New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/01/2025

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, August 1, 2025

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  YES, FDSFL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -176, Marlins +144; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -165, Marlins +135; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Yankees -165, Marlins +135; Over/Under:  8 runs

New York Yankees:  59-49 (2nd place, AL East)

Miami Marlins:  52-55 (3rd place, NL East)

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New York Yankees:  5-5 last 10

Miami Marlins:  6-4 last 10

The Yankees lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1. They enter this game with a 59-49 record overall and have a road record of 26-27. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Rays still to be played on Thursday. The Yankees lost the series opener of that series on Monday, won the 2nd game on Tuesday, and won the 3rd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .785 OPS. Marcus Stroman is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 11-7 with a 3.18 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 3 HR, and 1 BB with 8 SO on 4 hits through 5.1 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-55 record overall and have a home record of 24-29. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .707 OPS. Cal Quantrill was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Janson Junk is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 5 strikeouts on 8 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked good in their games this season with their 59-49 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 26-27 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 52-55 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 24-29 home record this year. The Marlins have been the hotter team lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Yankees are only 5-5, but the Yankees do have the more reliable starter here and one of the best offenses in the MLB. Rodon is on the mound for the Yankees and he has looked great this season. He is 11-7 with a 3.18 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs at all. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him so he will be looking to bounce back with a better start and the team has still won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Marlins are going with Junk in this one and he has been anything but junk this year. He is 5-2 with a 3.28 ERA and the team has been having success with him lately. The Marlins have won 3 of the last 4 games that he started in, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and that could be an issue since this Yankees offense has been a lot better lately and will make them pay. Look for the Yankees to get the edge here as they try to turn on the jets now in the playoff race. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Yankees Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 1, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Yankees 5 Marlins 3.

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New York Yankees: 19-25 (-13.7 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 242-203 (-28 units) on the moneyline in all games. 66-69 (-28.8 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 29-17 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

Miami Marlins: 19-22 (+4 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 198-234 (+10.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 55-64 (+13.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 14-5 OVER at home against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees:  C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. A. Judge (RF) Ten Day IL - Flexor Strain. M. Leiter Jr. (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Fibular. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. R. Yarbrough (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Gil (SP) Sixty Day IL - Back. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Miami Marlins:  D. Hill (LF) Ten Day IL - Finger. J. Tinoco (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Norby (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“That obviously can’t happen. So you make sure with the base coaches we’re saying the right things -- go through the pitcher, their move, time to the plate, number of outs. So what do you say? It can’t happen.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the Rays in their game on Wednesday.

“Most proud of our ability to respond. I think that is something that as the year's gone along, that within games, within series, we just bounce back from whatever happens. And a really good sign this series with losing the last one in Milwaukee, not playing very well the first game here, to come back and put back-to-back shutouts and do a lot of little things very well. Again, speaks to that, and to win a number of games, continue to do what is required.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Cardinals in their game on Wednesday.

Ben Rice (L) C

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Cody Bellinger (L) CF

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Jasson Domínguez (S) LF

Austin Slater (R) RF

Ryan McMahon (L) 3B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Jesús Sánchez (L) RF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Kyle Stowers (L) DH

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Troy Johnston (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernandez (R) LF

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Dane Myers (R) CF

Batting Average:  Amed Rosario (1.000)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (129)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (37)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (85)

Stolen Bases:  Jasson Domínguez (16)

Wins:  Max Fried (12)

Saves:  Devin Williams (17)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Batting Average:  Rob Brantly (.429)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (108)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (23)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (63)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (17)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (6)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (10)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Managers:

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)