San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/24/2025

Game Time: 7:45 pm ET, Thursday, July 24, 2025

Venue:  Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, PADRES.tv, FDSMW

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +112, Cardinals -137; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +115, Cardinals -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +115, Cardinals -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  55-46 (2nd place, NL West)

St Louis Cardinals:  52-50 (3rd place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  6-4 last 10

St Louis Cardinals:  3-7 last 10

The Padres won their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1. They enter this game with a 55-46 record overall and have a road record of 24-28. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Cardinals on Thursday with the series finale of their series against the Miami Marlins still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres won the series opener of that series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 1 SO on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The Cardinals got swept in their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-0. They enter this game with a 52-50 record overall and have a home record of 29-20. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game of their series against the Colorado Rockies still to be played on Wednesday. The Cardinals won the 1st game of that series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .716 OPS. Andre Pallante is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Sonny Gray is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 walks with 5 strikeouts on 11 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 55-46 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 24-28 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have looked good in their games this season with their 52-50 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They have also looked a lot better in their own ballpark this year with their 29-20 home record. The Cardinals have been really cold coming out of the All-Star break though, going 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Padres are 6-4 and starting to get hot now. The Cardinals are going with Gray in this one and he has looked really good for them this season, but lately he hasn't looked as good. He is 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA and has been starting to give up more runs lately. He is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 8 earned runs and the Cardinals offense hasn't been good since coming out of the All-Star break so they could be in trouble if Gray has another bad start. The Padres are going with Darvish in this one and he hasn't looked good in his few starts this season. He is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA, but he is still coming back from an injury as he has not had many starts this season and he has been a really reliable starter for the Padres over the years. He was better in his last start too as he gave up 3 earned runs and he will be looking to have a better start now that the team is starting to get hot out of the All-Star break. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Padres Cardinals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 24, 2025 (7:45 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Cardinals 2.

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San Diego Padres: 67-73 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 112-106 (+4.1 units) on the moneyline in road games. 82-53 (+10.1 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season. 35-20 UNDER on the road vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

St Louis Cardinals: 205-221 (-29.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 108-103 (-18.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 96-98 (-40.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 25-15 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

St Louis Cardinals:  T. Saggese (2B) Day To Day - Undisclosed. N. Gorman (2B) Ten Day IL - Back. L. Nootbaar (LF) Ten Day IL - Ribs. Z. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

"There’s nuances of it -- the preparation, the strategy going into a game, the awareness to make adjustments during the game, the ability to give guys confidence, the ability to make a trip and say the right things. Those catchers have done a great job partnering with our pitching group. They’re a big reason why we sit there and have one of the best staffs.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Tuesday.

“The truth is I’ve been awful and I’m putting the team in terrible spots, giving up runs early and putting the [Cards’] batters in tough spots. Confidence, for sure, an all-time low. I’ve had lows and highs in this game and I’m just trying to be professional, show up every day and give it my best. The team deserves better and I’m trying to pick it up.” - Erick Fedde after their loss against the Rockies in their game on Tuesday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) DH

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) LF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Tyler Wade (L) 2B

Elias Díaz (R) C

Brendan Donovan (L) 2B

Iván Herrera (R) DH

Alec Burleson (L) LF

Willson Contreras (R) 1B

Nolan Arenado (R) 3B

Masyn Winn (R) SS

Jordan Walker (R) RF

Yohel Pozo (R) C

Victor Scott II (L) CF

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.333)

Hits:  Luis Arraez (111)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (18)

RBI:  Manny Machado (61)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (10)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (29)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Batting Average:  José Fermín (.368)

Hits:  Brendan Donovan (107)

Home Runs:  Willson Contreras (13)

RBI:  Willson Contreras (57)

Stolen Bases:  Victor Scott (25)

Wins:  Sonny Gray (9)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (19)

ERA:  Andre Granillo (1.35)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)

St Louis Cardinals: Oliver Marmol (4th season)