by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jul 04, 2023
Game Time: 9:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 4, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Sportsnet LA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Pirates +190, Dodgers -225; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Pirates +190, Dodgers -230; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Pirates +180, Dodgers -225; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Season Record
Pittsburgh Pirates: 39-44 (3rd place, NL Central)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 46-37 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Pittsburgh Pirates: 5-5 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 6-4 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Pirates are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 39-44 record overall and have a road record of 17-23. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the LA Dodgers on Tuesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 21st in the MLB with a .709 OPS. Mitch Keller is their starting pitcher on Monday while Luis Ortiz is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-3 with a 4.11 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 3 BB with 0 Ks on 6 hits through 4.2 IP against the San Diego Padres.
The Dodgers are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-37 record overall and have a home record of 24-15. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .772 OPS. Michael Grove is their starting pitcher on Monday while rookie pitcher Emmet Sheehan is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 5 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers haven't been bad this season but they haven't been their usual selves as they trail the Diamondbacks for 1st place in the NL West. They do have a really good offense but they haven't been good in their road games and just lost a series to the Royals who are one of the worst teams in the MLB. That series loss is inexcusable for the Dodgers and now that they are back at home where they have been a lot better this season and facing a slumping Pirates team that has been terrible lately, they have to sweep this series at home or they are going to struggle to win their division if they can't beat up on bad teams. They do have Sheehan starting in this game and even though he is in his rookie season with few starts under his belt, he has been lights out in his few starts and will continue to pitch well at home as he shuts down this cold Pirates lineup. The Pirates have Ortiz on the mound here but he wasn't great in his last start and he has been starting to slip in his starts lately too. The Dodgers have struggled at times but they still have a really good offense and they should have no trouble burying the Pirates in runs in this game at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Pirates Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 4, 2023 (9:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 7 Pirates 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates: 7-18 (-10.1 units) on the moneyline after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games. 25-33 (-6.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 15-9 OVER after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games. 12-6 OVER against NL West opponents.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 36-23 (+4.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 144-65 (+11.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 15-8 OVER against NL Central opponents. 35-22 OVER against right-handed starters.
Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Pirates: J. Bae (SS) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Choi (1B) Mid July - Achilles. W. Crowe (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. J. Hernandez (RP) Mid July - Calf. K. Hayes (3B) Mid July - Back. V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Zastryzny (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: D. Hudson (RP) Mid July - Knee. C. Taylor (SS) Mid July - Knee. C. Kershaw (SP) Ques Mon - Shoulder. S. Miller (RP) Late July - Neck. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Thompson (LF) Out indefinitely - Oblique. N. Syndergaard (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. May (SP) Late July - Elbow. T. Cyr (RP) Late July - Shoulder. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Mid July - Oblique. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“It’s disappointing to put us in that position, especially after we had scored two runs and put us in position to get ahead and to win the game. Then we go out there and give it up. That wasn’t in the playbook.” - Rich Hill after their loss against the Brewers in their game on Sunday.
“We just didn't play well and they played better, quite frankly. Those guys just outplayed us. It's a different brand of baseball as far as putting the ball in play, hitting behind runners, stealing bases. They were excellent in situational hitting. To be quite honest, we didn't keep up. That's how they won the series.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s loss against the Royals in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jack Suwinski (L) CF
Bryan Reynolds (S) LF
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Josh Palacios (L) RF
Nick Gonzales (R) 2B
Tucupita Marcano (L) SS
Jared Triolo (R) 3B
Austin Hedges (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Max Muncy (L) 3B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
David Peralta (L) LF
Jason Heyward (L) RF
Miguel Vargas (R) 2B
James Outman (L) CF
Austin Barnes (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average: Drew Maggi (.333)
Hits: Ke'Bryan Hayes (73)
Home Runs: Jack Suwinski (17)
RBI: Carlos Santana (43)
Stolen Bases: Ji Hwan Bae (20)
Wins: Mitch Keller (9)
Saves: David Bednar (16)
ERA: Yerry De Los Santos (1.13)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Freddie Freeman (.315)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (104)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (22)
RBI: Mookie Betts (56)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (11)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (11)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
