New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/30/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLBN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -126, Padres +104; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Padres +105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -125, Padres +105; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

New York Mets:  62-45 (1st place, NL East)

San Diego Padres:  58-49 (2nd place, NL West)

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New York Mets:  7-3 last 10

San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

The Mets are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-45 record overall and have a road record of 25-29. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Padres on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Mets lost the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Sean Manaea is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Clay Holmes is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 9-5 with a 3.40 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 2 SO on 6 hits through 5 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-49 record overall and have a home record of 32-18. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .696 OPS. Rookie pitcher Ryan Bergert is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts on 8 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked great in their games this season with their 62-45 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 25-29 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 58-49 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 32-18 home record. The Mets have been rolling in their games lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Padres are only 5-5. They have also had the much stronger offense this season and they have the better pitching matchup in this game too. Holmes is on the mound for the Mets here and he has looked good this season. He is 9-5 with a 3.40 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. The team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he is coming off a great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run and he won't have too much trouble against this Padres lineup that hasn't been putting up a ton of runs this season. The Padres are also going with Darvish in this one and he hasn't looked good in his few starts back from injury. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA this season and has been giving up quite a few runs in his few starts. He is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 8 earned runs and the team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting too. The Mets can take advantage of his recent struggles with that strong offense that has been solid all season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game. 

Mets Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 30, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Mets 7 Padres 4.

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New York Mets: 233-211 (-7.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 104-120 (-18.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 18-30 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season. 14-8 UNDER against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres: 53-41 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 69-74 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 29-23 (+8.3 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season. 29-21 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.

New York Mets:  M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Waddell (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. D. Nunez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Back. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It was really good to see Mark Vientos have the type of game he had today.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Monday.

“It’s a good time to be in this league. There’s some real, real amazing talent on display every night. He just made two of the best plays you’re going to see.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Monday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Juan Soto (L) RF

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jeff McNeil (L) CF

Mark Vientos (R) DH

Brett Baty (L) 2B

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Bryce Johnson (S) LF

Elias Díaz (R) C

Batting Average:  Starling Marte (.289)

Hits:  Francisco Lindor (107)

Home Runs:  Juan Soto (25)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (81)

Stolen Bases:  Francisco Lindor (17)

Wins:  Clay Holmes (9)

Saves:  Edwin Díaz (23)

ERA:  Rico Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.366)

Hits:  Manny Machado (124)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (19)

RBI:  Manny Machado (66)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (10)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (30)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:

New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)