Victor Scott II (L) CF

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.290)

Hits:  Manny Machado (114)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (19)

RBI:  Manny Machado (63)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (10)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (29)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Batting Average:  José Fermín (.368)

Hits:  Brendan Donovan (110)

Home Runs:  Willson Contreras (14)

RBI:  Willson Contreras (61)

Stolen Bases:  Victor Scott (26)

Wins:  Sonny Gray (10)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (20)

ERA:  Andre Granillo (1.08)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)

St Louis Cardinals: Oliver Marmol (4th season)