New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/06/2023

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Thursday, July 6, 2023

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +115, D-Backs -135; Over/Under:  10 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +115, D-Backs -135; Over/Under:  10 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets +115, D-Backs -135; Over/Under:  10 runs

New York Mets:  39-46 (4th place, NL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  50-36 (1st place, NL West)

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New York Mets:  5-5 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  4-6 last 10

The Mets are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 39-46 record overall and have a road record of 19-27. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .721 OPS. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Carlos Carrasco is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-3 with a 5.94 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 6 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-36 record overall and have a home record of 24-21. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Tommy Henry is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ryne Nelson is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-4 with a 4.67 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7.1 innings played against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses in the MLB right now and they have been using that offense well as they also have the best record in the NL West. They are being chased down by the Dodgers and the Giants who have both been having good seasons so the D-Backs will be looking to take advantage of this struggling Mets team in this series. The Mets already took the series opener with Scherzer on the mound but they aren't going to have a pitching matchup as good as that one was. They have Carrasco starting in this game and he has been a mixed bag all season with a lot of bad starts under his belt and some good one sprinkled in there. He only gave up 2 runs in his last start but he has been so up and down all season that a really good offense like the Diamondbacks have will be enough to crack him open for some runs in this game. The Diamondbacks have Nelson starting and even though he had a rougher start to the season, he has been a lot better in his starts lately since he hasn't been giving up many runs at all. He hasn't been his best at home so far but he will continue to pitch well like he has been doing lately and will have a great start in his own ballpark, especially with the Mets having one of the weaker offenses in the MLB this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.

Mets Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 6, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 6 Mets 3.

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New York Mets: 39-46 (-22.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 19-27 (-14.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 20-12 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 7-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-36 (+17.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 36-24 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 36-22 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10. 23-17 UNDER in home games.

New York Mets:  J. Quintana (SP) Mid July - Ribs. S. Ridings (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. T. Locastro (CF) Mid July - Thumb. S. Coonrod (RP) Mid July - Back. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Kelly (SP) Late July - Calf. C. Sulser (RP) Mid July - Shoulder. M. Melancon (RP) Late July - Shoulder. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

“Solo home runs usually don't hurt you that much and that's kind of what Max did. And we had a couple of long home runs.” - Buck Showalter after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Tuesday.

“We grinded through it. We were a swing away from tying the game, a swing away from winning the game despite some really rugged circumstances that got us to that point.” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Tuesday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF

Tommy Pham (R) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Starling Marte (R) RF

Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Geraldo Perdomo (S) 2B

Jake McCarthy (L) RF

Corbin Carroll (L) LF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) DH

Emmanuel Rivera (R) 3B

Carson Kelly (R) C

Nick Ahmed (R) SS

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (90)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (25)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (58)

Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (22)

Wins:  Max Scherzer (8)

Saves:  David Robertson (12)

ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Batting Average:  Emmanuel Rivera (.309)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (87)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (18)

RBI:  Christian Walker (56)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (24)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (10)

Saves:  Andrew Chafin (8)

ERA:  Kevin Ginkel (2.59)

Managers:

New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)