by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Mar 05, 2023
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Mavs -1.5; DAL -120, PHX +100; O/U 233.5
FanDuel: Mavs -1; DAL -112, PHX +104; O/U 232.5
BetMGM: Mavs -1.5; DAL -120, PHX +100; O/U 232.5
Caesars: Mavs -1.5; DAL -120, PHX +100; O/U 232.5
Season record
Suns: 35-29
Mavs: 33-31
The All-Star break is over in the NBA and it's time to get on the horse and finish up the final home stretch of the season. Big trades, uncertainty, and absolute hilarity across the board all gearing up for the final home stretch of this season. You know who is also gearing up for the home stretch? Our champion handicappers at bigal.com who are ready to win their way all the way to the playoffs. There's a lot going on that we can't wait for in these final 23-25 games and you're going to need every bit of hardcore analysis you can get from this group. Just in the last 30 days we've had some big winners. Doc's Sports has posted a 16-6-0 record in the last month (+$9,200). AAA Sports has killed it at 17-8-0, and then Al McMordie with a dominant 20-11-1 mark over the last 30 days. Everything you need to know and more about what's going on this league and sports in general will be a fun finish to the end. All you have to do is go to bigal.com and find our Best Bets page and put forth something that only you think is good. Here's a hint: Go to the bigal.com website and happy betting!
Suns - Mavs preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Suns: won 125-104 at Bulls
Mavs: won 133-126 vs. 76ers
Well, the day is here much sooner than I think anyone anticipated. Kevin Durant vs. Kyrie Irving, one more time. What a game this should be with the Dallas Mavericks hosting the Phoenix Suns in a fun matinee on Sunday that has storylines galore.
Who are we kidding? There’s only one storyline we’re getting out of this. It could be a Western Conference Finals preview. It could be another playoff rematch in general. But who cares right now? It’s Kyrie vs. KD for the first time in the Western Conference.
Durant and the Suns are playing the second night of a back-to-back after beating the Chicago Bulls 125-104 in what was no chance for the home team. Durant finished with 20 points, nine rebounds and six assists after finishing with 23 against Charlotte in his return to the lineup/debut on Wednesday.
"He's just being himself," Devin Booker said of Durant in a postgame interview with Bally Sports Arizona following Friday's win. "That's what we need from him. He's on a minute restriction, and he's still getting to it. The more aggressive he is -- you see them doubling him tonight -- just freed up shots for everybody."
Booker has benefitted the most with Durant’s addition. After going for 37 points against the Hornets, he followed that with a game-high 35 against Chicago. Josh Okogie chipped in with 25 points in the win over Chicago.
“We've got a lot of big names,” Durant said. “We've got a lot of guys that have done so much in this league so far. But it's about how we come together as a group, and I think this is a tightknit group, a tight-knit organization. We'll figure it out along the way.”
The Suns have covered in three straight and go back to a 5-1-1 run in their last seven games. They’ve been comfortable favorites in their last two with Durant in the lineup, yet only 3.5 in this one. Against Dallas, the Suns will be a slight underdog with the back-to-back.
And if you look at the Mavs this year from a favorite standpoint, this is not the most ideal situation. They’ve actually been one of the worst in the league in being favored at home and not delivering. But there’s reason for excitement with the Mavs after knocking off the Philadelphia 76ers 133-126 on Thursday behind the dominant offensive duo in Dallas. Irving had 40 points, and Luka Doncic chipped in with 42 points — the first Mavs teammates to go for 40 in the same game — in the win over the Sixers.
"They understand they're the leaders of the team," Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said in his postgame press conference. "They set the tone, not just finding each other, but playing off one another (and) their gravity being able to find their teammates."
While that might be the case, Dallas still hasn’t put anything worthy together as of late. Since the Irving trade, they are 4-5 overall, and only 2-4 with Doncic and Irving together. They are fine; it’s the rest of the team not providing any defensive help. That’s how bad it is.
Prediction
I have a big fear of the Suns running Dallas out of the building because they don’t have the perimeter defenders to stop them all. If the Mavs can find a way to get this one, it’ll be one hell of a statement. I can’t see it though. Suns 130, Mavs 125
Betting trends
Suns are 12-11 ATS as an underdog this season.
Suns are 59-33 ATS after covering 2 of 3 the last 3 seasons.
Mavs are 14-28 ATS as a favorite this season.
Mavs are 10-17 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Projected starting lineup
Suns:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Josh Okogie
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Deandre Ayton
Mavs:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Josh Green
PF: Reggie Bullock
C: Dwight Powell
Injury report
Suns: Deandre Ayton (knee, questionable), Terrence Ross (knee, probable)
Mavs: Davis Bertans (calf, probable), Maxi Kleber (hamstring, probable)
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Phoenix Suns - Dallas Mavericks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
