by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Mar 03, 2023
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Miami-Dade Arena, Miami, FL
Where to watch: BSSUN, MSG
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Knicks -2.5
FanDuel: Knicks -2
BetMGM: Knicks -2.5
Caesars: Knicks -1.5
Season record
Knicks: 37-27
Heat: 32-30
The All-Star break is over in the NBA and it's time to get on the horse and finish up the final home stretch of the season. Big trades, uncertainty, and absolute hilarity across the board all gearing up for the final home stretch of this season. You know who is also gearing up for the home stretch? Our champion handicappers at bigal.com who are ready to win their way all the way to the playoffs. There's a lot going on that we can't wait for in these final 23-25 games and you're going to need every bit of hardcore analysis you can get from this group. Just in the last 30 days we've had some big winners. Doc's Sports has posted a 16-6-0 record in the last month (+$9,200). AAA Sports has killed it at 17-8-0, and then Al McMordie with a dominant 20-11-1 mark over the last 30 days. Everything you need to know and more about what's going on this league and sports in general will be a fun finish to the end. All you have to do is go to bigal.com and find our Best Bets page and put forth something that only you think is good. Here's a hint: Go to the bigal.com website and happy betting!
Knicks - Heat preview, prediction and analysis
The New York Knicks can’t lose. They may not ever lose again. Not that I think that’s possible in a run with 20 games or so remaining, but that’s the life and times of being a Knicks team that has expectations suddenly. New York will try to make it eight straight on Friday when they visit the Miami Heat on Friday.
The Knicks had one of their better games on Wednesday, beating the Brooklyn Nets 142-118 behind a game-high 39 points from Jalen Brunson — 30 of them came in the first half. Not only that, but he went 15 of 18 from the floor, added six assists and five rebounds. Brunson reminded people yet again that he should’ve been an All-Star.
"I like where we are in the season, in terms of we know intensity is different now, so we have to respond accordingly," Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau said of his team climbing up to fifth in the East and are now just 1.5 games back of the Cleveland Cavaliers for fourth. "This should bring out the best in us."
It’s been a big year for the Knicks’ star duo. Brunson is averaging nearly 24 points and six assists per game in the first year of his max deal. Wonder if the Dallas Mavericks regret doing that, albeit Kyrie Irving is pretty fun, too. But it’s also Julius Randle averaging 25 points and 10.5 rebounds a night, good enough to be an All-Star for the second time in three seasons.
The Knicks, who are favored by 2 in this one, are on one hell of a streak of seven straight unbeaten against the spread and 8-1-1 in the last 10. The only loss was their last loss; 7-point underdogs in the 119-108 loss in Philly on Feb. 10.
But you have to wonder how this Heat squad, which has had a rough go the last number of weeks. Miami seemed to be back on track after a win, but then lost 119-96 to the 76ers, who did not have Joel Embiid. Jimmy Butler left the game in the fourth quarter due to a sprained knee and his status is questionable. Kyle Lowry hasn’t played in 10 games due to a knee injury of his own.
The Heat are 3.5 games back of these Knicks, so there’s plenty of time to catch up. Especially with the Nets faltering. But they can’t afford to continue to let this chance slip.
"This has felt like the playoffs for the past three weeks," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "But as competitors, you have to love that."
The Heat have dropped five of six against the spread, as well as outright. They were even favored by 3.5 against Philly because the baseball series tends to know all, but not in this situation.
Prediction
If Butler can’t go, that’s a big blow for Miami. They can’t keep dropping games like this, but this also feels like easy pickings for the Knicks on the road. If Brunson and Randle keep playing like this, who’s going to stop them? Knicks 118, Heat 105
Betting trends
Knicks are 18-13 ATS as a favorite this season.
Knicks are 54-29 ATS in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons.
Heat are 8-20 ATS at home this season.
Heat are 6-16 ATS after losing 2 of 3 this season.
Projected starting lineup
Knicks:
PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Quentin Grimes
SF: RJ Barrett
PF: Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson
Heat:
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Max Strus
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo
Injury report
Knicks: None
Heat: Jimmy Butler (knee, questionable), Kyle Lowry (knee, out)
Knicks: None
Heat: Jimmy Butler (knee, questionable), Kyle Lowry (knee, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
