by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 23, 2023
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Where to watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Saint Mary's -19
FanDuel: Saint Mary's -18.5
BetMGM: Saint Mary's -19.5
Caesars: Saint Mary's -19
Season record
Pacific: 13-16 (6-8 WCC)
No. 15 Saint Mary's: 24-5 (13-1 WCC)
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Pacific - Saint Mary's preview, prediction and analysis
The Saint Mary's Gaels will try for their fourth straight win and can inch closer to clinching the WCC regular season conference championship when they host the Pacific Tigers in Moraga on Thursday.
The Gaels are closing in on the best regular season in school history with two games remaining and have the conference title within their grasp before taking on Gonzaga later this weekend. Until then, it's honoring the seniors for the final time before taking on the Zags.
Saint Mary's is coming off a 71-65 win over BYU in what was a much needed return home after a three-game road trip that included Saint Mary's first conference loss of the season, 78-74 to Loyola Marymount. Logan Johnson scored 27 points, and Aidan Mahaney had 16 points to help Saint Mary's get the win after shooting 50 percent from the floor.
“I was a little nervous about this game being a home game, late in the season. We needed it,” coach Randy Bennett said. “We needed it for a lot of reasons. Just essentially we needed just this game. It counts as one. It was an important game.”
Saint Mary's has all the cards here but can't afford to lose this one. The Gaels are ahead of Gonzaga by one game for first place in the conference. Should Gonzaga take care of business on Thursday, the winner-take-all situation of that game is going to be so much fun this weekend.
“I try to pick my spots and I felt like I wasn’t being myself in San Diego,” Johnson said. “It’s always a goal to be more aggressive. I do a great job of scoring in transition and my teammates do a great job of finding me in transition. So whenever I can find those gaps and be aggressive and play my brand of basketball, which my teammates and coaches encourage me to do, there's no stopping or telling what can happen.”
Pacific is coming off yet another loss and dropped to 6-8 in conference play with a 90-88 loss to that same Loyola Marymount team that has been making waves as of late. Judson Martindale had 19 points and led the way for a Pacific team that shot 57 percent. They just had literally no answer for LMU guard Cam Shelton going off for 40 points.
Pacific isn't going to do much come conference tournament time. They are three games below .500 for a reason. No consistency whatsoever.
Prediction
I don't particularly see an outright win, but this has a cover written all over it. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Gaels take their foot off a bit late and the Tigers storm for a last minute cover. Saint Mary's 86, Pacific 70
The Gaels are closing in on the best regular season in school history with two games remaining and have the conference title within their grasp before taking on Gonzaga later this weekend. Until then, it's honoring the seniors for the final time before taking on the Zags.
Saint Mary's is coming off a 71-65 win over BYU in what was a much needed return home after a three-game road trip that included Saint Mary's first conference loss of the season, 78-74 to Loyola Marymount. Logan Johnson scored 27 points, and Aidan Mahaney had 16 points to help Saint Mary's get the win after shooting 50 percent from the floor.
“I was a little nervous about this game being a home game, late in the season. We needed it,” coach Randy Bennett said. “We needed it for a lot of reasons. Just essentially we needed just this game. It counts as one. It was an important game.”
Saint Mary's has all the cards here but can't afford to lose this one. The Gaels are ahead of Gonzaga by one game for first place in the conference. Should Gonzaga take care of business on Thursday, the winner-take-all situation of that game is going to be so much fun this weekend.
“I try to pick my spots and I felt like I wasn’t being myself in San Diego,” Johnson said. “It’s always a goal to be more aggressive. I do a great job of scoring in transition and my teammates do a great job of finding me in transition. So whenever I can find those gaps and be aggressive and play my brand of basketball, which my teammates and coaches encourage me to do, there's no stopping or telling what can happen.”
Pacific is coming off yet another loss and dropped to 6-8 in conference play with a 90-88 loss to that same Loyola Marymount team that has been making waves as of late. Judson Martindale had 19 points and led the way for a Pacific team that shot 57 percent. They just had literally no answer for LMU guard Cam Shelton going off for 40 points.
Pacific isn't going to do much come conference tournament time. They are three games below .500 for a reason. No consistency whatsoever.
Prediction
I don't particularly see an outright win, but this has a cover written all over it. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Gaels take their foot off a bit late and the Tigers storm for a last minute cover. Saint Mary's 86, Pacific 70
Betting trends
Pacific is 11-27 ATS after an over the last 3 seasons.
Pacific is 9-19 ATS as a road underdog the last 3 seasons.
Pacific is 35-17 ATS after allowing 75 points in 2 straight games since 1997.
Saint Mary's is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more this season.
Saint Mary's is 25-16 ATS at home the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Pacific:
PG: Moe Odum
SG: Jordan Ivy-Curry
SF: Luke Avdalovic
PF: Judson Martindale
C: Keylan Boone
Saint Mary's:
PG: Logan Johnson
SG: Aidan Mahaney
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Mitchell Saxen
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
