San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/01/2023

Game Time: 1:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 1, 2023

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  BSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -170, Reds +145; Over/Under:  11.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -170, Reds +150; Over/Under:  11.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -165, Reds +140; Over/Under:  11.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  37-44 (4th place, NL West)

Cincinnati Reds:  43-38 (1st place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  2-8 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  7-3 last 10

The Padres are entering this series on a 5 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates in their last series. They enter this game with a 37-44 record overall and have a road record of 17-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Seth Lugo is their starting pitcher on Friday while Michael Wacha is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 2 HR, and 2 BB with 0 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Reds are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-38 record overall and have a home record of 21-20. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .747 OPS. Graham Ashcraft is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Brandon Williamson is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 3 BB with 4 strikeouts on 2 hits through 2 innings played against the Baltimore Orioles.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have been terrible all season and they haven't been good in their games lately either but they have a chance to turn things around with a win in this game. They Reds have been rolling in their games lately but the Padres have Wacha starting here and he has been a solid starter all season. He was one of the best starters for the Red Sox last season and has been really underrated as he is also one of the best starters in the rotation for the Padres this season. He will give them a chance by keeping this hot Reds offense at bay and the Padres offense should be able to get a spark in this game with the Reds rookie starting. Williamson is on the mound here and he hasn't been great in his starts this season, giving up a ton of runs in his starts lately too. The Padres haven't been great on offense this year but they will take advantage of the scoring opportunities they get in this game and they badly need a win here too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.

Padres Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 1, 2023 (1:40 pm ET start time) is Padres 4 Reds 3.

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San Diego Padres: 37-44 (-21.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 6-11 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. MICHAEL WACHA is 18-10 OVER as a road favorite of -125 or more and 3-0 OVER when the total is 10 or higher.

Cincinnati Reds: 43-38 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 27-27 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 17-7 OVER when the total is 10 or higher. 24-15 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150.

San Diego Padres:  Y. Darvish (SP) day-to-day - Illness. R. Knehr (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. S. Wilson (SP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. M. Wacha (SP) day-to-day - Shoulder. R. Suarez (SP) Mid July - Arm. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. E. Rosario (3B) Mid July - Ankle.

Cincinnati Reds:  J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. B. Lively (RP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. T. Santillan (SP) Early July - Back. R. Sanmartin (SP) Early July - Elbow. C. Legumina (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. H. Greene (SP) Out indefinitely - Hip. N. Lodolo (SP) Early Aug - Calf. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Law (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. V. Gutierrez (SP) Mid July - Elbow. T. Antone (RP) Mid July - Elbow.

“Look, we have to put these things away and we have to be mentally tough. At some point in time, we have to start over and understand this isn't what we wanted. There's nothing we can do about it. We need to have a big second half.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Thursday.

"What a great game. Two great teams, two teams that are playing well. It’s no surprise it kept going back and forth like that. We feel fortunate that our players had the at-bats and made the pitches to get it done.” - David Bell after his team’s win against the Orioles in their game on Wednesday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) DH

Juan Soto (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Rougned Odor (L) RF

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Austin Nola (R) C

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) SS

Jonathan India (R) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B

Jake Fraley (L) RF

Joey Votto (L) DH

Spencer Steer (R) 1B

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

Will Benson (L) LF

Batting Average:  Alfonso Rivas (.286)

Hits:  Juan Soto (74)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)

RBI:  Juan Soto (41)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (14)

Wins:  Michael Wacha (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (18)

ERA:  Tom Cosgrove (0.53)

Batting Average:  TJ Friedl (.320)

Hits:  Spencer Steer (80)

Home Runs:  Spencer Steer (12)

RBI:  Jake Fraley (49)

Stolen Bases:  TJ Friedl (14)

Wins:  Ian Gibaut (8)

Saves:  Alexis Diaz (22)

ERA:  Ricky Karcher (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)

Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)