by Rod Pearson
Monday, Aug 04, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Where to Watch: MLBN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres -137, Diamondbacks +112; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres -135, Diamondbacks +115; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres -135, Diamondbacks +115; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 62-50 (2nd place, NL West)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 53-59 (4th place, NL West)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 7-3 last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3-7 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-50 record overall and have a road record of 26-31. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .700 OPS. JP Sears is their starting pitcher on Monday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 7 SO on 2 hits through 7 IP against the New York Mets.
The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Athletics 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-59 record overall and have a home record of 26-28. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .759 OPS. Brandon Pfaadt is their starting pitcher on Monday while Ryne Nelson is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 0 walks with 8 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 53-59 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 26-28 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 62-50 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 26-31 road record this year. The Padres have been getting really hot lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Diamondbacks are 3-7 and have been in a bit of a slump, but the Padres have still struggled more in road games this season and the Diamondbacks can take advantage of this pitching matchup. Darvish is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he is 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year. He has been giving up quite a few runs since coming back from his injury and the team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Diamondbacks are going with Nelson in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Diamondbacks can take advantage of this pitching matchup at home and they do have the stronger offense to help out too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.
Padres Diamondbacks Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 5, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 4 Padres 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 164-119 (-13.1 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 70-65 (-8.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 166-146 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 34-16 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 235-218 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 99-112 (+16.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 75-60 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 27-21 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Arizona Diamondbacks: G. Moreno (C) Sixty Day IL - Hand. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Thompson (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Scapular Strain. I. Vargas (2B) Ten Day IL - Foot. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“I really just want to contribute. We have a great team. We feel good about ourselves. I want to be a part of it.” - Dylan Cease after their win against the Cardinals in their game on Sunday.
“These guys deserve to have a good feeling. We came up here from Detroit and we were a little upset with what happened [a three-game sweep], so yeah, we’re going to try to build some positives from anything that we possibly can.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the A’s in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) DH
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B
Ramón Laureano (R) LF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll (L) RF
Blaze Alexander (R) 3B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) DH
Jake McCarthy (L) LF
Tyler Locklear (R) 1B
Alek Thomas (L) CF
Connor Kaiser (R) 2B
Jose Herrera (S) C
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Freddy Fermin (.429)
Hits: Manny Machado (129)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (20)
RBI: Manny Machado (72)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (22)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (11)
Saves: Robert Suarez (32)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Batting Average: Josh Naylor (.292)
Hits: Geraldo Perdomo (113)
Home Runs: Eugenio Suárez (36)
RBI: Eugenio Suárez (87)
Stolen Bases: Geraldo Perdomo (17)
Wins: Brandon Pfaadt (10)
Saves: Shelby Miller (10)
ERA: Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)
Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
