San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/23/2025

Game Time: 12:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  PADRES.tv, FDSFL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -144, Marlins +118; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -145, Marlins +120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -145, Marlins +120; Over/Under:  8 runs

San Diego Padres:  55-45 (2nd place, NL West)

Miami Marlins:  46-53 (3rd place, NL East)

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San Diego Padres:  7-3 last 10

Miami Marlins:  5-5 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-45 record overall and have a road record of 24-27. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .691 OPS. Stephen Kolek is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Dylan Cease is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 10 SO on 4 hits through 5.1 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-53 record overall and have a home record of 22-29. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Marlins lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .707 OPS. Edward Cabrera is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 4-9 with a 7.14 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 2 strikeouts on 8 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 46-53 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't even looked great in their own ballpark with their 22-29 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 55-45 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 24-27 road record this season. As bad as the Padres have been on the road this year, they did win the 1st game of this series and they are starting to get hot now as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are going to have Cease on the mound in this one and he hasn't looked great this season, but he is still the better option in this game. Cease is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA and the team has lost 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, but he is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs and he will be looking to that again here. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 4-9 with a 7.14 ERA and has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He gave up 4 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Marlins were hot going into the All-Star break, but they have cooled off now while the Padres are starting to get hot themselves, and the Padres have the better bullpen too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Padres Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 23, 2025 (12:10 pm ET start time) is Padres 8 Marlins 6.

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San Diego Padres: 107-76 (-4.8 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 79-73 (-20.2 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season. 66-48 (-11.7 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 32-17 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better.

Miami Marlins: 192-232 (+4.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 148-155 (+29.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 51-63 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 35-26 UNDER vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Miami Marlins:  E. Cabrera (SP) Day To Day - Elbow. J. Tinoco (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Norby (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“This team is built for the second half.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Monday.

“Max was going to tell me that they thought about drafting me, but then he didn't want to jinx it, so he ended up not saying anything, which I'm happy [about]. It was a big surprise. I didn't see this happening, but [I’m] very thankful. It's going to be great having Max and Drew around, guys that I already know, and good team chemistry we had at FSU, and bringing that here is going to be a big help.” - Joey Volini on getting drafted by the Marlins. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) LF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Jake Cronenworth (L) DH

Jose Iglesias (R) 2B

Martín Maldonado (R) C

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Jesús Sánchez (L) RF

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Kyle Stowers (L) LF

Liam Hicks (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernandez (R) DH

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Dane Myers (R) CF

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.333)

Hits:  Manny Machado (109)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (18)

RBI:  Manny Machado (60)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (10)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (29)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Rob Brantly (.429)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (99)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (22)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (60)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (17)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (6)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (8)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)