by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game time: Noon ET
Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oklahoma -6
BetMGM: Oklahoma -6
Caesars: Oklahoma -6
Season record
No. 8 Oklahoma: 9-0 (6-0 Big 12)
No. 12 Baylor: 7-2 (4-2 Big 12)
*College Football Playoff rankings
Al McMordie put forth a great week on the college gridiron with a 10-4-0 record and is 38-20-1 over the last month. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Oklahoma - Baylor preview and analysis
Last week
Oklahoma: Off (won 52-21 vs. Texas Tech on Oct. 30)
Baylor: lost 30-28 at TCU
Perhaps this is the week the Oklahoma Sooners are finally exposed.
The undefeated Sooners will hit the road for perhaps their most difficult road test this season when they take on the Baylor Bears in Waco on Saturday.
Oklahoma has glided, very carefully, to a 9-0 start but not well enough to be considered for the College Football Playoffs. As the first batch of rankings unfolded, the Sooners are at No. 8 and need some serious help if they do end up running the table.
But we will give credit where it’s due: The last four weeks have been much better ever since Caleb Williams became the full-time starting quarterback, replacing Spencer Rattler. Williams, the freshman from Washington DC, has thrown for 1,189 yards, 14 touchdowns and only one interception.
There’s still that inkling that Oklahoma will slip up at some point, but given it’s a freshman quarterback instead of a fraudulent Heisman Trophy winner under center, there’s reason for pause and reconsideration.
And guaranteed that if Rattler was the quarterback last week against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, it would’ve been a 3-point final.
Williams was spectacular, going 23 of 30 for 402 yards and six touchdowns with Oklahoma jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead and easily covering the 19-point spread. Leading receiver Marvin Mims caught only four passes but they went for 135 yards and two touchdowns.
The Oklahoma defense didn’t record a single sack but didn’t need to. Quarterback Donovan Smith had an efficient 17 of 22 game for 192 yards, but only threw one touchdown and one interception. Running back Xavier White led the way with 42 yards and a touchdown. You see the discrepancy here.
But this matchup against Baylor is going to be telling for a lot of reasons. Can Oklahoma win a big game on the road? Can Baylor show last week against the TCU Horned Frogs was a fluke?
We had to expect TCU to come out strong in their first game since firing head coach Gary Patterson, but not to this extent. TCU outgained Baylor 562-393 and yet still only won by two points.
Quarterback Gerry Bohanon had a rare off day throwing for 214 yards and three touchdowns, but two costly interceptions that allowed TCU to pull off the home upset. Abram Smith, however, continues to be one of the best running backs in the country with a 125-yard performance on only 18 carries.
Running the ball will be a tall order for Baylor this weekend, given that Oklahoma allows only 111 rushing yards per game. The Sooners spend so much time trying to stop the run that they allow the secondary to get beat for 272 yards per game through the air. If Baylor is going to win this week, Bohanon needs to play better and outduel Williams.
Baylor’s defense has been consistent all season; last week was a rare off week. This is a unit that allows only 20.6 points per game and 364 total yards. Coming back home, it should be a bounce-back effort.
Prediction
I will continue to stick with this until Oklahoma proves me wrong. This is the game Oklahoma needs to prove it is a top team. Going into a hostile environment with a freshman quarterback against a really good defense, this is the time for Oklahoma to shut the doubters up. That being said, Baylor gets it done and provides some chaos at the top of the Big 12. Baylor by 3
Betting trends
Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Oklahoma is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS off a home win this season.
Baylor is 5-0 ATS at home this season.
Baylor is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 following an over.
Statistical leaders
Oklahoma:
Passing: Spencer Rattler -- 1,438 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Kennedy Brooks -- 802 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Marvin Mimis -- 605 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Nik Bonitto -- 5 sacks
Baylor:
Passing: Gerry Bohanon -- 1,967 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Abram Smith -- 1,055 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Tyquan Thornton -- 722 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Dillon Doyle -- 61 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
