New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/05/2023

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -150, D-Backs +130; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -150, D-Backs +130; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -150, D-Backs +130; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Mets:  38-46 (4th place, NL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  50-35 (1st place, NL West)

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New York Mets:  4-6 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Mets are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 38-46 record overall and have a road record of 18-27. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .719 OPS. Rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Max Scherzer is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 7-2 with a 3.87 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 9 Ks on 7 hits through 6 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-35 record overall and have a home record of 24-20. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Wednesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Zach Davies is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Tommy Henry is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA this season. His team won their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5.2 innings played against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have been hot this season with the best record in the NL West and they also have a really good offense that has been putting up a ton of runs in their games all year. The Mets have been a struggling team all season with a weak offense and have been terrible in their road games. They do have Scherzer on the mound here and he has been pitching well in his starts lately but he has also had some bad starts this year from time to time and he is due for another bad start in this road game with a red hot offense at the plate here. The D-Backs have Henry starting in this game and he has been really solid in his starts lately, not giving up many runs at all. The Mets haven't really had a good offense this season as they have struggled to put up runs in their games and they are going to struggle with Henry pitching so well as of late. Scherzer will not be able to keep them in this game if the Mets offense can't keep up with the D-Backs as the D-Backs will find ways to put up runs in this game since they have been crushing the ball all year. This is too much value for the Diamondbacks at home when the Mets have been such a bad road team all season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.

Mets Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 5, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 4 Mets 1.

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New York Mets: 38-46 (-23.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-27 (-15.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 18-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. MAX SCHERZER is 9-5 UNDER against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-35 (+18.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 36-23 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 20-12 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 23-16 UNDER in home games.

New York Mets:  J. Quintana (SP) Mid July - Ribs. S. Ridings (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. T. Locastro (CF) Mid July - Thumb. S. Coonrod (RP) Mid July - Back. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Kelly (SP) Late July - Calf. C. Sulser (RP) Mid July - Shoulder. M. Melancon (RP) Late July - Shoulder. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

“If I could share with you the communication and the late-night texts and stuff, he beats himself up because he takes on the responsibility of how much his teammates and the team depend on him.” - Buck Showalter after his team’s win against the Giants in their game on Sunday.

“I’ll probably be able to enjoy it a little bit after this. It’s bittersweet. We still lost. I didn’t do my job. But it’s my first All-Star selection, so I’ll try to enjoy it the best I can.” - Zac Gallen after their loss against the LA Angels in their game on Sunday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF

Tommy Pham (R) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Pete Alonso (R) DH

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Starling Marte (R) RF

Mark Canha (R) 1B

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Kyle Lewis (R) DH

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Carson Kelly (R) C

Dominic Fletcher (L) RF

Nick Ahmed (R) SS

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (89)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (25)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (58)

Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (21)

Wins:  Max Scherzer (7)

Saves:  David Robertson (11)

ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Batting Average:  Emmanuel Rivera (.311)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (87)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (17)

RBI:  Christian Walker (54)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (24)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (10)

Saves:  Andrew Chafin (8)

ERA:  Kyle Nelson (2.59)

Managers:

New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)