by Rod Pearson
Monday, Jul 28, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: MLBN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Mets -114, Padres -106; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Mets -115, Padres -105; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Mets -115, Padres -105; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
New York Mets: 62-44 (1st place, NL East)
San Diego Padres: 57-49 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
New York Mets: 7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres: 5-5 last 10
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Mets are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-44 record overall and have a road record of 25-28. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Frankie Montas is their starting pitcher on Monday while Sean Manaea is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 2 hits through 5 IP against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Padres are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-49 record overall and have a home record of 31-18. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Monday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts on 8 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.
Mets vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have looked great in their games this season with their 62-44 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 25-28 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 57-49 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 31-18 home record. The Padres haven't looked great lately though, going 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have been hot lately. The Mets also have the better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that. The Mets are going with Manaea in this one and he has looked good in his few starts this season. He is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs since coming back from an injury. His team has still lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Padres are going with Darvish in this one and he is also making his way back from an injury, but he hasn't looked good at all in his few starts. He is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA and is coming off his worst start of the season. He gave up 8 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Mets have the more reliable starter here and they are also the hotter team with the better offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.
Mets Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 29, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Mets 5 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
New York Mets: 233-210 (-6.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 104-119 (-17.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 18-29 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season. 14-7 UNDER against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres: 52-41 (+7.7 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 69-74 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 74-56 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 29-20 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season.
Key Injuries
New York Mets: M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Waddell (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. D. Nunez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Back. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
San Diego Padres: M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“We’re a good team.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s win against the Giants in their game on Sunday.
“Relentless at-bats, adding on, two-out hits. Again, Manny set the example of what we want to see with runners in scoring position, having the right approach. Just a real team win today.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Cardinals in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Juan Soto (L) RF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Jeff McNeil (L) CF
Starling Marte (R) DH
Brett Baty (L) 2B
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Xander Bogaerts (R) DH
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Jose Iglesias (R) SS
Elias Díaz (R) C
Statistical Leaders
New York Mets
Batting Average: Starling Marte (.289)
Hits: Pete Alonso (105)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (25)
RBI: Pete Alonso (81)
Stolen Bases: Francisco Lindor (17)
Wins: Clay Holmes (9)
Saves: Edwin Díaz (23)
ERA: Rico Garcia (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Bryce Johnson (.361)
Hits: Manny Machado (122)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (19)
RBI: Manny Machado (66)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (22)
Wins: Nick Pivetta (10)
Saves: Robert Suarez (30)
ERA: Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)
Managers:
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
