by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Jan 13, 2023
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA
Where to watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Saint Mary’s -7.5; Saint Mary’s -330, San Francisco +275
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: Saint Mary’s -7.5
Caesars: Saint Mary’s -7.5; Saint Mary’s -345, San Francisco +270
Season record
Saint Mary’s: 15-4 (4-0 WCC)
San Francisco: 12-8 (1-4 WCC)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
Saint Mary’s - San Francisco preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Saint Mary’s: won 76-62 vs. Loyola Marymount
San Francisco: lost 92-87 at Portland
This was supposed to be a premier game in the West Coast Conference, but things have taken a dip as of late for the San Francisco Dons. This is a prime game for the St. Mary’s Gaels to swoop in and keep the good times rolling.
The Gaels are coming into this game winners of six in a row and nine of their last 10. The last game was a 76-62 win over Loyola Marymount where they were 14-point favorites and saw a push on the books for the second time in the last eight games.
Everything that transpired came in the first half, and it led the way through St. Mary’s jumping out to a 35-21 halftime lead. While the offense took care of business, the defense stifled the LMU offensive attack. Aidan Mahaney led the way with 25 points on 10 of 20 shooting, and Logan Johnson added 19 points and six rebounds in the win.
The Gaels have long been the stepbrother in the WCC behind Gonzaga, who found a way to knock off BYU on Thursday. But while they’re off to a great start in the regular season, there’s only one thing that matters for the Gaels, and that’s what happens in March. What they do in a game against San Francisco won’t matter. We’ll evaluate St. Mary’s fully when they get to March and face Gonzaga.
You’d like to think San Francisco is on that level and would soon take that next step, and that appeared to be the case after wins over UNLV and Arizona State. Since that ASU win on Dec. 21, though, the Dons are 2-4 in their last six and have suddenly found themselves in freelfall mode after three losses in their last four games by single digits.
The latest was a 92-87 loss to Portland on Thursday as a 1-point favorite. The Dons shot well and got great performances from Khalil Shabazz (25 points, 7 rebounds) and Tyrell Roberts (24 points), but they fell behind too far in the first half to even let anything happen to get caught up.
The past couple of years have shown I want to trust San Francisco, but they have those instances at some points where things get out of hand. Quite frankly, I’m not sure if they’ll have enough to take down a St. Mary’s team that’s opening as 7.5-point favorites in this one, as expected.
Prediction
The Gaels have covered in three of their last five (3-1-1) and they are 5-0 ATS on the road in their last five after three straight home games. St. Mary’s tends to find a way to get things done against teams that want to perform better, but it’s about March. They should handle a slumping San Francisco team. Saint Mary’s 74, San Francisco 64
Betting trends
Saint Mary’s is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 overall.
The under is 4-1 in Saint Mary’s last five Saturday games.
San Francisco is 0-4 ATS after their last four saw them allowing 90 points the last game.
Favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Projected starting lineup
Saint Mary’s:
PG: Logan Johnson
SG: Aidan Mahaney
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Mitchell Saxton
San Francisco:
PG: Tyrell Roberts
SG: Khalil Shabazz
SF:Isaish Hawthorne
PF: Josh Kunen
C: Zane Meeks
Statistical leaders
Saint Mary’s:
Points: Aidan Mahney – 14.8
Rebounds: Mitchell Saxen – 8.5
Assists: Logan Johnson – 3.8
San Francisco:
Points: Khalil Shabazz – 15.7
Rebounds: Zane Meeks – 6.6
Assists: Khalil Shabazz – 3.3
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
