by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 13, 2021
Venue: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: NW +24, Wisconsin -24; Over/Under: 41 points
Bet365: Point Spread: NW +24, Wisconsin -24; Over/Under: 41 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: NW +24.5, Wisconsin -24.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
Northwestern Wildcats: 3-6 (6th place, Big Ten West)
Wisconsin Badgers: 6-3 (1st place, Big Ten West)
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Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Northwestern Wildcats: lost at home on Nov. 6 against the Iowa Hawkeyes 17-12.
Wisconsin Badgers: won on the road on Nov. 6 against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 52-3.
Northwestern Wildcats Analysis
Northwestern is coming into this game with a 3-6 record overall and they are 0-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 7th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 1-5 in their conference games this season. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games and they are coming into this one on a 3 game losing streak after another loss in their last game. Andrew Marty really struggled in their last game as he completed 25/44 passes for 270 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Evan Hull led the team in rushing with 41 yards on 11 carries. Hull also led the receivers with 89 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Malik Washington had 75 yards on 6 receptions. Chris Bergin led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while Bryce Gallagher was right behind with 9 solo tackles. Adetomiwa Adebawore and Jeffery Pooler Jr. both had the only sacks in that game with 1 each while no one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 164 points in their 9 games this season averaging 18.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 234 points against them allowing 26 PPG. Their offense is averaging 342.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 415.6 YPG.
Wisconsin Badgers Analysis
Wisconsin is coming into this game with a 6-3 record overall and they are 3-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 7th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 4-2 in their conference games this season. They are coming into this one on a 5 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Graham Mertz played well in their last game as he completed 11/16 passes for 240 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Braelon Allen had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 129 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 carries while Chez Mellusi had 75 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 carries. Jackson Acker also ran in 1 TD in that game as well. Kendric Pryor and Danny Davis III both led the receivers with 72 yards and 1 touchdown each while Pryor had 4 receptions and Davis did it all on 1 catch. John Chenal caught the other TD pass in that one. Faion Hicks led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Jack Sanborn had the only sack in that game for the defense with 1 while Noah Burks, Caesar Williams, and Jordan Turner all came away with 1 interception each in that one. They have scored 227 points in their 9 games this season averaging 25.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 139 points against them allowing 15.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 377.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 213.8 YPG.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin Prediction
Northwestern is coming into this game as a 24 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Northwestern played well in their last game losing to Iowa but only 12-7 in that game. Wisconsin is coming off of a massive win against Rutgers by over 40 points but Northwestern always plays their conference games tough and will keep this game closer. Wisconsin is a defensive team that runs the ball a lot and Northwestern does not have a bad defense. They will stay in this game and will not let Wisconsin pull away too much. The best bet to place in this game is on Northwestern to cover the spread here.
Northwestern Wisconsin Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 13, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Wisconsin 24 Northwestern 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Northwestern Wildcats: 184-164 ATS in all games. 17-14 ATS when the total is 42 or less. 122-95 ATS as an underdog. 65-44 ATS as a road underdog. 89-62 ATS in road games. 129-110 ATS against conference opponents.
Wisconsin Badgers: 18-13 O/U as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 158-147 O/U in all games. 122-98 O/U as a favorite. 73-56 O/U as a home favorite. 80-68 O/U in home games. 118-94 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Northwestern Wildcats: B. Kirtz (WR) out for season - Undisclosed injury. C. Porter (RB) out for season - Lower Body injury. Z. Franks (OL) out for season - Lower Body injury.
Wisconsin Badgers: S. Lytle (LB) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. C. Large (TE) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. H. Rucci (TE) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"I think there's some really gutty and gutsy and tough plays that he made. When you play the quarterback position, you look back and want some plays back. But I thought he responded really well to adversity." - Pat Fitzgerald on his team’s loss to Iowa in their last game.
"I can say about everyone on the team, guys are truly putting out during the week. We see the work that everybody puts in and it's getting to a special place. So got to keep building on it." - Graham Mertz on their win against Rutgers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Northwestern Wildcats
WR Washington, Malik
WR Jefferson, JJ
WR Stephon Robinson Jr.
TE Mangieri, Charlie
QB Hilinski, Ryan
RB Hull, Evan
Wisconsin Badgers
WR Pryor, Kendric
WR Davis III, Danny
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Mertz, Graham
RB Mellusi, Chez
FB Chenal, John
Statistical Leaders
Northwestern Wildcats
Passing: R. Hilinski (764)
Rushing: E. Hull (791)
Receiving: S. Robinson Jr. (489)
Touchdowns: E. Hull (5)
Wisconsin Badgers
Passing: G. Mertz (1289)
Rushing: C. Mellusi (815)
Receiving: D. Davis III (372)
Touchdowns: B. Allen (6)
Coaches:
Northwestern Wildcats: Pat Fitzgerald (16th season)
Wisconsin Badgers: Paul Chryst (7th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
