Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2023

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Venue:  Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +120, Rays -140; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +120, Rays -140; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Phillies +120, Rays -140; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Philadelphia Phillies:  44-39 (3rd place, NL East)

Tampa Bay Rays:  57-30 (1st place, AL East)

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Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  5-5 last 10

The Phillies are entering this series off of a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-39 record overall and have a road record of 22-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Rays on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .747 OPS. Ranger Suárez was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 7-5 with a 4.51 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 3 BB with 4 Ks on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Chicago Cubs.

The Rays are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-30 record overall and have a home record of 34-10. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .798 OPS. Rookie pitcher Taj Bradley was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Zach Eflin is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 9-3 with a 3.29 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 7 strikeouts on 7 hits through 7 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have been having a great year as they lead the AL East with the best record and also have one of the best offenses in the league. They also have one of the best home records in the MLB this season and as good as this Phillies team has been starting to play lately, they will struggle on the road here against one of the best teams in baseball right now. The Rays have been nothing but better in their home games this year and that includes their starter Eflin who will be starting in this game. Eflin has been a solid starter for the Rays all season as he hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts but he has been giving up even less runs in his home starts and will be looking to have a big day against his old team here. The Phillies are going with their ace Nola on the mound here but he has not been pitching like an ace this season. Nola has been giving up a ton of runs in his starts all year and he has also been doing it in his starts lately which is going to be an issue here against one of the best offenses in the MLB. The Rays are going to get after Nola for some runs in this game and they will have another dominant home win where they have been a better team all season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game.

Phillies Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 4, 2023 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 6 Phillies 3.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 9-18 (-7.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 5-8 (-7.2 units) on the moneyline after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 11-5 OVER after a loss by 2 runs or less. AARON NOLA is 13-7 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150.

Tampa Bay Rays: 57-30 (+16 units) on the moneyline in all games. 34-10 (+17.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 29-14 OVER in home games. 19-10 OVER against NL East opponents. 

Philadelphia Phillies:  N. Song (SP) Mid July - Back. S. Dominguez (RP) Mid July - Oblique. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

Tampa Bay Rays:  I. Paredes (3B) Ques Tues - Ribs. S. McClanahan (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Lowe (2B) Mid July - Back. J. Fleming (SP) Late July - Elbow. A. Kittredge (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. D. Rasmussen (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. G. Cleavinger (RP) out for season - Knee. J. Springs (RP) out for season - Elbow. S. Baz (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“When you've got them down, you've got to put the hammer down." - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Nationals in their game on Sunday.

“(I would) like to think that if we’re in that position again, we’ll find a way to win.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s loss against the Mariners in their game on Sunday.

Kyle Schwarber (L) LF

Trea Turner (R) SS

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryce Harper (L) DH

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Darick Hall (L) 1B

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Josh Lowe (L) RF

Wander Franco (S) SS

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Luke Raley (L) 1B

Harold Ramirez (R) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Francisco Mejia (S) C

Manuel Margot (R) CF

Vidal Brujan (S) 2B

Batting Average:  Nick Castellanos (.316)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (101)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (22)

RBI:  Alec Bohm (54)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (18)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (9)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (12)

ERA:  Jose Alvarado (1.48)

Batting Average:  Yandy Diaz (.318)

Hits:  Wander Franco (90)

Home Runs:  Jose Siri (16)

RBI:  Randy Arozarena (58)

Stolen Bases:  Wander Franco (26)

Wins:  Shane McClanahan (11)

Saves:  Jason Adam (11)

ERA:  Chase Anderson (0.00)

Managers:

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (9th season)