New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2023

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -115, D-Backs -105; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -115, D-Backs -105; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mets -115, D-Backs -105; Over/Under:  9 runs

New York Mets:  38-46 (4th place, NL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  50-35 (1st place, NL West)

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New York Mets:  4-6 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  5-5 last 10

The Mets are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 38-46 record overall and have a road record of 18-27. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .719 OPS. David Peterson was their starting pitcher on Sunday while rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 8 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off of a loss but won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-35 record overall and have a home record of 24-20. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Mets on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .762 OPS. Zac Gallen was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Zach Davies is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 3 strikeouts on 2 hits through 7 innings played against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Diamondbacks listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have been having a great season as they lead the NL West with the best record and also have one of the best offenses in the MLB. They were rolling over the weekend once again with another series win and now they come back home to face a struggling Mets team that has been terrible in their road games this year. The Mets also have Senga starting in this game and he has been really up and down in his starts all season as he is still in his rookie season, but he has also been giving up more runs in his road starts and that will be an issue with the way the D-Backs are hitting the ball lately. Meanwhile, the D-Backs have Davies starting here and even though he wasn't great at the start of the season, he has been pitching really well in his starts lately and has also been better in his home starts. The Mets have been struggling as a team all season and a big part of that has been their weak offense. They are going to struggle to put up runs here with Davies pitching a lot better now and the D-Backs will be looking to bounce back at home after almost sweeping the Angels over the weekend. The best way to place a bet here is on the Diamondbacks to win this game.

Mets Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 4, 2023 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Diamondbacks 5 Mets 2.

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New York Mets: 38-46 (-23.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-27 (-15.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 18-8 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 10-3 UNDER after a win by 4 runs or more.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-35 (+18.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 36-23 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 20-12 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 23-16 UNDER in home games.

New York Mets:  J. Quintana (SP) Mid July - Ribs. E. Hernandez (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. S. Ridings (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. T. Locastro (CF) Mid July - Thumb. S. Coonrod (RP) Mid July - Back. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  M. Kelly (SP) Late July - Calf. C. Sulser (RP) Mid July - Shoulder. M. Melancon (RP) Late July - Shoulder. C. Martin (SP) out for season - Shoulder.

“If I could share with you the communication and the late-night texts and stuff, he beats himself up because he takes on the responsibility of how much his teammates and the team depend on him.” - Buck Showalter after his team’s win against the Giants in their game on Sunday.

“I’ll probably be able to enjoy it a little bit after this. It’s bittersweet. We still lost. I didn’t do my job. But it’s my first All-Star selection, so I’ll try to enjoy it the best I can.” - Zac Gallen after their loss against the LA Angels in their game on Sunday.

Brandon Nimmo (L) CF

Tommy Pham (R) LF

Francisco Lindor (S) SS

Pete Alonso (R) DH

Jeff McNeil (L) 2B

Starling Marte (R) RF

Mark Canha (R) 1B

Brett Baty (L) 3B

Francisco Alvarez (R) C

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Kyle Lewis (R) DH

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Evan Longoria (R) 3B

Carson Kelly (R) C

Dominic Fletcher (L) RF

Nick Ahmed (R) SS

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Batting Average:  Michael Perez (.571)

Hits:  Brandon Nimmo (89)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (25)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (58)

Stolen Bases:  Starling Marte (21)

Wins:  Max Scherzer (7)

Saves:  David Robertson (11)

ERA:  Edwin Uceta (0.00)

Batting Average:  Emmanuel Rivera (.311)

Hits:  Ketel Marte (87)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (17)

RBI:  Christian Walker (54)

Stolen Bases:  Corbin Carroll (24)

Wins:  Zac Gallen (10)

Saves:  Andrew Chafin (8)

ERA:  Kyle Nelson (2.59)

Managers:

New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (7th season)