by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Where to watch: ACC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: North Carolina -8.5
FanDuel: North Carolina -8.5
BetMGM: North Carolina -8.5
Caesars: North Carolina -8.5
Season record
Pittsburgh: 15-7 (8-3 ACC)
North Carolina: 15-6 (7-3 ACC)
We’re nearing the halfway mark of the college basketball season and it’s been quite the ride so far. Will Rogers is going hard in the last 30 days with a 16-10-1 run, while Kyle Hunter has also had a strong run of form as of late at 28-24-0 (+$1,700). If they’ve been killing it as much as they were in the first half, what does the second half have in store? The only way you’re going to find out is by staying locked on bigal.com and following what our champion handicappers are up to heading into the second half. Trust us, you want to know.
Pittsburgh - North Carolina preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Pittsburgh: won four of five; won 71-68 vs. No. 20 Miami (FL)
North Carolina: won four straight; won 72-68 at Syracuse
Two of the hottest teams in the ACC, and top four in the conference, will face off on Wednesday when the Pittsburgh Panthers face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday at the Dean Smith Center.
Two of the hottest teams in the ACC, and top four in the conference, will face off on Wednesday when the Pittsburgh Panthers face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday at the Dean Smith Center.
North Carolina is coming into this game with a four-game winning streak and is coming off a 72-68 win at Syracuse eight days ago. The reigning National Semifinalists improved to 7-3 in the conference and are 2.5 games back of first-place Clemson.
Pete Nance scored a game-high 21 points and had three steals while playing all 40 minutes, while Armando Bacot had 18 points and eight rebounds on 8 of 15 shooting. The Tar Heels were able to win the game despite shooting 44.8 percent from the floor but went to the free-throw line 23 times compared to Syracuse’s three. Yes, three total.
The Tar Heels haven’t been the best spread team as of late, failing to cover in seven of the last 10, including the 4.5 they put down on Syracuse and failed to cover by a half point. They did cover -6.5 against North Carolina State, but between that and covering -13 against Louisville, it hasn’t been that impressive.
Pittsburgh has won four of five after losing two straight and is entering Chapel Hill off a 71-68 win against the Miami Hurricanes at home to improve to 8-3 in the ACC. They have the half-game lead over the Tar Heels for third place and still are within striking distance of Virginia and Clemson.
Pitt rallied from down five at halftime and won the game despite shoting just 40 percent from the floor. Blake Hinson finished with a game-high 21 points, and Jamarius Burton finished with 19 points and 10 rebounds (and seven assists) to help pace the Pittsburgh offense despite the rough shooting night.
Pittsburgh ended a two-game ATS losing streak with the 1.5 points it was given against Miami for the outright minor upset. The Panthers had covered in their previous three and are on a six-of-seven run covering over the stretch of their last 10 games.
Prediction
The Panthers have won the last five meetings, including sweeping the season series last year as major underdogs both at home and on the road. There’s a blue print to beat the Tar Heels, and it starts with their more leaky defense. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Pittsburgh get the points and go on to win. Pittsburgh 75, North Carolina 72
Betting trends
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS on the road this season.
Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 in the last 3 seasons.
Pittsburgh is 22-13 ATS off a win the last 3 seasons.
North Carolina is 11-3 ATS when revenging a road loss the last 3 seasons.
North Carolina is 3-12 ATS after four straight games as a favorite the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Pittsburgh:
PG: Nelly Cummings
SG: Greg Elliott
SF: Jamarius Burton
PF: Blake Hinson
C: Federiko Federiko
North Carolina:
PG: R.J. Davis
SG: Caleb Love
SF: Leaky Black
PF: Pete Nance
C: Armando Bacot
Injury report
Pittsburgh: William Jeffress (toe, out), Dior Johnson (suspension)
North Carolina: Puff Johnson (knee, questionable)
Pittsburgh: William Jeffress (toe, out), Dior Johnson (suspension)
North Carolina: Puff Johnson (knee, questionable)
Statistical leaders
Pittsburgh:
Points: Blake Hinson -- 16.3
Rebounds: Blake Hinston -- 6.5
Assists: Jamarius Burton -- 4.6
North Carolina:
Points: Armando Bacot -- 17.9
Rebounds: Armando Bacot -- 11.4
Assists: R.J. Davis -- 3.1
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Pittsburgh Panthers - North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college basketball projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
