Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/07/2023

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, July 7, 2023

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  BSAZ

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +170, D-Backs -200; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +170, D-Backs -200; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +170, D-Backs -210; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  40-46 (4th place, NL Central)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  50-37 (1st place, NL West)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10

The Pirates entered their last series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1. They enter this game with a 40-46 record overall and have a road record of 18-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers still to be played on Thursday. They also lost the series opener and the 3rd game of that series on Monday and Wednesday but won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .712 OPS. Johan Oviedo is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Rich Hill is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-8 with a 4.50 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 8 Ks on 3 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Diamondbacks entered their last series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1. They enter this game with a 50-37 record overall and have a home record of 24-22. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday with the 3rd game of their series against the New York Mets still to be played on Thursday. They also lost the 1st game and the 2nd game of that series on Tuesday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .759 OPS. Ryne Nelson is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Zac Gallen is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-3 with a 3.15 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 BB with 12 strikeouts on 5 hits through 7 innings played against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have been rolling this season with one of the best offenses in the MLB and they also lead the NL West with the best record, trying to keep their lead in 1st place. The Pirates did get off to a really hot start this season but they have cooled off a lot since then as they have slipped back under .500 for the season and have one of the worst offenses in the league once again. The D-Backs not only have a great offense, but they also have their ace Gallen on the mound here and he has been great all season but has been even better in his home starts as he does not give up many runs there. He won't have trouble shutting down this cold Pirates offense and the D-Backs offense will have no problems putting up runs on Hill who is starting for the Pirates. Hill hasn't been great this season with the number of runs he has been giving up in his starts and he is going to struggle to keep such a strong offense off the board here on the road. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game and on the runline.

Pirates Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 7, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 9 Pirates 1.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 17-27 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 26-35 (-5.9 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 20-13 OVER after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 14-6 OVER against NL West opponents. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-37 (+16.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 9-0 (+9 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -150 or more. 8-4 OVER against NL Central opponents. 

Pittsburgh Pirates:  R. Zastryzny (RP) Mid July - Forearm. J. Bae (SS) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Choi (1B) Mid July - Achilles. W. Crowe (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. J. Hernandez (RP) Mid July - Calf. K. Hayes (3B) Mid July - Back. V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Kelly (SP) Late July - Calf. C. Sulser (RP) Mid July - Shoulder. M. Melancon (RP) Late July - Shoulder. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

“July Fourth baseball is always lit, and to have a comeback like that with the boys and be able to finish it off is a blessing. It just shows the boys if you keep working hard, you keep trusting in your processes, you keep grinding and keep staying resilient, good things happen.” - Josh Palacios after their win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Tuesday.

“We grinded through it. We were a swing away from tying the game, a swing away from winning the game despite some really rugged circumstances that got us to that point.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Tuesday.

Andrew McCutchen (R) DH

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Henry Davis (R) RF

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Jack Suwinski (L) CF

Nick Gonzales (R) 2B

Tucupita Marcano (L) SS

Jared Triolo (R) 3B

Austin Hedges (R) C

Geraldo Perdomo (S) 2B

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Corbin Carroll (L) LF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) DH

Jake McCarthy (L) RF

Carson Kelly (R) C

Nick Ahmed (R) SS

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Batting Average:  Drew Maggi (.333)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (75)

Home Runs:  Jack Suwinski (19)

RBI:  Carlos Santana (46)

Stolen Bases:  Ji Hwan Bae (20)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (9)

Saves:  David Bednar (16)

ERA:  Yerry De Los Santos (0.90)

Batting Average:  Emmanuel Rivera (.309)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (87)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (18)

RBI:  Christian Walker (57)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (24)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (10)

Saves:  Andrew Chafin (8)

ERA:  Kevin Ginkel (2.56)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)