by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, May 23, 2023
Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Mets +100, Cubs -120; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Mets +100, Cubs -120; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Mets +100, Cubs -120; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
New York Mets: 25-23 (2nd place, NL East)
Chicago Cubs: 20-26 (3rd place, NL Central)
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Recent Form
New York Mets: 7-3 last 10
Chicago Cubs: 3-7 last 10
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Preview and Analysis
The Mets are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak after completing the sweep in a 3-game series over the Cleveland Guardians in their last series. They enter this game with a 25-23 record overall and have a road record of 13-14. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Wednesday with the series opener still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .716 OPS. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Tylor Megill is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-2 with a 3.88 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Cubs are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak after losing their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 20-26 record overall and have a home record of 11-11. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Wednesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Drew Smyly is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Marcus Stroman is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 3-4 with a 3.05 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings played against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Mets vs Cubs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets haven't been great this season as they are off to a slow start, hovering right around the .500 mark with their record, but they still have a really good team that is going to win a lot of games this year and there is too much value in them here at the underdog price. Megill is starting for the Mets and he has been pitching very well in his starts this year but he has also been even better when playing in the underdog role. The Cubs have a really good offense but they haven't been scoring a ton of runs lately as they are in the middle of a bad slump while the Mets have been really hot lately, coming into this series on a winning streak. Their offense has been up and down this season but the Cubs are going with Stroman in this game and as good as he has been this season, he has been starting to regress in his last few starts as he is giving up more runs now. The Mets are playing well and their starter Megill has also been pitching well but even if he does give up some runs here, the Mets will have plenty of run support with their offense that has been getting hot lately and should have no issues putting the runs up on the Cubs here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.
Mets Cubs Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, May 24, 2023 (7:40 pm ET start time) is Mets 6 Cubs 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
New York Mets: 11-6 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 146-103 (+9.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 11-3 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. TYLOR MEGILL is 8-2 UNDER as an underdog of +100 or higher.
Chicago Cubs: 7-16 (-9.6 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 11-21 (-10.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 28-14 UNDER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5. 9-4 UNDER against NL East opponents.
Key Injuries
New York Mets: J. Quintana (SP) Mid July - Ribs. E. Uceta (RP) Early June - Ankle. J. Yacabonis (RP) Early June - Quadricep. T. Nido (C) Early June - Eye. T. Locastro (CF) Out indefinitely - Thumb. E. Hernandez (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. O. Narvaez (C) Mid June - Calf. S. Ridings (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. S. Coonrod (RP) Early June - Back. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.
Chicago Cubs: K. Hendricks (SP) Early June - Shoulder. C. Bellinger (CF) Early June - Knee. A. Sampson (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. B. Boxberger (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. C. Heuer (RP) Early June - Elbow. E. Roberts (RP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“He works hard, he’s got a track record and he’s healthy. What else would you do but trust that type of guy? It’s hard as we get older and sometimes the water takes a little longer to warm up. So I try to keep that in mind.” - Buck Showalter on Starling Marte after their double-header against the Guardians on Sunday.
“I don’t feel like we’re far off, but we have to be better.” - David Ross after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Brett Baty (L) 3B
Mark Canha (R) RF
Mark Vientos (R) DH
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
Chicago Cubs
Nico Hoerner (R) 2B
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Ian Happ (S) LF
Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
Mike Tauchman (L) CF
Christopher Morel (R) DH
Matt Mervis (L) 1B
Miles Mastrobuoni (L) 3B
Tucker Barnhart (L) C
Statistical Leaders
New York Mets
Batting Average: Michael Perez (.571)
Hits: Brandon Nimmo (53)
Home Runs: Pete Alonso (17)
RBI: Pete Alonso (41)
Stolen Bases: Starling Marte (12)
Wins: Tylor Megill (5)
Saves: David Robertson (8)
ERA: Edwin Uceta (0.00)
Chicago Cubs
Batting Average: Christopher Morel (.370)
Hits: Nico Hoerner (49)
Home Runs: Patrick Wisdom (12)
RBI: Patrick Wisdom (23)
Stolen Bases: Nico Hoerner (12)
Wins: Justin Steele (6)
Saves: Brad Boxberger (2)
ERA: Jeremiah Estrada (0.00)
Managers:
New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)
Chicago Cubs: David Ross (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
