Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Pepperdine Waves: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/19/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Thursday, Jan 19, 2023
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
Where to watch: ESPNU

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: SMC -12
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: SMC -12.5
Caesars: SMC -12

Season record
Saint Mary’s: 16-4 (5-0 WCC)
Pepperdine: 7-12 (0-5 WCC)

We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.

Saint Mary’s - Pepperdine preview, prediction and analysis


Recent form
Saint Mary’s: won 78-61 at San Francisco
Pepperdine: lost 91-81 at BYU

The Saint Mary’s Gaels will look to keep their winning streak going against the Pepperdine Waves when the teams meet at Firestone Fieldhouse on Thursday.

The Gaels enter this game winners of seven in a row and are coming off a 78-61 win over the San Francisco Dons on Jan. 14. Only one of these wins in the last seven games were by single digits, as the Gaels have just dominated the competition as of late.

Logan Johnson led the way with 24 points, seven rebounds and six assists, while Aidan Mahaney had 21 points and five rebounds to pace Saint Mary’s. Kyle Bowen added 14 points while Mitchell Saxen also contributed his own with 13 points. The win moved Saint Mary’s to 16-4 and 5-0 in WCC play. There’s still the matter of Gonzaga at some point, but the Gaels are 9-1 in their last 10 and have gone 5-2-2 in their last nine against the spread.

Will they ever catch Gonzaga? Will it ever be a situation where the Gaels become the big brother instead of the little brother who gets picked on in March? Time will tell, but this is a strong start for Saint Mary’s and they have to feel good heading into this matchup

The Waves are entering this game on the complete opposite side of the spectrum. They’ve lost six in a rowand are coming off a 91-81 loss to BYU on Jan. 14. Unlike Saint Mary’s, Pepperdine’s losses have been close for the most part. They lost by 3 to San Diego, 5 to Pacific and 10 to Santa Clara and Iona.

There’s the occasional 23-point loss to Gonzaga, but of course that would tend to be the case.

Houston Mellette led Pepperdine with 19 points in the loss to BYU, while Maxwell Lewis also chipped in with 18 points. Pepperdine actually did well enough to win this game; they shot 52 percent from the floor and only turned the ball over 11 times. The difference was BYU had 32 free-throw attempts to Pepperdine’s 18. Usually if you’re a team that has to rely on offense to win, it’s always the free throws to doom them.

Pepperdine is the only team left in the WCC to not register a conference win. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga — as expected — are the only undefeated teams remaining in the WCC.

Prediction

When the Gaels play on a Thursday, they’ve been dominant at 13-2-1 in their last 16 Thursday games. On the road, Saint Mary’s has covered in four of their last five. The favorite has also gone 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. This doesn’t bode well for the home team and we should all expect the winning streak to be pushed further. Saint Mary’s 82, Pepperdine 70

Betting trends


Saint Mary’s is 31-19 ATS in all games the last two seasons.

Saint Mary’s is 86-54 ATS as a road favorite since 1997.

Saint Mary’s is 9-1 ATS after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds this season.

Pepperdine is 2-10 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 the last 2 seasons.

Projected starting lineup

Saint Mary’s:
PG: Logan Johnson
SG: Aidan Mahaney
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Mitchell Saxton

Pepperdine:
PG: Houston Mallette
SG: Mike Mitchell
SF: Maxwell Lewis
PF: Jevon Porter
C: Carson Basham

Statistical leaders

Saint Mary’s:
Points: Aidan Mahney – 14.8
Rebounds: Mitchell Saxen – 8.5
Assists: Logan Johnson – 3.8

Pepperdine:
Points: Maxwell Lewis – 19.6
Rebounds: Jevon Porter – 6.9
Assists: Mike Mitchell – 4.8

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Saint Mary’s - Pepperdine prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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